CLSA Fengshui Index 2025

 Again, it is CLSA yearly fun Fengshui Index 2025. Good to serve as a guidance to all.

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2025/ 

Are they accurate? I dont think so, look at their own historcial track record here:

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2025/?section=previous-years

Wise words from Howard Marks

 Wise words from Howard Marks

Average S&P 500 Return by Zodiac Year

 Visualized: Average S&P 500 Return by Zodiac Year 🐍

https://lnkd.in/gqDUpKja

Someone shared this earlier and projected a crash in 2025-2026. Will this be true?

Malaysia's Golden Era- the 80s. Will it repeat this time?

In my opinion, Malaysia's golden era was during late 80s to mid of 90s. I still recall almost every Malaysian have a good success story to tell then.

1. GDP was growing at high single-digit number to marginally 10% during this period of time, I believe with such growth consistently 8-9 years, a lot of SMEs had taken off successfully.

2. EPF returns were also amazingly high during that period of time, ranging 7.5% - 8.25% then.

3. Local stock markets seemed to be doing extremely well as you can see in 2nd graph, though the volatility were also scary at the same time.

6/58 Jackpot, will it hit RM100million soon?

The recent frenzy run has caused the whole town discussing on the jackpot, which hit around RM93 million now (and sure the business is really good at Berjaya Toto). I wonder if it will hit the all time high of above RM100 million soon.

If you guys are not aware, the jackpot hit at high previously on 4 April 2022, almost 3 years back at RM97.75million if I'm not mistaken.

What was the number then?

5, 12, 20, 22, 29, 41.

I would not want to encourage gambling, but what strategy one can play from here is more of the discussion I want to discuss on:

1. Do your home work. If you are not already aware, you can actually do your statistics studies via ToTo own website. Download them from txt file and convert into your excel spreadsheets.

Here: https://www.sportstoto.com.my/results_download.asp

2. Do your statistic studies, or with help of ChatGpt which is even more convenient nowadays. If you remove certain numbers set, your probability actually improve according to your condition given, pure maths, which your chatgpt can help simulate

3. Choose your game. 6/58 can actually be played in 3 ways: normal 6 number picking, or system bet which you're allowed to pick up to 15 numbers, if 6 hit, walah, you get the jackpot, or ezbet play, where you pay lesser on picking up to 15 numbers, but the payout will be in ratio, for example 1/35 if you choosen 15 numbers, hence payout lower with cost of only RM286

Last but not least, actually the latest results there is a winner already whom pick 6 digits successfully, but via ezbet, hence payout still small compared to RM90million.

Rate Cut and S&P 500

Is Rate Cut good or bad for the S&P 500 Index return? Perhaps we should assess the situation in certain time horizon to look at each cycle, prior deploying a strategic move for short term targets.

Rate Cut or No, SPX inched higher in long run (at least for 40 years now from 1984 to 2024)

Malaysia GDP 2025 to be above 5%

Malaysia’s growth is set to sustain last year’s pace and exceed 5% in 2025, as strong foreign direct investments and support from local funds shield the economy from any global risks, Second Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan tells Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin in an exclusive interview in Kuala Lumpur.

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wexTT0GSgqs

Why Market drop? Fed just said they will pivot again in last FOMC meeting

Yes, you guess it again, U.S economy is much stronger than expected, no sign of slowing down.

If you'd followed latest progress, market is thinking a likely 1 cut or NO cut at all for 2025. Market is fast in readjusting this expectation.

The market is pricing in just ONE Fed rate cut for 2025. This is down from nearly 5 rate cuts expected in September

Great Chart: @AugurInfinity, Global Markets Investor

2024 KLSE i3 Forum stockpick results

I did not snap pic my picks in 2024 stockpick competition, but here set a record for my own.

I ranked 25/78, as usual, always near top 30 and above average. Not a bad return at 20% compared to KLCI Index of around 13%. 

source: https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/stock_pick_2024/2024-12-31-story-h496982491-Stock_Pick_Year_2024_31_Dec_Result

My pick back in 2024:

lesson learnt for 2024, do not be over optimistic in near term recovery of tech related sector although global semi conductor recovered. Recovery at local market could be a mixed bag also. D&O was really a surprise to me how it pen out as I expect it to recover since 2023 end. A hard lesson there.