Showing posts with label MSC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MSC. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

DECEMBER 2016 TIN PRICES

DATEUSDRMEXCHANGE RATETURNOVER
121,00093,8494.469035
221,15094,1494.451535
521,05093,7364.453043
621,20094,2704.446736
721,05093,4094.437530
821,05093,3004.432328
921,05093,1614.425727
12CLOSEDCLOSEDCLOSEDCLOSED
1321,10093,4144.427246
1421,23094,2804.440937
1521,15094,4394.465242
1621,20094,8704.475039
1921,17094,8104.478539
2020,95093,7934.477050
2120,95093,8254.478539
2220,90093,5504.476142
2320,80093,1224.477060
26CLOSEDCLOSEDCLOSEDCLOSED
2720,80093,1364.477728
2820,800N.Y.AN.Y.A58
Source : The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM)
N.Y.A : Not Yet Available
The Exchange rate are from MSC's daily bank rates

Friday, November 25, 2016

Better times seen for MSC this year

Lets remind ourselves again
THE sharp recovery in the global tin prices is a boon for tin miner and metal producer, Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC).

Its share price in recent months has been on an uptrend touching a high of RM3.26 on Sept 8 from a low of RM2.21 on Feb 3 before settling two sen higher at RM3.20 on Thursday.
Year-to-date, the price of tin has risen by over 30%. The metal is currently trading at US$19,200-US$19,270 per tonne range on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM).
According to industry observers, the fortunes of MSC are set to take a turn for the better this year after experiencing a 6-1/2 year slump in global tin prices.
 
Since early this year, tin has climbed steadily following declining supplies from the world’s top producing countries China and Indonesia.
The LME tin stocks in its warehouses are also depleting, down by 20% to about 4,460 tonnes in September from a month earlier.
MSC is the world’s second largest tin mining and smelting group with an annual refined tin production of over 30,000 tonnes.
It has an international smelting operation in Butterworth and tin mining operation is managed by its subsidiary Rahman Hydraulic Tin Sdn Bhd (RHT).
With tin prices improving, MSC chief executive officer, Chua Cheong Yong (pic) is optimistic that MSC international smelting plant and RHT mines are expected to perform satisfactorily and will generate strong cash flows for the current financial year ending Dec 31.
“While the overall refined tin production is not likely to change much, profit margin, especially on the mining side, will see some expansion in the environment of higher tin prices,” he adds.
Chua tells StarBizWeek: “We will continue to subscribe to the commodity price cycles model and, in our view, the main challenge for any resource based industry is to be able to build a business model and structure that will be resilient enough to ride through these cycles.”
“The current rally for tin is more supply driven rather than demand related. While tin demand is currently stable, the growth potential is expected to be realised only in the mid-term scenario as tin use in energy related industrial applications, particularly in the battery sector, gathers momentum.
Chua says MSC has been resilient to withstand the severe down cycle, particularly in 2015, which caused significant operating losses and large asset impairments by major global mining and commodity trading companies alike.
The management’s initiatives last year at implementing cost-cutting measures and being frugal in expenditure have strengthened the Group.
“Despite the difficult and challenging market environment in 2015 our core operations, were able to achieve commendable performances and the Group’s cash and liquidity positions have continued to remain strong.”
MSC’s financial position continues to be healthy as the operations generated strong cash flows of RM90.8mil in the first half of 2016.
In June this year, MSC has proposed to acquire Metal Reclamation Industries Sdn Bhd (MRI) through its wholly-owned subsidiary MSmelt Sdn Bhd for RM50mil in cash.
Chua says: “Therefore, the company’s current year focus will be to complete the acquisition by fourth quarter of this year.”
“As a result we will not, in the near term, be actively seeking for new tin investments opportunities.”
Chua explains further that one of the current company’s priorities is to complete the MRI acquisition and then to adapt and convert the MRI plant for tin smelting and integrate it into the group’s international tin smelting operations.
The MRI plant, which is located in Pulau Indah, possesses the new generation smelting technology which is a more comprehensive and efficient smelting process as compared to MSC Group’s smelting facility in Butterworth.
Besides more superior cost and operating parameters, the new technology is also better suited to address the increasingly stringent environmental requirements.
He also says: “We believe this technology will propel MSC Smelting Division into a more sustainable and competitive custom smelting force in the global tin industry.”
For Rahman Hydraulic Tin , the exploration programme to expand the mine’s resource base is ongoing, says Chua adding that: “We hope to be able to complete the programme in the near term. These priorities should keep us busy at least for the next couple of years.”
Having said that, Chua adds the group will still continue to invest in its future, even at times when (tin) prices are low.
Besides ongoing exploration programmes to expand the group’s tin resources, MSC has also participated in the private placement of Alphamin Resources Corp in 2015 to increase its equity interest in the company to 5%.
Alphamin is a Toronto Venture Exchange listed developer of the Bisie project, a very high grade tin prospect located in Democratic Republic of Congo.
“We believe the small entry investment will provide MSC Group with favourable and interesting growth opportunities when the cycle turns.”
“The movement in commodity prices, the stability of the local currency and any major policy adjustments in the advanced and emerging economies will continue to have impact on the group performances in today’s challenging macroeconomic environment,” adds Chua.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Tin Prices Seen Extending Climb as Global Shortages to Last

Bloomberg) -- Tin, which has surged more than 40 percent this year, is set to keep advancing amid continued shortages because supply is not coming on fast enough, according to Peter Kettle, chief analyst at research group ITRI Ltd.
Prices may rise to about $30,000 a metric ton in 2018-2019, Kettle said at an industry conference in Shanghai, an increase of 42 percent from the level now. The market will have a deficit of 10,000 tons to 15,000 tons this year and a similar shortfall in 2017, he said on Tuesday. Tin is among the top picks for researcher CRU Group next year, said Susan Gao, head of consulting in China.
Tin, used for soldering in electronics, has gained to the highest level in more than two years, and is the best performer after zinc on the London Metal Exchange in 2016. Top shipper Indonesia has curbed exports and inventories in sheds tracked by the LME have slumped to the lowest since 2004. Tin and zinc are “the standout stories in terms of structural supply constraints capable of tightening the market,” Standard Chartered Plc said last month.
“We’re in a very long-term trend of declining stockpiles,” Kettle said. “If stocks fall much further, we will get to a critical point that prices could go much higher than the medium-term equilibrium” of about $22,500 a ton, he said. ITRI is a U.K.-based company which supports the industry and helps to expand the metal’s use. The group is backed by producers and smelters.
Shipments by Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, plunged to 52,617 tons in the first 10 months of this year, the lowest for the period in at least a decade, from 61,713 tons a year earlier, Trade Ministry data show. Global supply trailed demand by 20,500 tons in the first eight months of 2016, according to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. LME-tracked stockpiles have fallen by more than half since May.
Refined output in the country may drop to about 60,000 tons this year, Jabin Sufianto, head of the Association of Indonesia Tin Exporters, said in September. That compares with 67,350 tons in 2015 and would be the lowest since 2002, according to WBMS data. Kettle said on Tuesday that Indonesian supply will be about 60,000 tons in the medium term.
While Indonesia’s production has been hurt by rains and mining regulations, it could be 60,000 tons to 70,000 tons this year and may rise slightly in 2017 if the weather improves, Riza Pahlevi Tabrani, president director of top producer PT Timah, said in an interview. Timah’s shares have more than doubled in 2016 and reached the highest in two years this month.
Prices above $22,500 are needed in the medium term to spur the supply required to balance moderate growth in demand, said Tom Mulqueen, an ITRI analyst. While Bolivian production is set to rise, output in China, Indonesia and Peru is faltering, he said. Tin for delivery in three months time added 1.2 percent to $21,100 on the LME by 10:48 a.m. in London on Tuesday.
Along with tin, Gao from CRU said at the conference that crude oil, nickel and zinc were also among her top choices for next year and that commodity prices overall were poised to rise further.
(Updates to add comment in penultimate paragraph.)
©2016 Bloomberg L.P.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

November Tin price

NOVEMBER 2016 TIN PRICES 
DATEUSDRMEXCHANGE RATETURNOVER
120,65086,5194.189835
220,80087,4224.203029
320,75087,0054.193045
421,15088,8934.203028
721,53090,7274.214051
822,00092,6864.213041
921,70091,3244.208528
1021,70092,2904.253035
1121,60092,4164.278541
1421,35092,4354.329564
1521,00091,1824.342042
1620,05087,3184.355055
1720,05087,9594.387022
1820,100N.Y.AN.Y.A31
http://www.mtpma.org.my/index.php/statistic/2014-07-07-04-56-57

Friday, November 4, 2016

Global Tin Market

Tin solder is the largest end-use sector now accounting for 48% of global demand. The demand for tin solder is driven by substitution for lead solder and growth in demand for consumer electronics. Lower growth in consumer electronics and thrifting have reduced solder’s market share from 54% at the peak in 2010 to 48% in 2014.
t1
Demand 2010
Demand 2014

Lead-acid batteries, the fastest growing end-use, represented 7% of the market in 2014. Chemical uses are also growing rapidly rising to 16% in 2014.
Tinplate for food cans was the second largest end-use in 2010. However, greater growth in other sectors have reduced its market share to 15% in 2014.
China is now the largest consumer of tin due to rapid growth in electronics manufacturing – it accounts for 35% of the global market.
Global tin demand is 365,000 tonnes or $9 billion dollars at a long-term price of US$25,000 per tonne.
Primary tin production at 290,000 tonnes has failed to meet demand for several years with growth in secondary supply to 75,000 tonnes required to bridge the gap.
China and Indonesia are the largest primary producers of tin accounting for 67% of global production. Both countries are likely to face declining supply due to falling grade and rising costs. Other established producers in South America and Africa face similar issues.
world map
Declining stocks suggest that secondary may not grow fast enough to meet demand growth and cover the loss of primary supply.
New production from the Heemskirk Tin Project and other proposed tin developments is required to help bridge the supply-demand gap in the future.
Rising London Metal Exchange tin prices reflect the need for new sources of supply.
tin-prices
tin-exports
chinese-tin-imports

Monday, October 31, 2016

A follow up on MSC.

Many might have overlooked this news. Beside steels, tin production in China is actually going through process of de_overcapacity.
http://cn.reuters.com/article/home-tin-idCNKCS0V30TX





撰稿/Andy Home
路透伦敦1月22日 - 中国的主要锡生产商已加入到减产的潮流中来,宣布今年将把产量减少1.7万吨。
就像中国其他基本金属生产商的减产声明一样,表面上看这是自律行为,但实际上它或许没那么简单。
但减产若得到落实,将有助于进一步收紧锡市。早在最近这波大宗商品价格跌势之前,锡市就已经面临结构性的供应问题。
锡市的紧俏表现为,伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库的锡库存长期处于低位,结果导致近月价差持续面临着压力。
**减产实为求救**
据国际锡研究协会(ITRI)称,中国是最大的锡生产国,承诺减产的九家锡生产商的产量合计相当于中国总产量的约80%和全球产量的40%。
1.7万吨的减产规模等于在2015年锡产量基础上减少12%,相当于全球产量的4-5%。
但是,跟中国其他金属商宣布的协作减产举动一样,锡生产商这么做实际上是在向中央政府求救。
根据这九家厂商的说法。锡价“已与基本面相背离”,潜台词就是“目前锡价低迷不是我们的错,这是投机者造成的。”
面对这种市场不理性,厂商呼吁政府对锡进行战略收储。
而这才是上述声明的真正用意。
从目前北京与中国金属冶炼厂之间的搏弈来看,似乎是若要让政府救助,那么行业整体上必须减产能。
但一个明确的推论就是,中国锡冶炼商坐拥大量的未售库存。
考虑到已经存在的产出下滑,这说明了作为全球最大锡消费国的需求状况有多差。
的确,锡使用正面临自身的结构性挑战,即焊料微型化。而据国际锡研究协会(ITRI),去年锡需求萎缩幅度估计略超3%。
这显然已经导致了中国国内市场的过剩,其中一部分已在过去几个月输往国际市场,不过是以一种未在中国贸易数据上体现的方式。
浏览印尼锡出口量图表,请点选(tmsnrt.rs/1WAgydZ)
**印尼出口仍在下滑**
讽刺的是,全球市场可能真的需要一些这种中国非正式的锡出口。
因为印尼的出口供应持续下滑。印尼是全球第二大产锡国,但却是最大的锡出口国。
根据印尼贸易部的出口公证检验资料,去年印尼的锡出口量降至70,154吨,低于2014年的75,927吨。这是连续第三年出口下滑,而且2016年只可能继续这个趋势。
锡出口的减少,是受到两个因素的联合作用,一是因为印尼政府逐步取缔邦加岛及勿里洞岛上的独立产锡商势力,一是锡的低价格。
值得注意的是,印尼商品及衍生品交易所(ICDX)几乎毫无成交,这个交易所实质上设有一个最低价格机制。
对于所有锡出口必须在ICDX交易后才能出口的规定貌似有所放松,因为尽管LME的锡价格徘徊在六年低点附近,该国照样有锡出口。
不过ICDX缺乏成交的事实显示,价格压力正在打击印尼锡生产商,其中许多都是小型私营公司。
在印尼之外的全球地区,在锡矿石品级下滑的情况下,其他大型锡产商多数都是采取以不变应万变。
近几年唯一重大的新增供应来源是缅甸,而缅甸的全部锡产量都运往中国,以弥补中国矿产量下滑。
综合作用的结果就是,虽然锡需求持续萎缩,供应萎缩速度可能更快。
**库存低,价差紧**
这股供应动能萎缩的影响明显见诸于伦敦市场。LME去年库存减少49%,或5,995吨,而目前的可交易库存(Open tonnage)为4,890吨,从任何过往水准来看都是偏低的。
上海期交所在2015年3月推出锡合约以来,也没有太多锡进入上期所仓库。目前总注册库存仅有696吨。
值得注意的是,尽管近月合约价差益发收紧,LME库存仍维持在低水平。近月价差有好几个月时间在正逆价差之间反覆来回,但却未能吸引够多的金属让LME库存显着回升。
本周,价差再次出现收紧,指标LME现货/三个月期货价差周四收报每吨逆价差45美元。
市场盛传这是因为出现一个大型多仓。LME回溯前两日的仓位报告尚未反映出这一点,但鉴于库存如此之低,显然LME报告上也未必需要出现一个超大仓位才能有如此效果。
此外,未来三个主要月度交割日期的仓位分布高度密集<0#LME-FBR>。2月合约有四笔空仓将与四笔多仓对决,其中一笔多仓规模相当大,占30-40%的未平仓合约,相当于2,800-3,700吨。
这意味着未来可能有更多价差收紧的情况;在LME库存回升之前,逆价差仍将是伦敦锡市的一大特色。
**既是好消息,也是坏消息**
在这种全球整体情势下,中国承诺的减产,对锡价而言好坏参半。
好消息是如果中国减产数量符合承诺,虽然可能性有点低,那么这将解决掉全球供应链之中那个明显有供应过剩的环节。
因为其他任何地区几乎都没有供应过剩的迹象。
而在当前环境下,供应控制被视为价格相对表现强弱的关键决定因素,因此锡的条件便优于其他工业金属。
坏消息则是,中国生产商手上仍有大量未售出库存的意涵。否则他们为什么会要求政府开始收储?
因此未来几个月,只要上海--伦敦套利交易有利可图时,就有可能出现更多中国那种定位模糊的锡出口,如同去年第四季的情况。
在中国政府的协助下囤积锡,或许会化解出现更多中国锡出口悄悄外流的迫切风险,但并未真正解决上海锡价偏低的根本原因。
而减产会有效果,但中国当局会向中国产锡商要求多大程度的减产配合,作为伸出援手的交换条件,仍有待观察。(完)
(编译/审校 白云/王洋/李婷仪/陈宗琦/龚芳/高琦/蔡美珍/刘秀红)