放眼2013 财年业绩更亮眼 顶级手套派息率升至50%

顶级手套冀望2013财年同样交出亮眼成绩单。左起为李金谋、林伟才和林将源。

（吉隆坡16日讯）顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）提高股息派发率目标至50%，并在市场需求与销量涨升的加持下，放眼2013财年首季表现更亮眼。

顶级手套执行董事林将源指出，集团2012财年第四季建议派终期股息9仙，加上中期股息7仙，共计全年股息16仙，等同于2012财年净利约50%。

林将源说，顶级手套过往维持40%的股息派发率，随着业绩表现优异，接下来将调升股息派发率目标至50%。

林将源在今天举行的媒体与分析员汇报会后如是表示顶级手套主席丹斯里林伟才则说，随着市场需求增加，公司产量也已提高10至15%，估计销量会以同样升幅增长。目前，集团生产线使用率介于75%至80%。

4工厂面对水供问题

“各国医疗和餐饮领域需求，加上人口增加，相信手套使用量将增加，特别是丁腈（nitrile）手套……因此，2013财年首季销量将比2012财年第四季高。”

另一方面，林伟才透露，目前雪兰莪4间工厂面对水供问题，连带影响生产。

尽管雪兰莪州务大臣和州政府都声明一切受控，即没有水供短缺且不需要建设冷岳河第二滤水站，但仍有不少公司受到水供短缺影响。

顶级手套2012财年全年净利按年跃升78.8%至2亿221万令吉，营业额更增加12.68%至23亿1435万8000令吉，写下有史以来最佳销量。

资本开销2亿 不排除再收购

林将源表示，集团2013财年资本开销将近2亿令吉，分别来自内部融资和目前现金流，不会选择贷款。

截至今年8月，集团拥有3亿850万令吉净现金。

顶级手套董事经理李金谋指出，继宣布收购GMP Medicare私人有限公司，公司不排除再收购国内外上市或非上市手套公司。

“目前仍有有不少收购机会。过去几个月，我们也看到印尼市场浮现机会，一些手套制造业者停业。这是一个正面讯息。

全球市占上看30%

“就大马市场而言，随着市场继续整合，我们也一直物色任何机会。无论如何，我们还是决定谨慎行事。”

顶级手套稍早前宣布，15年内拨出30亿令吉增设约30至40间新厂房，其中将投资自动化设备。

林伟才确认，明年初旬完成全自动化后，估计将能减少1000名普通员工，以降低最低薪金制的影响。

集团目前全球市占率约23至24%，随着估计市场将逐年增长10至15%，集团有信心到了2015年、2016年时全球手套市场市占率将达30%。

不竞购利得股份

顶级手套认为，奥地利公司Semperit AG控股早前宣布全面收购利得股份（Latexx，7064，主板工业产品股）対领域和顶级手套来说都是好事，不排除国内更多公司成为收购对象。

不过，林伟才回应利得股份被全面献购提问时表示，手套市场供需必须平衡，如果Semperit AG增加产量，必定影响供需。

就手套市场展望而言，李金谋不排除国内会有更多公司成为收购对象，主要是越来越多业者透过并购拓展。

李金谋仍然把上述收购案看作良性竞争，并以跨国设厂前辈身份点出，SemperitAG要来马营运绝对不容易。

Semperit AG目前还是顶级手套客户，双方仍会维持良好关系。

李金谋回应媒体追问是否提出竞购献议（counter offer）利得股份时断然排除此可能性。

需求走强成本趋跌 手套业下半年业绩看涨

由于需求持续走强、原料价格趋跌，加上美元汇率没有剧贬，分析员因而预测，我国手套公司在下半年的业绩将大幅攀升。

MIDF研究指出，基于手套领域出现的利好因素，因此，把整体评级上修至“正面”。

“由于乳胶和丁腈的价格下滑，持续增加的市场需求以及相对走强的美元，我们预测，手套公司在2012上半年的盈利将会大幅上涨。”

根据统计局的数据，我国手套出口在7月份出口量达4万6052吨，按年增长11.8%，而在首7个月，出口量也增长10.9%，至30万9061吨。

至于手套出口值，7月份时增加了6.6%至9.24亿令吉，而首7个月，则达到60.8亿令吉，按年增长9.2%。

分析员指出，根据过去数年的记录，手套需求量的年度增长率平均为8%，因此，预测这种涨幅将会持续。

3利好支撑

此外，支撑手套需求的3大因素，包括了：

1.乳胶和丁腈价格下滑，促使售价下跌。

2.迎合更高的保健标准，新兴市场的需求持续攀升。

3.保健领域的使用量，成为手套产品的固有需求。

在2011年，全球的手套需求量达到1500亿只，其中的61%是由大马公司供应。

分析员预测，我国业者将继续占据最大的市场份额。

分析员维持手套领域“正面”的评级，所有手套股的评级也维持“买入”，不过，顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）则除外。

分析员说，由于顶级手套股价在过去几个月已大幅攀升，因此，“买入”的评级目前正检讨中。

不过，分析员也强调，根据目前的市价为基准，所有手套股的股价在未来的12个月，仍然有很大的上涨潜能。

乳胶价高峰回落

目前，乳胶价格已经从1年的高峰时期回落33.3%，也从2012年的最高点下滑了26.8%，目前处于每公斤5.82令吉。

乳胶价格下滑，主要是因为在中国经济放缓之际，下游轮胎业的需求减少。

中国是全球最大的橡胶消费国。

分析员预测，乳胶价格在未来几个月每公斤将介于5.50至6.50令吉之间，这对手套业者有利。

基本上，乳胶成本占了手套业者总生产成本的60%。

虽然乳胶成产国———大马、泰国、印尼，都设法抑制乳胶价格下跌，然而，分析员认为不会有太大的作用，因为价格最终将会由市场力量决定。

另外，丁腈的价格在过去几个月也一样滑落，由于世界主要经济体没有明显的复苏迹象。

因此，价格估计也将继续疲弱。

至于美元汇率方面，由于第三波量化宽松（QE3）的效果尚不明朗。

因此，预测在中期里会处于1美元兑3令吉水平。

因此，分析员认为，美元走弱腐蚀手套业者盈利的风险并不大。

胶乳价看跌 手套商受惠

虽然全球三大树胶生產国降低出口，提振胶价，但由于中国的需求放缓，分析员相信胶乳价格仍会保持在低水平，天然胶手套商將从中受惠。

泰国农业部副部长週四指出，全球三大树胶生產国，泰国、大马以及印尼，同意减低树胶出口30万公吨，以协助扶持走跌的树胶价格。同时，將砍伐1万6000公顷的树胶地，减少供应过剩。

这两个举措，將会导致45万公吨，或占总全球3%比重的天然胶供应减少。这是三国第二次联手削减出口，提振胶价。

透过全球的共同努力，艾芬投行分析员认为，这三大树胶生產国（占总天然胶生產70%）的联合行动將影响胶价。

9时05分，东京大宗商品交易1月份期货，大涨5.1%至每公斤222.7日圆，为8月8日以来的最高。不过，分析员认为，来自中国的树胶需求预期放缓，以及汽车领域疲软，胶价將保持在低水平。中国是全球最大的天然树胶消费国。

截至週四，胶乳价格从2月份的每公斤7.96令吉高水平，大跌34%至每公斤5.27令吉。

供过于求与胶乳价格下跌，是胶手套製造商的福音。胶乳成本降低滯后反映在售价上，將有助于提升赚幅。分析员认为，主要受惠者是以生產天然胶手套为主的业 者，如顶级手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工业股）、速柏玛（SUPERMX，7106，主板工业股）以及高產尼品（KOSSAN，7153，主板 工业股）。

同时，近期美元兑令吉走强，也对胶手套製造商有利。

无论如何，隨著胶乳价格的跌势超越分析员的预测（年初至今平均价格每公斤7.07令吉），分析员將调高盈利预测。

现阶段，分析员维持该领域「中和」的投资评级。

顶级15年投资30亿建30间厂

顶级手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工业股）主席丹斯里林伟才声言，该集团计划在未来15年投资30亿令吉扩建。

这家全球最大的树胶手套生產商，要透过先进高科技生產设施、投资研发、上游、下游活动，来进一步提高產能。

这项投资已获得首相署关键绩效与传递单位（PEMANDU）的认可，並归纳为经济转型计划（ETP）的先行计划（EPP）。林伟才表示，在未来15年將投资30亿令吉建设30间厂房，计划每年建造两间。

林伟才是在今天出席顶级手套新办公楼的动土仪式后，发表以上谈话。

该集团邀请莎阿南市市长拿督莫哈末嘉法为顶级手套大厦主持动土仪式，陪同出席者还包括顶级手套董事经理李金谋、执行董事林將源、潘斯里董秀美。

顶级手套大厦佔地2英亩，坐落在莎阿南实达城购物中心（Setia City Mall）附近，同时也非常靠近巴生中路（Meru）的18间手套製造厂和港口设施。

该集团计划建筑23层楼的绿色建筑认证大厦，包括14层楼办公室、2层楼零售店及2层楼停车场，预计在2014年12月竣工。

打造世界级企业办公楼

林伟才表示，「我们要把顶级手套大厦建设成世界级企业办公楼，在实达城提供优等及绿色建筑认证大厦。完工后，我们要集中所有主要管理人员，来加强沟通和营运效率。」

他补充，顶级手套大厦是一栋结合最新环保技术的办公楼，管理层希望达到绿色建筑认证金奖。

林伟才说，此项目的推出也符合该集团在未来10年扩大產能后，可迎合来自185个国家的1000名客户的需求。

马来西亚手套股开始价量齐升

最近Topglove公布业绩了，由于profit margin开始好转，带动几乎全部马来西亚手套股票上升。
我也在这个时候买入了少许Topglove给儿子。

 

最低薪金制加重成本 手套股盈利恐缩13%

分析员预测，政府推行最低薪金制将导致本地手套业者的雇员成本增长11%至15%，净利因而会被压缩3%至13%，而手套业一哥——顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）料是受冲击最大的业者。

政府料在今年5月初实施最低薪金制，薪资为每月800至1000令吉。

黄氏发展唯高达研究分析员表示，假设现有薪金水平为每月600令吉，以每月800令吉最低薪金计算，此制度将导致整体手套业的雇员成本增加11%至15%。

他补充，假设没转嫁成本，手套业者净利将减少3%至13%。

同时，分析员的薪金敏感度分析显示，众业者当中，贺特佳（Harta，5168，主板工业产品股）盈利会面对最少的冲击，而顶级手套和高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）的盈利则将受压。

他解释，由于贺特佳的厂房运作属高度自动化，较少依赖劳工，其盈利因而最有韧力。

“我们预计每月800令吉最低薪金，会将其雇员成本提高至每年700万令吉，这对2013财年的盈利预测只带来3%的冲击。”

贺特佳冲击小

贺特佳可谓手套领域内最有效率的业者，其高度自动化的操作，让它拥有最高每员工营运盈利；其生产线有能力每小时生产3万只手套，市场平均产量1万2000至1万8000只手套。

相比之下，分析员估计，最细薪金制将导致顶级手套每年需面对额外2600万令吉成本，这会将2013财年净利预测削减13%，营运赚幅也会滑落1至2百分点（根据每月800令吉薪金）。

“我们对该公司的2012财年全年净利预测为1亿8000万令吉，即按年增长59%，税后盈利赚幅预测为11%。”

有鉴于此，他相信在劳工短缺和最低薪金提高的情况下，各手套业者将会加快生产运作自动化的程序，以便提高生产效率。

转嫁消费者

分析员认为，如应对高乳胶价一般，业者也会将额外劳工成本纳入手套售价。

相对于乳胶成本，劳工成本的比重比较小，因前者在总生产成本的比重为50%至55%，后者只有8%至9%；因此，他相信业者有能力转嫁劳工成本。

他补充，上三个季度，顶级手套表示手套需求正稳健增长（按季增加2%至5%），从而有助缓和成本转嫁程序。

“同时，天然气价格未在去年12月调涨，也预计减轻生产成本增长的影响。我们预计天然气价格接下来会在7月调高。”

今年产能增8%

整体上，分析员预计手套领域今年的产能会增加8%。

其中，以70%厂房使用率计算，再考量去年的高产能——370亿只手套，顶级手套产能预计今年仅按年增长4%。

高产尼品工业2012财年的产能则预计增加12%。

因为该公司已额9条新生产线（12亿5000万只），总产能因而提高至130亿只。

至于贺特佳，一旦第6厂房在年底启用，会将整体产能推高17%至21%。

丁手套 下半年或掀價格戰

國內手套商加碼增產丁手套，下半年或為搶銷量掀價格戰，繼而拖低賺幅，加上最低基薪制落實在即，員工薪資成本至少增11%至15%，業者營運前路壓力重重。

艾芬投銀研究分析師夏琪拉報告中指出，儘管今年1月乳膠價格從巔峰滑落42%至每公斤6.30令吉，但之前國內4大手套商趁勢大量生產丁手套的氛圍下，下半年或以價格，強力主攻此市場。

“賀特佳（HARTA，5168，主要板工業）和速伯瑪（SUPERMX，7106，主要板工業）已表明會以價格策略大力推銷丁手套，其余2名業者料將緊追趨勢。”

面臨基薪制考驗

但她指出，近期成本再提高，原本賺幅高達15至20%的丁手套營運料受壓，使賺幅減低至11至15%。

這廂賺幅受壓，另一廂手套商亦與其他領域業者般面臨最低基薪制考驗，黃氏星展唯高達證券研究報告中舉例，若最低基薪為800令吉，手套業者的員工成本將增11至15%，屆時淨利料減3至13%。

“以上為業者未將高企成本轉嫁至消費者的假設，一般上手套業者將多余的成本轉移至售價，以此方式減輕成本壓力。”

分析師指出，最低基薪和外勞供應都是此領域挑戰，目前擁有最高自動化生產技術、對人力仰賴最低的的賀特佳，最受看好在成本高企時站穩腳步。

至于生產中最關鍵的乳膠價格，黃氏星展唯高達證券研究分析師指出，2月至5月為產量較低的傳統奉節，市場供應減少或刺激價格稍微回彈。

TOPGLOVE Q2 2012

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

29/02/2012

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		29/02/2012	28/02/2011	29/02/2012	28/02/2011
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	548,991	485,208	1,103,834	976,717
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	68,802	31,475	110,393	75,880
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	54,196	25,940	86,651	62,273
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	53,455	25,410	84,887	61,460
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	8.64	4.11	13.72	9.94
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	1.9300		1.8500

頂級計劃今年收購一家手套廠

頂級手套（TOPGLOV，7113，主板工業股）計劃，在今年內至少收購一家手套生產商，以配合該公司欲提升市佔率和盈利增長的策略。

頂級手套主席丹斯里林偉財接受《路透社》訪問時指出，該公司已和數家手套生產商進行接洽。他補充說：「我們接洽的業者主要來自大馬，一旦在收購價格與其他事項皆達到共識後，便可在年杪前作出確實的宣佈。」

林偉財表示，頂級手套在強勁的現金流扶持下，可順利進行潛在的收購活動。該公司截至今年2月29日的淨現金約3億令吉，較去年8月時高出16.7%。

根據大馬樹膠出口宣傳協會的數據，營業額高達49億美元（約147.5億令吉）的全球膠手套領域，在過去10年已出現顯著的合併趨勢，即從2000年由65個業者掌控45%的市佔率，逐步整合至2012年由40個業者掌控63%的市佔率。

此外，林偉財也透露，頂級手套將積極在大馬、印尼和柬埔寨收購樹膠種植地，以嘗試對天然樹膠價格的劇烈波動進行護盤。

膠價高漲使賺幅下滑

手套領域賺幅在2011年出現下滑趨勢，主要受膠乳價格高漲所致，而膠乳佔手套生產成本的60%。

膠乳價格去年2月曾上探至每公斤11令吉，持續高企一段時間後逐步下滑，目前處在每公斤約7至8令吉。

因此，林偉財預計，膠乳價格今年將會持平。「我們預計全球經濟放緩將有助減輕商品價格壓力，但泰國政府的價格扶持政策或使價格在短期內提升。」

頂級手套計劃在今年投資1億令吉，以增設生產線和工廠。該公司在大馬、泰國和中國擁有20家製造廠，每年手套產量為400.5億件。

Supermax: Glove sector to remain strong

The Malaysian glove industry is expected to remain strong with global demand and consumption estimated to grow between
eight and 12 per cent per annum, said an industry player.

Supermax Corp Bhd executive chairman/group managing director, Datuk Seri Stanley Thai, said glove consumption was not expected to be affected by the crises in Europe and the US.

"The prices are expected to remain volatile and over-speculated eventhough the market is not expecting a shortage of natural rubber latex supply.

"Natural rubber latex prices are expected to retreat to an average of between RM5.50 and RM6.50 per kg this year," he told reporters after a briefing for analysts, fund managers and investors here today.

Thai said the nitrile gloves were expected to experience price war from the second half onwards.

"However, the margin is expected to be maintained at competitive level of between 11-15 per cent this year," he said.

Overall, he said, the glove industry would remain resilient and sustainable this year.

81 Mexicans die of swine flu

MEXICO CITY: Eighty-one people have so far died of swine flu in Mexico this year, while at least 3,522 have been infected with the virus, health officials said.

From Jan 1 till Feb 9, there have been 3,882 confirmed flu cases, the health secretariat said in a statement.

Three seasonal viruses are currently active in Mexico -- AH1N1, AH3N2 and influenza B. The AH1N1 -- or swine flu -- has been the predominant one, with 91 per cent of the infections.

The AH1N1 virus broke out in Mexico in March-April 2009. By June 2010, around 1,300 deaths had occurred and more than 70,000 people had contracted the disease.

亞洲疫情 流感禽流感持續發燒

疾病管制局副局長周志浩今天公布國際最新疫情，亞洲以B型流行性感冒為主，流行區域包括日本、中國大陸與香港，亞洲另有禽流感疫情。

疾病管制局國際疫情監測資料顯示，鄰國日本流感疫情明顯增加，其他國際疫情還包括非洲出現黃熱病、東南亞與亞洲都有流感與禽流感、歐洲出現退伍軍人病等疫情，提醒出國民眾出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染。

流感病例以亞洲最多，中國大陸1月第3週整體流感活動正上升，以B型流感的Victoria株為主；香港流感病例也持續增加，以B型為主，今年共有7人因流感死亡；日本流感也持續發燒，每週就診人數約173萬人，逾7000所學校停課。

歐洲的西班牙傳出感染退伍軍人病，西班牙新增2名英國籍旅客感染退伍軍人病，其中1人已死亡，今年至今共有4名西班牙人及11名英國藉旅客感染，其中3名英國籍病例死亡。

非洲疫情部分，迦納（Republic of Ghana）中西部3區發生黃熱病，共有3例確診，其中2例死亡；喀麥隆（Republic of Cameroon）從去年10月起，北部地區共通報23例黃熱病，其中7例死，至少13例確診。

另外，德國也確診1例非洲錐蟲症（Africantrypanosomiasis）境外移入病例，病患曾到肯亞（Republic of Kenya）蒙巴薩（Mombasa）旅遊區遊覽及非洲大草原（Masai Mara）自然保護區露營。

疾管局表示，非洲錐蟲症是經由采采蠅（Tsetsefly）叮咬感染的寄生蟲病，初期症狀是發燒、出疹，會引起腦膜腦炎，嚴重者神智下降，甚至死亡，又稱非洲昏睡症。肯亞最近一例非洲錐蟲症是在11年前發生。

周志浩表示，H5N1高病原禽流感疫情分別在香港與越南都傳出疫情，香港至今共有5起疫情，1月底發生2起，越南也發生3起疫情；至今全球共有7國通報17起疫情。

周志浩提醒出國民眾，出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染，出門在外注意飲食飲水衛生，勤洗手，穿著長袖衣褲並提高警覺，返國時若發生不適，應儘速就醫，並告知旅遊史。

乳胶价趋跌迎光明 手套股财测目标价上调

吉隆坡6日讯）对手套领域盈利前景影响巨大的乳胶价格，虽然目前呈回弹走势，但分析员认为此景不长，预期手套业者将迎来光明前景，而维持手套领域“中和”评级，并上调数家手套业者的盈利预测和目标价。

预测相符顶级手套

拉昔胡申研究分析员表示，乳胶价格目前从今年1月10日的每公斤6.30令吉低位，反弹至7.50令吉的水平，相信是由橡胶生产国政府的扶持价格措施所致。

“但我们认为此景不长。在全球橡胶需求受经济疲弱影响持续走软，及一旦落叶季节结束预期将会腾出更多供应的情况下，乳胶价格将在未来数月进一步放缓，至每公斤7.00令吉的价位。”

由于早前乳胶价格放缓和汇率利于手套业者，对此作出两大关键发展的新假设之后，分析员已在上个月为顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）上调评级，从“低于大市”至“跟随大市”。

随着上述因素已有所改变，分析员也对其他手套业者作出与顶级手套相符的假设（参阅下表）。



因此，高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）和稳大（Adventa，7191，主板工业产品股）2011至2013财年的净利预测，也分别上调有9.6%至20.8%，及5.9%至7.6%的幅度。
贺特佳（Harta，5168，主板工业产品股）则在调整更高的美元兑令吉汇率后，2012至2014财年盈利预测的上修幅度较小，介于3.4%至9.1%。

手套领域中和评级

目标价预测方面，高产尼品工业、稳大和贺特佳的调整，分别从2.71令吉、1.67令吉和6.06令吉，上调至3.70令吉、1.79令吉和7.19令吉。

上述4家手套业者（加上顶级手套）的评级皆维持在“跟随大市”，而整个手套领域则不变于“中和”评级。

OSK Research retained its Overweight rating on the rubber gloves sector

OSK Research retained its Overweight rating on the rubber gloves sector with its top pick being Supermax with a target price of RM2.75.

As at 4.55pm, the Supermax share price was unchanged at RM2.14.
In its research report, OSK Research said the high rating on the company was premised on its attractive valuation and the fact that it operated in a recession-resilient industry.

It also said that there had been isolated cases of bird flu in Asia and that although it has not reached alarming levels, healthcare MNCs may prepare themselves by gradually stocking up rubber gloves to avoid buying them at "cut throat" price should there be a pandemic break out.

It said risks included further artificial support of rubber prices by the Indonesian and Malaysian governments, and a rising Ringgit.




It expects latex price to stay above RM7 in the shorter term.
"This is due to the uplift in sentiment for the commodity created by the Thai Government," OSK Research said.
Last week, the media reported that the Thai Cabinet had approved a plan to increase the price of locally-grown natural rubber to THB120 (RM11.84)/kg.

This is done through the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives offering soft loans of THB5bn to local agricultural institutes and another THB10bn soft loan to the Rubber Estate Organization, both at zero per cent interest to help them purchase natural rubber from local rubber farmers.

The main reasons given for the intervention include the poor rubber prices arising from the global economic slowdown; the flooding crisis in Thailand which had temporarily suspended its production of automobiles and parts, and slower automotive growth in China.

China also slowed down its purchase of Thai natural rubber and instead had switched to the cheaper Indonesian rubber.
"In our view, unless the Thai Government continues to support the price of rubber in the longer run, the price would still be ultimately decided by the forces of demand and supply," OSK Research said.

Vietnam Reports 2nd Bird Flu Death In A Month

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — A Vietnamese official on Thursday confirmed the country's second human death from bird flu in less than a month, after it went nearly two years with no reported fatalities.

Test results confirm that a 26-year-old woman died of the disease Jan. 28 after being hospitalized in southern Soc Trang province, said Truong Hoai Phong, director of the provincial health department.

The woman had recently given birth in another hospital, but her infant son tested negative for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, Phong said.

Phong said the woman had slaughtered and eaten dead chickens her family raised. He said dead and sick poultry were reported in the woman's neighborhood.

Phong said the woman's house has been disinfected and samples from poultry and people who were in contact with the woman were being tested.

The death came about two weeks after an 18-year-old duck farm worker died of the virus in another province in southern Vietnam.

The virus rarely infects humans and usually only those who come in direct contact with dead poultry, but experts fear it will mutate into a new form that passes easily from person to person.

The World Health Organization says that as of Jan. 24, there have been 344 human deaths from 583 confirmed bird flu cases around the world since 2003. About 60 of those deaths occurred in Vietnam.

Positive outlook for rubber glove sector, says analyst

KUCHING: The rubber glove sector has a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters as earnings recovery is believed to be at an early-cycle and bound to gain momentum on the back of sustained margin revival.

In a sector update, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) analyst Low Soo Fang opined, “We reckon glove manufacturers are poised to reap higher margins from time-lag induced imperfect price adjustments from lower input costs due to easing latex price and the strengthening greenback against the ringgit exchange rate.

“As it is, quarterly earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of glove manufacturers are still two to four percentage points below normalised levels, implying upside potential.

“We expect higher margins to kick-in over the next few quarters as cheaper latex costs are fully reflected in average selling prices (ASPs),” she stated.

Despite a sharp drop of over 40 per cent in latex price from an all-time high of RM10.60 per kilogramme (kg), Low saw a further easing in latex prices as imminent due to a worse-than-anticipated rubber glut and weakening demand.

This would extend support for a sustained improvement in margins for glove makers as it is the single biggest cost determinant for rubber glove manufacturers, constituting up to 56 to 62 per cent of total production costs.

Low gathered that China’s stockpile of natural rubber (NR) had been on a progressive rise since August 2011, leading to an estimated surplus of 365,600 tonnes as at end-December 2011.

Even though global rubber supply for this year was forecasted to rise by only half of 2011’s additional production of 610,000 tonnes, this would inevitably exert further downward pressure on latex prices going forward.

China’s dominance in the global automobile industry (with a 23 per cent market share) was expected to grow at a slower rate this year, in tandem with the country’s slower economic growth outlook.

The country’s vehicle sales grew a mere three per cent last year, compared with a robust 32 per cent in 2010. As the world’s automobile industry consumes about 70 per cent of global NR output, the sluggish outlook for auto sales this year would affect NR demand negatively.

With regards to glove makers’ production mix, Low commented, “In our view, the structural shift from natural rubber (NR) to nitrile gloves will continue alongside industry trends as consumers typically tend to migrate upwards along with rising disposable income.

“However, the rate of switching should become less drastic now, given softening latex price. Most encouragingly, prices of NR gloves are currently at some seven to 10 per cent discount to nitrile variants.

“NR gloves were sold at an estimated 12 per cent to13 per cent premium to nitrile gloves in 2011. The reversal in ASPs resulting in a favourable price differential should thus help NR gloves claw back some lost market share,” she stated.

The analyst raised AmResearch’s earnings forecasts by 35 to 48 per cent for Top Glove Corporation Bhd (Top Glove) and two to 10 per cent for Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (Kossan).

She also imputed in higher utilisation rates, latex price forecast of RM5.50 to RM6 per kg as well as AmResearch’s latest in-house foreign exchange rate (US$1 = RM3.10) for both Top Glove and Kossan.

Choosing Top Glove as the top pick for the sector as the group was a prime beneficiary of easing latex prices, she pegged a fair value at RM6.15 per share (from RM3.10 per share) based on a higher fair price earnings (PE) of 19 times revised financial year 2012 (FY13) forecasted earnings.

With over 78 per cent of total production (37 billion pieces per annum) in NR gloves, Top Glove was regarded as the ‘purest’ and largest NR glove manufacturer. Based on past trends, the stock had seen an upward PE re-rating of eight to12 times during previous periods of declining latex prices.

Low also bumped up Kossan’s fair value to RM4.31 per share (from RM3.38 per share previously) based on a higher fair PE of 12.5 times revised FY12 forecasted earnings.


Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/01/20/positive-outlook-for-rubber-glove-sector-says-analyst/#ixzz1kif1Z7qS

Indonesia: Tangerang man positive for H1N1 swine flu: Health Ministry

Via The Jakarta Post: Tangerang man positive for swine flu: Health Ministry. Excerpt:

The 18-year-old man in Tangerang, who was suspected of being infected with bird flu and who died on Wednesday, tested positive for swine flu, the Health Ministry said. 

The ministry’s head of research and development, Trihono, told The Jakarta Post on Thursday that the man, known as R, had contracted H1N1, which caused a pandemic in 2009. 

Trihono said, however, that it was unlikely that the man had died of swine flu. “While swine flu was deadly in 2009 and 2010, it is no longer a harmful disease.” 

He added that the disease is a lot like a more common seasonal flu. “The sufferer does not even need to be isolated,” he said. 

 The World Health Organization announced in 2010 that the H1N1 swine-flu pandemic had passed, but made clear that “this does not mean that the H1N1 virus has gone away”. 

Trihono suspected that the patient might have suffered from another, deadlier disease, which led to his death. “That disease killed him rather than the swine flu.” 

Officials from Tangerang General Hospital and the regency’s health authority declined to comment on the swine-flu infection, telling the Post that only Health Ministry officials were authorized to make such comments. 

The hospital’s spokesman, Achmad Muchlis, had earlier said that R had died from respiratory problems. The man, a resident from Panongan district in Tangerang, died after being treated for five days.

Mexico Ups Swine Flu Screening as Cases Increase

Three years after swine flu closed Mexico City and caused an international scare, the Mexican government and local media are at odds over the severity of this season's flu virus. Newspapers are warning of an alarming increase in cases while the government insists there is no cause for alarm.
Federal and state health officials agree there is an increase, but they say the number of cases is within the range of a normal flu season.
The Mexican health ministry, however, has listed confusing numbers on its website and it hasn't specified the rise in cases despite repeated requests from The Associated Press.
The federal education ministry said Wednesday that it was instituting screening measures in all elementary schools for the H1N1 flu strain, commonly called swine flu when the first outbreak was discovered in Mexico in March 2009. The ministry revised its message later to say screenings are in place only at schools where children exhibit symptoms.
Local media reported a handful of schools in Mexico City have closed. The education ministry said they were private schools shuttered by administrators and parents, not by official government action.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that while Mexico is seeing more cases of the H1N1 virus, the U.S. is seeing more cases of a different strain, H3N2. Antibodies for both are part of this year's flu vaccine. H1N1 is now considered a seasonal flu.
"We are not aware of any unusual changes in the virus in Mexico that would be concerning," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said in an email to The Associated Press.
Besides the contradicting statements about screenings at schools, the Mexican government has also put out conflicting statistics.
The health ministry on Sunday reported 637 cases of confirmed flu cases so far in 2012 along with 10 deaths — nine of them associated with 573 cases of H1N1.
On Jan. 15, it reported far lower numbers: 181 confirmed cases for all strains of flu and five deaths for 2012, meaning cases would have increased 250 percent in just one week.
The same health bulletin said that for all of last year, there were 870 cases of all strains of flu and 35 deaths.
The World Health Organization in 2009 declared swine flu the first global flu pandemic in 40 years after the outbreak of cases in Mexico that spring and then the strain spread to other countries.
Mexican authorities closed restaurants, schools, museums, libraries and theaters to stop the spread of the disease as initial reports suggested it was killing as many as one in 15 of those infected — a horrifying death rate that would have been more than three times higher than the devastating flu pandemic of 1918-19.
Additional investigation in Mexico suggested that many people had suffered only mild illness. Those cases were not counted in initial reports, meaning the death rate was much, much lower than originally estimated.
By July 2010, the Mexican government reported nearly 76,000 cases of H1N1 and more than 1,300 deaths, the most recent accumulated statistics on its website.
The World Health Organizations estimates that flu causes 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide every year, with about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, primarily among the elderly and the chronically ill.

香港H5N1病毒

新华网香港1月26日电 香港特区政府渔农自然护理署发言人26日表示，日前在新界深井捡走的一只鹅尸体经多项测试后，证实对H5N1病毒测试呈阳性反应。

据介绍，该只鹅尸体于1月20日在深井青山公路13咪钓鱼湾泳滩被捡走。该处的3公里范围内没有鸡场，也没有迹象显示有人散养家禽。渔护署将继续密切监察有关情况，并加强在附近一带的巡查。

渔护署表示，将继续巡查本地活家禽农场，确保业界采取适当措施预防禽流感。渔护署呼吁市民注意个人卫生，避免接触野生雀鸟或活家禽，接触禽鸟后须立即洗手

Jakarta on alert after man dies of H5N1

JAKARTA: Indonesia has stepped up preventive and control measures against bird flu following the death of a 23-year-old man of suspected H5N1 virus infection in northern Jakarta on Saturday.

Deputy Health Minister Ali Gufron Mukti said today the government was handling the measures more professionally to prevent any spread of the disease.

The measures also included having designated hospitals to handle such cases in the future, he said. 

Mukti could only say that he would provide verification later when asked to confirm whether an outbreak of the disease had occurred in northern Jakarta.

It is learnt that the man who died had bred pigeons in the vicinity of his home. 

Agriculture Minister Suswono said Indonesia was not completely free of bird flu.

"Most importantly, we hope that the people will not hesitate to immediately report any death of chickens, and should any of the people fall ill," he said. 

Suswono has ordered relevant agencies under the ministry to monitor cases suspected to be bird flu. 

Meanwhile, the local media reported that the health division of the Jakarta local authorities conducted an operation today to examine sick birds in eastern Jakarta besides enforcing the restriction on breeding of birds within 25 metres of residential areas. 

In the operation, several birds bred in the restricted areas were culled