全球资产泡沫化？？

过去几年里，全球资产泡沫已经愈演愈烈。

数据显示，2016年底全球房地产价值为228万亿美元，而2017年底，全球房地产价值已经创下281万亿美元的新纪录。

2017年底的全球主流资产价值：

全球房地产价值为281万亿美元，国债价值为105万亿美元，全球股票总值为83万亿美元，而黄金白银仅为3.1万亿美元。

2016年的全球主流资产价值：

全球房地产价值为228万亿美元，国债价值为100万亿美元，全球股票总值为70万亿美元，黄金白银为3.1万亿美元。

2016年到2017年，仅仅一年的时间，全球房地产价值增长23%，国债价值增长5%，全球股票价值增长22%，而黄金白银几乎没有变化。

2015年的全球主流资产价值：

2015年到2017年两年来看，黄金白银和其他资产的差距进一步扩大，2015年至2017年全球房地产价值增长64万亿美元，股票价值增长28万亿美元，国债价值增加11万亿美元，而黄金白银还是近乎零增长。

分析机构Money Metals News Service表示，短短两年内，全球房地产、国债和股票总价值上升就超过了100万亿美元，市场处于极度泡沫状态，预计在未来的10年内，这三类资产的价值就将缩水50%，庞大的资金将从这些被极度高估的资产中流出，贵金属市场将再次受到人们的青睐，长期来看，黄金白银价格将迎来大涨。

JohnMaudlin:負息橫行橫行經濟失真

我們正身處一個前所未見的經濟環境，有懷疑？看看這個數字：12.6萬億美元。這是在目前負息環境下交易中的政府債券和企業債券總面值。沒錯，負息債券也有人在買賣，非常奇怪，但的確正在發生。 

交易員和投資者沒有瘋掉，他們不過是盡量在愈來

愈非理性的世界中作出最理智的決定。當眼前所有選擇都很糟糕，無論選哪個，結果都不會好。 

負利率合理嗎？可能吧，如果現金變得無人想要，又或者有人希望現金變得無人想要，促使更多人願意冒險投資（至少部分央行官員有這種心思）。然而，消費者和企業實際上存起更多錢，即使利率甚低，甚至處于負水平。 

另一方面，現金沒落與網絡盛行同時發生並非湊巧，現在可以從網上免費得到的知識，在70年代要花費很多錢，因此，在現代科技環境下，即使沒有央行操控，利率可能也會很低，但只可以猜測，無法透過實驗得知，就像央行官員一樣，只可估計新措施的效果，沒有實際證據支持。現在讓我們來看看負息政策對經濟構成的6個負面影響。 

1.無法刺激經濟 
美國聯儲局相信低息能夠刺激內需，但過去8年的經驗證明這是錯的，經濟增長最多只可說是溫和，更糟糕的是，需求非但沒有反彈，反而因為儲蓄增加和消費減少而變得更弱。 

理由其實很簡單，如果你是靠利息維持生活的退休人士，在低息或負息環境下，要得到收入，就要冒險投資長期債券、垃圾債券和優先股等資產，想得到更多緩沖，唯一的方法是減少不必要的開銷。企業和消費者一樣在囤積現金。蘋果、微軟這些美國大科企就算不是為了避稅，也會選擇在海外存放大量資金，一來他們要控制開支，二來現在可投資的項目很少，于是那些錢就放在一旁，沒有發揮任何作用。 

2.違背凱恩斯理論 
聯儲局在2008年金融危機時放水是對的，但之後多年保持極低利率的做法就說不過去，因為這既傷害存戶，也沒有刺激增長，就連聯儲局趨之若鶩的經濟學家凱恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）也說過，利率必須反映現實，局內人才那麼多，竟然沒有人覺得不妥，實在是個謎。 

凱恩斯指出，作出借貸的人需要收取足夠的利息，才能抵消稅務及承擔風險的相關開支，零息做不到，負息更加不可能。利率是有底線的，而且肯定在零水平以上，愈是接近零，刺激經濟的作用就愈低，低至某個水平就會開始產生不良效果。 

19世紀著名英國經濟學者白芝浩（Walter Bagehot）在其著作《倫巴第街：貨幣市場概說》（Lombard Street: A description of the money market）中提到，作為「最後貸款人」（lender of last resort），英倫銀行應該在有需要時大量放貸，但要收取溢價利息以及優質抵押品。然而，現代央行只跟從了大量放貸這個原則，聯儲局在2008年更是反其道而行，無限制地放水，基本上是免費借貸，而且幾乎沒有收取任何抵押品，銀行當然像螞蟻見蜜糖一樣沖過去，要他們放手也很難。 

3.政策癱瘓 
要怎樣矯正這個錯誤，又不至于令金融市場動蕩是個難題。標普500指數目前的回報率是2%左右，但股市風險高是眾所周知的事，如果投資國債或存錢到銀行能夠賺取同等甚至更高的回報，誰也不願冒這個險。 

加息雖然可以增加存戶的利息收入，但如果利率突然正常化，股市將會受挫，而聯儲局現在最不想做的，就是傷害股市。既然聯儲局不願動手，美國就只可以原地踏步，期望有一天情況會自己改變。這一天是會到來的，但筆者認為那不會是令人開心的改變，因為到時聯儲局官員可能需要采取更不尋常的貨幣政策。 

4.無聲扼殺保險公司 
保險公司和退休基金的盈利依靠合理的長期投資回報，然而在低息環境下，他們愈來愈難維持回報承諾，一些規模比銀行更大的歐洲保險公司最慘，監管規例強迫他們投資長期政府債券，但現在很多都是負息，試問投資負回報的資產怎麼可能賺錢？ 

至于銀行，負息肯定造成打擊，但暫時還沒有出現極端情況，部分銀行開始采取行動保護自己，例如蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBS）上周說，可能向部分企業客戶的存款收息，有些德國銀行已經這樣做，也有銀行采取裁員、關閉分行等削減開支措施。 

5.扭曲市場訊號 
歐洲央行行長德拉吉（Mario Draghi）承諾「不惜一切」振興歐羅區經濟，然後推出負息政策和買債計劃等非傳統措施，央行的幹預和偏好也逐漸顯現。 

《華爾街日報》上周報道，歐央行繞過公開市場直接買入兩家西班牙公司的債券，而且不打算告訴任何人，背後原因不得而知，但反映央行在公開市場上已經找不到可買的東西。 

有美國公司的歐洲分支利用這個機會，發行一些可讓歐央行購買的債券，從企業角度來說完全合理，問題是這樣做會扭曲市場信息，導致其他玩家做出不良的投資決定。正如下【圖】所示，符合歐央行購買資格的企業債券表現明顯較好，而且有愈來愈好的趨勢： 

到底這是因為這些債券本身比較優質，還是受到隨時可能停止的歐央行購買計劃影響，實在無法得知，歐洲債券投資者也沒有清晰的數據讓他們可以作出最好的決定，部分肯定會選擇離場，從而令歐央行「獨買」的情況更加嚴重，也正好與當局的原意背道而馳。 

6.打壓退休人士 
將此放到最後，是因為筆者認為，這是零息、負息、量寬等非傳統貨幣政策最令人氣憤的地方──央行因為自己的武斷而犯錯，卻要一般人來承擔後果。 

筆者很少引用自己的文章，但2月那篇〈救市拖累 零風險退休成絕唱〉部分關于退休保障的內容實在值得回顧一下： 

無論閣下還是替閣下管理積蓄的巨型退休基金，都無法賺取足夠的無風險收入，確保你能過舒適的退休生活。 

何解？因為這是貨幣政策掌舵人的旨意，退休人士及他們的退休金都成為犧牲品，只為「完成大我」。據這些充滿憐憫之心的掌舵人所知，日後要快快樂樂地退休，最重要的先決條件是經濟增長；他們認為，沒有寬松貨幣環境，就不能孕育經濟增長。因此，他們幾年前把息口減至零，滿以為不久就能再度加息，讓大家的退休大計重拾正軌之余，又毋須威脅到日後經濟增長。增長引擎將再次啟動，一切又會恢複正常。 

神機妙算原來不過如此，在刺激經濟的戰事中，你我只是可以犧牲的無名小卒，曆經槍林彈雨驚魂未定，眼前所見， 經濟戰場幻化成零息平原及負息幽谷。 

筆者下周將與大家探討低利率和寬松政策造成的「傷亡」，以及這種「傷亡」與經濟複蘇不慍不火之間的關系。其實美國經濟有沒有寬松貨幣政策也會複蘇，聯儲局這些年來的低息政策反而扭曲了複蘇過程，令那些一生勤奮工作，並嘗試為退休作出合理安排的人遭殃。

Macquire: Gold should be $2,000/oz

Earlier this week, analysts at Deutsche Bank published research claiming that gold should be trading at $1,700 an ounce, due balance sheet expansion at central banks. Not to be outdone, Australian bank Macquarie has come out with an even more optimistic forecast for the price of the yellow metal.
Silver Mining vs. Gold Mining: The Dynamics Explained
According to Macquarie’s commodities research team, gold should be trading at $2,000/oz. The team argues that with all the prevailing political and economic uncertainty stalking the markets, the price of gold should be around 53% higher than it is today.

Why isn’t gold worth $2,000/oz?

Why isn’t  the metal worth $2,000/oz? Macquarie has three theories.
Firstly, the bank’s analysts take a page out of the S&P 500 CEO’s handbook and blame the strong dollar. Just as S&P 500 companies have been blaming the strong dollar for weak earnings for the past 24 months, Macquarie points out that if measured in other currencies the price of gold is much closer to its 2011 peak.
Investment Slows, Soft Summer ‘Risks $1300’ But Bond Defaults ‘Will Spike’
For example, in sterling terms, the price of gold is around £1,000/oz at the time of writing compared to the 2011 peak of £1180/oz. Meanwhile, gold priced in South African rand is trading more than 33% above its 2011 high of ZAR 15,000 at ZAR 19,157. That said, this rally has more to do with a weak rand and South Africa’s economic troubles. Since 2011 the rand has lost a tremendous amount of value, up from 7.1 to the dollar in 2011 to 14.6 today as devaluation that will have wiped out almost all of your gold gains.

Gold - What Happens Next?

Historically, gold bull markets last years and as you can see in the following chart from Casey Research we are still in the very early innings of this one.



As OtterWood Capital notes, Gold has been correcting recently and the question is how much further can it go?


During any bull market the long term moving averages act like support (I look at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages).
Gold has broken through the 50 day and could fall as far as the 200 day and still be in a perfectly normal bull market.
Corrections in long term bull markets happen repeatedly and should be bought.

Lord Rothschild: Why I've sold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of shares, and bought gold

Lord Rothschild, chair of the £3.04 billion Rothschild Investment Trust, has revealed that while he has significantly reduced his exposure to listed shares, he has responded to the prevailing economic uncertainty by buying gold.

Lord Rothschild has been selling shares

Lord Rothschild and his family have an investment of well over £100 million in the Rothschild Investment Trust.

In his latest update to shareholders he commented that recent months have seen, ‘Central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 per cent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale. To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world’
The veteran investor continued, ‘The geopolitical situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks. In times like these, preservation of capital in real terms continues to be as important an objective as any in the management of your Company’s assets. In respect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quoted equities we have reduced our exposure from 55 per cent to 44 per cent.’


He added, ‘Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34 per cent, and currently stands at approximately 25 per cent. We increased gold and precious metals to 8 per cent by the end of June. We also increased our allocation to absolute return and credit, which delivered positive returns over the period, benefiting from a number of special situations. Within this category our new association with Eisler Capital had an encouraging start. We expect this part of the portfolio to be an increasingly important contributor to overall returns. Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields.’

The Rothschild Investment Trust has returned 58 per cent over the past three years, compared to 15 per cent for the average trust in the AIC Flexible Investment sector, making it the top performing trust.

This Is Why the World’s Most Successful Investors Are Buying Gold Now

Don't make the mistake of ignoring what an all-star roster of the world's richest investors is doing right now. They are buying billions of dollars' worth of gold.

(This is one of many reasons that it makes a lot of sense to have gold in your portfolio. We explain the why and the how in a free 22-page special report you can download here.)

For example, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller has earned an average of 30% a year for 30 years, without a single negative year. And currently, 18% of Druckenmiller's portfolio is made up of the SPDR Gold Trust  (GLD) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of gold bullion.

George Soros, the man who "broke the bank of England" in the early 1990s, earned $1 billion by shorting the British pound. Along with Jim Rogers, Soros also earned investors a 3,365% return in just 11 years with the Quantum Fund.

Now, Soros owns a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold  (ABX) , the largest gold mining company in the world. It is his fund's second-largest holding. But that's not the only gold Soros owns. He also bought more than 1 million option contracts on the SPDR Gold Trust.

Another well-known investor with a stake in gold is David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. Einhorn's investors have seen average annual returns of 16.5% since 1996. Now, he has a $165 million stake in VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF  (GDX) .

The list goes on with other big names like Paul Singer, Carl Icahn and John Paulson all owning large stakes in gold.

Why are so many big-name investors flocking to gold? As Druckenmiller said about his own large stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, it's because of the "absurd notion of negative interest rates."

Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has flipped the world of international finance on its head. The concept of negative interest rates does not make theoretical sense. Instead of the borrower paying the lender with interest, the lender pays the borrower to take his money. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't think this would happen. In 2009 he said, "No one will lend at a negative interest rate; potential creditors will simply choose to hold cash, which pays zero nominal interest."

觀點 - 施永青 黃金會恢復歷史上的功能嗎？

有論者認為：這只是一時的恐懼所造成，黃金不可能恢復它的貨幣功能；因為全世界的政府都不想失去發鈔的權力；只要政府在操控經濟環境時略佔上風，政府都會盡全力打擊民眾對黃金的偏好，設法讓人們相信，黃金遲早會變爛銅。 

現實是：全球各處的文明，都曾在一段相當長的歷史時段上，以黃金作為易物媒介，以及作為主要的財富儲存工具。 

在原始時代，人類的生產力有限，只能採摘與捕獵上天提供給他們的食物，所獲僅夠糊口。到生產力上升，所獲有餘的時候，就可以用自己所餘去換自己所需。譬如，自己所養的雞生了很多蛋，吃不完，可以與鄰家換點稻米。但可能鄰家也有養雞，不需要你的蛋，導致這項以物換物的交易沒法成交。因此，最好先把自己的雞蛋換成一種大部分人都願意接受的東西(如黃金)，那就用來換甚麼東西都可以。 

黃金閃閃發光，大多數人都會喜歡，可以接受用作交易媒介。黃金相對稀有，並非隨處可摘，價格相對穩定。黃金不易有化學變化，長期儲存也不會變質，極適合用作財富儲存工具。 

黃金的貨幣功能，源自黃金本身的物理性質，不容易人為地被剝奪。相反，由政府發行的貨幣，其實只是一張印刷品，其交換能力與儲存價值，全靠政府立法保障；一旦政府失去權力或財力不足，其保障就會成為一句空話。 

近年，全世界大部分政府在財政上都有赤字，都在一定的程度上濫發鈔票，以至貨幣的增長速度遠遠快過整體的財富增長速度。結果是貨幣的購買力不斷蒸發，同一分量的貨幣可以代表的財富不斷減少。這等同政府正不斷地把人民的財產充公。 

私有產權是人權的主要部分。不保障私有產權的地方(如社會主義國家)，通常連其他方面的人權也一併不太尊重。只可惜一般人權組織只關心與產權無關的人權，甚少意識到在貨幣上的量化寬鬆其實也是一種侵權行為，而且受害人眾多。更有一批為虎作倀的學者，長期為政府的無錨發鈔做法辯護，刻意貶低黃金的天然貨幣功能。 

格林斯潘早年曾是艾茵‧蘭德信徒。1966年曾在《The Objectivist》雜誌發表一篇名為“Gold and Economic Freedom”的文章，主張維護黃金的原始功能，並以金本位的方式，去限制政府胡亂發鈔。想不到他後來竟會去當聯儲局主席，並不斷以減息的方法去擴大貨幣供應；次按危機與全球金融海嘯可謂是他有份搞出來的。不過，他的這篇文章仍值得讀者上網一看。 

英國脫歐後，人們預期各國政府都會繼續量化寬鬆，為了避免自己的財產不斷地被政府充公，人們於是減持現金，增持實物資產，包括黃金與地產。我估計會作出這樣選擇的人將愈來愈多。

Gold and Silver? - Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

From: https://goldsilver.com/news/if-the-stock-market-crashes-what-happens-to-gold-and-silver-jeff-clark-senior-precious-metals-analyst/ We received a lot of queries asking if it would be better to wait to buy gold until after the stock market crashes. After all, Mike has warned that a stock market crash is likely. Given what happened to global markets from the Brexit surprise, it’s a timely question. And if the market takes a dive, many investors think gold and silver prices will fall, too. If so, wouldn’t it be better to wait to buy them until after the dust settles? Probably the best way to answer this is to look at what’s happened in the past…   The Message From History I looked at past stock market crashes and measured gold and silver’s performance during each of them, to see if there are any lessons we can learn. The following table shows the eight biggest declines in the S&P over the past 40 years, and how gold and silver responded to each.

There are some reasonable conclusions we can draw from this historical data.   In most cases, the gold price rose during big stock market crashes.Notice this was regardless of whether the crash was short-lived or stretched over a couple years. Gold even climbed in the biggest crash of them all, the 56% decline that lasted two full years in the early 2000s. It seems clear that we should not assume gold will fall in a stock market crash… just the opposite has occurred more often. The reason for this is because gold generally has a negative correlation with the stock market. In other words, when one goes up, the other tends to go down. Which makes sense… if the stock market falls, fear is usually high—and investors typically seek out the safe haven of gold. If stocks are rocking and rolling, the perceived need for gold from the mainstream is low. You’ll recall gold did fall in the initial shock of the 2008 financial crisis. But while the S&P continued to decline, gold rebounded and ended the year up 5.5%. Over the total 18-month stock market selloff, gold ended that period up over 25%. The lesson here is that one should not panic if gold temporarily suffers from a stock market collapse. And of course see it as a buying opportunity.   Gold’s only significant selloff (-46% in the early 1980s) occurred just after its biggest bull market in modern history. Gold rose over 2,300% from its 1970 low to the 1980 peak… so it isn’t terribly surprising that it fell with the broader stock market at that point. We have the opposite situation today. Yes, gold is up roughly 24% year-to-date, but we’re still coming out of a punishing four-year bear market where the price declined by as much as 45%.   Silver did not fare so well during stock market crashes. In fact, it rose in only one of the S&P selloffs (and was basically flat in another one). This is likely due to silver’s high industrial use, and that stock market selloffs are usually associated with a poor or deteriorating economy. However, notice that silver’s biggest rise (+15% in the 1970s) took place amidst its biggest bull market in history. It also did not decline during the financial crisis period of late 2007 to early 2009, which was its second biggest bull market. In other words, we have historical precedence that silver could do well in a stock market crash if it is already in a bull market. Otherwise it could struggle. The overall message from history is this: odds are good that gold won’t crash if the stock market does. Silver might depend on whether it’s in a bull market.   What if the Stock Market Doesn’t Crash? We have to consider another scenario: what if the stock market doesn’t fall off a cliff? Or what if it’s just flat for a long period of time? The 1970s (through 1980) saw three recessions, an oil embargo, interest rates that hit 20%, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Look what the S&P did during that turbulent period, along with gold.

The S&P basically went nowhere during the entire decade of the 1970s. After 10 years it was up a measly 14.3% (excluding dividends and commissions). Gold, on the other hand, rose from $35 per ounce to its January 21, 1980 peak of $850, an incredible 2,328%. In other words, gold’s biggest bull market in modern history occurred while the stock market was essentially flat. That’s because the catalysts for higher gold weren’t solely related to the stock market—they were more about everything else going on at the time. We have to allow for the possibility that this happens again: citizens are drawn to gold due to other pressing concerns besides the performance of the S&P. I’m not suggesting there won’t be a stock market crash. Odds are better than 50/50 that’s what we’ll get. But if we do, history shows that gold may not crash with it. Or it might fall only temporarily. Or we might not get a crash at all. For these reasons, I think it is wise to own a good chunk of gold now. Anything can happen when markets are hit with extraordinary volatility. But consider all the risks we face today… do you really want to be without gold right now? I don’t. Perhaps the ideal solution is to have a stash of cash ready to deploy if we get another big decline in precious metals—but also have a stash of bullion already set aside in case the next crisis sends gold off to the races.

事不寻常 高盛、索罗斯同时预言到一件事将发生

新闻配图

核心提示：高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱。与此同时，索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。

高盛的Damien Courvalin和Jeffrey Currie等分析师在5月15日的电子邮件报告中表示，原油市场从库存接近饱和转变为供不应求的时间比预期提前。

高盛将第二季度西德州中质原油(WTI)价格预测从每桶35美元调高至45美元，第三季度预测从40美元上调至49美元，第四季度预测从45美元提高到51美元，2016年全年预测从38.40美元调高至44.60美元。

尼日利亚供应受阻、伊朗增产以及需求增加等因素，正带动油价进入“转型阶段”。

实物市场“终于开始”再平衡；今年第一季度市场供应过剩140万桶/天，第二季度可能变成供应短缺7.1万桶/天。

在需求强劲和产量减少推动下，今年出现供不应求的局面比高盛3月中旬预测的时间提早了一个季度。高盛将2017年原油价格预测从每桶57.50美元调低至52.50美元。

事实上，高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱，除了为美国经济护航与推高通胀率、达到再次加息门槛之外，更重要的是打救美国页岩油企业，避免所发行高息债券（垃圾债券）连环“爆炸”。此时国际油价止跌回升，对美国利大于弊。

换而言之，弱美元政策重新抬头了。

与此同时，在本周五七大工业国(G7)会议举行在即之际，美国财政部长杰克卢突然发表狠话，直言对于日本推出导致日元贬值的措施感到不安，意味不会容许日元再大幅贬值，以免造成强美元影响美国经济表现，这可以解释近月日元兑美元易升难跌原因。

市场不宜对G7会议有太大期望，担心会后日元恢复强劲升势，兑美元可能会一举升破一百大关，势必触发新一轮日元套息交易拆仓活动，全球股市将会有难了，爆发拆仓套现浪潮，近日欧美日股市均不约而同出现抛售压力，资金已布局空仓了。

美股“末日审判”快到

值得注视的是，美国经济转弱，首季GDP增0.5%，并且为两年最慢增速，而企业季绩令人失望，普遍出现倒退，尤其是美国汽车销售已告见顶，难以再支持美股现水平企稳。

法推动美股向上，近日更失去全球市值最高宝座，可能预示“末日审判”快到了。

一大波大佬持仓公布

随着今年一季度结束，华尔街对冲基金最新持仓报告也在逐步披露。

周一公布的监管申报文件显示，亿万富翁乔治·索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。

索罗斯基金管理公司上季度末的美股持股下降了37%至35亿美元。索罗斯还披露持有105万SPDR黄金信托股份的看涨期权，这是跟踪黄金价格的交易所交易基金。

雷根时期的预算管理局局长(OMB)斯托克曼昨天公开表示看空美股，他说依统计数据，美国损耗盈余、汽车销售创高峰、存货比率、运费都反映美国经济比人们想像的还不稳定，他大胆地说：“在这一轮政治循环必定难逃经济衰退。”预言标普500下半年跌幅高达40%；所以今年11月美国总统不如选特朗普那样的破坏狂突破现状、用不同方式治理国家。

近来市场看空美股的言论不断，综观目前表态看跌的重量级投资人发言，两大主因是美国错误的经济政策、中国经济成长放缓。

有美国商界最危险的人物、企业狙击手之称的伊坎，四月宣称已清空了手中所有苹果股票，他并预期今年股市会先跌20%，如果政府实施刺激措施，可望再回涨20%。

投资大师罗杰斯说，投资者今年要为美联储过去错误的财政、货币政策买单。全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥认为，美联储在金融危机后，对市场释放大量资金、制造资产价格泡沫，导致政策逐渐失效；股市面临债务周期结束后的下跌风险。

债券天王格罗斯分析，主要的新兴市场经济衰退现象未见好转，加上各国央行提振经济效果甚微，市场已意识到全球经济成长缺乏动力，于是投资者大量抛售股票，他预言今年底美股跌深11%。

比美联储加息还大的风险

美国11月总统大选将很快成为继美联储加息时机与中国货币政策之后，又一个造成市场动荡的不确定性因素。

事实上，美国总统大选与英国脱欧公投结果成为美股以至全球股市动荡之源，尤其是一旦共和党特朗普当上总统，以其反全球化的立场，全球金融市场必然将会大乱，现时美股回落开始反映总统大选的风险溢价。

億萬富翁投資者：股票牛市耗盡 大量配置黃金

Stan Druckenmiller

長期投資準星極佳的億萬富翁投資者Stan Druckenmiller稱，股票市場的牛市已經耗盡，而黃金成為了他目前最大的貨幣配置。

Druckenmiller週三(5月4日)表示，雖然過去三年對美聯儲政策多有批評，但這一次美聯儲的作為可能會推動資產價格上漲。

Druckenmiller稱：“我認為有很大證據證明市場有所轉變，高估值以及三年多以來企業無效益的表現、進一步寬鬆的限制以及大量債務等，都意味著股市牛市耗盡。”

Druckenmiller指出，在全球大量負利率的情況下，他選擇持有黃金。 “有些人認為它是金屬，我們則認為它是貨幣，這仍然是我們持倉最大量的貨幣配置。”

WORLD OFFICIAL GOLD HOLDINGS

	International Financial Statistics, April 2016*
		Tonnes	% of reserves**			Tonnes	% of reserves**
1	United States	8,133.5	75.3%	51	WAEMU3)	36.5	11.8%
2	Germany	3,381.0	69.0%	52	Malaysia	36.4	1.5%
3	IMF	2,814.0	1)	53	Peru	34.7	2.2%
4	Italy	2,451.8	68.3%	54	Slovakia	31.7	41.9%
5	France	2,435.6	63.2%	55	Azerbaijan	30.2	18.4%
6	China	1,788.4	2.2%	56	Ukraine	27.4	8.1%
7	Russia	1,447.0	15.1%	57	Syria	25.8	5.8%
8	Switzerland	1,040.0	6.8%	58	Sri Lanka	22.1	13.4%
9	Japan	765.2	2.4%	59	Morocco	22.0	3.7%
10	Netherlands	612.5	59.4%	60	Afghanistan	21.9	12.2%
11	India	557.7	6.2%	61	Nigeria	21.4	2.6%
12	ECB	504.8	26.6%	62	Serbia	18.1	6.5%
13	Turkey6)	479.4	16.9%	63	Cyprus	13.9	63.2%
14	Taiwan	422.7	3.8%	64	Bangladesh	13.8	1.9%
15	Portugal	382.5	72.1%	65	Tajikistan	12.6	88.6%
16	Venezuela	361.0	69.1%	66	Cambodia	12.4	6.5%
17	Saudi Arabia	322.9	2.1%	67	Qatar	12.4	1.3%
18	United Kingdom	310.3	9.3%	68	Ecuador	11.8	14.4%
19	Lebanon	286.8	22.7%	69	Mauritius	9.9	8.9%
20	Spain	281.6	19.9%	70	Czech Republic	9.9	0.6%
21	Austria	280.0	46.5%	71	Ghana	8.7	7.6%
22	Belgium	227.4	36.8%	72	Paraguay	8.2	5.4%
23	Kazakhstan	225.6	32.3%	73	United Arab Emirates	7.4	0.4%
24	Philippines	195.9	9.6%	74	Myanmar	7.3	3.9%
25	Algeria	173.6	4.5%	75	Guatemala	6.9	3.6%
26	Thailand	152.4	3.6%	76	Macedonia	6.8	10.9%
27	Singapore	127.4	2.0%	77	Tunisia	6.8	3.6%
28	Sweden	125.7	8.4%	78	Latvia	6.6	7.3%
29	South Africa	125.2	10.9%	79	Ireland	6.0	8.0%
30	Mexico	121.2	2.7%	80	Lithuania	5.8	18.2%
31	Libya	116.6	5.8%	81	Nepal	4.9	3.0%
32	Greece	112.7	63.5%	82	Bahrain	4.7	3.1%
33	BIS2)	108.0	1)	83	Brunei Darussalam	4.5	5.3%
34	Korea	104.4	1.1%	84	Kyrgyz Republic	4.3	9.5%
35	Romania	103.7	10.9%	85	Colombia	3.5	0.3%
36	Poland	102.9	4.3%	86	Mozambique	3.4	5.6%
37	Iraq	89.8	6.5%	87	Slovenia	3.2	13.5%
38	Australia	79.9	7.3%	88	Aruba	3.1	14.1%
39	Kuwait	79.0	9.5%	89	Hungary	3.1	0.4%
40	Indonesia	78.1	3.0%	90	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.0	2.5%
41	Egypt	75.6	18.4%	91	Luxembourg	2.2	8.3%
42	Brazil	67.2	0.7%	92	Hong Kong	2.1	0.0%
43	Denmark	66.5	4.1%	93	Iceland	2.0	1.4%
44	Pakistan	64.5	13.0%	94	Papua New Guinea	2.0	4.4%
45	Argentina	61.7	8.6%	95	Trinidad and Tobago	1.9	0.7%
46	Finland	49.1	18.8%	96	Haiti	1.8	3.6%
47	Belarus4)	42.9	40.6%	97	Albania	1.6	2.0%
48	Bolivia	42.5	13.2%	98	Yemen	1.6	1.2%
49	Jordan	41.4	9.9%	99	Mongolia	1.6	5.1%
50	Bulgaria	40.2	7.4%	100	El Salvador	1.4	1.7%