巴菲特这一年：伯克希尔或创下7年来最遭表现

今年对大多数投资者而言绝非平坦之年，连最具传奇色彩的投资大师亦未能幸免。“奥马哈先知”沃伦-巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦(200000, 320.00, 0.16%)公司有望创下自2008年以来的最糟糕表现。

　　2015年迄今，伯克希尔A股和B股均下跌13%左右。公司上次如此糟糕的表现还要追溯至2008年，那一年伯克希尔两类股均下跌32%。诚 然，因金融危机和大衰退，2008年对每一位投资者都为一个梦魇之年。尽管如此，伯克希尔2008年表现仍跑赢标普，标普500指数当年下挫38.5%。

　　今年，巴菲特的表现未能跑赢市场，尽管标普500指数也是下跌，但跌幅仅为2%。

　　伯克希尔哈撒韦上一次录得年度下跌并跑输标普500指数要追溯到更早的1999年。当年，标普500指数上涨19.5%，而伯克希尔A股和B股分别下跌20%和22%。

　　尽管今年市场整体出现下跌，但与1999年相比还是有一些共同点，能够帮助我们理解为何伯克希尔的投资表现会不及标普500指数。

　　1999年，大型科技股表现一飞冲天。而今年，科技股同样成为市场指数没有出现大幅下挫的重要原因之一。

　　今年迄今，奈飞(118.16, 1.92, 1.65%)公司（Netflix）和亚马逊(663.7, 0.55, 0.08%)股价均翻了一倍还多，Alphabet（谷歌(750.31, 0.31, 0.04%)）上涨超过40%，Facebook(104.63, -0.88, -0.83%)涨超30%。就像巴菲特当年未涉足微软(55.82,0.47, 0.85%)、思科(27.4, 0.51, 1.90%)、高通(49.04, -0.02, -0.05%)及 Sun Micros 一样，今年巴菲特也未投资上述“科技四巨头”。

　　这会损及伯克希尔的表现。另外更糟糕的事实是，伯克希尔的诸多重仓股股价出现下跌。

　　IBM(138.54, 0.61, 0.44%)为伯克希尔持有的为数不多的科技股之一，今年以来下跌15%，该公司为伯克希尔第四大重仓股。以下为伯克希尔前20大投资组合中的部分股票，它们今年以来的表现同样拖累了伯克希尔的投资收益：

　　美国运通（AXP）：下跌26.5%（第五大持股） 　　

　　宝洁(79.92, 0.32, 0.40%)（Procter & Gamble）（PG）：下跌13.8%（第七大持股） 　　

　　沃尔玛(61.09, 0.55, 0.91%)（wal - mart）：下跌31.5%（第九大持股） 　　

　　达维塔医疗（DVA）：下跌了9.4%（第十大持股） 　

　　高盛(182.95, 2.90, 1.61%)（GS）：下跌8.9%（第十三大持股） 　　

　　迪尔公司（Deere & Co）（DE）：下跌14.9%（第十七大持股） 　　

　　USG公司（USG）：下跌14.5%（第二十大持股）

Berkshire profit falls 37 percent on investment, insurance slump

By Jonathan Stempel and Jennifer Ablan

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) said on Friday its second-quarter profit fell 37 percent, reflecting a significant decline in investment gains and an underwriting loss from insurance operations, which include Geico.

Net income for the Omaha, Nebraska-based insurance and investment company fell to $4.01 billion, or $2,442 per Class A share, from $6.4 billion, or $3,889 per share, a year earlier.

Operating profit dropped well below analysts' forecasts, declining 10 percent to $3.89 billion, or $2,367 per share, from $4.33 billion, or $2,634 per share, despite improvements at the BNSF railroad and Berkshire Hathaway Energy units.

Analysts on average expected operating profit of about $3,038 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue rose 3 percent to $51.37 billion. Book value per share, Buffett's preferred measure of growth, rose 2 percent from the end of March to $149,735.

Net investment and derivative gains plummeted 94 percent to $123 million from $2.06 billion a year earlier, when Berkshire shed its 40-year stake in former Washington Post publisher Graham Holdings Co (GHC.N).

The most recent quarter included losses on contracts betting on long-term gains in major stock market indexes.

Accounting rules require Berkshire to report investment and derivative gains and losses with earnings. Buffett considers the amounts in any given quarter irrelevant, and not reflective of Berkshire's business performance.

GEICO WEAKENS

Earnings from insurance, Berkshire's best-known operating sector, fell 39 percent to $939 million, and included a $38 million underwriting loss versus a year-earlier $411 million profit.

Much of that weakness stemmed from the Geico car insurance unit. Its pretax underwriting gain fell 87 percent to $53 million, as it paid out more of the premiums it collected to cover losses from accidents. Berkshire is boosting premium rates as a result.

Meanwhile, a Berkshire business that insures against major catastrophes suffered a $411 million pretax underwriting loss, reflecting currency fluctuations and a storm loss in Australia.

Berkshire has been paring back in some insurance areas, particularly reinsurance, as new investors enter the industry, reducing the premiums that Berkshire can charge.

"Everyone is chasing the business," said Jeff Matthews, a principal at the hedge fund Ram Partners.

"Outside of insurance," he added, "things look fine."

KRAFT HEINZ

Profit from BNSF rose 5 percent to $963 million as improved operating performance offset lower demand to ship petroleum products, reflecting lower crude oil prices, and fertilizer.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy, a utility mostly owned by Berkshire, saw profit rise 34 percent to $502 million, helped by higher retail rates and a lower income tax rate.

Berkshire has more than 80 operating businesses in such sectors as insurance, energy, food, industrial products and railroads.

As of June 30 it also owned $117.7 billion of stocks such as Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) and Coca-Cola Co (KO.N). It bought $3.09 billion of equities in the quarter, without identifying the companies.

The company estimated it will take a $7 billion non-cash pretax gain in the third quarter related to its 26.9 percent stake in Kraft Heinz Co (KHC.O).

Berkshire took that stake in early July after backing the purchase of Kraft Foods Group Inc by H.J. Heinz Co, which Berkshire and Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital acquired in 2013.

The stake is worth about $25.5 billion, more than double what Buffett has said was Berkshire's $9.5 billion investment.

Berkshire has the ability to make more big acquisitions, having ended the quarter with $66.59 billion of cash.

The company also has dozens of smaller businesses that sell, among other things, Benjamin Moore paint, Borsheim's jewelry, Dairy Queen ice cream, Fruit of the Loom underwear, Johns Manville insulation and See's candies.

On Friday, Berkshire Class A shares closed down $187.24 at $215,462.76, and its Class B shares rose 20 cents to $143.55. The shares are about 6 percent below their record highs set on Dec. 8.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel and Jennifer Ablan in New York; Editing by Richard Chang)

除了巴菲特还有Peter Cundill，价值投资的佼佼者

巴菲特的书少说也有40本，问题是他除了每年发表Bershire Hathaway致股东的信、还有几篇演讲稿，他本身没有著书立作教人投资股票。
但是，投资不是竞赛。如果你要打羽球你一定要学林丹，不能学李宗伟，因为比赛的最终目的是要分出胜负，看谁是最强的。
大多数人投资的目的只是要致富，使生活过得轻松愉快罢了，不是要争做第一名，所以你也不是非学巴菲特，只要是能够在股市里致富成功的人，都可以是你的模仿对象。
当我们要学习、模仿，自然是越接近本尊越好。那么多人想跟巴菲特学一套，可是他到现在都不肯写一本教人投资的书，整天就只会抛他的口头禅：
“别人贪婪我恐惧；别人恐惧我贪婪。”
大佬，你可以告诉我Timing嘛，在我看来市场时时都恐惧，时时都贪婪。
“守则一、不要亏钱；守则二、永远不要忘记守则一。”
巴菲特放屁果然是香的。
“你要滑向冰球会溜到之处，然后准备挥杆。”
好像是偷鸡窝。
所以今天我就要介绍大家一个大家都可以模仿、大家都可以学习的成功投资者。

彼得·昆迪 （Peter Cundill）
彼得·昆迪，加拿大人，毕业于加拿大麦吉尔大学会计系，一生奉行格雷汉姆投资法。
当欧美市场已经没有太多净资产值股的机会的时候，他便出访俄罗斯、日本甚至是非洲来寻找投资机会。他算是最早期走向国际投资的基金经理，
同时他也热爱长跑和登山，每到一个国家总是要跑上一两回。
在1974年，昆迪收购单位价格由六块跌至两块“All-Canadian”著名创投基金，，并改名为昆迪价值基金。该基金从1974年的一千万美元一直滚到2006年的两亿美元。
你若在1974年投资昆迪价值基金一万块，收藏到2007年可增值超过一百万元，开翻超过100倍，三十三年内一共平均增长15%。
绰号“光头佬”的约翰·邓普顿爵士（Sir John Templeton）重量级基金经理，投资五百万美元于昆迪的基金，成为该基金的第一个投资者
昆迪一向强调用四毛来买价值一块钱的股票，并成为了他的基金的口号。
昆迪为人津津乐道的成功投资有全球知名的奢华珠宝和银饰商蒂芙尼公司 （Tiffany & Co）。七十年代，美国经济不景，市场认为蒂芙尼公司的业绩会变差，理据是该公司曾在三十年代美国经济大萧条连续数年亏钱，且奢侈品不是时尚或可负担商品，认为这时候也会重演当年的亏损。
昆迪分析蒂芙尼公司就是从净资产开始，该公司最值钱的金丝雀颜色，128.5克拉的蒂芙尼钻石，在账面上这块钻石记账仅一美元，然而外头有买家肯出价二百万美元购买该钻石。
既然有人出那么高的价钱，证明钻石在当时仍有不错的行情，绝不能拿三十年代的经济大萧条相比。尽管经济不景，蒂芙尼公司的营业额和营利稳定成长，净收入于1974年突破一百万美元大关。
当时蒂芙尼公司的股价价位远低于账面值十块半美元，昆迪认为当时的股价远远低于该公司的清盘价值。昆迪以平均每股八元的价格累计票数。一年内，他以十九美元完全脱售该公司的股份。
他无数的成功投资让他在2001年获颁“分析师最佳成就奖之有史以来最佳基金经理”的投资界最高荣誉。
昆迪于2011年病逝，享年72岁。
投资传记有《There’s always something to do: the Peter Cundill investment approach》。
这本是昆迪的投资日记，里面详细的记载了他的股票实战经验，也揭露了他的心路历程，让我们了解到股神也是人，股神面对亏损也会感到恐惧，有时也会感到迷惑。

6 Things Warren Buffett Says You Should Do With Your Money In 2015

Warren Buffett is such an investing powerhouse, it’s hard to list his credentials without making him sound like Dos Equis’ Most Interesting Man in the World:

• He made his first stock purchase when he was 11 and 99 percent of his $63 billion fortune after his 50th birthday.
• He was the lone insurance policy for Pepsi’s Billion Dollar Sweepstakes.
• People stand in line to get a photo with his wallet.

The Oracle of Omaha is one of the most influential businessmen in the world — and, arguably, the most frugal, a billionaire that once complained “most toys are just a pain in the neck.”

As often as he’s on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” talking about holding company Berkshire Hathaway’s per-share book value, he’s urging students to stay out of credit card debt and increase their savings.

With the year winding down, we combed through all the advice Buffett has given us in 2014, from the sublime (“Price is what you pay, value is what you get”) to the ridiculous (“A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends”).

The net result? Six things you should be doing with your money in 2015, from the master’s mouth.

Warren Buffett’s Best Advice for 2015

1. Put Your Estate in Index Funds

In his 2014 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett revealed his estate plan, reminding readers to keep their investments safe, low-cost and long-term.

Turns out, he’s planning on leaving all of the cash for his wife in a product that’s as old, stodgy and lucrative as himself.

“My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions or individuals — who employ high-fee managers.”

2. Stay Away From Bitcoin

Given Buffett’s almost wholesale aversion to tech, this one isn’t a surprise; the Oracle refuses to invest in what he doesn’t know, and he doesn’t know the technology sector, IBM notwithstanding.

But Buffett’s problem with Bitcoin isn’t that it’s a tech investment — it’s that it’s not any kind of investment at all, because it doesn’t have value, as he explained in a March interview with CNBC.

“Stay away from it. It’s a mirage, basically. … It’s a method of transmitting money. It’s a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can transmit money? Are money orders? You can transmit money by money orders. People do it. I hope Bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it, but you can replicate it a bunch of different ways and it will be. The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view.”

3. Learn How to Read Financial Statements

Buffett gave this advice to Tre Grinner, a 17-year-old with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma who recently secured a Goldman Sachs internship with the help of the Make-a-Wish Foundation.

Buffett surprised the intern with a call while he was being interviewed by CNBC in August, offering him this advice:

“Take all the accounting courses that you can find. Accounting is the language of business. … It’ll make it so much easier for years and years to come for reading financial statements, to get comfortable with it, because it is a language all of its own. Getting comfortable in a foreign language takes a little experience, a little study early on, but it pays off big later on.”

4. Focus on Saving, Not Getting Rich Quick

Ironically, Buffett dropped this tip when promoting his basically unwinnable billion dollar bracket challenge on the Dan Patrick Show.

The sweepstakes, backed by Buffett and Quicken Loans, would award $1 billion to anyone who devised a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket. (The odds of winning were about 1 in 9.2 quintillion — you were 53 billion times more likely to win the Powerball.) Still, the Oracle’s advice was solid:

“Well, I think the biggest mistake is not learning the habits of saving properly early. Because saving is a habit. And then, trying to get rich quick. It’s pretty easy to get well-to-do slowly. But it’s not easy to get rich quick.”

5. When Stock Prices Drop, Buy — Don’t Sell

It was a volatile year for the market and Buffett’s wealth; the investor lost about $2 billion in the course of several days in October when Coke and IBM took a hit after their quarterly earnings reports. Buffett kept calm, though, giving several interviews in which he explained why he was a fan of bear markets.

Granted, when you’ve got $63 billion to your name, this kind of a hit is lunch money. But, as the Oracle explained to CNBC, investors with itchy trigger fingers rarely succeed.

“I like buying it as it goes down, and the more it goes down, the more I like to buy. … If you told me that the market was going to go down 500 points next week, I would have bought those same businesses and stocks yesterday. I don’t know how to tell what the market’s going to do. I do know how to pick out reasonable businesses to own over a long period of time.”

6. Stop Pretending to Be an Expert

“If you don’t invest in things you know, you’re just gambling,” Buffett told CNBC earlier this year. It’s advice he’s rarely strayed from, and the reason why tech, gold and airlines will never get his money (or, in the case of airlines, get his money again). As he wrote in his 2014 shareholders letter:

“You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no.'

Read more: http://www.gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/6-things-warren-buffett-says-should-money-2015/#ixzz3O3oLVEPW

美国真股神是Carl Icahn,不是Warren Buffett

Read: http://mystockfolio.blogspot.com/


Six Stocks Owned by Billionaire Carl Icahn

Carl Icahn has the best long-run investing track record in history.  Yes, better than Warren Buffett, and over a slightly longer period of time.

From 2000 to July of this year, Icahn returned a cumulative 1,622%.  That compares to 235% for Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and just 73% for the S&P 500. Icahn has returned 27% annualized over a 52-year period.  That turns $10,000 into $2.5 billion.  That’s a remarkable statement.

How does he do it?

This past August, he wrote a public letter on his style of investing.

In his letter, Icahn points to a dysfunctional corporate America as the lifeblood of his strategy. He says, “true corporate democracy does not exist in America and as a result many unfit CEOs are not held accountable.”  He credits his success to “adhering to the activism model which we have spent many years developing. What we essentially do is attempt to hold managements accountable through our rights as shareholders and seek to ensure the right people run the companies we invest in.”

In short, there will always be the opportunity to step in and shake up management, remove bad CEO’s, replace them with good CEO’s, and unlock value in poorly performing companies.  Until every company in America is optimally run and is maximizing shareholder value, Icahn will be in business, and so will the art of shareholder activism.
Perhaps the biggest nugget in Icahn’s letter was his analysis on the power of the board seat.  Over the past five years, if any investor would have bought an Icahn-owned stock the day that he (or his team) joined the board of the company, and sold it the day they left the board, according to Icahn's study that investor would have made a 27% annualized return.  That means Icahn’s “board seat screen” would have turned $30,000 into just over $100,000.  Moreover, these stocks were winners nearly 8 out of every 10 times, when this condition of a board seat was met.
Through this analysis, Icahn is essentially telling us to follow him – to do what he does.  With this in mind, here’s a look at five stocks where Carl Icahn has a 5% stake or more, and currently has a board seat.

Hologic (HOLX) – According to Icahn’s Filings he owns almost $7 billion dollars worth, or 12% of Hologic. His team has two board seats on Hologic.

Nuance (NUAN) – Icahn has two members of his team on Nuance’s board and he owns more than 19% of Nuance stock.
Transocean Ltd. (RIG) – Icahn has had a member of his team on Transocean’s board since 2013 and he owns almost 6% of this stock.
Navistar (NAV) – Icahn’s team has been on the board of Navistar since 2012 and Icahn owns 17.6% of Navistar’s stock.
Hertz (HTZ) – Icahn owns almost 9% of Hertz, and last month he just received three board seats from the company.

Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) – Icahn owns a whopping 18.5% of Herbalife and he has had three seats on Herbalife’s board since April of 2013.

巴菲特理财法：“三要三不要”

以下是堪称巴菲特投资理念精华的“三要三不要”理财法：

 

　　要投资那些始终把股东利益放在首位的企业。巴菲特总是青睐那些经营稳健、讲究诚信、分红回报高的企业，以最大限度地避免股价波动，确保投资的保值和增值。而对于总想利用配股、增发等途径榨取投资者血汗的企业一概拒之门外。

 

　　要投资资源垄断型行业。从巴菲特的投资构成来看，道路、桥梁、煤炭、电力等资源垄断型企业占了相当份额，这类企业一般是外资入市购并的首选，同时独特的行业优势也能确保效益的平稳。

 

　　要投资易了解、前景看好的企业。巴菲特认为凡是投资的股票必须是自己了如指掌，并且是具有较好行业前景的企业。不熟悉、前途莫测的企业即使被说得天花乱坠也毫不动心。

 

　　不要贪婪。1969年整个华尔街进入了投机的疯狂阶段，面对连创新高的股市，巴菲特却在手中股票涨到20%的时候就非常冷静地悉数全抛。

 

　　不要跟风。2000年，全世界股市出现了所谓的网络概念股，巴菲特却称自己不懂高科技，没法投资。一年后全球出现了高科技网络股股灾。

 

　　不要投机。巴菲特常说的一句口头禅是：拥有一只股票，期待它下个早晨就上涨是十分愚蠢的。

 

亿万富翁这样炼成：巴菲特理财习惯揭秘

 

　　当今金融界，微软公司董事会主席比尔·盖茨先生与投资大亨巴菲特二位长期稳坐排行榜的前两位。他们曾联袂到西雅图华盛顿大学做演讲，当有华盛顿大学商学院学生请他们谈谈致富之道时，巴菲特说：“是习惯的力量。”

 

　　把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里

 

　　现在大家的理财意识越来越强，许多人认为“不要把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里”，这样即使某种金融资产发生较大风险，也不会全军覆没。但巴菲特却认为，投资者应该像马克·吐温建议的那样，把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，然后小心地看好它。

 

　　从表面看巴菲特似乎和大家发生了分歧，其实双方都没有错。因为理财诀窍没有放之四海皆准的真理。比如巴菲特是国际公认的“股神”，自然有信心重创持有 少量股票。而我们普通投资者由于自身精力和知识的局限，很难对投资对象有专业深入的研究，此时分散投资不失为明智之举。另外，巴菲特集中投资的策略基于集 中调研、集中决策。在时间和资源有限的情况下，决策次数多的成功率自然比投资决策少的要低，就好像独生子女总比多子女家庭所受的照顾多一些，长得也壮一些 一样。

 

　　生意不熟不做

 

　　中国有句古话叫：“生意不熟不做”。巴菲特有一个习惯，不熟的股票不做，所以他永远只买一些传统行业的股票，而不去碰那些高科技股。2000年初，网 络股高潮的时候，巴菲特却没有购买。那时大家一致认为他已经落后了，但是现在回头一看，网络泡沫埋葬的是一批疯狂的投机家，巴菲特再一次展现了其稳健的投 资大师风采，成为最大的赢家。

 

　　这个例子告诉我们，在做任何一项投资前都要仔细调研，自己没有了解透、想明白前不要仓促决策。比如现在大家都认为存款利率太低，应该想办法投资。股市 不景气，许多人就想炒邮票、炒外汇、炒期货、进行房产投资甚至投资“小黄鱼”。其实这些渠道的风险都不见得比股市低，操作难度还比股市大。所以自己在没有 把握前，把钱放在储蓄中倒比盲目投资安全些。

 

　　长期投资

 

　　有人曾做过统计，巴菲特对每一只股票的投资没有少过8年的。巴菲特曾说：“短期股市的预测是毒药，应该把它摆在最安全的地方，远离儿童以及那些在股市中的行为像小孩般幼稚的投资人。”

 

　　我们所看到的是许多人追涨杀跌，到头来只是为券商贡献了手续费，自己却是竹篮打水一场空。我们不妨算一个账，按巴菲特的低限，某只股票持股8年，买进 卖出手续费是1.5%。如果在这8年中，每个月换股一次，支出1.5%的费用，一年12个月则支出费用18%，8年不算复利，静态支出也达到144%！不 算不知道，一算吓一跳，魔鬼往往在细节之中。

巴菲特股市不败的六大要素

一、赚钱而不要赔钱

 

　　这是巴菲特经常被引用的一句话：“投资的第一条准则是不要赔钱；第二条准则是永远不要忘记第一条。”因为如果投资一美元，赔了50美分，手上只剩一半的钱，除非有百分之百的收益，才能回到起点。

 

　　巴菲特最大的成就莫过于在1965年到2006年间，历经3个熊市，而他的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司只有一年(2001年)出现亏损。

 

二、别被收益蒙骗

 

　　巴菲特更喜欢用股本收益率来衡量企业的盈利状况。股本收益率是用公司净收入除以股东的股本，它衡量的是公司利润占股东资本的百分比，能够更有效地反映公司的盈利增长状况。

 

　　根据他的价值投资原则，公司的股本收益率应该不低于15％。在巴菲特持有的上市公司股票中，可口可乐的股本收益率超过30％，美国运通公司达到37％。

 

三、要看未来

 

　　人们把巴菲特称为“奥马哈的先知”，因为他总是有意识地去辨别公司是否有好的发展前途，能不能在今后25年里继续保持成功。巴菲特常说，要透过窗户向前看，不能看后视镜。

 

　　预测公司未来发展的一个办法，是计算公司未来的预期现金收入在今天值多少钱。这是巴菲特评估公司内在价值的办法。然后他会寻找那些严重偏离这一价值、低价出售的公司。

 

四、坚持投资能对竞争者构成巨大“屏障”的公司

 

　　预测未来必定会有风险，因此巴菲特偏爱那些能对竞争者构成巨大“经济屏障”的公司。这不一定意味着他所投资的公司一定独占某种产品或某个市场。例如，可口可乐公司从来就不缺竞争对手。但巴菲特总是寻找那些具有长期竞争优势、使他对公司价值的预测更安全的公司。

 

　　20世纪90年代末，巴菲特不愿投资科技股的一个原因就是：他看不出哪个公司具有足够的长期竞争优势。

 

五、要赌就赌大的

 

　　绝大多数价值投资者天性保守。但巴菲特不是。他投资股市的620亿美元集中在45 只股票上。他的投资战略甚至比这个数字更激进。在他的投资组合中，前10只股票占了投资总量的90％。晨星公司的高级股票分析师贾斯廷·富勒说：“这符合 巴菲特的投资理念。不要犹豫不定，为什么不把钱投资到你最看好的投资对象上呢？”

 

六、要有耐心等待

 

　　如果你在股市里换手，那么可能错失良机。巴菲特的原则是：不要频频换手，直到有好的投资对象才出手。

 

　　巴菲特常引用传奇棒球击球手特德·威廉斯的话：“要做一个好的击球手，你必须有好球可打。”如果没有好的投资对象，那么他宁可持有现金。据晨星公司统计，现金在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的投资配比中占18％以上，而大多数基金公司只有4％的现金。

巴菲特投资“金”定律

1.利用市场的愚蠢，进行有规律的投资。

 

2.买价决定报酬率的高低，即使是长线投资也是如此。

 

3.利润的复合增长与交易费用、避税使投资人受益无穷。

 

4.不要在意某家公司来年可赚多少，只要在意其未来5至10年能赚多少。

 

5.只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。

 

6.通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。

 

7.价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的。价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值；而成长只是用来决定价值的预测过程。

 

8.投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。

 

9.“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资。首先是缓冲可能的价格风险；其次是可获得相对高的权益报酬率。

 

10.拥有一只股票，期待它在下个星期就上涨，是十分愚蠢的。

 

11.即使美联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策，我也不会为之改变我的任何投资作为。

 

12.不理会股市的涨跌，不担心经济情势的变化，不相信任何预测，不接受任何内幕消息，只注意两点：A.买什么股票；B.买入价格。

图解巴菲特投资哲学

用简单的重点图片方式呈现

汇集巴菲特選股神功重点摘要

汇集巴菲特選股神功重点摘要


1.買股票時，入手的原因若未消失就任意出手，這是犯了邏輯錯亂的毛病。
2.用"猜"的來買股票，買時決定買或不買(1/2)；賣時決定賣或不賣(1/2)，要買賣皆猜對才會賺錢，所以賺錢的機率是1/2*1/2=1/4，而不是所謂的輸贏一半一半。

3.根據以下三點可評估股價是否便宜：
過去5年公司獲利的趨勢。
是否需要持續投入資金去擴展？
產業地位是否穩固，是否容易被取代？

4.衡量股票是否買貴的指標：
PER(本益比) = 股價/EPS
PBR(股價淨值比) = 股價/NAV

5.單看EPS無法看出哪家公司營運成績好，因為EPS無法顯示投入的成本。

6.選股應重RoE，如何選出長期能維持高RoE的股票？
●大型股
●多年來展現一致的獲利能力
●高RoE低負債
●良好的經營團隊
●簡單企業
●出價

7.買進價低，就只需要考慮RoE的大小即可。

8.要觀察某一年的還原股價，只需要將某年後的各年公司的配股配息全加起來，加回原股價即可知，還原股價越高，便可以有更高的購買信心。

9.媒體本有愛追熱門股的特性，按媒體報導選股很容易買在高點。

10.財報就像公司的成績單，佔選股考量的70%。

11.挑選RoE只選高RoE，且RoE維持一致、一致向上或景氣循環；不挑RoE忽高忽低或由高向下趨勢的。

12.配得出現金是好公司的重要特徵，若配不出則有隱憂；現金增資過大便是利空，很容易造成RoE下降。

13.公司的目標就是維持高RoE，無法維持高RoE就該把多餘的現金還給股東讓股東能做其它投資，當面臨獲利衰退，股東的受損自然小。

14.淨值變負的情況：公司虧損或公司賺錢但買回庫藏股也會變負，後者是好公司。

15.盈再率過高(80%以上)的公司是有危險的，盈在率(盈餘再投資比率)公式：
(固定資產+長期投資-四期前的固定資產-四期前的長期投資)/(當期淨利+前一期淨利+前二期淨利+前三期淨利).

16.RoE可想為跑車的車速，盈再率是跑車的耗油量。好車應該跑得快且不耗油RoE小於5%的公司不必算盈再率(跑不動的車子不必論它是否耗油)。

17.若是金融股，因為它沒有機器設備，所以需要由盈在率改看配息率，小於20%就不好。(配息率 = 今年股息/去年EPS)

18.現金流量表是第三財務報表，現金週轉不靈才是倒閉的主因；而長期投資及固定資產是現金流出的主要兩個管道，所以算盈在率其實就等於在看現金流量表。

19.做假帳的公司只能做出應收帳款，但做不出現金，所以配不出股息。但舉債、現金增資、炒股都能籌到現金，只是撐不久，所以才需要看一個長期。

20.掏空公司常見手段：投資子公司再以投資失敗收場，或買不值錢的高價固定資產。

21.想單純以財務報表的存貨、應收帳款、現金三個項目來看財務是否健全，可能會被存貨假交易、應收帳款賣給銀行、空的現金額度所欺騙。看盈再率(大於200%即可能是掏空)及配息可以事先避掉地雷股。

22.上市未滿兩年的股票少碰、淨利大於5億的才買並分散投資，也是避掉地雷股的參考原則。

23.公司經理人的誠信很重要，董監持股低於10%，或公司將賺錢的部門分出去成立新子公司，但持股比卻不及60%都是沒有誠信。

24.好公司的三項特質：

●產品經久不變
●高市場佔有率
●多角化經營

25.任何投資都是和銀行的定存來比較，股票的本質是一種定存，RoE是利率，NAV則是本金，而購買的股價是權利金。
26.如何不買貴股票：

●股票跌到便宜價以下，準備買。
●抓GDP的基期來判斷大盤高低點。
●觀察景氣循環。(如：根據摩爾定律，芯片的景氣三年一循環，18個月上，18個月下；傳產是5年半一循環。若股價便宜且景氣不在谷底則買一半，若股價便宜且景氣在谷底才一次買足)
●分二批(六四比)買進，以趨近低點。(第一批買進6成，股價跌掉20%後，其餘四成資金再進場)
●分散風險，單一直持股不要超過20%。(沒人能保證公司恆久不變，為免買錯股或買到地雷股，應分散風險。)

27.賣股三原則：

●壞了(RoE永遠小於6%)
●貴了(預期報酬率小於0)
●換更好的

28.技術指標只有在股價明顯上漲或下跌時才準，盤整時很容易兩面挨耳光。

29.台股買賣手續費是0.1425%，證交稅是賣時課0.3%，短線太頻繁進出又賺不夠多，就會發生因為手續費或稅的虧損。

30.在實際兩稅合一後，公司繳的營業所得稅可用來扣抵個人所得稅，也就是股利所得以個人所得稅為準。

●個人所得稅 > 營業所得稅，補稅。
●個人所得稅 < 營業所得稅，退稅。
(個人所得稅6%~40%；營業所得稅最高25%)

31.所得稅高的人為了節稅，在除權前先跑一趟除完後再補不一定划得來，因為可扣抵稅率高的股票可抵減稅額。

32.買進建議：預期報酬率>15%，盈再率<80%，常利>5億，上市>2年，董監持股>10%。

33.賣出建議：預期報酬率<15%或本益比大於40倍。

看巴菲特如何买股票的

See how Warren Buffett buys share in this interview

http://youtu.be/X3T4CEN_ovc

股神趁乱出手 98亿壮大保险业务

纽约9日讯）尽管美股重挫，股神巴菲特无惧外围差劣气氛，贯彻别人恐慌时买入的投资格言，以32.4亿美元（约98亿令吉）收购大西洋保险，务求壮大旗下的保险业务。 　综合外电报导，股神旗下的波克夏哈萨威（Berkshire Hathaway）透过国民保险公司，以每股52美元（约156令吉）收购大西洋保险。
出价比大西洋保险5日的45.24美元（约135.72令吉）收市价溢价15%。
大西洋保险董事局指出，会认真考虑和研究报价，目前约有6250万股在市场流通。
波克夏哈萨威现在手持多达478.9亿美元（约1452亿令吉）现金，正找寻合适投资。
但随著利率维持低水平，巴菲特将投资重心放在股市，押注经济复苏，持有股权高达676亿美元（约2050亿令吉）。
美股这两周急挫，波克夏哈萨威首3项持股蒸发合共16亿美元（约48亿令吉），但美欧问题夹击令市场乱成一团，却正是股神捡便宜货的大好机会。