Wednesday, June 10, 2015

My stock selection criteria and strategy - Ooi Teik Bee

Dear valued readers,
This posting is not to challenge KC Chongnz, it is also not to compete for business with KC Chongnz. If you think KC Chongnz's strategy on FA is very good, go ahead and learn from him. I want to stress that I had spent a lot of money to learn FA, at last I learn most of my FA knowledge from him. I will continue to say that he is the best FA sifu here, the best of the best FA teacher. There is no question about it honestly. Thank you.
I do not want readers here to mistaken that I am very arrogant, my intention to post this article here is to share my knowledge how to pick the stock according to my methods to win big in stock market. I had tried it for last 3 years, the results were very good as shown below :-
How is my performance in I3investor.com ?
 
Please check my track records in I3investor.com. Below is the summary :
a. I made 57.5% gain in 1H 2013 (1H competition)
b. I made 46% gain in 4 months (2H competition)
c. My 2014 selections, made 61% gain within 12 months
d. My 2015 selections, made 59% gain within 5 months
Please check the aforesaid records in I3investor.com.
 
I also want to clarify that I did not say "FA is not good", I try to say that you want to win big in KLSE, you need more than just FA. Below is my clarification.
You can check with my subscribers, I will not recommend any stock to buy without fundamental. 
I also will not buy very good FA stock if the stock is a down trending stock. Hence I focus more on TA. 
FA is not my sole stock selection criteria. 

I do not want people here to twist my facts. 
To win big in stock market, FA alone is not good enough. You need a combination of market psychology, TA, FA and sectors to focus. 
I also use FA to invest, but it contribute only 25% of my total consideration. I focus more on TA. 
If FA is very good, technical chart is a down trending stock, I will not buy this stock even the margin of safety is very high. 
I am not a long term investor, I want high growth stock so that my ROI is very high in every year. 
My stock selection criteria
I select the stock based on the following criteria :-
  1. Breakout chart - TA
  2. Up trending stock - TA
  3. Undervalued stock - FA
  4. Growth stock -FA
  5. FA selection criteria
  6. a. EBIT growth > 10%
  7. b. EPS growth > 10%
  8. c. PER < 10
  9. d. EV/EBIT < 8
  10. e. Margin of safety > 30%
  11. f. Potential gain > 30%
The stock passed my stock selection criteria must passed items 1 and 2 first, otherwise, no deal. I want a breakout chart stock so that I do not need to keep this stock for very long time frame. Once the major resistance is broken, the stock price will skyrocket up very fast. Please note that I am not a long term investor, hence I want the price to move up very fast in short term.
 
My investment strategy
  1. TA comes first
  2. FA comes second
  3. Sector to focus 
  4. Market psychology
I do not use FA alone for my investment strategy, I use the combination of the above 4 strategies.
 
Sector to focus
It is no point that the FA is very good, the stock is in wrong sector. You must select the sectors that outperform the market.
According to KLSE indexes, the most bullish indexes are Technology Index and Ind/Prod Index. These 2 indexes are super bullish (please read my Weekly Market Outlook Report attached). We should focus on these 2 sectors. This is the reason why all my recommended stocks moved up despite a down market in KLSE.
The present scenario in KLSE and Malaysian economy as a whole, RM is very Weak and USD is very Strong. It favours Export sector or sale in USD stocks. You want to win big, you need to buy these Export stocks. FA is also very important here, it must be undervalued and high growth stocks that passed my FA stock selection criteria.
 
Market psychology
I need to study the chart to look for characteristic of the stock movement pattern. Some stocks move up very fast after consolidate near the support level. Some stocks move up very fast after breaking resistance. We should follow the trend in order to win big.
I always prefer to buy when everyone is fearful so that I can get good bargain. I like to sell when market is super bullish with high volume so that I can sell at very good price. You need to follow this type of strategy to maximise your profit.
 
My Golden rule
  • The company must make more profit (EBIT or Net Profit) in current year than last year (Growth).
  • Avoid if the current year result is worse than the previous year.
  • Avoid this stock if next 2 Quarter results do not show growth.
You can do it yourself
 
I had spelled out my stock selection criteria and strategy, you can try it yourself and please check out your result. I will be very happy if you can win big and make a lot of money.
 
If you do not have confidence to do it, you can attend my training course to learn these special skills.
 
Do you want to learn this investment skill ?
I provide the following services online for a small fee of RM 960.00 per year. 
  • I teach you TA lessons online.
  • I teach you FA lessons online.
  • I teach you market psychology.
  • I provide you a weekly market outlook report (KLSE + Worldwide market outlook)
  • I provide you a list of "KLSE stocks to watch".
  • I whatsapp you when there is a stock to buy or to sell.
If you are interested, please contact me @ tbooifx@gmail.com.
Enclosed is a copy of my "KLSE stocks to watch from 8/6/2015 to 12/6/2015". You can notice that most of the stock prices of my recommended stocks are moving up despite a weak market sentiment in KLSE.
Thank you.
Ooi
Dear valued clients,
 
I had started FA lessons in May 2015. I teach you to read my standard FA template. I cover Profit and Loss, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statements.
We will revise 1 TA lesson every week.
 
Special note:
Please note that this article is restricted for private reading only, you are not allowed to post it or reproduce it on any public forum or media. 
 
Oversea markets
  • All Asian markets are bearish - Nikkei (Japan) and SSE (China) are bullish. 
  • USA markets are bearish, however Nasdaq is bullish.
  • All European markets are bearish.
Bullish is defined as the index must crossed 20 Days EMA.
 
Super bullish means index must cross 200 days SMA. 
 
KLSE Index
The below KLSE indexes are bullish and Super bullish. 
  • Technology
  • Ind/Prod
Bullish is defined as the index must crossed 20 Days EMA.
 
Super bullish means index must cross 200 days SMA. 
 
The below KLSE indexes are still above 200 days MA. 
  • Consumer
Bull market is defined as the index must cross 200 Days SMA.
 
Strategy
  • KLSE is still bearish except the Technology and Ind/Prod Indexes are bullish.
  • My strategy is not suitable for short term trading or contra, it is suitable to Buy and Hold for 3 to 6 months.
  • My strategy is TA comes first, FA comes second. I must adhere to this rule all the times.
  • All stocks in my watch list must be very good in Fundamental.
  • Focus on Technology and Ind/Prod stocks.
Stocks to watch
 
The stock marked red colour are my favourite stocks.
 
StockBreakoutTarget priceGain %Stop loss
KESM 3.69 7.18 95% 3.41
ECS 1.68 2.46 46% 1.57
Geshen 0.73 1.05 44% 0.63
Hevea-WB 2.19 3.00 37% 1.99
VS Ind 4.33 5.25 21% 3.99
 
 
The price must cross 20 Days EMA.
Buy on Breakout - In a bullish market, the price breaks out from major resistance and breaks new high.
Buy on Weakness - It means the price had broken up in a bullish market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Support - In a down trend or correction market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Weakness - It means the price had broken up in a bullish market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Support - In a down trend or correction market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
 
Buy on weakness
 
StockSupportTarget priceGain %Stop loss
LCTH 0.495 0.76 54% 0.41
Frontkn 0.23 0.32 39% 0.18
Penta 0.69 0.94 36% 0.60
       
 
Recommendation
  • According to KLSE Indexes, KLSE is still bearish. I prefer to let market drops and we buy on weakness. I believe KLSE is almost bottom before the end of June 2015.
  • I believe Technology and Semicon stocks had started their up trending cycle again, please focus on them. 
  • Penta, LCTH, Frontkn and KESM are my favourite technology stocks. I want to buy on weakness. They are value for money. I intend to buy them and hold for 6 months to a year. 
  • All export stocks are coming back because of weakening of RM against USD. 
  • There is a cut loss in the recommended stocks, please adhere to it strictly. I will not inform you again.
Note : 
  • Please note that this article is restricted for private reading only, you are not allowed to post it or reproduce it on any public forum or media.
  • Many valued clients here are subscribers of my article, it is my job to ensure that my article is value for money. Hence I have to ensure that you win consistently in KLSE.
  • Please help not to share this information with others. Please note that I need to hire people to do FA. I need to get other valued members to subscribe for my articles at 960.00 per year. 
  • 寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
Thank you.
Ooi

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

[转贴] 《冷眼魔力》- 冷眼前辈持有的其中10家“牛股”,2015年平均涨幅60.64%!- Harryt30

记得当初我刚刚步入股市的时候,我根本不认识谁是冷眼。一直到阅读了好多位前辈的的投资Blog,我才知道了冷眼大师的存在。2013年我买了冷眼前辈的两本书,《三十年股票投资心得》以及《冷眼股票投资正道》。读完之后才发现自己在投资的第一年真的是走了许多弯路,还好醒觉的时候还不算太晚。现在我的选股法则就是买赚钱,派股息,盈利进步,前景亮眼的公司。当然偶尔也会“投机”一些基本面非常吸引人的优质股过过Trading的瘾。

话说我在2014年10月在Ali兄的Blog看到了他分享冷眼前辈的投资组合,我才知道冷眼这位大马股市的“泰山北斗”买进了什么股。虽然这不是冷眼前辈的所有持股,但是有这样的指标供我们这些散户参观考已经是非常可贵了。而且大家应该都听过《冷眼效应》,一些冷眼前辈提到或者买进的股票都回上涨。你们当中有谁会跟冷眼前辈的风呢??


冷眼前辈的部分持股其实可以在Cimb itrade的stock screener里找到,而我今天所用的的资料来源全部来在Ali Investment,Ali Blog我用自己的Excel Template筛选出冷眼前辈持有股中表现比较出色的10家“牛”股,看看大马“巴菲特”的选股方式跟我们这些散户之间的差别。话说在前头,冷眼前辈的某些持股也有表现欠佳的,而我今天分享的当然是人人爱看的赚钱股啦。
浅谈冷眼前辈其中10家持股:

  • 看看以上的10家公司,2015年平均的涨幅高达60.64%。而且这是在大盘不乐观下的表现,可见这个组合的潜能是多么的惊人。假设KLCI指数在年底可以稳在1,800点以上,上面组合的平均return突破100%也是有可能的。
  • 去年大盘指数下跌接近5%,可是上图的10家公司只有PANSAR是下跌的,其余9家都有不同幅度的涨幅。2014年平均涨幅44.80%。
  • 2013年暂时是这3年来股市表现最好的一年,当时KLCI指数上涨了10%。所以以上10家公司的平均涨幅有93.66%也不出奇。
  • 2012年是大型股的一年,所以小型股的表现差强人意,平均涨幅只有18.85%。因此才有了2013年中小型股爆发的热潮。
  • HEVEA今年可说是独领风骚,今天突破历史新高,全年的涨幅为113.86%.难能可贵的是PE暂时才9.49,低于10。只要美金继续走强,HEVEA的业绩盈利在下个季度有望继续走高,股价也会跟着水涨船高。
  • PRLEXUS也是一家出口公司,去年派发好红股,盈利也不错,今年的涨幅就有90.76%。以现在这种趋势来看,出口股还是会继续主导市场的。
  • SKPRES是我不熟悉的一家公司,但是今年涨幅也有76.56%。主要可能是因为收购TECNIC的以及获得DYSON无线吸尘器合约的利害因素所致。
  • HOMERITZ, LATITUD和POHUAT3支家具股的涨幅都超过50%,冷眼前辈几乎扫完家具股,至于LIIHEN我就不清楚了。
  • SCGM去年的涨幅就非常的惊人,今年5个月多涨了64.58%。很好奇冷眼前辈什么时候会选择套利。
  • ECS是今年奇军突起的科技股,过去4年股价的表现都平平无奇,今年却上涨了47.46%. 主要是因为获得中国小米委任为大马分销商,加上盈利突飞猛进,股价不涨也难。
  • PANSAR 是因为看到冷眼前辈组合才认识的股票,最新一季的盈利跟去年同期相比上涨了149.21%。难道冷眼前辈能预知未来??我猜测是他在Annual report里读到了一些利好消息,所以才买进PANSAR。高人就是不一样。:P
  • GADANG是冷眼前辈组合里少有的建筑股,现在PE为7.32。我认为是严重被低估的,所以我上个月也买进了不少。今年的涨幅是8.89%,算是不好不坏。但是我相信长期还是会有看头的,所以静观其变。
 
总结:
如果仔细一看,上述10家公司的平均PE是12.74。4家超过10以及6家低于10。假设排出PE最高的SKPRES(28.9)以及SCGM(19.53),剩余8家公司的平均PE还是低于10的。所以我也跟着这套选股方式,尽量寻找PE低于10的潜质好股。不过最近风雨欲来,大家还是要小心为妙,步步为营吧。
 
 
*我在RM1.80的时候把TAMBUN给砍光了,最近又看到冷眼前辈也套利离场。不知道散户们看了会不会惶恐并跟着撤离呢??TAMBUN股价现在是RM1.72,会不会继续探底呢?看着吧。
 
 
 
Harryt30
16.40p.m.
2015.06.08
 
http://harryteo.blogspot.com/2015/06/1072-1020156064.html