As I was writing this, most stocks have started the rally.
Below are just some stocks which I think can have in my portfolio in order to have reasonable return. Buying and selling at your own risk. I will give my own desired cost to buy, and also will have more analysis on each stock moving forward.
I think by focusing more on just 10-15 stocks will make us more focus, also the same time my website/ blog here can be more focus on analysis which I think most of us here readers wanted.
I shall speak lesser on market/ economics, and might just focus more on analysis.
2016 STOCK PORTFOLIO
1. KESM- RM4.00 range
2. HHGroup-RM0.45 range
3. GSB-RM0.09 to 0.10 range
4. Elsoft-RM1.75-1.80 range
5. Landmark-RM1.20-1.30 range
6. GENM-RM4.00-4.20 range
7. GENTING-WA-RM1.05-1.10 range
8. Solution-RM0.30-0.33 range
9. Gadang- RM1.40-1.45 range
10. PerakCorp- RM3.00-3.30 range
some others still monitoring now: BTM-WB, LFECorp.
Good luck investing.
Investment is a longterm commitment. I would prefer to have more exposure only after Sep2015, should FED choose to hike slowly.
“The secret to successful investing is to figure out the value of something-and then pay a lot less.” Joel Grenblatt
Monday, July 27, 2015
Sunday, July 26, 2015
Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: Elsoft
ELSOFT Research Bhd (Fundamental: 3/3, Valuation: 2.1/3) offers investors an exposure to the robust growth in mobile devices and the increasing use of LED (light emitting diode) in consumer products.
The Penang based technology player designs and develops automated test equipment for companies to inspect LEDs. LEDs are a component in printed circuit boards used mainly in the semiconductor, consumer products, optoelectronic and automotive industries.
Elsoft recently completed its transfer from the ACE to the Main Market on Jan 22. The MSC-status company has also just successfully renewed its pioneer status and will enjoy tax exemption for the next 10 years until 2025.
Its underlying business has been doing very well. Revenue grew at a CAGR of over 41.4% between 2010 and 2014, to RM45.14 million. Net profit grew by an outsized 50.4% annually over the same period, to RM 19.78 million. Elsoft runs a lean ship, with just 61 staff, translating into a high productivity of RM740,000 of revenue per employee.
Moving forward, Elsoft plans to expand its customer base and produce LED testing equipment for medical devices, which it expects to boost revenue by 20%. Meanwhile, its associate company, Lesoshoppe is seeking to list on the ACE market, to fund the expansion of its trading equipment business in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Elsoft has a strong balance sheet with double-digit ROE and is in a net cash position of RM32.3 million. This is supportive of its minimum 40% dividend payout policy.
Indeed, Elsoft has been rewarding shareholders with more, paying 50-73% of annual earnings in 2011-2013. Recently, Elsoft declared a dividend of 5 sen per share, bringing the total dividends in 2014 to 7 sen which translates into a net yield of 4%. The stock is trading at a trailing 12-month P/E of 15.7 times, which is attractive relative to its strong double-digit growth.
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 30, 2015.
ELSOFT - Diversifying into automotive and medical with technology
Exchange: KLSE
Current Price: RM 1.870
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 181,132,000
Market Capitalization: RM 338.7 million
Public Float: 18%
Industry: Technology Equipments
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
| Previous FY | TTM | MRQ | Criteria (Annualised) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | ||||
| Historical P(EBITDA)R | 11.23 | 13.09 | <10 | |
| Trailing PTBV | 4.21 | |||
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% | - | ||
| Capital Structure | ||||
| Long Term Debt/Total Asset | 0.8% | 0.6% | <30% | |
| Total Debt/Total Asset | 6.7% | 5.1% | <60% | |
| Management Effectiveness | ||||
| ROE (use EBITDA) | 29.2% | 41.9% | 6.5% | >15% |
| ROA (use EBITDA) | 26.4% | 38.7% | 6.2% | >6% |
| ROIC (use EBITDA) | 27.2% | 39.7% | 6.4% | >4% |
| Liquidity | ||||
| Cash Ratio | 1.84 | 3.80 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 6.39 | 13.24 | >0.8 | |
| Profitability | ||||
| EBITDA Margin | 47.5% | 49.1% | 49.3% | >5% |
| EBITDA (cents) | 11.85 | 13.89 | 2.80 | |
| Cash Flow | ||||
| Operating Cash Flow/Net Profit | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.61 | >0.5 |
| Free Cash Flow/Net Profit | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.59 | >0.2 |
| YoY | QoQ | Criteria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | ||||
| Revenue | 79.0% | 144.6% | >10% | |
| EBITDA | 82.6% | 265.1% | >5% | |
| EBITDA/Equity | 50.7% | 188.9% | >0% |
Comment: Valuation ratios failed slightly whereas all other criterias pass with flying colours. This is fine for a technology stock.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
Advantages: Large cash holdings in USD to further boost company performance. ELSOFT also has a pioneer status for 100% tax exemption on its earnings. Business is also well diversified to prevent dependence on growth of smart devices only. ELSOFT provides for other segments such as the automotive and medical industry.
Risks: ELSOFT may see increased competition from other companies such as MMSV, FRONTKN and INARI.
RESULTS
Target Price: RM 2.930
Potential Upside: 57% (based on current price)
Margin of Safety: 36% (based on current price)
Maximum Entry Price (Fundamental): RM 2.050
Recommended Entry Price (Technical): RM 1.780
Cut Loss: RM 1.600
Holding Period: Until end of August 2016 (After QR)
Analysis on Plenitude
一篇投稿者对于PLENITUDE的分享，但是属于有一点另类，希望大家会有兴趣。。
PLENITUDE is an unloved stock. How else would you describe a stock with a Price-to-Book ratio of 0.55? Investors are wary about the property market as a whole and many are already waiting for “the bubble” to burst. As a result, the property stocks are punished, and PLENITUDE has seen the value of its stock dropped more than 40% in 10 months from the high of RM3.50 (Aug 2014) to the current level of RM2.10.
With the share price hovering above RM2.00, is the worst over? Or is this just the beginning of a long slide into the oblivion for PLENITUDE? If Benjamin Graham is still alive today, would he give a knowing smile before quickly load up as much PLENITUDE stocks as he can get his hands onto? I’m curious because that would be very close to paying 50 cents for a dollar.
On the quest to solve the mystery above, let’s dig a little deeper and see how PLENTIUDE’s share price has fared against its book value over the past few years, as illustrated in Chart 1 below.
Chart 1
There are a few things we can learn from Chart 1, noticeably the following:
1. The PLENITUDE’s share has never traded above its book value since 2011, and it would be unrealistic to expect it to do so in the near future. While this is not unusual for property stocks, it still feels a bit underwhelming, especially if you compare it to other more popular players such as MATRIX (1.9), TAMBUN (1.6), SPSETIA (1.2) and HUAYANG (1.1).
2. The share price has seemingly gone full cycle, starting from RM2.18 in Jan 2011, hitting the heights of RM3.15 in August 2014, before crashing back down to the current level of RM2.00. If you have bought the shares in early 2011 and held until now, you would be making a small loss.
3. With the share price gyrating, the Net Assets per share, however, continues to grow steadily from RM2.78 in January 2011 to RM3.73 in January 2015. That is a 34% growth in 4 years which translates to a CAGR of 7.63%.
Armed with the information above, what would be the game plan for PLENITUDE?
As illustrated in Table 1 in the Appendix, historically PLENITUDE has been trading at P/B ratio between 53% and 87% since 2011, with the average being 68%. Therefore, I have the following simple hypothesis for the share, i.e.
1. BUY whenever the P/B ratio drops below 60%
2. SELL whenever the P/B ratio hits 80%
Over the past four and a half year, there have been several buying and selling opportunities that meet the conditions above, which are highlighted in Green and Red in Table 1 respectively. For example, if you have bought the stock at RM1.84 in September 2012 and sold at RM3.04 in September 2014, your investment would have returned a CAGR of 28%. Not bad for a boring stock!
Interestingly, we are now heading into another period of buying opportunities. However, before jumping to conclusion, we should look at the recent NOMAD acquisition and see how the book value of PLENITUDE will be affected. Unfortunately, due to the dilution of the new shares, the Net Assets per Share for PLENITUDE will drop from RM3.80 to RM3.64 after the acquisition of the hotel group. Nevertheless, its P/B ratio will remain at a relatively low level of 58% and below the 60% buying threshold.
Therefore, we are left with one final question. Do you dare to be a contrarian?
Appendix
PLENITUDE’s historical Price-to-Book ratio from Jan 2011 to June 2015
Intrinsic Value of PLENITUDE based on Price-to-Book ratio
这个月投稿大赛第6篇，这个月的稿不再局限于投资理财哦，不知道能否吸引到一些好的文章出现呢～。～？如果看到不错，记得多多留言支持哦，这个也是对这位参赛者的一点帮忙和鼓励哦^_^，有兴趣参赛的朋友，也可以把你欲投稿的作品，电邮到windscopo@gmail.com，请先了解奖品与条规。。
PLENITUDE is an unloved stock. How else would you describe a stock with a Price-to-Book ratio of 0.55? Investors are wary about the property market as a whole and many are already waiting for “the bubble” to burst. As a result, the property stocks are punished, and PLENITUDE has seen the value of its stock dropped more than 40% in 10 months from the high of RM3.50 (Aug 2014) to the current level of RM2.10.
With the share price hovering above RM2.00, is the worst over? Or is this just the beginning of a long slide into the oblivion for PLENITUDE? If Benjamin Graham is still alive today, would he give a knowing smile before quickly load up as much PLENITUDE stocks as he can get his hands onto? I’m curious because that would be very close to paying 50 cents for a dollar.
On the quest to solve the mystery above, let’s dig a little deeper and see how PLENTIUDE’s share price has fared against its book value over the past few years, as illustrated in Chart 1 below.
Chart 1
Note: Monthly (instead of daily) share prices are used.
There are a few things we can learn from Chart 1, noticeably the following:
1. The PLENITUDE’s share has never traded above its book value since 2011, and it would be unrealistic to expect it to do so in the near future. While this is not unusual for property stocks, it still feels a bit underwhelming, especially if you compare it to other more popular players such as MATRIX (1.9), TAMBUN (1.6), SPSETIA (1.2) and HUAYANG (1.1).
2. The share price has seemingly gone full cycle, starting from RM2.18 in Jan 2011, hitting the heights of RM3.15 in August 2014, before crashing back down to the current level of RM2.00. If you have bought the shares in early 2011 and held until now, you would be making a small loss.
3. With the share price gyrating, the Net Assets per share, however, continues to grow steadily from RM2.78 in January 2011 to RM3.73 in January 2015. That is a 34% growth in 4 years which translates to a CAGR of 7.63%.
Armed with the information above, what would be the game plan for PLENITUDE?
As illustrated in Table 1 in the Appendix, historically PLENITUDE has been trading at P/B ratio between 53% and 87% since 2011, with the average being 68%. Therefore, I have the following simple hypothesis for the share, i.e.
1. BUY whenever the P/B ratio drops below 60%
2. SELL whenever the P/B ratio hits 80%
Over the past four and a half year, there have been several buying and selling opportunities that meet the conditions above, which are highlighted in Green and Red in Table 1 respectively. For example, if you have bought the stock at RM1.84 in September 2012 and sold at RM3.04 in September 2014, your investment would have returned a CAGR of 28%. Not bad for a boring stock!
Interestingly, we are now heading into another period of buying opportunities. However, before jumping to conclusion, we should look at the recent NOMAD acquisition and see how the book value of PLENITUDE will be affected. Unfortunately, due to the dilution of the new shares, the Net Assets per Share for PLENITUDE will drop from RM3.80 to RM3.64 after the acquisition of the hotel group. Nevertheless, its P/B ratio will remain at a relatively low level of 58% and below the 60% buying threshold.
NOMAD
|
PLENITU
|
COMBINED
| |
31.3.2015
|
31.3.2015
|
31.3.2015
| |
RM'000
|
RM'000
|
RM'000
| |
Total Assets
|
453,295
|
1,198,716
|
1,652,011
|
Total Liabilities
|
90,709
|
171,807
|
262,516
|
Total Equity
|
362,586
|
1,026,909
|
1,389,495
|
NOSH
|
223,068
|
270,000
|
381,534
|
Net Asset per Share
|
3.64
| ||
Share Price
|
2.10
| ||
P/B ratio
|
58%
|
Appendix
PLENITUDE’s historical Price-to-Book ratio from Jan 2011 to June 2015
Table 1
Date
|
Closing Price
|
Net Assets
|
P/B ratio
|
After NOMAD
|
2.10
|
3.64
|
58%
|
01/06/2015
|
2.00
|
3.80
|
53%
|
01/05/2015
|
2.10
|
3.80
|
55%
|
01/04/2015
|
2.33
|
3.80
|
61%
|
02/03/2015
|
2.31
|
3.73
|
62%
|
02/02/2015
|
2.32
|
3.73
|
62%
|
01/01/2015
|
2.28
|
3.73
|
61%
|
01/12/2014
|
2.29
|
3.71
|
62%
|
03/11/2014
|
2.60
|
3.71
|
70%
|
01/10/2014
|
2.82
|
3.71
|
76%
|
01/09/2014
|
3.04
|
3.63
|
84%
|
01/08/2014
|
3.15
|
3.63
|
87%
|
01/07/2014
|
2.92
|
3.63
|
80%
|
02/06/2014
|
2.79
|
3.59
|
78%
|
01/05/2014
|
2.82
|
3.59
|
79%
|
01/04/2014
|
2.85
|
3.59
|
79%
|
03/03/2014
|
2.60
|
3.50
|
74%
|
03/02/2014
|
2.58
|
3.50
|
74%
|
01/01/2014
|
2.50
|
3.50
|
71%
|
02/12/2013
|
2.59
|
3.46
|
75%
|
01/11/2013
|
2.74
|
3.46
|
79%
|
01/10/2013
|
2.62
|
3.46
|
76%
|
02/09/2013
|
2.29
|
3.37
|
68%
|
01/08/2013
|
2.09
|
3.37
|
62%
|
01/07/2013
|
2.15
|
3.37
|
64%
|
03/06/2013
|
2.14
|
3.18
|
67%
|
01/05/2013
|
2.25
|
3.18
|
71%
|
01/04/2013
|
1.90
|
3.18
|
60%
|
01/03/2013
|
1.95
|
3.13
|
62%
|
01/02/2013
|
1.74
|
3.13
|
56%
|
01/01/2013
|
1.80
|
3.13
|
58%
|
03/12/2012
|
1.83
|
3.15
|
58%
|
01/11/2012
|
1.80
|
3.15
|
57%
|
01/10/2012
|
1.92
|
3.15
|
61%
|
03/09/2012
|
1.84
|
3.13
|
59%
|
01/08/2012
|
1.92
|
3.13
|
61%
|
02/07/2012
|
1.87
|
3.13
|
60%
|
01/06/2012
|
1.86
|
3.06
|
61%
|
01/05/2012
|
1.83
|
3.06
|
60%
|
02/04/2012
|
1.98
|
3.06
|
65%
|
01/03/2012
|
2.04
|
3.02
|
68%
|
01/02/2012
|
2.12
|
3.02
|
70%
|
03/01/2012
|
2.13
|
3.02
|
71%
|
01/12/2011
|
1.95
|
2.98
|
65%
|
01/11/2011
|
1.96
|
2.98
|
66%
|
04/10/2011
|
1.98
|
2.98
|
66%
|
02/09/2011
|
1.80
|
2.91
|
62%
|
01/08/2011
|
1.87
|
2.91
|
64%
|
01/07/2011
|
2.06
|
2.91
|
71%
|
01/06/2011
|
2.09
|
2.83
|
74%
|
03/05/2011
|
2.03
|
2.83
|
72%
|
01/04/2011
|
2.08
|
2.83
|
73%
|
01/03/2011
|
2.07
|
2.78
|
74%
|
02/02/2011
|
2.19
|
2.78
|
79%
|
03/01/2011
|
2.18
|
2.78
|
78%
|
Intrinsic Value of PLENITUDE based on Price-to-Book ratio
Table 2
P/B ratio
|
Intrinsic Value
|
MOS
|
Potential Gain
| |
Min
|
53%
|
2.00
|
-5%
|
-5%
|
Max
|
87%
|
3.30
|
36%
|
57%
|
Median
|
67%
|
2.54
|
17%
|
21%
|
Average
|
68%
|
2.58
|
18%
|
23%
|
Date: 24/6/2015
Share Price: RM 2.10
作者
SJ
股票的合理价或买入价等都是纯粹投稿者的个人功课，数据或许有所偏差，所以资料仅供参考，并不是买卖的指标，买卖前请自行评估风险，本内容并没有教导或怂恿买卖的建议，请别对号入座。
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