AirAsia is MER’s top pick in the Malaysian aviation sector

Recently, Malindo Air announced that they will be moving their jet operations to Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) from the KLIA2 terminal starting from March 15. The move is in line with their effort to better serve the customers with the airline evolving to a full service airline.

Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report on Monday (22 Feb), expressing its positive views on this development as the other Malaysian-based airlines including AirAsia can concentrate on their core businesses. MER also mentions the various benefits AirAsia may have from this event while reiterating the short-haul low cost airline as its top pick. Read on excerpt from a research report titled “A more rational market”…

Event

• MER sees Malindo Air’s decision to evolve into a full service airline and Malaysia Airlines’ capacity cut as positive for the Malaysian aviation sector. Importantly, MER’s random checks of fares suggest a more rationale pricing environment. While the weaker Ringgit may hurt outbound traffic, MER continues to like AirAsia as it benefits from passenger trade-down. AirAsia is trading at 7.5x 17E EV/EBITDAR, below its average trading multiple of 8.9x. MER’s target price (TP) for AirAsia implies 89% upside from current share price.

Impact

• Malaysia Airlines capacity cuts – positive. MER has identified several routes where AirAsia and AirAsia X should gain market share on the back of Malaysia Airlines’ capacity cut. MER expects load factors of airlines to improve and reduce excess capacity in the market. Also, Malaysia Airlines 30% seat cut to Australia bodes well for AirAsia X. In FY14, the Australian business generated negative EBITDAR from previously 44% of total FY12A EBITDAR for AirAsia X.

• Malindo Air evolving into a full service airline – positive. MER views the development positively, as the four key Malaysian-based airlines can focus on their core segments – Malaysia Airlines (medium to long-haul full service), Malindo (short-haul full service), AirAsia (short-haul low cost) and AirAsia X (long-haul low cost). Both Malindo and Malaysia Airlines were the cause of lower yields for AirAsia in 2013. Also, post Malindo's move to KLIA main terminal, MER estimates the AirAsia group of airlines will have 95% (from 84%) of seat capacity out of KLIA2, which charges a lower passenger airport tax than KLIA main terminal.

• More rational pricing environment – positive. MER’s random checks on fares on AirAsia and AirAsia X key routes show that Malaysia Airlines and Malindo ticket prices are at a premium to AirAsia and AirAsia X ticket prices. This should support AirAsia’s load factors, especially as down-trading takes place.

Outlook

• MER reiterates AirAsia as its top pick in the Malaysian aviation sector on (1) it is a beneficiary of passenger down-trading; (2) a more conducive operating environment, with clearer market segmentation post Malindo’s decision to become a full service airline; and (3) upside risk from more incoming Chinese tourists to Malaysia due to its highest market share on Malaysia-China routes, driven by having the highest number of routes.

• AirAsia is currently trading at a 13% discount to its net fleet asset value of RM1.57 and 47% discount to MER’s sum-of-part (SOP) TP of RM2.59.

• MER estimates Malaysia Airports can garner a profit after tax (PAT) uplift of ~RM25m (~11% of 17E PAT) on the back of Malindo’s move to KLIA main terminal.

• MER rates AirAsia X as Neutral, as we remain cautious over its ability to sustain profits for four consecutive quarters in 2016.

Source: Macquarie Research - 25 Feb 2016

20大马股息王 10年沒虧過

（吉隆坡23日訊）馬股績優股處處，10年前的仙股，今日已變成投資者追逐的“達令股”；統計顯示，至少20家上市公司連續10年派發介于4.24%至9.5%的高股息，同時持續錄得盈利、營運現金流和自由現金流，多家股價漲幅逾5倍，甚至激增近8倍！
　根據Equitiestracker.com統計的馬股首20家高息股榜，大石洋灰（TASEK，4448，主要板工業）以平均每年9.5%股息回酬率，成為“股息王中王”！除了股息傲人，該公司在10年間不管盈利、營運現金還是自由現金流，表現都超越其他上市公司。

　在20大榜單中，健力士英格（GAB，3255，主要板消費）以9.098%股息回酬率，名列第2。星媒體集團（STAR，6084，主要板貿服）以7.63%位居第3。

　《中國報》統計這20家上市公司過去10年股價發現，榜單中多家公司股價從單位數升至雙位數，更有多家公司原本只是“仙股”。

合成工業股價漲最多

　部分公司在這期間有進行企業活動如削資、資本回退、拆股、發紅股或附加股等，以10年前即2006年2月16日的經調整閉市價，來比較週三（17日）的閉市價，其中16家公司股價皆上升，漲幅最高是合成工業（HUPSENG，5024，主要板消費），高達787%！股價從14.2仙（經調整），漲至1.26令吉。

　值得一提的是，該公司曾進行企業活動，對上一次是在2014年，將每股面值50仙股票拆成5股10仙股票，再以3送1比例派發紅股。

　至于“股息王中王”大石洋灰過去多年面值維持在1令吉，股價亦穩健攀升，近日股價亦因股息超預期一再衝高，從10年前的3.114令吉（經調整），攀升了385%至15.10令吉。

　該公司2015財年股息增至1.10令吉，全年股息回酬高達7.4%，截至2015年末季底的現金達2億4200萬令吉。

藍籌股演進史
子母牌牛奶10年漲5.8倍

高價股不是朝夕間形成，除了大石洋灰的股價從10年前的單位數升至雙位數，還有已晉升為藍籌股的健力士英格（GAB，3255，主要板消費）和子母牌牛奶（DLADY，3026，主要板消費）。

　健力士英格股價截至今年2月17日閉市報14令吉，較10年前的5.80令吉（股價皆經調整）上漲了141%。

　此外，未曾拆股的Panasonic製造（PANAMY，3719，主要板消費），10年前的股價已不低，當時2006年開市價位為9.60令吉，至同年2月16日升至10.30令吉。比較2月17日閉市價25.10令吉，漲了144%。

　另一家股價看來遙不可及的股息王子母牌牛奶，2006年2月時的股價僅7.65令吉，但同年8月攀至10令吉以上價位。

　適逢2008/09年亞洲金融風暴，該股一度跌至8令吉水平。

　但2009年5月，該股再返10令吉以上；2011年10月28日衝破20令吉，不到半年時間，該股于2012年2月29日已上探30令吉，3月開始即走高于30令吉以上。

　比較10年前的7.65令吉，子母牌牛奶截至2月17日閉市價為52令吉，共上漲了5.8倍。

健力士英格近半為消費股
股息回酬最高

在這20家股息王中，近半為消費類股，共有9家或佔45%；例如飲食業者健力士英格、合成工業、子母牌牛奶和阿波羅（APOLLO，6432，主要板消費）。

　這當中，以健力士英格股息回酬率最高，達9.1%。其余3家回酬率介于4.2%至4.6%。

　其余領域類股，依序是工業類股（5家）、貿易與服務業（4家），及2家基建股，包括數碼電訊和環城公路（LITRAK，6645，主要板基建）。

　另一方面，這20家公司過去10年的盈利、現金流和股息不斷，但受2008/09年金融風暴影響，多家公司股價仍慘遭滑鐵盧。

　例如林集靈（CSCENIC，7202，主要板消費），10年前股價約1.12令吉，但于2009年跌至30仙左右。該股截至上週三收在1.23令吉。

　宇琦科技（UCHITEC，7100，主要板工業）也在當年一度跌至74.5仙價位。該股上週三收在1.64令吉。

海鷗集團
仙股變優質股

仙股翻身成功的佼佼者之一，海鷗集團（HAIO，7668，主要板貿服）平均股息回酬率達6.25%，在2010年進行企業活動前，股價曾攀至雙位數價位。

　該公司在2010年完成拆股和紅股計劃，每股面值1令吉股票，拆成2股50仙股票，再以5送1比例派發紅股，及私下配售10%股權。同年3月15日除權前閉市價為10.40令吉。

　在調整企業活動后，海鷗集團10年前股價僅39.8仙，比2月17日閉市價2.38令吉，激增5倍！

　另外，美特工業（MAGNI，7087，主要板消費）10年前股價僅56仙，比2月17日閉市價4.35令吉，勁升6.8倍或677%；在20家股息王當中，美特工業股息回酬率5.5%，但股價漲幅僅次于合成工業（787%）。

　不同的是，美特工業未曾拆股，目前面值仍是1令吉。該公司股價是在踏入2013年才開始飆升，同年5月升至1令吉以上擺脫仙股身分后，即平步青雲穩健的往北攀升。

投資者達令股
數碼電訊頻回退現金

數碼電訊（DIGI，6947，主要板基建）誘人的高股息加上股票增值迅速，可說是許多投資者的“達令股”。根據Equitiestracker.com，該公司4個季度的股息回酬率達4.95%，是唯一進榜的電訊公司。

　該公司在2005年至2006年間，曾進行兩次大規模的削資和資本回退計劃，多年來也多次大手筆派發特別股息，登上股息王榜單可說是預料之內。

　在上述兩輪資本回退中，數碼電訊每股分別回退75仙和60仙現金，面值先從每股1令吉減至25仙，再從25仙減至10仙。

　該公司股價之后續節節攀升，在2011年宣佈拆股前，其股價已在30令吉以上。

　數碼電訊于2011年9月8日宣佈，把每股面值10仙的股票，1拆10股，變成目前每股面值1仙的股票。拆股后，其股價目前遊走在4至6令吉水平，至今最高價位是去年2月創下的6.65令吉。

　在考量一連串企業活動后，該公司10年前經調整股價僅82.5仙，比2月17日閉市價4.99令吉，飆漲了5倍。

chinapress.com | 24 Feb 2016

RESORTS WORLD GENTING TO SUBSTANTIALLY EXPAND AND ADD NEW FACILITIES

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=71261&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

KUALA LUMPUR, 23 February 2016 – Genting Malaysia Berhad ("GENM" or "The Group") announces that it will be significantly expanding and adding new facilities under the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan ("GITP"). This will increase the total capital investment from RM5 billion as announced earlier to an estimated RM10.38 billion.
 GITP, a major 10-year master plan launched in December 2013 for the redevelopment and transformation of Resorts World Genting ("RWG"), the internationally-acclaimed integrated resort, is currently being carried out in phases. It will offer an extensive and wide array of new and exciting entertainment options, unique to visitors from across the region.


The capital investment under Phase 1 of the GITP will increase from RM4 billion to RM8.11 billion. Under this phase, the first-ever world class branded Twentieth Century Fox World theme park will see a substantial increase in investment with more spectacular, thrilling and state-of-the-art rides than previously announced. Total investment in the Twentieth Century Fox World theme park is expected to exceed RM2 billion. With the engagement of some of the best talent in the Hollywood movie-industry to help in the design of the park, this is targeted to become a unique and compelling world-class theme park.

Meanwhile the indoor theme park will undergo a major transformation turning into a unique themed entertainment attraction offering a total of 18 rides from the existing nine, providing a new and enjoyable entertainment for both young and old alike.

Another attraction is the Sky Avenue which is poised to become the latest lifestyle mall at the Resort. With its unique position as a shopping destination situated 6,000 feet above sea level, it will complement the Group’s plan to achieve its vision of attracting 30 million visitors to the Resort by year 2020.

Sky Avenue will transcend the sense of being a mere shopping destination, into the realm of a unique lifestyle experience. This vibrant shopping and dining landmark covers a gross floor area of close to a million square feet. One of the attractive features of the mall is that it is designed with open air decks that form a perfect platform for cafes and al fresco dining. With a stunning view of the Twentieth Century Fox World and an array of restaurants, its immense dining piazza offers a relaxed and inviting ambiance that’s just perfect for al fresco dining with family and friends. These exciting additions will serve to create a shopping and dining experience that will distinguish RWG from other resorts in the region.

Further complementing the Group’s expansion plans is the Genting Premium Outlets which will be operated at the mid-hill under the Genting umbrella. Supporting infrastructure and facilities will be enhanced and expanded to facilitate increase in visitation and to ease accessibility to RWG. This includes an additional 8,000 car park bays, bringing the total parking bays to about 18,000. The new high-speed cable car system will be able to carry up to twice the passenger capacity of the current system from the mid-hill to the hilltop.

The expansion plans also include a substantial increase in staff accommodation to cater for an additional 7,000 new job opportunities at the Resort as well as new power sub-stations and water treatment plants to cater for future growth demands.

Phase 2 of the development which is estimated to cost over RM2 billion will see the construction of additional luxury hotels at RWG, as well as an enviable new world-class show arena with a seating capacity of up to 10,000. These developments to be undertaken over the next few years, will progress in tandem with the dynamic economic environment and market demands. The Group is cognizant of the constant need to keep on adapting to the changes in consumer preferences and remains committed to further enhancing service and quality of guest experiences at RWG.

Meanwhile, the construction and development works for GITP are progressing well. Its first offering - the new 1,300-room First World Hotel Tower 3 – has been fully operational since June 2015. Other GITP attractions and facilities are expected to be opened in stages from the second half of 2016. Once completed, the Group anticipates that the GITP would elevate RWG’s position as a major tourism attraction and the destination of choice in the region.
About Genting Malaysia
  Genting Malaysia is one of the leading leisure and hospitality corporations in the world. Listed on Bursa Malaysia with approximately RM24 billion in market capitalisation, Genting Malaysia owns and operates major properties including Resorts World Genting, Resorts World Casino New York City, Resorts World Bimini, Resorts World Birmingham and other casinos in the United Kingdom.

Resorts World Genting is a premier leisure and entertainment resort in Malaysia. It is equipped with over 9,000 rooms spread across 6 hotels, theme parks and entertainment attractions, dining and retail outlets, international shows and business convention facilities. The Group has embarked on a 10-year master plan to reinvigorate and transform Resorts World Genting under the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan. This includes the development of the world’s first Twentieth Century Fox World theme park. Its first offering - the new 1,300-room First World Hotel Tower 3 - was fully opened in June 2015. First World Hotel is now the "World’s Largest Hotel", as recognised by Guinness World Records. The other attractions and facilities under the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan are expected to be opened in stages from the second half of 2016.

In Malaysia, Genting Malaysia also owns and operates Resorts World Kijal in Terengganu and Resorts World Langkawi in Langkawi.

In the United Kingdom, Genting Malaysia is one of the largest casino operators and a leading innovator in the provision of high quality customer-focused gaming. It operates 6 casinos in London and 36 casinos in the UK provinces. The Group’s latest property, Resorts World Birmingham, was opened in October 2015.

In the United States of America, Genting Malaysia operates Resorts World Casino New York City, the first and only video gaming machine facility in New York City, at the site of Aqueduct Racetrack. As a premier entertainment hub, Resorts World Casino New York City offers the ultimate gaming and entertainment experience, with electronic gaming machines, shows, events and culinary delights.

In the Bahamas, the Group operates Resorts World Bimini, which features a casino, villas, other accommodations, restaurants and bars, resort amenities and the largest marina in the Bahamas.

Genting Malaysia is a member of the Genting Group, one of Asia’s leading and best-managed multinationals. The Genting Group is led by Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, a visionary entrepreneur who has established Resorts World branded properties in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, the United States, the Bahamas, the United Kingdom and soon in South Korea, as well as spearheading global investments in oil palm plantations, power generation, oil & gas, property development, cruise, biotechnology and other industries.

For more information, visit http://www.gentingmalaysia.com or contact ir.genm@genting.com.

For information on the major properties of Genting Malaysia

Resorts World Genting, visit www.rwgenting.com

Genting Casinos UK Limited, visit www.gentingcasinos.co.uk

Resorts World Casino New York City, visit www.rwnewyork.com

Resorts World Birmingham, visit www.resortsworldbirmingham.co.uk

Resorts World Bimini, visit www.rwbimini.com

Genting Malaysia - Doubling Up On GITP

Genting Malaysia surprised the market by doubling the allocation for its GITP to MYR10.4bn. While we continue to believe that this would help to spur visitation interests to its flagship Genting Highlands in the long run, we are wary of the series of delays in the proposed timeline to complete the project. As such, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance with our SOPbased TP fine-tuned to MYR4.46 (from MYR4.18, 2% upside).

GITP revamped. The announced budget increase in Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) caught us by surprise, as the group assured investors during last quarter’s briefing that the capex allocation remained unchanged at MYR5bn. Management explained that the revised budget will help to expand current as well as introduce new facilities. Although details are scant at this juncture, we understand that Phase 1 of the revamped GITP will now cost MYR8bn-8.4bn. This includes the proposed 20thCentury Fox outdoor theme park (which will now cost over MYR2bn vis-à-vis MYR1bn previously), revamping of its indoor theme park, construction of new staff accommodationsand investments in new supporting infrastructure. Phase 2 of the development will cost over MYR2bn and involve the construction of new luxury hotels as well as a new show arena. While we continue to believe that this would help to spur visitation interest to its flagship Genting Highlands in the long run, we are wary of the series of delays in the proposed timeline of completion. Funding,however, should not be an issue given its current net gearing of 0.01x and annual operating cash flow of over MYR2bn-MYR2.5bn.

Potential hike in gaming taxes. There has been speculation that the Malaysian Government could soon re-visit a potential hike in gaming taxes to help boost the nation’s coffers. We estimate that every 1% hike in casino tax could potentially erode Genting Malaysia’s earnings by 2.5-3%. Risks. Key risks include fluctuations in luck factor, prolonged losses at Resorts World Bimini and a potential hike in casino taxes.

Maintain NEUTRAL. We make no major changes to our earnings forecasts. We fine-tune our TP to MYR4.46 (from MYR4.18) as we updated our SOP components to reflect its latest net cash balance as well as the market value of its 17.8% stake in Genting Hong Kong (678 HK, NR) . Given the limited upside, we maintain our NEUTRAL call.










DCF valuation. We assume an annual capex allocation of MYR2bn for FY16F-18F (from MYR850m-MYR1.5bn previously) before tapering off to MYR1.0bn-1.5bn pa in the foreseeable future as the group looks to fully roll out the revised Phase 1 of its GITP over the next two to three years. We peg a terminal growth rate of 1.5% (from 1.0%) as visitation interest could be rejuvenated in the long run upon the progressive opening of its new gaming and entertainment facilities under the GITP. We also re-jigged our WACC to 8.3% (from 8.7%), taking into account higher debt weightage to fund for its revised MYR10.4bn GITP. In deriving our TP of MYR4.46, we have also imputed its latest net cash position and effective stake of 17.8% in Genting Hong Kong (678 HK, NR).

何謂負利率？

利率向來是正的，例如利率為3%，就是說把錢借出去，能夠賺取3%的利息。現在有負利率這回事，乍聽起來是把錢借給人家，還要倒貼人家利息。其實事實並不是這麼一回事，負利率和我們老百姓沒有直接關係，和銀行則有直接的關係。

負利率此次之所以引人注目，是因為日本中央銀行實行了多年的零利率政策以來，仍舊無法提振經濟，於是突然再把利率調低至負0.1%，從2月19日開始實施，希望銀行會增加發放貸款數額，商家擴大投資，民間增加消費，經濟因而得以提振，脫離經濟長期低迷不振的狀況。

其實這些年來，已經有歐洲國家實行了負利率的貨幣政策。首先是歐洲國家（非歐盟國家）如瑞典在2009年和丹麥在2012年率先實行了負利率的貨幣政策，目的是阻止外國熱錢湧入，搞亂國內金融市場。然後2014年6月歐盟的歐洲中央銀行也宣佈，將最低利率下降至負0.3%，只是當時並沒有引起人們熱烈的關注。歐盟經濟因為債務問題被搞得焦頭爛額，實行負利率政策的目的和日本的一樣，是試圖提振經濟，擺脫經年的經濟困境。不同的是歐洲央行將隔夜存款利率調降至負值，而日本則是將超額準備金存款利率降至負值，不過，這兩種利率並沒有實質上的不同。

商業銀行向來都有存款在中央銀行，這些存款主要是中央銀行規定的最低存款準備金，不過商業銀行在中央銀行的存款往往超過中央銀行所規定的數額，因為如果利率是正的，商業銀行的這些超額存款能夠賺到一些利息。如今實行負利率，商業銀行除了在中央銀行存有規定的最低存款準備金外，如果還有餘額，則必須倒貼利息給中央銀行。

實行負利率政策，商業銀行在中央銀行就不會有超額的存款，換句話說，就是中央銀行不鼓勵商業銀行有超額存款，而是鼓勵商業銀行將這些超額的存款也放貸給企業和個人，讓他們去投資或消費，增加市場需求，以便達到提振經濟的目標。

另一方面，負利率不是指商業銀行如果向中央銀行借貸，中央銀行還要貼錢給他們，這是不必要的，但是卻未必是不可能發生的。政府經常提供津貼給民間的經濟活動，這和貸款給企業或個人，在利息上給於補貼的做法是一樣的。

由此可以看出，負利率是用在商業銀行在中央銀行的超額存款上，這樣就會倒逼商業銀行增加貸款給企業或個人。存戶把錢存在商業銀行，最低的利率為零，不可能為負，若為負利率，則沒有人會存款在銀行，因為還要倒貼利息給銀行，是任何人也不願意的。

最近網上流傳一段《施凌學會》關於負利率的三分鐘視頻，裡頭有一段是錯誤的。它提到實施負利率時，存戶存款在商業銀行不僅沒有得到利息，反而要被罰息，因此會把存款提出，這段論述是錯誤的，因為這是不可能發生的。銀行的營業依賴客戶的存款極大，沒有客戶的存款，銀行就不可能做借貸生意，銀行如果對客戶實行負利率，就吸收不到客戶的任何存款，那銀行就只能關門大吉了。其實，負利率只能實施在中央銀行和商業銀行之間，商業銀行是絕對不會對老百姓實行負利率的。

負利率以前不是沒有，只是不以負利率的名稱出現。忘了是哪一年在香港，金融市場處處謠傳，香港將放棄聯繫匯率制度，換句話說，港元不再掛鉤美元，市場估計港元脫鉤後將會升值，因此引來無限的美元流入香港，給港元帶來無限的混亂。因為香港是個國際金融中心，不能禁止美元熱錢的流入，香港金融管理局（即香港的中央銀行）於是宣佈，存在香港銀行的這些熱錢，不但不能享受任何利息，而且還要倒貼存款管理費。這其實是負利率的一種。
另外需要注意的是，負利率還有一種不同的意思，這個負利率指的是實質利率是負的，而我們上面談的是名譽利率是負的。名譽利率等於實質利率加上預期的通貨膨脹率，如果通貨膨脹率大於名譽利率，那實質利率便為負值。例如1973至1974年發生石油危機，原油一桶漲至45美元的高位，導致世界經濟陷入滯漲的困境，不但經濟低迷，且通貨膨脹率高企，當時名譽利率為3%，而通貨膨脹率則高達雙位數，因此實質利率便為負值，簡稱負利率時代。這種負利率後來也經常發生，尤其是發生嚴重通貨膨脹的時候。

（星洲日報／百思莫解‧作者：陳定遠‧南方大學學院企業與管理學院教授）

索羅斯黑歷史全复盤：曾做空各大主要貨幣 戰績4勝1負

原標題：索羅斯們是金融危機的黑武士

近日，諾亞控股香港有限公司研究總監、香港大學工商管理碩士課程教授夏春在英國《金融時報》撰寫專欄文章分析索羅斯五次大的“做空戰”（美元、日元、英鎊、東南亞、香港）。戰績4勝1負，除了在香港做空失敗，巨額虧損以外，其他幾次“做空戰”都成功了。以下為全文：

2014年開始進入升值通道，而泰銖、馬來西亞林吉特，印尼盾、韓元、俄羅斯盧布等新興市場貨幣連同日元、歐元貶值。在2015年全球經濟復甦乏力、貿易量和商品價格持續下降、美聯儲加息和人民幣貶值的背景下，2016年至今全球股市大跌。

近期，媒體在不斷炒作1997-1998年亞洲金融[0.00%]危機重現的話題，港幣與美元的聯繫匯率制 也在時隔多年後再一次遭受質疑。在這個敏感的時候，年近86歲的喬治·索羅斯高調發聲，表明做多美債，做空美股和亞洲貨幣。對他和其他賣空者的批評之聲此 起彼伏，在此背景下，本文標題似乎是多此一舉，索羅斯大發危機財的“黑武士”形像已經昭然若揭、板上釘釘。然而，我在《尋找金融危機的引爆點》一文中，挖 掘出幾次危機的觸發轉折點和引爆點，指出對沖基金在危機中起到主導性破壞作用的觀點沒有足夠說服力。

實際上，為資本市場空頭辯護是件吃力不討好的事情，之前的文章多數從理論出發講空頭的行為促進高估的資產價格回歸價值，有利於資源配置和提升市場效率。本文換一個角度，把對沖基金放到整個市場的大背景下看看它們在危機中的影響力。

第一次：做空美元

可能很少有人知道，索羅斯第一次做空的貨幣是美元。之前他主要的投資標的是股票和債券，依靠的是自創的“反射理論”。其核心是講資產的價值很難確定，反而會被交易價格“反”過來所影響（傳統理論認為價格由 價值決定）。如果價格被不合理抬高，就會誤導其他人認為價值提升，這樣就會產生“價格-價值”之間的“正反饋”螺旋作用，從而形成資產泡沫，但終究會破 滅。

1984年開始，索羅斯發現美 國在80年代的貿易赤字不斷擴大的同時，美元卻沒有依照傳統理論預測的那樣貶值，反而因為投機資金湧入而不斷升值。他認為美元終將貶值，於是開始等待。他 寫投資分析日記的好習慣幫他把下注時間定在1985年8月16日，他旗下的量子基金買入總值7.6億美元的日元、德國馬克和英鎊。三週後，美元繼續升值， 基金虧損2000萬美元。 9月22日，美英德法日達成“廣場協議”，核心是協調行動推動美元貶值以解決美國居高不下的貿易赤字問題。隨后索羅斯不斷加倉日 元和馬克並開始直接做空美元。四個月後，基金淨值上漲35%，盈利2.3億美元，而全年的淨回報則接近120%，創下量子基金的記錄（見圖1）。索羅斯把 功勞歸於日記，兩年後以《金融煉金術》的書名將其出版，此時美元已貶值了約40%。

量子基金和標普指數表現

第二次：做空日元和日股

索羅斯近年來為公眾熟悉的另外一筆成功交易是在日本實施量化寬鬆後，他的家族辦公室在2012年底到2013年初通過做空日元獲利10億美元，同時還做多日本股票，並且在隨後的時間持續這筆多空交易（加上其他的投資，2013年盈利55億美元）。但這次和80年代做空美元一樣，並沒有什麼批評索羅斯的聲音。也許大家認為這是政府主動推動的貨幣貶值，而他只不過是順勢而為罷了，如果對沖基金可以加速實現政府正確的目標，那倒可以稱得上“白武士”了。

第三次：做空英鎊

在史稱“黑色星期三”的1992年9月16日，英格蘭銀行在面對宏觀對沖基金和其他機構投資者賣空英鎊，而又缺乏足夠外匯儲備捍衛的情況下不得不貶值。這也使得索羅斯以“擊垮英格蘭銀行的人”成為歐美家喻戶曉的“英雄”或者“惡魔”。事 緣歐洲匯率體系規定各成員國有責任使本國貨幣匯率的波動穩定在一定範圍之內。兩德統一之後，德國為緩解通貨膨脹壓力而提升利率，給包括英國、意大利、西班 牙、葡萄牙等為刺激經濟增長而實行低利率的國家造成了很大壓力。英鎊和里拉對德國馬克貶值，逐漸逼近歐洲匯率體系規定的下限。

9月16日 上午，英國政府決定將利率由10%提升至15%，但無力緩解英鎊下跌之勢。當天晚上，英國決定退出歐洲匯率體系，意大利和西班牙緊隨其後讓本國貨幣自由浮 動。此前，索羅斯以“直撲勁動脈”​​向具體操盤的朱肯米勒下令，將做空英鎊和意大利里拉的頭寸由15億美元加槓桿升級至100億美元，最終獲利約10億美元（當時美國大銀行全年外匯交易利潤通常為3億美元）。接下來，愛爾蘭、西班牙和葡萄牙的貨幣相繼貶值。 1993年8月，歐洲匯率體係正式結束。

英鎊貶值

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在1993年組織了專家對事件進行調查，發現參與投資/投機到歐洲貨幣波動率收窄的單向資金流動高達3000億美元，一旦發現匯率體系維持不住就會反轉交易。國際清算銀行發現在1992年初危機還沒有開始的時候，英鎊的每日交易量就達到620億美元。

而1992年包括量子基金在內的9大宏觀對沖基金（以管理超過10億美元來定義“大”，大基金掌握的資金可以占到整個行業的80-90%）旗下的資金總規模為158億美元，做空英鎊的資金達到117億美元，相對於其他參與賣出英鎊交易的投資銀行、商業銀行、跨國公司的資金總量和每日交易量來說，宏觀對沖基金的空頭頭寸並不大（不過相對於英國400億美元的外匯儲備而言，對沖基金的頭寸則顯得頗大）。此外，採取趨勢策略的大對沖 基金在9月是虧損。加上一些更細緻的數據分析後，專家們總結認為，對沖基金沒有參與英鎊危機最初的反轉交易，即使沒有對沖基金，英鎊的貶值也無法避免。

第四次：做空東南亞貨幣

批評索羅斯的聲音在1992年出現，在1997年東亞金融危機爆發後達到頂峰。 1997年7月開始，泰銖、馬來西亞林吉特、菲律賓比索、印尼盾、韓元大幅度貶值，亞洲大部分國家股票市場暴跌，引發經濟衰退、企業破產、銀行倒閉、房地產貶值、失業率上升、社會動盪和政局不穩。

《商 業周刊》在當年8月報導幾家宏觀對沖基金在泰銖7月貶值23%時​​獲利巨大，例如量子基金一個月就賺了11.4%。朱肯米勒9月接受《華爾街日報》採訪，承 認做空泰銖和馬來西亞林吉特。一時間，索羅斯和他的同行們成為亞洲的“公敵”和媒體口誅筆伐的對象。馬來西亞總理馬哈蒂爾公開稱索羅斯們為“全球經濟的強盜”，他說“我們這些國家花了40多年建設經濟，但是索羅斯這群笨蛋卻把一切都摧毀了”，並建議將沒有貿易支撐的貨幣交易列為非法（這些話聽上去是否很耳熟？）。

索羅斯毫不示弱反駁到，“馬哈蒂爾對我的指控是錯誤的，他要找一隻替罪羊掩蓋他自己的經濟失誤……他自己才是對馬來西亞經濟最大 的威脅”。特別地，索羅斯提到，他直到危機開始前兩個月才賣出林吉特，而之前一直在買入。非常有意思的是，2006年馬哈蒂爾和索羅斯見面，這一次他說不 再認為索羅斯應該為亞洲金融危機負責。

量子基金與美股相關性頗高

為 何會有這樣的轉變？圖3顯示量子基金與標普500指數的相關性高達0.64，而與泰銖匯率的的相關性只有0.16。換言之，量子基金7月份11.4%的回 報很大程度來自美股交易，當月標普指數上漲了8%。索羅斯1998年出版的《全球資本主義危機》書裡指出，量子基金在1997年初賣出泰銖和林吉特的遠期合同，在7月爆發後並沒有再做空而是轉為買入，因為擔心馬哈蒂爾會實施資本管制（實際一年後才實施）。

研究進一步發現，上述相關性差異在當時28家大的對沖基金里普遍存在，只有4家回報與泰銖匯率相關性更高，同樣與林吉特、印尼盾和韓元匯率相關性高的基金更少甚至不存在。圖3還顯示量子基 金在1997年10月淨值大幅減少主要源於10月27日美股大跌，起因是有謠言稱香港將放棄與美元的聯繫匯率制。當時道指下跌7.2%觸發兩級熔斷暫停交 易，而沒有熔斷機制的香港則在27和28日分別下跌了6%和14%。而索羅斯的合夥人維克多·尼德爾霍夫之前一直壓注美股不可能單日大幅度下跌而遭受巨額 損失。

對沖基金頭寸
圖 4顯示在泰銖貶值23%的7月，12家大對沖基金的泰銖頭寸淨值為正。在接下來的時間裡這些基金做空亞洲貨幣的頭寸並不高。 11-12月做多印尼盾的資金很大一部分來自量子基金，因為索羅斯認為印尼盾已過度貶值而買入，沒想到IMF的救助方案遇到印尼政府的阻擾，印尼盾在12月大跌44%。索羅斯損失8億 美元，超過了他此前做空泰銖和林吉特而獲利的7億美元。此外，韓元貶值從11月才開始，但當時對沖基金並沒有明顯的頭寸。

韓國學者研究發現，外國投資者並未在韓元貶值期間起到破壞性作用，相反韓國的散戶反而應該負主要責任。索羅斯沒有參與做空韓元，他在1998年1月訪問韓國受到金大中總統的熱情歡迎，在批評了IMF的救助方案後，索羅斯提供了他的解決辦法，並表示如果可以做到，量子基金願意投資韓國，這也會吸引其他國外資本。接下來十天裡，韓國股市上漲了25%。

即 使在6月的空頭頭寸達到50多億美元，從兩個方面也可以看出規模並不算大。首先，這12家基金在1997年底的資產總規模大約為340億美元，即使把6月 開始的空頭頭寸累積起來也遠遠低於資產總規模。其次，更重要的是，圖5清楚地顯示出資金在危機發生前受到“東亞經濟奇蹟”吸引持續流入，但在1997年從 五個受災嚴重的國家大量流出。與投資銀行、商業銀行、跨國公司、傳統型基金等機構的資金流動量來比，對沖基金幾乎可以忽略不計。

我在《尋找金融危機的引爆點》一文裡已經說明，東亞經濟的轉折點來自90年代中期人民幣和 日元的貶值造成東亞國家出口下降，以及美國利率的上升帶動美元走強。當一些國家經常賬戶出現逆差，韓國多家大型銀行倒閉，流入東亞經濟並投資/投機於房地 產和基礎設施建設的熱錢開始流出並引發債務危機。東亞國家貨幣大多實施的和美元掛鉤的固定匯率制，開始承受壓力。泰銖率先在1997年5月開始被拋售，引 爆點是日本商業銀行從泰國撤回貸款。原來，受困於本國房地產泡沫破滅的日本商業銀行，先是向泰國等亞洲國家放貸（利差交易），但後來為了提前應對國際清算銀行將於1998年實施的資本充足率規定而從泰國撤資（泰國從境外流入的資本有一半來自於日本），這又直接促使其他的投資機構效仿。對沖基金並非危機中“振臂一呼，應者云集”的領頭羊，而是跟在這些大機構後面，其發展過 程和1992年歐洲匯率危機幾乎一樣。即使說對沖基金是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草，那麼這根稻草所需要負擔的責任並不比其他稻草更多。

圖6

以 上提到的觀點和數據主要來自兩位傑出華裔學者William Fung和David Hsieh的研究。在他們之前，IMF的研究員和耶魯大學的教授都給出了相似的結論。圖6顯示前十大的貨幣基金在亞洲一籃子貨幣上的頭寸在1997年和前 幾年相比並無異常，而且與匯率變化相關性很低。 Fung和Hsieh還研究了1987年10月美國股災，1993-1994年全球​​債市波動，1994年墨 西哥比索危機，同樣沒有找到對沖基金起了顯著破壞性的證據。至於2000年互聯網科技網泡沫，量子基金因虧損而改組，和索羅斯多年並肩作戰的老虎基金創始 人朱利安·羅伯特森因虧損和撤資關閉基金。

不過這些學術研究畢竟傳播範圍極小，認為做空者是黑武士的觀點仍然廣泛存在。吉姆·查諾斯，綽 號“華爾街最大的熊”，以賣空虛高估值的股票聞名。他在2000年底研究了能源公司安然後，開始在其股票90美元的高位做空，並一直呼籲其他投資者跟進。此前，安然連續六年被評為美國最具創新的企業，查諾斯的行為被認為是“反美”，人們從聖經裡面尋找暗示賣空行為不當的語句來譴責他。查諾斯不為所動繼續加 倉賣空，等到2001年底安然偽造會計賬目的醜聞曝光，股票跌至6美分宣布破產時，大家才發現到查諾斯其實是股市的白武士。

同樣，在 2007-2009年金融危機爆發後，做空與房地產掛鉤的抵押債券以及其衍生品而獲利巨大的幾家對沖基金（包括索羅斯基金）並沒有被媒體所指責為罪魁禍 首。事件過去不久，相信大家還能記得危機的開始和蔓延。最近上映的電影《大空頭》（港譯《沽註一擲》）雖然把主角放在做空盈利的幾個對沖基金經理身上，但 我相信影片結束時認為他們應該為危機負責的觀眾極少。幾年下來，研究人員和政府官員列舉出一系列導致大危機的責任者和政策錯誤，但對沖基 金並不在其中。美國眾議院監管和政府改革委員會在2008年11月13日專門召開了對沖基金在金融危機中影響的聽證會。會議召集了五位基金經理：索羅斯、 吉姆·西蒙斯、約翰·保爾森、菲利普·法爾科尼、肯尼斯·格里芬。他們在危機中有盈有虧，一致的看法是政府監管部門和傳統金融機構都需要為危機負責，比如 西蒙斯認為債券評級機構把豬耳朵當絲質皮包來賣是危機最大的責任人。他們還一致同意應該適度加強對金融機構的監管，增強對沖基金行業的透明度。

有 意思的是，聽證會上索羅斯對對沖基金業發出了批評和警告，他認為對沖基金采用的槓桿過高，接下來幾年資產管理規模會下降75%。但這兩點都不盡準確，對沖 基金業里個別策略(固定收益套利)的槓桿高達10-30倍，但行業平均的槓桿只有2-3倍。而傳統的商業銀行、投資銀行和金融業的平均槓桿通常為 10-40倍（見圖7）。至於第二點預測更過於悲觀，對沖基金業管理的資產規模已經從2008年的1.4萬億美元持續增長到目前接近3萬億美元。

這 次聽證會之前，委員會已經收到幾位教授的專家報告。雖然有觀點認為對沖基金業的擴張增加了系統性風險，但從規模來看，他們的危害性遠遠比不上傳統金融機 構。特別是，對沖基金並非危機之源，沒有推動房地產抵押債券和衍生品市場的膨脹，沒有給問題債券給出高評級，沒有像傳統銀行和影子銀行那樣借短貸長，截止到2008年9月全球金融機構資產減計7600億美元中，只有7.8%來自對沖基金和非銀行機構。最重要的是，對沖基金虧損後從來不向政府要求拿納稅人的 金錢去補償。

第五次：做空香港貨幣和股市，但失敗了！

敏銳的讀者也許發現，前面沒有提1998年對沖基金做空香港貨幣和股票市場。的確，由於對沖基金最終鎩羽而歸，學者對這段歷史的研究似乎不夠深入。我也不掌握當時不同類型投資者投入做空的資金規模。但有一點需要提醒，許多媒體在歡呼香港和中國政府在捍衛聯繫匯率制出奇謀而凱旋時，卻忽視掉一個事實——東亞金融危機爆發導致石油下跌對於俄羅斯經濟造成重大打擊。 1998年8月17日，處於危機中的俄羅斯突然宣布盧布貶值、推遲償還外債及暫停國債交易，引髮美國和歐洲股匯市的全面劇烈波動，導致對沖基金巨額虧損是他們無法在香港繼續做空的​​重要原因。

之前，量子基金和老虎基金都因為看好俄羅斯總統葉利欽的經濟改革和民主化進程而買入俄羅斯一些流動性很差的企業資產和看似回報非常高​​的債券，卻在危機中分別損失20億和6億美元。索羅斯在明知盧布會貶值卻沒有做空，他說“我對於自己幫助俄羅斯走向開放社會的努力並不後悔。儘管沒有成功，但至少我努力了”。

雖 然研究不足，我們還是可以從側面看出政府管理者對對沖基金看法的轉變。 1998年，時任財政司司長曾蔭權認為對沖基金的交易應該被限制。 1999年，新加 坡金管局的高管張瑞蓮表示，銀行自營交易部門對市場的破壞力超過對沖基金，為什麼這些銀行卻備受尊重？ 2001年，新的財政司司長梁錦松表示希望香港成為 亞洲對沖基金的中心。 2011年，索羅斯訪問香港大學獲得隆重接待。

2016年以來，做空人民幣遇阻的基金把重心轉向香港的匯市和股市。目前來看，與媒體的各種炒作相比，香港金管局的應對方式更加成熟冷靜。由於對沖基金受到的監管較少，信息披露不足，要想全面地評論和判斷並非易事，對沖基金研究在金融學術界自2005年才逐步獲得重視。

本 文目的並非為對沖基金做辯護，而是就我所知糾正一些媒體和輿論常見說法的不當之處。如果說索羅斯們是金融危機的黑武士，那麼其他機構起的破壞性作用也不應 該被忽視。對此有不同的看法也很正常，比如在1994年寫下“東亞奇蹟的迷思”而被廣泛認為預言了東亞金融危機的保羅·克魯格曼就認為，索羅斯們應該為危 機負責。我推薦有興趣的讀者閱讀詳細介紹宏觀對沖基金的書《富可敵國》（More Money Than God）或者索羅斯本人的著作。索羅斯多次表示過他寧願做一個哲學家而不是金融家，更願意做一個扭曲經濟政策的提醒者，而不是利用政策的錯誤去賺錢。

不 過，世人更相信他是一個關心文化和政治價值的強盜資本家，而非一個宣言開放社會價值的智者。的確，這個世界上只有兩種主要方式賺大錢，一是靠發明和創造新 產品，改進和提升現有生產、流通和消費體系的效率，二是去利用他人，特別是政府的錯誤而牟利。但有一點是共同的，就是這兩種方式在幫助一些人的同時，也會 對另外一些人的工作和生活造成短期巨大的衝擊或破壞。但是，以長遠的視角去看，人類經濟的發展和社會的進步離不開這個被經濟學大師約瑟夫·熊彼特稱為“創 造性毀滅”的過程。

（作者係諾亞控股香港有限公司研究總監，香港大學工商管理碩士課程教授。）

Air Asia India Set To Expand Its Fleet Size

Air Asia, the much talked about low cost airlines is all set to expand its fleet size to about eight and further later on to about 16 to 20 planes. This move comes days after a widespread criticsm was aimed at the ruling authorities which made it mandatory for the new airlines to follow the 5/20 rule.

The rule states that any new airline must have a 5 year of service period in serving the domestic circuit as well as a minimum fleet of 20 aircrafts to be able to operate on international routes in India. The rule will hit the likes of Air Asia the heaviest as their entire USP is based on promising dirt cheap international travel. Not just Air Asia, but the newly operational Vistara is also suffering because of the same rule.
The news of the fleet expansion was disclosed by the AirAsia Chief Tony Fernandes, who also confirmed further capital infusion in the airlines. He went on to appreciate the raw potential of India as a market for airlines by stating, "Let the market decide and where routes are needed to be subsidised, subsidise them. India is a huge country with a huge market and it has a massive potential".

Mr Fernandes though, was less than impressed with the fuel taxes and the airport costs in India hinting that they could prove to be a major block for new entrants. He said, "Your airports are very costly and your fuel taxes are one of the highest. Please make business easier to do".

http://www.gizmodo.in/indiamodo/Air-Asia-Set-To-Expand-Its-Fleet-Size/articleshow/51023991.cms

Cheap oil paves way to revive expansion: AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes

SAN FRANCISCO: With low oil prices reducing its operating costs, AirAsia Chief Executive Tony Fernandes said the budget carrier was ready to start expanding again in southeast Asia and was eyeing Vietnam and the Philippines.

Fernandes, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a US-ASEAN trade conference here on Wednesday, said the pace of expansion would depend on securing approvals for new routes and airport access.

"We're going to start expanding again in different parts of ASEAN," Fernandes said.

While some benefits of the collapse of oil prices have been swallowed up by a decline in currencies in its major markets, Fernandes said he viewed the lower fuel costs as "an opportunity to expand, to regrow, to put capital investment in."

In November, AirAsia reported a consolidated third-quarter net loss of 406 million ringgit ($96 million), versus a year earlier net profit of 5.4 million ringgit. It blamed foreign exchange losses and a writedown at its Indonesian affiliate.

The company also had said its major shareholders were evaluating "all strategic options" after Reuters reported that Fernandes was sounding out investors to take the company private in the wake of a steep fall in its shares.

Fernandes said the two Southeast Asia markets that excited him most for expansion were the Philippines and Vietnam, calling the latter "the last piece of our jigsaw puzzle."

But securing route approvals was a problem, and lack of available take-off and landing capacity at Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport needed to be resolved, he said.

Clark International Airport could be a good alternative solution, Fernandes said, but this would require the government to invest in a new high speed train into Manila.

Fernandes also said he hoped to win approval for flights to Hawaii this year, but could not predict when that might occur.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/cheap-oil-paves-way-to-revive-expansion-airasia-ceo-tony-fernandes/articleshow/51040070.cms

AIRASIA BERHAD - 4QFY15 Operating Statistics

12-Month Target Price RM1.88

AirAsia released its 4QFY15 operating statistics which saw a 14.6% YoY growth in traffic volume to 15.98bn revenue-passenger-kilometres (RPKs) while load factor increased to 83.2% (+4.7pts YoY). For its Malaysian operations, the number of passengers carried increased by 9.6% YoY to 6.47m in 4QFY15, while load factor increased to 84.8% (+6.5pts YoY). AirAsia’s 4QFY15 results are expected to be released on 26th February 2016. We maintain our Outperform call on AirAsia with target price of RM1.88.

• 4QFY15 performance. The group carried 13.5m passengers (+12.1% YoY) with seat capacity of 16.3m (+5.7% YoY). Available-seat-kilometres (ASK) increased to 19.3bn (+9.3% YoY) and revenue-passenger-kilometres (RPK) increased to 16.0bn (+14.6% YoY) in 4QFY15 due to increase in frequencies and routes. AirAsia’s 4QFY15 results and passenger yield data will only be released next week. 
• Malaysia (MAA) recorded +6.5pts YoY growth in load factor to 84.8% on the back of 6.5m passengers carried (+9.6% YoY), despite a flat growth of 1.2% YoY in seat capacity. Thailand (TAA) remained strong with load factor at 82.4% on the back of passenger volume and capacity growing YoY by 17.2% and 12.5% respectively. Indonesia (IAA) performance was flat YoY with load factor remain at 80%, but slightly improved on QoQ (+4.6pts) despite a capacity reduction of 14.4% YoY and number of passengers declining by 13.9% YoY following its turnaround strategy plan. Philippines’ (PAA) saw a strong YoY growth in passenger and capacity volume of 46.7% and 30.1% respectively. 
• Pending more detail yield data and results for 4QFY15 and full year 2015 next week, we maintain our Outperform call with unchanged TP of RM1.88, pegging a 10x multiple to the FY16F earnings (20%-discount). At current share price, AirAsia is trading at 6.2x FY16F earnings, which is below its 4-year average PER.

 

Source: PublicInvest Research - 16 Feb 2016

AirAsia group carried 11% more passengers in 2015

AirAsia's Malaysian operations posted a 10% increase in the number of passengers carried last year to 24.25 million. The EPA photo shows a police motorcyclist moving past an AirAsia billboard in Kuala Lumpur.

 

 

KUALA LUMPUR: The AirAsia group carried 50.68 million passengers in the 2015 financial year (FY15), up 11% from 45.58 million passengers in the preceding year.

In its preliminary operating statistics released on Monday, the low-cost airline said its capacity rose 9% to 63.34 million versus 58.16 million previously.

“The load factor rose by two percentage points year-on-year (yoy) to 805,” the company said.

It said Malaysia AirAsia (MAA) posted a 10% increase in the number of passengers carried last year to 24.25 million, gained 7% in capacity to 30.08 million and added two percentage points in load factor.

 

As for its units in other countries, AirAsia India saw the number of passengers it carried soared by 324% to 1.46 million in 2015 versus 345,298 in 2014 while capacity increased by 322% to 1.82 million from 430,560 and load factor gained one percentage point yoy to 81%.

However, Indonesia AirAsia recorded a decrease of 17% in the number of passengers carried to 6.52 million last year compared with 7.85 million previously, while capacity was down 13% to 8.76 million from 10.04 million and load factor eased 4% to 74 percentage points yoy.

For the fourth quarter (Q4) ended Dec 31, 2015 (4Q15), the AirAsia group’s load factor increased by 5 percentage points to 83% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

It said the number of passengers carried in Q4 rose by 12% yoy to 13.5 million, ahead of the 6% increase in capacity.

“At the end of 2015, the group has a fleet size of 170 aircraft (171 including one aircraft that was delivered to AirAsia Japan in 4Q15, which has not commenced operation),” it said.

It said MAA posted a load factor of 85% in 4Q15, up seven percentage points yoy.

AirAsia said demand exceeded capacity with 10% increase in the number of passengers carried at 6.5 million and 1% yoy increase in capacity.

“MAA ended the quarter with a total fleet of 80 aircraft. Three new routes commenced operations during the quarter: Kuala Lumpur-Male, Changsha and Colombo. Frequencies were added on three routes: Kuala Lumpur-Kochi and Jakarta; and Johor Baru-Ho Chi Minh City,” it said.

Meanwhile, Thai AirAsia recorded a load factor of 82% in 4Q15, up three percentage points yoy, while Indonesia AirAsia maintained its load factor at 80%, it said.

As for the Philippines’ AirAsia, it said, its load factor was up by nine percentage points to 81% and AirAsia India recorded a load factor of 84%, one percentage point better compared with the same period last year. - Bernama

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/02/15/airasia-group-carried-11pc-more-passengers-in-2015/

Mittu Chandilya not quitting AirAsia India: Tony Fernandes

MUMBAI: AirAsia India CEO Mittu Chandilya is not quitting the airline, AirAsia Group chief Tony Fernandes said today as he announced that the 2-year old Indian carrier would "shortly" add two aircraft as part of its fleet expansion plans.

"I read about Mittu calling it quits from you guys. I absolutely deny it. There is no substance to the rumours," the Malaysian airline group chief told reporters at the Make in India week here.

Unconfirmed reports had a few days ago said that Chandilya has put in his papers.

To questions on the loss-making airline's much-delayed fleet expansion plan, Fernandes said two more planes would be inducted "shortly and a dozen later" but did not put a time line to these deliveries.

AirAsia India, which currently has six Airbus A320-200 planes, is a joint venture in which Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd holds 49 per cent, Tata Sons Ltd 41 per cent and Arun Bhatia of Telestra Tradeplace Pvt Ltd the rest.

On the issue of 5/20 rule to enable an Indian carrier fly abroad, Fernandes said "all I am looking for is the ease of doing business. I hope basically your aviation sector is made easy". The rule allows only those Indian airlines which have a 20 aircraft fleet and have operated on the domestic sector for five years to fly abroad.

Besides 5/20 rule, he said "your airports are very costly and your fuel taxes are one of the highest. Please make businees easier to do."

He replied in the affirmative to questions on further capital infusion in AirAsia India but did not elaborate.

AirAsia India and Tata-Singapore Airlines venture Vistara are the prime opponents of the 5/20 rule, which is being supported by almost all major Indian carriers.

Regarding reported disagreements between the partners of AirAsia India, Fernandes said the Tatas were "a fantastic partner" but parried questions on some objections allegedly raised by the third partner, businessman Arun Bhatia, in a board room battle which had reportedly erupted recently.

On whether the Group had "underestimated" the Indian aviation market, Fernandes said "never. But we are taking time to understand it better. ... And aviation is a long-term business and we are here to for the long-term as well."

 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/mittu-chandilya-not-quitting-airasia-india-tony-fernandes/articleshow/50984428.cms

An excellent article on the Future of world economy. A view from Stanford University....

Governments, businesses, and economists have all been caught off guard by the geopolitical shifts that happened with the crash of oil prices and the slowdown of China’s economy. Most believe that the price of oil will recover and that China will continue its rise. They are mistaken. Instead of worrying about the rise of China, we need to fear its fall; and while oil prices may oscillate over the next four or five years, the fossil-fuel industry is headed the way of the dinosaur. The global balance of power will shift as a result.

LED light bulbs, improved heating and cooling systems, and software systems in automobiles have gradually been increasing fuel efficiency over the past decades. But the big shock to the energy industry came with fracking, a new set of techniques and technologies for extracting more hydrocarbons from the ground. Though there are concerns about environmental damage, these increased the outputs of oil and gas, caused the usurpation of old-line coal-fired power plants, and dramatically reduced America’s dependence on foreign oil.

The next shock will come from clean energy. Solar and wind are now advancing on exponential curves. Every two years, for example, solar installation rates are doubling, and photovoltaic-module costs are falling by about 20 percent. Even without the subsidies that governments are phasing out, present costs of solar installations will, by 2022, halve, reducing returns on investments in homes, nationwide, to less than four years. By 2030, solar power will be able to provide 100 percent of today’s energy needs; by 2035, it will seem almost free — just as cell-phone calls are today.

This seems hard to believe, given that solar production provides less than one percent of the Earth’s energy needs today. But this is how exponential technologies advance. They double in performance every year or two and their prices fall. Given that California already generates more than 5 percent of its electricity from utility-scale solar, it is not hard to fathom what the impact of another few doublings would be: the imminent extinction of the fossil-fuel industry. Exponential technologies are deceptive because they move very slowly at first, but one percent becomes two percent, which becomes four, eight, and sixteen; you get the idea. As futurist Ray Kurzweil says, when an exponential technology is at one percent, you are halfway to 100 percent, and that is where solar and wind energies are now.

Anyone tracking the exponential growth of fracking and the gradual advances that were being made in conservation and fuel efficiency should have been able to predict, years ago, that by 2015, the price of oil would drop dramatically. It wasn’t surprising that relatively small changes in supply and demand caused massive disruptions to global oil prices; that is how markets work. They cause commodities futures and stock prices to fall dramatically when slowdowns occur. This is what is happening to China’s markets also. The growth of China’s largest industry, manufacturing, has stalled, causing ripple effects throughout China’s economy.

For decades, manufacturing was flooding into China from the U.S. and Europe and fueling its growth. And then a combination of rising labor and shipping costs and automation began to change the economics of China manufacturing. Now, robots are about to tip the balance further.

Foxconn had announced in August 2011 that it would replace one million workers with robots. This didn’t occur, because the robots then couldn’t work alongside human workers to do sophisticated circuit board assembly. But a newer generation of robots such as ABB’s Yumi and Rethink Robotics’ Sawyer can do that. They are dextrous enough to thread a needle and cost as much as a car does.

China is aware of the advances in robotics and plans to take the lead in replacing humans with robots. Guangdong province is constructing the world’s first “zero-labor factor,” with 1,000 robots which do the jobs of 2,000 human

s. It sees this as a solution to increasing labor costs.

The problem for China is that its robots are no more productive than their counterparts in the West are. They all work 24×7 without complaining or joining labor unions. They cost the same and consume the same amount of energy. Given the long shipping times and high transportation costs it no longer makes sense to send raw materials across the oceans to China to have them assembled into finished goods and shipped to the West. Manufacturing can once again become a local industry.

It will take many years for Western companies to learn the intricacies of robotic manufacturing, build automated factories, train workers, and deal with the logistical challenges of supply chains being in China. But these are surmountable problems. What is now a trickle of manufacturing returning to the West will, within five to seven years, become a flood.

After this, another technology revolution will begin: digital manufacturing.

In conventional manufacturing, parts are produced by humans using power-driven machine tools, such as saws, lathes, milling machines, and drill presses, to physically remove material to obtain the shape desired. In digital manufacturing, parts are produced by melting successive layers of materials based on 3D models — adding materials rather than subtracting them. The “3D printers” that produce these use powdered metal, droplets of plastic, and other materials — much like the toner cartridges that go into laser printers. 3D printers can already create physical mechanical devices, medical implants, jewellery, and even clothing. But these are slow, messy, and cumbersome — much like the first generations of inkjet printers were. This will change.

In the early 2020s we will have elegant low-priced printers for our homes that can print toys and household goods. Businesses will use 3D printers to do small-scale production of previously labor-intensive crafts and goods. Late in the next decade, we will be 3D-printing buildings and electronics. These will eventually be as fast as today’s laser printers are. And don’t be surprised if by 2030, the industrial robots go on strike, waving placards saying “stop the 3D printers: they are taking our jobs away.”

The geopolitical implications of these changes are exciting and worrisome. America will reinvent itself just as does every 30-40 years; it is, after all, leading the technology boom. And as we are already witnessing, Russia and China will stir up regional unrest to distract their restive populations; oil producers such as Venezuela will go bankrupt; the Middle East will become a cauldron of instability. Countries that have invested in educating their populations, built strong consumer economies, and have democratic institutions that can deal with social change will benefit — because their people will have had their basic needs met and can figure out how to take advantage of the advances in technology.

达里奥（Ray Dalio）说：不，你必须指出我的缺点！

近来十分红火的辩论节目《奇葩说》有一期辩题是，如果你认为你的老板做错了，要不要告诉他？立足于中国的企业环境，辩论结果是反方获胜，大多数观点是：小员工还是不要自掘坟墓。但桥水基金创始人雷•达里奥（Ray Dalio）说：不，你必须指出我的缺点！

这个亿万富翁的“开明”之举，在多大程度上令桥水基金成为史上最成功的对冲基金？沃顿商学院管理与心理学教授Adam Grant在其新书《原创力：独行者如何推动世界》（Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World）中，对达里奥与其桥水基金分享了如下见解。

桥水基金是市场公认的“最能赚钱的对冲基金”。Dalio曾在2007年准确预言了金融危机，但当时，美国财政部和白宫都未曾给予达里奥论断足够的重视。2010年，桥水基金的利润超越了谷歌、eBay、雅虎，以及亚马逊利润之和。

行为金融理论发展至今最为成熟的一条投资策略是“反向投资策略”，即，当你与别人的投资角度都不一样，才能够赚钱。桥水基金将这一策略发挥到极致：这家公司通过鼓励每一个雇员发表其反对意见（dissenting opinions）来避免趋同思维。

这令桥水基金在其余投资者出错的时候，更有机会做出正确的决策。伯克利心理学家Charlan Nemeth的研究结果显示，少数派意见对改善决策有正向作用，即使这些观点本身是错的。

被称为投资界乔布斯的Ray Dalio认为，“任何人都有权利表达批评意见。”

作为老板，达里奥可不是说说场面话而已。

桥水基金的一个客户经理曾在一个会议后发电邮给Dalio称：雷，你今天的表现我只能给D-的分数。你几乎闲扯了50分钟，但凡你稍微准备过，都不会是这样的情况。今天你的表现太糟糕了，下不为例。

令人吃惊的是，Dalio没有恼羞成怒，也没有开除这个客户经理。他向所有参会人士发了邮件，让他们给自己的会议表现从A到F打分。桥水基金的联合CEO把这位客户经理的批评邮件转发给公司所有员工，让每个人从交流中吸取此次教训。

Dalio一直努力形成一种公司机制，令他可以听到所有人的观点，并从中选择最好的一个。

为了践行Dalio的理念，桥水基金大部分管理者为自己的团队指定了一个“魔鬼代言人”：希望有一个人能够对多数派观点提出异见。

但从Nemeth的研究以及桥水基金的实践来看，这个做法行不通。当一个雇员被指定“魔鬼代言人”的角色后，他往往只是在扮演这个角色。这导致了两个负面结果：他们的反对意见根本没有说服力；他们的意见越来越不受重视。

Nemeth称，为反对去反对就丧失了反对的意义。

反对意见是为了寻求事实真相，为了找到最好的解决办法。当你真心提出反对意见，真理可以越辩越明，异见者也会更有自信。

Nemeth的实验结果显示，如果团体中有一个真正的反对者，比指定一个反对者要多提供48%的解决方式，并且，他们的意见更有质量。

但Nemeth同时表示，尽管这一指定角色的作用没有一个直接的反对者来得药效强。但指定角色确实会给该雇员镀上一层保护色，以减少团体内的敌意和意见反弹。

但对Dalio来说，他显然不需要“魔鬼代言人”这层窗户纸。对于“指定”，他更致力于发掘他们。

每次桥水基金需要做一个重要决定，Dalio都会采取调查问卷的方式来听取每个人的意见，从中选择有极端观点的人来辩论，并要求所有雇员来听取反对意见。

“人类最大的弱点就是不能全面思考来挖掘真相。”

但这并不意味着哗众取宠的人更有表演空间。换句话说，Dalio欢迎所有人的观点，但不意味着他会给所有人的观点同等的重视。

“一人一票的民主决策是相当愚蠢的，因为不是每个人都有相同的可信度。”

桥水基金的每个雇员都对应一个可信度分数，这个分数根据雇员过去的判断、推论和行为来决定。

即使以上桥水基金的所有管理经验我们都难以借鉴，但对任何公司来说，该高度重视“自我意识”这一点是最有价值的一课：当雇员在表达观点时，是在期望建立更高的可信度，也在树立一种自信。

了解更多：点击查看桥水基金员工手册/《全球最大对冲基金创始人：这五个习惯让我成功》/《雷•达里奥（Ray Dalio）——对冲基金教父的人生“禅”（上）》

Gaming - Looking To A Better 2016

We still like gaming stocks for their attractive valuations, being the market laggards in the past 2-3 years. GENTING looks fairly attractive for its deep valuation, which trades at 41% discount to its SoP valuation while BJTOTO is at multiple-year’s low of 11x earnings multiples with one of the best yields at 7%-8%. We expect a better year in 2016 for the players in anticipation of recovery in business volume and luck factors. In all, we continue to prefer NFO players over casino operators given the formers’ supernormal dividend yields of 6%-8% while for the latter, GENTING especially is affected by the lacklustre performance from GENS. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector while BJTOTO remains our TOP PICK.
Still OVERWEIGHT on valuations. Except Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM, UP; TP: RM4.26), all gaming stocks saw another lacklustre year in 2015 with share prices contracting 7%-19% over the year after the 11%-14% decline in 2014. This was mainly attributable to the GST as well as their non-shariah status while foreign funds also have little interest in the sector. However, this sector offers deep value like Genting Bhd (GENTING, OP; TP: RM8.52) and attractive yields such as Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BJTOTO, OP; TP: RM3.56) and Magnum Bhd (MAGNUM, OP; TP: RM2.93). GENTING is now trading at c.41% discount to SoP valuation, which could be a sign of bottoming out given its 10-year average discount of 30%. On the other hand, NFO players, such as BJTOTO are trading at their multi-year’s lows even after we trimmed their earnings estimates recently. BJTOTO continues to be our TOP PICK for the sector for its dividend yield and defensive earnings. OVERWEIGHT for the sector maintained.
NFO: it is always about valuation and yield. We trimmed BJTOTO and MAGNUM earnings recently as we were too bullish on ticket sales even after adjusting for the 6% GST. As such, we see little earnings risk for now unless there is a big swing in luck factor to the downside. Post earnings revision, valuations for both stocks remain undemanding at 11x-14x earnings multiples. This is especially so for BJTOTO as it is trading at its multiple-year’s lows. Given that the gaming sector is highly regulated and matured, earnings prospect remains unexciting and we expect ticket sales to grow at 2%-3% annually with their usual 20 extra special draws each year while the luck factor is the determining factor for bottom line. However, one should also look into the attractive yields that are as high as 6%-8% which is among the highest on Bursa Malaysia.
Casino: GENM is the focus in 2016. With Phase 1 of Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP) in its final leg of completion in 2H 2016, GENM is likely be the focus as the 10-year RM5b revamping program is a major catalyst to Resorts World Genting. The prime attraction will be the first full-scale 20th Century Theme Park, which will be ready by end-2016/early-2017, and will definitely change the image of RWG as the new face of holiday theme park destination in the region with its cool climate as part of the selling point. Although we are not certain if RWG is allowed to expand its casino floor, all the new addons should help to bring in more footfalls, which could help to boost casino traffic. Meanwhile, there is no development from Japan regarding the liberalisation of the gaming industry there while the construction of Resorts World Jeju is on track to open progressively from 2017 and to complete by 2019. In Singapore, Resorts World Sentosa lost its market leader status to its sole rival Marina Bay Sand for the third consecutive quarters with the market share for VIP rolling chip volume falling further to 40% in 3Q15 from 47% in 2Q15. This was mainly attributable to the sharp decline in Chinese VIP arrivals. As such, Genting Singapore plc (GENS, Not Rated) has switched its focus to the mass market since three quarters ago.
Looking to a better 2016. Generally, gaming companies had a bad year in 2015 given the slowdown in business volume coupled with the absorption of GST. In addition, the luck factor was also not in their favour. As such, we expect a better 2016 for the players with expectations of recovery of business volume and the normalisation of luck factor. Earnings of BJTOTO, GENTING and GENM were badly hit in 2015, with the abovementioned expectations, we could see a moderate improvement in 2016 which we estimate 10%/10%/17% earnings growth for them, respectively. On the other hand, MAGNUM will be the only gaming stock to post flattish earnings growth of <1% in 2016 as it is the only company with earnings growth of <2% in 2015. Operationally, GENM could continue to enjoy stable earnings on the resilient RWG’s earnings while the North American operations, especially RWNYC should be able to drive the US-based earnings higher while RWB’s new 300-room luxury hotel is expected to reduce its operating loss and break even in 2H15. However, the UK operations could continue to see tougher times due to its VIP-centric nature. Meanwhile, GENS’ prospects remain challenging given the decline of visitor arrivals from the high-roller segment from China.
Source: Kenanga Research - 6 Jan 2016

AirAsia - Increase Stakes in Think Big

Highlights/ Comments

• AirAsia is increasing its stake in associate Think Big (BIG) from 46.1% to 71.9% (becoming a subsidiary), by acquiring 25.8% stake from shareholder Tune Money for cash consideration of RM101.5m. The agreed price is based on previous BIG valuation of US$109m, when AIMIA invested US$17.1m for a minority stake in BIG back in Jan 2014.
• 

• Based on AirAsia latest 9M15 result, AirAsia has a cumulative unrecognized losses amounting to RM31.4m for its 47.8% stake (later diluted to 46.1% by end 2015 after AIMIA increased its stakes). With the acquisition, AirAsia would need to consolidate BIG’s account and recognize the cumulative losses in 1Q16. Given BIG’s track record of losses (since startup in 4Q11), we do not expect BIG’s turnaround within the next 2-3 years, which may drag AirAsia’s earnings performance. BIG reported losses of RM18.2m for 9M15 and RM10.6m in FY14.

• We understand that BIG currently has a membership base of 15.6m across Asia Pacific (vs. 10m back in Jul 2014). BIG aimed for 20m memberships by 2017, leveraging on the regional connectivity of AirAsia group and their partners.

• We are relatively negative on the acquisition, given the high prices offered for a company that is loss making and may exert drag to AirAsia’s earnings in the near term. Nevertheless, we see potential turnaround by 2017-18, when BIG achieves its 20m membership target and able to extract synergies within AirAsia group.

Risks

• World crisis (ie. war, terrorism and epidemic outbreak), delay in KLIA2 completion, prolong surge in jet fuel and high speed train infrastructure between Singapore and P. Pinang.

Forecasts

• Unchanged.

Rating

• Buy

Positives

• 1) Sustaining lowest cost LCC operator in Asia with largest network and strong brand name; 2) Low jet fuel price; 3) Increasing ancillary income; and 4) Routes rationalization of major competitor MAS.

Negatives

• 1) Higher cost of living faced by consumers (from GST implementation and subsidy rationalization); and 2) Regional air-demand slowdown and political issues.
• Strengthening of US$.

Valuation

• We remain positive on AirAsia’s outlook given the expectation yield sustainability and lower jet fuel costs. Maintained Buy with unchanged TP of RM2.00 based on unchanged 20% discount to SOP.

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 4 Feb 2016