投资策略
产业周刊
2011-11-20 13:37
基本上，有两种方式购买产业。你可以向发展商购买尚在建筑的新单位（有些发展商有销售已完成的新单位，或有可能是未售出的单位），或者你可以从二手市场购买旧产业。
在1997年之前的“大马能”或高经济增长时代，最容易赚钱的方法便是趁产业推出市场时，向发展商订购3个单位。
当产业在2至3年后竣工时，你把其中2个单位卖出，所赚取的盈利将足以还清第三个单位的贷款。
那个时候，看见人群为了订购几个单位而排队几天，甚至是几晚，是很正常的事情，情况和1、2年前一样。就算是排队的号码也很值钱！
这就是“动机买家”（Motivated Buyers）的时代——人们都有一种“怕输”（福建话为的心态，害怕在所有单位被认购之前，无法订购到足够数量的好单位。
价格或发展商的信誉反而不是一个问题。当时的想法是以高价买，更高价卖！
选择信誉好发展商
自1997/98亚洲金融危机后，看见一些遭搁置或劣质项目，从而窥探向发展商购买产业的高风险。这些投资策略至今仍然有效。
想在今天的市场成功，你必须：
a）选择合适的产业类型，因为生活方式是当今最重要的因素。
买家所关注的东西包括摩登设计、设施，如游泳池、保安、至少2个停车位以及进出方便等等。
b）选择有信誉和记录良好的发展商，因为“发展商风险”极高。
c）选择合适的地点，即高需求以及目前和未来的供应低。
d）在合适的时机或价格购买。建议你看准购买的时机，以及避免在市场高峰期购买，以防万一当产业在2至3年竣工后，遇上经济低迷时期。理想的情况下，你应该在市场低迷或经济走出衰退时购买。
在这篇文章中，我们应该研究向发展商购买的优势。
【向发展商购产业的9大优势】
1）有机会以“廉价”购买
发展商的价格通常都是最低价。因此，在大多数情况下，你是以最低价购买，当然发展商已经为该单位作出合理定价，而且地理位置是十分优越的。
因此，重要的是要做好功课，以确保发展商的销售价格可媲美与同一地区内的其他发展商。为质量相似的项目作出价格比较的最佳方法是，根据每平方尺的价格。
2）在最短的时间内，价格快速升值
吸引许多投资者向发展商购买产业的最大优势是，价格通常在最短的时间内，最快升值。当产业在2至3年后竣工时，价格通常会增值至少10至20%，这计算了利息与持有成本。
假设你支付的首期是10至20%，这意味着在短短数年内，获得100%或更多现金回酬。
3）指定人士获得折扣
许多发展商为公务员、土著、公司职员及商业伙伴等等，提供5至10%折扣。如果你有幸获得折扣，应该考虑充分利用它，因机会不可能永远存在。
另一个可以享有折扣的方式便是，连同有兴趣的朋友、亲戚或者同事，向发展商购买。与其你们每个人各自购买1个单位，你可以组队，与发展商洽谈团购的折扣。
4）“早起的鸟儿”（EarlyBird）的优势
俗语说：“早起的鸟儿有虫吃”。如果你是一个“早鸟”，你可以选择你喜欢的单位，它可以面向一个公园、早晨的太阳、角头单位、高楼层等。通常，你还可以享有一个具吸引力的“早鸟”优惠！
许多投资者在发展商推出项目初期已作出投资，一旦后期阶段以更高的价格推出，早期阶段的价格将自动水涨船高。
5）全新单位
你可以给自己购买一个全新且富有最新现代设计与布局的产业，而不是购买一个已经20年的旧单位，需要不时进行重大维修或重新油漆。
6）保证无缺陷
根据房屋发展条例，住宅产业发展商从移交产业日期起的至少18个月内，保证产业无缺陷，如厕所泄漏、墙壁裂缝、瓷砖松脱等。
根据法律规定，发展商的律师会为此保留购价的5%。
值得注意的是，商用产业、服务式公寓以及店铺公寓并不会受到任何相关政府条规，或者任何房屋发展条例的约束。
另一方面，二手住宅产业的买家无法享受这种好处，因为他们是在“根据现状”的情况下购买。
7）具吸引力和创意的行销方案
a）100%融资。
b）免费律师费、印花税及支付费用。
c）最初几年的服务与维修费由发展商承担。
d）租金保证。
e）发展商提供赠品，如空调、卧室衣柜、厨柜以及装修厕所等。
8）最初的现金支出是最少的
在签署买卖协议时，你只是支付总数的10%。如果你申请90%贷款，在建筑期间，银行将逐步发放贷款给发展商。
一旦银行发放所有贷款，你必须开始支付利息和母金。
如果目前你的手头紧以及希望可以提高日后的收入，这或许是一个理想的财务计划。
9）对计划结婚的人有用
你可以安排结婚日期与梦想家园的竣工期在同一时期。
如果你希望产业价格在数年后有所增长，向发展商购买产业可让你以当前的价格“锁定”该产业。
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Latex glove makers to bounce back
Malaysia’s largest latex glove makers, many of them world leaders, had a tough 2011 on many fronts, as most experienced lower on-year profits and margins. However, analysts say their fortunes are improving going into 2012 as the emerging threat of bird flu in China and Hong Kong may attract investor interest to these counters.
Last Saturday’s death of a man in China from bird flu or influenza H5N1 — the reported human case in the country in 18 months — has put health authorities in the region on alert although the virus does not spread from person to person. In December, Hong Kong raised the city’s bird flu alert level to “serious” and culled thousands of chickens after three birds tested positive for the H5N1 virus strain.
Back in 2009, the H1N1 pandemic led to surge in demand for gloves which led to overstocking by healthcare providers and major distributors, subsequently contributing to a challenging operating environment for glove makers in 2011.
While it is unclear how serious a threat H5N1 is at this juncture, other factors are looking up for latex glove makers.
For one, the US dollar — the currency glove-makers are paid in — have appreciated versus the ringgit from their lows of around the 2.90-levels in 2011 to about 3.18 now. TA Securities, for instance, calculated that a 1% appreciation in the greenback could work out to some 2% to 3% higher earnings for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Group Bhd.
Hon Seow Mee, an analyst with HwangDBS Vickers Research, who earlier in predicting the rout for glove makers in 2011, sees the stronger greenback boosting revenues. “Our sensitivity analysis shows that every 1% increase in US dollar versus the ringgit could lift earnings by around 5%,” Hon wrote in a note dated Dec 20.
Nonetheless, given the volatility in currency trends, she pointed out that glove makers are likely to hedge US dollar exposure, something that could result in wide fluctuations in translation gains or losses. Whatever the case, the lower cost of latex is definitely a plus point for glove makers like Top Glove and Supermax which sell more gloves made of natural rubber than synthetic (nitrile) rubber, analysts said. Latex — which suddenly spiked from an average of RM3.30 per kg end-2009 to never-before-seen levels of RM10.60 per kg in February 2011 — accounts for 60% to 70% of production cost.
Prices had since declined by 37% to average around RM6.70 per kg in December 2011. The expected slower demand from Chinese automakers in 2012 means latex prices may continue to ease or stabilise at current levels, analysts said.
“China’s auto market has slowed down and tyres use up 70% of global natural rubber. A lower demand from the tyre industry will lead to excess capacity in the industry,” Jason Yap, an OSK Research analyst who tracks the rubber glove sector, told The Edge Financial Daily recently.
He expects latex prices to be less volatile in 2012. “As the European market is still uncertain, there will be less speculative elements on the commodity side,” Yap said, forecasting prices to stay around RM6 to RM7 per kg this year and over the longer term.
One factor to watch is how latex prices perform ahead of the low production “wintering” season between February and April, analysts said.
According to TA Research, a 1% drop in latex prices could lead to a 4% to 5% increase in net profit for Supermax and Top Glove. To be sure, actual numbers may differ given the impact of other factors like demand as well as product mix.
Nitrile currently accounts for 33% and 17% of Supermax and Top Glove’s production mix respectively, according to a recent report by TA Securities. New glove production lines are able to switch between producing nitrile and latex gloves, officials at JComments both companies have said.
Conversely, synthetic rubber gloves make up 80% of production of Hartalega Holdings Bhd, the world’s largest nitrile glove maker, which did much better than its peers in 2011. While the price of nitrile, a byproduct of crude oil, too has declined from its peak in mid-2011, the decline is smaller than that of latex, analysts said. Crude oil is still near US$100 (RM317) levels.
Latex prices, on the other hand, may slide further than the price of hard rubber, which is supported by the Thai-government.Thailand’s floor price of US$3 per kg for hard rubber implies a floor price of roughly RM5.70 for latex, which is 40% water, OSK’s Yap estimated.
He also sees latex glove players benefiting from the production of thinner gloves, which cost less to produce and had gained acceptance as customers searched for cheaper alternatives when latex prices spiked in 2011.
Given these factors, analysts think latex glove players have a greater chance of better growth in 2012 versus nitrile glovemakers.
TA Securities, for instance, recently wrote that “2012 could see a glut of nitrile gloves” given that manufacturers here and in China had ramped up production when demand was strong.
While a rise in nitrile prices is less of a worry, there is concern over potential competition from rivals in China, something that would put pressure on pricing and margins. According to Yap, the Chinese government is also offering rebates to its nation’s glove-makers, which allows them to undercut competitors.
Even so, analysts do not see the current leading nitrile glove player, Hartalega, faring badly in 2012.
“I don’t believe Hartalega will be significantly affected. Competition will be there but because of its high technology, it actually produces gloves targeting the high-end market, which I think Chinese [competitors] may take some time to penetrate,” said Yap.
Hartalega has 11 “buys”, one “hold” and zero “sell”, according to Bloomberg. With an RM8.44 price target, CIMB Research is the most bullish, while RHB Research is the least with a RM6.06 valuation. Hartalega closed at RM5.84 on Dec 30.
Kossan, on the other hand, has 11 “buys” and five “holds” with target prices ranging between Nomura Research’s RM2.51and OSK’s RM5. It closed at RM3.25 on Dec 30, up 2.85% for the year.
Is consensus behind the curve on Top Glove, or have prices run ahead of fundamentals?
While Top Glove has only five analysts calling it a “buy” versus seven “hold” and 10 “sells”, its stock price had continued to appreciate to reach RM5 on Dec 30. That’s ahead of 13 of the 17 price targets available on Bloomberg.
For Supermax, OSK is the most bullish of six analysts with a “buy”, valuing it at RM5.50. Kenanga Research has the lowest price target of RM2.94, with a “hold” recommendation.
Last Saturday’s death of a man in China from bird flu or influenza H5N1 — the reported human case in the country in 18 months — has put health authorities in the region on alert although the virus does not spread from person to person. In December, Hong Kong raised the city’s bird flu alert level to “serious” and culled thousands of chickens after three birds tested positive for the H5N1 virus strain.
Back in 2009, the H1N1 pandemic led to surge in demand for gloves which led to overstocking by healthcare providers and major distributors, subsequently contributing to a challenging operating environment for glove makers in 2011.
While it is unclear how serious a threat H5N1 is at this juncture, other factors are looking up for latex glove makers.
For one, the US dollar — the currency glove-makers are paid in — have appreciated versus the ringgit from their lows of around the 2.90-levels in 2011 to about 3.18 now. TA Securities, for instance, calculated that a 1% appreciation in the greenback could work out to some 2% to 3% higher earnings for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Group Bhd.
Hon Seow Mee, an analyst with HwangDBS Vickers Research, who earlier in predicting the rout for glove makers in 2011, sees the stronger greenback boosting revenues. “Our sensitivity analysis shows that every 1% increase in US dollar versus the ringgit could lift earnings by around 5%,” Hon wrote in a note dated Dec 20.
Nonetheless, given the volatility in currency trends, she pointed out that glove makers are likely to hedge US dollar exposure, something that could result in wide fluctuations in translation gains or losses. Whatever the case, the lower cost of latex is definitely a plus point for glove makers like Top Glove and Supermax which sell more gloves made of natural rubber than synthetic (nitrile) rubber, analysts said. Latex — which suddenly spiked from an average of RM3.30 per kg end-2009 to never-before-seen levels of RM10.60 per kg in February 2011 — accounts for 60% to 70% of production cost.
Prices had since declined by 37% to average around RM6.70 per kg in December 2011. The expected slower demand from Chinese automakers in 2012 means latex prices may continue to ease or stabilise at current levels, analysts said.
“China’s auto market has slowed down and tyres use up 70% of global natural rubber. A lower demand from the tyre industry will lead to excess capacity in the industry,” Jason Yap, an OSK Research analyst who tracks the rubber glove sector, told The Edge Financial Daily recently.
He expects latex prices to be less volatile in 2012. “As the European market is still uncertain, there will be less speculative elements on the commodity side,” Yap said, forecasting prices to stay around RM6 to RM7 per kg this year and over the longer term.
One factor to watch is how latex prices perform ahead of the low production “wintering” season between February and April, analysts said.
According to TA Research, a 1% drop in latex prices could lead to a 4% to 5% increase in net profit for Supermax and Top Glove. To be sure, actual numbers may differ given the impact of other factors like demand as well as product mix.
Nitrile currently accounts for 33% and 17% of Supermax and Top Glove’s production mix respectively, according to a recent report by TA Securities. New glove production lines are able to switch between producing nitrile and latex gloves, officials at JComments both companies have said.
Conversely, synthetic rubber gloves make up 80% of production of Hartalega Holdings Bhd, the world’s largest nitrile glove maker, which did much better than its peers in 2011. While the price of nitrile, a byproduct of crude oil, too has declined from its peak in mid-2011, the decline is smaller than that of latex, analysts said. Crude oil is still near US$100 (RM317) levels.
Latex prices, on the other hand, may slide further than the price of hard rubber, which is supported by the Thai-government.Thailand’s floor price of US$3 per kg for hard rubber implies a floor price of roughly RM5.70 for latex, which is 40% water, OSK’s Yap estimated.
He also sees latex glove players benefiting from the production of thinner gloves, which cost less to produce and had gained acceptance as customers searched for cheaper alternatives when latex prices spiked in 2011.
Given these factors, analysts think latex glove players have a greater chance of better growth in 2012 versus nitrile glovemakers.
TA Securities, for instance, recently wrote that “2012 could see a glut of nitrile gloves” given that manufacturers here and in China had ramped up production when demand was strong.
While a rise in nitrile prices is less of a worry, there is concern over potential competition from rivals in China, something that would put pressure on pricing and margins. According to Yap, the Chinese government is also offering rebates to its nation’s glove-makers, which allows them to undercut competitors.
Even so, analysts do not see the current leading nitrile glove player, Hartalega, faring badly in 2012.
“I don’t believe Hartalega will be significantly affected. Competition will be there but because of its high technology, it actually produces gloves targeting the high-end market, which I think Chinese [competitors] may take some time to penetrate,” said Yap.
Hartalega has 11 “buys”, one “hold” and zero “sell”, according to Bloomberg. With an RM8.44 price target, CIMB Research is the most bullish, while RHB Research is the least with a RM6.06 valuation. Hartalega closed at RM5.84 on Dec 30.
Kossan, on the other hand, has 11 “buys” and five “holds” with target prices ranging between Nomura Research’s RM2.51and OSK’s RM5. It closed at RM3.25 on Dec 30, up 2.85% for the year.
Is consensus behind the curve on Top Glove, or have prices run ahead of fundamentals?
While Top Glove has only five analysts calling it a “buy” versus seven “hold” and 10 “sells”, its stock price had continued to appreciate to reach RM5 on Dec 30. That’s ahead of 13 of the 17 price targets available on Bloomberg.
For Supermax, OSK is the most bullish of six analysts with a “buy”, valuing it at RM5.50. Kenanga Research has the lowest price target of RM2.94, with a “hold” recommendation.
Buy Genting shares: OSK
OSK Retail Research is advising traders to buy Genting Bhd shares at the current level or buy on weakness at above RM11.06 a share.
It said the stock might eventually exceed the tough resistance between RM11.78 to RM11.98 to clinch a record high.
OSK's cut-loss point is pegged at below RM11.06 a share.
"The RM11.06 level now represents the immediate strong support.
A minor support could be found at the lower level of RM10.68 and further down, strong support is detected at RM10.24 level.
"The RM11.78 and RM11.98 levels are the remaining tough resistance to overcome," it said in a research note today.
The research firm said Genting gained 24 sen yesterday after it cracked above the RM10 and RM11.06 consolidation phase in the September-October rebound
It said the stock might eventually exceed the tough resistance between RM11.78 to RM11.98 to clinch a record high.
OSK's cut-loss point is pegged at below RM11.06 a share.
"The RM11.06 level now represents the immediate strong support.
"The RM11.78 and RM11.98 levels are the remaining tough resistance to overcome," it said in a research note today.
The research firm said Genting gained 24 sen yesterday after it cracked above the RM10 and RM11.06 consolidation phase in the September-October rebound
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Your 10 questions for Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai
With the volatility of both latex prices and currencies, will the profit and growth of the glove industry be sustainable, and the targeted world market share by Top Glove achievable?
In the last one year, players in the rubber glove industry were surprised by the sharp and sudden increase in the latex prices which was at its all-time high of RM10.99/kg early this year. Coupled with the unfavourable currency movements, we were hard hit. However, just like any other problems in life, after you've encountered it once, you become wiser and are more prepared in overcoming it in the future.
We have come to accept that we are in an era of intensified economic cycles and strong volatility due to uncertain global economic situation, the unpredictable weather condition and rampant natural disasters. Therefore, we have to evolve our business model and re-strategise accordingly. We have learned that while being big, it is important to remain agile by having a diversified product mix and having flexible facilities that could respond to different market demands quickly. Once the volatility is factored in, profit and growth should become sustainable. After all, demand is still robust, as glove is a necessity in the healthcare sector.
We expect to see a 30% improvement in our profit in the coming financial year due to the lower latex prices and stronger US dollar.
Given our strong and positive net cash position, this would now be an excellent opportunity to gain market share. During such tough times, the cash-rich would have the ability to hold on. We would also have the financial capability to acquire other companies. Top Glove is still expanding organically and with a potential merger and acquisition (M&A) it is likely we could achieve the targeted world market share of 30%
How did you start your company from such a small size, to what it has become today? How much capital did you spend when you first started your rubber glove business? Who is your mentor?
My mentors are some of the successful Malaysian and international business entrepreneurs.
In 1991, foreseeing a larger emphasis on healthcare, I channelled my glove manufacturing skills into entrepreneurship. My wife and I saved very hard to come up with RM180,000 to start our business.
We had to earn the trust of customers, suppliers, bankers, staff and business associates. Not many companies were willing to order from us but I was not defeated in spite of numerous rejections. Eventually, our quality, cost efficiency and competitive pricing spoke for themselves and we established our presence worldwide. It was the sheer passion for what I enjoyed doing and what I believed in that gave me the strength and determination to keep working at expanding the business.
As we progressed and grew our business, research and development initiatives were undertaken to ensure we kept up with the stringent requirements and demands from our customers and to achieve continuous quality and efficiency. We believe in quality products, always keeping our cost low and being efficient. These are arguably some of the most important criteria for a good company to stay fit regardless of the economic situation.
Having the foresight to expand capacity was also another important factor to our success. It enabled the company to capture the growth in the rubber glove industry. Top Glove's focus on being an original equipment manufacturer since the early days allowed greater economies of scale which translated to more competitive pricing. By mid-2004 we became the world's largest rubber glove manufacturer. Today, we export to approximately 1,000 customers in over 185 countries through our sales and marketing offices in Malaysia, the United States and Germany.
Looking at the achievements of Top Glove today, no doubt your employees are the best assets in making this huge success a reality. How do you motivate your staff in delivering results for the company?
Yes, you're right. Our employees are our greatest assets. Many have stayed on with the company since the early days and have grown together with the company. The long-serving management team provides continuity and stability to the business and enables the development of forward-looking strategies. These strategic initiatives are in turn executed by a highly skilled and dedicated workforce.
We recognise that each employee has different needs and different motivating factors. Therefore we try to cover all bases. At the most basic level, we ensure that our employees' contributions do not go unnoticed. We reward them accordingly based on their performance through a competitive remuneration package, promotion, bonus as well as employees shares and option scheme. We also have monthly recognition for staff that have demonstrated the desired behaviour and delivered the best results in their respective areas. We also invest in the development of our people through regular training. At Top Glove, there is no limit to a person's growth. He or she has every opportunity to become a GM, MD or even a chairman.
When employees have a strong sense of belonging, they voluntarily go the distance to deliver the results. Therefore, at Top Glove, we encourage open communication and feedback from employees at all levels. We are like a big family that shares and learns from each other. Besides that, we are also committed to their health and safety. We monitor their body mass index (BMI) and strongly discourage smoking. In fact, it is a policy that we do not hire smokers. Top Glove has also employed two corporate nutritionists to design the company's cafeteria menu and counsel our employees on suitable diets for individuals. In addition, Top Glove offers its employees subsidised sports facilities to encourage them to exercise.
Besides rubber gloves , what do you or Top Glove plan to venture into and how can Malaysia be ahead or remain competitive in the making of rubber products?
Top Glove will focus on doing what it is good at. We currently have 20 glove factories in Malaysia, Thailand and China manufacturing more than 10 types of rubber gloves which include, among others, examination, surgical, household, cleanroom and industrial gloves. In addition we have moved upstream several years back to set up two latex concentrate factories for better quality control and to ensure more consistent supply.
In the long run, we plan to further integrate upstream into rubber plantation to minimise the fluctuation of rubber price impact on our earnings; as well as to balance our upstream and downstream activities and investment performance. Top Glove's demand from its rubber glove production is big enough to justify having its own plantation to supply its own latex needs. This project is for the long term. We have to start today; or else we would not ever have rubber plantations. These plans were already in the pipeline regardless of the current challenges.
In order for Malaysia to remain competitive in the making of rubber products, the rubber products industry would need to diversify further, emphasising on high value-added and high technology rubber products.
The Government also ought to step up production of rubber to ensure that the local producers can continue to secure latex at a competitive price. In addition, to provide support in the form of technical assistance in research and development, and in promoting our products in the international market through tradeshows and educational campaigns on the benefits of rubber-based products.
What is the one advice you would give to entrepreneurs who are struggling to build their business? What are some of the guiding points you would ask them to be mindful of?
Success is a journey and not a destination. It does not come easy at all. Hardwork is one of the most important elements. There is no short cut around hardwork. But hardwork alone is not sufficient, we also need to work smart and have good teamwork.
We must also commit to our dream and be persistent in the face of challenges. Never give up for if you give up the first time you fail, you will only end in failure. Just keep looking ahead, stay calm and be focused, continue doing what you are best at until you succeed. In time, excellent results will be yours. Always think positive and stay fit physically and mentally.
The important thing is profitability, there is no point being large but losing money. We are guided by the investment direction of “earn two healthy dollars and spend one efficient dollar”. What it means is that we should only spend RM1 for every RM2 earned and ensure that we earn it in a healthy manner. It is important that every company has a business direction. And always plan ahead to capture the growth in the market by setting medium and long-term targets.
Underlying all these, the entrepreneur needs to be principled and never compromise his integrity be honest and transparent.
I read that you are very health conscious. Are you a vegetarian, and what does your diet consist of? What sort of exercise do you still do?
Health is very important. We need to have a healthy body and a healthy mind in order to perform at our best and make the best decisions. I try to ensure that I eat healthily, work out often and have enough rest. Only by taking care of myself am I able to do well and compete in the intense global market. My wife and son are vegetarians but I am not. I just prefer to eat more vegetables. Exercising is part of my work schedule.
I exercise four days a week, which consist of two days of badminton and two days of evening golf. At times I will also go for a round of table tennis.
Are you a moderate or a liberal person? What are some of the life principles that you truly hold on to?
I don't think there is one word that can adequately describe a person. I can be moderate in my views on some matters and liberal on others. In my life, I have always adhered to a few simple guiding principles:
i) To always add positive values to my family, my company and the community
ii) To earn money ethically, compete in a healthy manner and to take care of society
iii) To always think positive, stay healthy and be honest
What do you want from life?
I am very driven to succeed. And success means staying healthy and doing well in all aspects of my life, including my family and my company and being able to contribute to the society.
You are one of Malaysia's most well liked corporate figures because of your humility and honest ways. Is this due to your humble background or was it something you learnt on your own through religion or a mentor?
Thank you for the compliment. To me, respect has got to be earned. It is not given nor can it be demanded. My humble background, education, Buddhist teachings and some life philosophies played a big part in how I live my life. Since young, I was also taught by my father to have zi ai or self-respect and self-discipline. We need to be mindful not to do anything to harm ourselves and we need to always take good care of ourselves. Therefore, I do not believe in behaving unethically for short-term gain but which in the long run may burn myself and destroy my self-worth. Likewise, being humble and respectful of others is also respecting myself.
As you approach the second half of your life, what is it that you hope to achieve for yourself and your company?
I have always enjoyed working and keeping myself busy. I aim to stay healthy and live until 100 years old and it is my target to remain active till then. I hope Top Glove will be even bigger and stronger by the time I hand over the reins.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
我的股票Portfolio21.12.2011
2011年已经接近尾声了，每年我们都在担心着下一轮经济风暴。2012风暴来不来？
世界已经从欧美国家转移到中国和亚洲经济了。如果这个区域经济开始放缓，肯定冲击比欧债问题严重，因为这个是长期的问题。
马来西亚明年可能大选了。2011我的股票获利不是太好，主要是因为玩太多投机的买卖了。
2012年我必须开始累计股票，而不是一味投机了。希望我研究和看好的公司可以表现好吧。
世界已经从欧美国家转移到中国和亚洲经济了。如果这个区域经济开始放缓，肯定冲击比欧债问题严重，因为这个是长期的问题。
马来西亚明年可能大选了。2011我的股票获利不是太好，主要是因为玩太多投机的买卖了。
2012年我必须开始累计股票，而不是一味投机了。希望我研究和看好的公司可以表现好吧。
| Buy At | Quantity | Cost | MktPrice | MktValue | Gain/Loss | |
| PowerRoot | 0.5964 | 500 | 298.18 | 0.480 | 240.00 | (58.18) |
| Latexx | 2.40 | 200 | 493.15 | 1.860 | 372.00 | (121.15) |
| HuaYang | 1.580 | 100 | 171.05 | 1.130 | 113.00 | (58.05) |
| HuaYang | 1.400 | 200 | 294.00 | 1.130 | 226.00 | (68.00) |
| HuaYang(Bonus 1:3) | 0.000 | 100 | 0.00 | 1.130 | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| UOADev | 1.500 | 100 | 163.05 | 1.330 | 133.00 | (30.05) |
| UOADev | 1.453 | 100 | 159.25 | 1.330 | 133.00 | (26.25) |
| KKB | 1.600 | 200 | 334.00 | 1.660 | 332.00 | (2.00) |
| Leader | 1.000 | 3000 | 3004.90 | 1.010 | 3030.00 | 25.10 |
| Fitters | 0.900 | 500 | 463.27 | 0.855 | 427.50 | (35.77) |
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
房地产投资-创造净现金流最重要
看了investalks Tan81的分享，自己大概做了整合。
简单的说，房产的银行供款，头期的利息，管理费用，维修费用，税务，保险等，
都是房产投资的开支。租金，停车位，给与租户的服务等，就属于你的收入。
拿收入扣除所有开支，每个月有剩余的，就是正现金流的投资。做不到正现金流的人，没有办法投资，这个还好。
最糟糕的是，我们不断看到，因为担心自己买不到房子，或者贪图房价继续上涨的人，
开始买入房子，我们开始替这些人冒汗。他们以为自己在做着房产投资。
房产，是需要管理，需要出租的。
除非你是发展商，你才会靠“卖”来赚钱。
不然，你靠“买”，一开始，你就是 Loser 来的。
去年在北海的聚会时，我就分享过了，真正赚钱的人，都是卖东西的，不是买东西的。
有些人，也许会辩驳，那么我把房子买了下来，卖出去，还不是一样赚钱？
没有错，只要你卖得出的时候，就是赚钱。万一，你卖不出呢？
为什么会卖不出？
第一，风暴来的时候，你就卖不出。经济有周期，有起，就有落。我们迟早会面对经济不景气的。你买进来的房产，到时要怎么卖？ 当然，有人会说，在风暴来之前，我把它们都卖出，就好了。真的有那么准吗？ 如果这么会看Timing，每次周期，你也可以很容易的赚几百万了。每5到10年，做一轮就好了。你做得到吗？
第二，买卖房产的费用很高。你自己计算一下，扣除Agent fees，律师费，税务，银行利息，贷款惩罚等等，你会发现到，屋价没有相差 RM100K，是赚不到钱的。现在开始发现到，卖房子，要卖很高价了吗？ 要差额RM100K以上，这么快，这么容易达到吗？
第三，房产转让的时间很长。一单交易，快的话，就3-6个月，慢的话，说不定要花整年的时间。由于买卖房产，要看 Timing，交易的时间过长，可能会破化了你的 timing 的选择。
崇尚正现金流的投资者，他们怎么做呢？
他们把房子分隔成月份，“卖给”租户，或者说，把房子租出去。
由于目的在于租出去，一开始的考量，就会是人口流入或流出。
只有人口大量流入，租金高于投资开支的地点，才会被考虑。
一开始这么做，就降低了买房子的风险。因为买价过高，就会损害现金流，也做不成这个投资了。
所以，正现金流的投资，一向来，都是不容易，或者被认为是困难的。
当然，为了面对经济不景气的周期冲击，现金流不可以刚刚好，最好还有多几%额外的安全空间。那么在经济低潮的时期，就可以通过降低租金来获取租户。一个好地点，就算再糟糕，也不会空无一人的。
要获取正现金流的投资， 第一就是要找到这样的投资机会。很多人连这个门槛也过不了了。
第二，要长期获得现金流，就必须出租房子，管理租户。很多人找到了机会，也做不久，因为没有办法管理这些租户。更加不要说，第三，如何可以大量的去做，管理更多租户。
这个世界，很多人以为买了房子，不自己住，就是投资。
事实上，是错误的。房产投资的方式，我觉得最好的是可以制造现金流的。Free cash flow concept在地产投资很重要。简单说就是让你的租户帮你供家供楼，最后资产还是你的。
事实上，是错误的。房产投资的方式，我觉得最好的是可以制造现金流的。Free cash flow concept在地产投资很重要。简单说就是让你的租户帮你供家供楼，最后资产还是你的。
简单的说，房产的银行供款，头期的利息，管理费用，维修费用，税务，保险等，
都是房产投资的开支。租金，停车位，给与租户的服务等，就属于你的收入。
拿收入扣除所有开支，每个月有剩余的，就是正现金流的投资。
最糟糕的是，我们不断看到，因为担心自己买不到房子，或者贪图房价继续上涨的人，
开始买入房子，我们开始替这些人冒汗。他们以为自己在做着房产投资。
房产，是需要管理，需要出租的。
除非你是发展商，你才会靠“卖”来赚钱。
不然，你靠“买”，一开始，你就是 Loser 来的。
去年在北海的聚会时，我就分享过了，真正赚钱的人，都是卖东西的，不是买东西的。
有些人，也许会辩驳，那么我把房子买了下来，卖出去，还不是一样赚钱？
没有错，只要你卖得出的时候，就是赚钱。万一，你卖不出呢？
为什么会卖不出？
第一，风暴来的时候，你就卖不出。经济有周期，有起，就有落。我们迟早会面对经济不景气的。你买进来的房产，到时要怎么卖？ 当然，有人会说，在风暴来之前，我把它们都卖出，就好了。真的有那么准吗？ 如果这么会看Timing，每次周期，你也可以很容易的赚几百万了。每5到10年，做一轮就好了。你做得到吗？
第二，买卖房产的费用很高。你自己计算一下，扣除Agent fees，律师费，税务，银行利息，贷款惩罚等等，你会发现到，屋价没有相差 RM100K，是赚不到钱的。现在开始发现到，卖房子，要卖很高价了吗？ 要差额RM100K以上，这么快，这么容易达到吗？
第三，房产转让的时间很长。一单交易，快的话，就3-6个月，慢的话，说不定要花整年的时间。由于买卖房产，要看 Timing，交易的时间过长，可能会破化了你的 timing 的选择。
崇尚正现金流的投资者，他们怎么做呢？
他们把房子分隔成月份，“卖给”租户，或者说，把房子租出去。
由于目的在于租出去，一开始的考量，就会是人口流入或流出。
只有人口大量流入，租金高于投资开支的地点，才会被考虑。
一开始这么做，就降低了买房子的风险。因为买价过高，就会损害现金流，也做不成这个投资了。
所以，正现金流的投资，一向来，都是不容易，或者被认为是困难的。
当然，为了面对经济不景气的周期冲击，现金流不可以刚刚好，最好还有多几%额外的安全空间。那么在经济低潮的时期，就可以通过降低租金来获取租户。一个好地点，就算再糟糕，也不会空无一人的。
要获取正现金流的投资， 第一就是要找到这样的投资机会。很多人连这个门槛也过不了了。
第二，要长期获得现金流，就必须出租房子，管理租户。很多人找到了机会，也做不久，因为没有办法管理这些租户。更加不要说，第三，如何可以大量的去做，管理更多租户。
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Claim your “Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M)” Now
For those who are eligible, the registration will be opened until 10th January 2012 at various locations including schools. Registration form we be distributed via newspapers and also can be downloaded from Ministry of Finance website.
An action will be taken against people who claim the one-off RM500 aid, but not qualify & submitting false information.
Below are the eligibility criteria,
- Malaysian Citizen
- Gross household income of less than RM3,000 per month.
- Senior citizen who are more than 60 years old, stay alone & earn less than RM3,000 per month
- Those receiving aid from the Welfare Department under the e-Kasih were also eligible
- Head of family with dependant
- Father, mother or single with dependant
- Married children is considered separate household
林國泰：博奕結合休閑‧雲頂營業多元化
雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）擬斥資38億美元（約120億令吉）在美國邁阿密興建全球最大賭場兼休閒勝地，這項計劃舉世矚目，卻也令市 場人士擔心，這項計劃可能引來一些爭議，特別是賭場往往與“偏門收入”聯繫在一起，其所造成的社會與經濟影響效應，能否超越博奕收入所產生的經濟效益，確 實讓人關注。
雲頂主席兼首席執行員丹斯里林國泰表示，他有信心將亞洲的成功模式轉移到海外其他地方。該公司在新加坡經營47億新元（約115億令吉）的賭場兼度假勝地 “聖淘沙名勝世界”，手上也擁有充裕的現金，可以在現金緊張的美國市場派上用場，況且美國政府正探討減少失業率、降低國家財政開銷等方案，為雲頂的擴張計 劃減少擋路石。
林國泰認為，賭場結合有益身心的度假勝地，是比較理想的業務組合，不論是從金融或政治的層面來看，這不純粹只是博奕而已。
“如果只是為了賺錢，我們不會為了這個目的扼殺自己的前程。”
雲頂集團在大馬、新加坡及紐約擁有資產，主要圍繞在主題公園及度假勝地，賭場只是另一個吸引遊客的賣點。
林國泰表示，雲頂集團的經營方式也像家庭企業，他宣稱，員工不太常摩擦，部份原因是他們的就業環境不錯、工資也相當有競爭力。
林國泰（簡稱林）日前在新加坡接受《華爾街日報》（簡稱華）專訪，以下是訪談內容摘錄：
華：雲頂集團正把業務擴展至亞洲以外地區，你認為是否能將亞洲的成功模式複制，然後搬到美國的邁阿密市場？
林：當然可以，而且相信會成功。我們指的是邁阿密，不是擁有30個賭場的拉斯維加斯，邁阿密是一個世 界級大都會，假如你準備前往南美洲，轉換班機的地方會是邁阿密，歐洲人也經常前往邁阿密經商與度假。邁阿密是一個中心點，比較不足的是缺乏與亞洲的聯繫， 如果能將邁阿密與亞洲聯繫在一起，我認為那將會是一個令人雀躍的地方。
為博奕事業增添休閑概念
華：你對經營賭場的概念，如何與一般人認為的抽雪茄、飲酒的賭場區分？
林：在西方世界，他們將博奕視為賭博，在亞洲，博奕的發展，不單單只是賭博，也許西方市場在開始有關行業時純粹是賭博；可是，在亞洲並非如此，博奕的發展提供不少就業機會，也能讓一家人前來度假、消遣，這並沒有甚麼不妥。
我們從休閒的角度發展博奕，提供人們選擇的空間，他們可以到賭場或度假勝地消遣，而不一定只是吸引賭客，他們可以自己定位。以雲頂集團來說，當我們投資博奕，需要的是額外的元素如家庭休閒，我們認為可以帶給當地社區、甚至是一個國家最大的利益
華：與博彩背道而馳的家庭消遣概念，如何從雲頂集團衍生而來？
林：在大馬的熱帶氣候，英國人習慣到高原勝地避暑，以遠離熱帶炎熱的氣候。何不讓亞洲人也帶他們的家人一起來度假？這就是雲頂集團當年開始發展高原勝地的推動因素，那時腦海里並沒有閃過單單經營博奕務的念頭。
不過，在時任首相的倡議之下，為加速推動大馬的經濟發展，需要更多的投資、興建更多的大型設備、塑造更多就業機會，進而推動經濟成長，這就是大馬經濟成功的過程。先父林梧桐的成功事蹟，也是許多人認為大馬成功的實例。
數字不是最重要的
華：你是否花相當多的時間在公司每日的運作、或比較多監督式的管理？
林：對我來說，數字不是最主要的，身為集團領導人，我要兼顧的是數字以外的東西，集團的經營理念儘量簡單，我們要顧及的是共同目標，好比一支足球隊，每個人扮演不同的角色，假如每個人是進攻者，這樣就不大好。
我儘量確保大家工作開心，不讓他們認為那是朝九晚五的工作，沒有他們，我也動不了，這是我看待本身角色的重點，如果你問我複雜的管理決策，坦白說，我沒有。
華：一些亞洲國家，包括新加坡，嘗試限制博奕活動在遊客範圍，而不鼓勵自己的人民前往賭場，請問：政府的條規是否妨礙你們業務的發展？
林：我不認同“只供外國人”的策略，這樣等於是單程交通，凡事必須互惠互利，你不希望只來賭博的遊客，而是期待打造一個可讓遊客感到舒適的地方，同時可讓他們瞭解你的國家。
把僱員當成一家人
華：你如何看待僱員對公司的滿意度，有助於企業的成功？
林：對我們的僱員，我們是以大家庭成員來看待他們，我們希望他們感到舒適、開心。譬如，在郵輪上，我 們面對工作准證限制的情況不多，那是一個學習交易的平台。我們尊重本身的員工，他們不需要填寫一大堆表格或是蓋上手印，如果受到類似刑事犯的對待，那不是 他們準備面對的情況。基於國家保安考量，我的方案是：要當一名負責任、讓工人信服的僱主，如果工人開心，他們也不會做錯事
雲頂主席兼首席執行員丹斯里林國泰表示，他有信心將亞洲的成功模式轉移到海外其他地方。該公司在新加坡經營47億新元（約115億令吉）的賭場兼度假勝地 “聖淘沙名勝世界”，手上也擁有充裕的現金，可以在現金緊張的美國市場派上用場，況且美國政府正探討減少失業率、降低國家財政開銷等方案，為雲頂的擴張計 劃減少擋路石。
林國泰認為，賭場結合有益身心的度假勝地，是比較理想的業務組合，不論是從金融或政治的層面來看，這不純粹只是博奕而已。
“如果只是為了賺錢，我們不會為了這個目的扼殺自己的前程。”
雲頂集團在大馬、新加坡及紐約擁有資產，主要圍繞在主題公園及度假勝地，賭場只是另一個吸引遊客的賣點。
林國泰表示，雲頂集團的經營方式也像家庭企業，他宣稱，員工不太常摩擦，部份原因是他們的就業環境不錯、工資也相當有競爭力。
林國泰（簡稱林）日前在新加坡接受《華爾街日報》（簡稱華）專訪，以下是訪談內容摘錄：
華：雲頂集團正把業務擴展至亞洲以外地區，你認為是否能將亞洲的成功模式複制，然後搬到美國的邁阿密市場？
林：當然可以，而且相信會成功。我們指的是邁阿密，不是擁有30個賭場的拉斯維加斯，邁阿密是一個世 界級大都會，假如你準備前往南美洲，轉換班機的地方會是邁阿密，歐洲人也經常前往邁阿密經商與度假。邁阿密是一個中心點，比較不足的是缺乏與亞洲的聯繫， 如果能將邁阿密與亞洲聯繫在一起，我認為那將會是一個令人雀躍的地方。
為博奕事業增添休閑概念
華：你對經營賭場的概念，如何與一般人認為的抽雪茄、飲酒的賭場區分？
林：在西方世界，他們將博奕視為賭博，在亞洲，博奕的發展，不單單只是賭博，也許西方市場在開始有關行業時純粹是賭博；可是，在亞洲並非如此，博奕的發展提供不少就業機會，也能讓一家人前來度假、消遣，這並沒有甚麼不妥。
我們從休閒的角度發展博奕，提供人們選擇的空間，他們可以到賭場或度假勝地消遣，而不一定只是吸引賭客，他們可以自己定位。以雲頂集團來說，當我們投資博奕，需要的是額外的元素如家庭休閒，我們認為可以帶給當地社區、甚至是一個國家最大的利益
華：與博彩背道而馳的家庭消遣概念，如何從雲頂集團衍生而來？
林：在大馬的熱帶氣候，英國人習慣到高原勝地避暑，以遠離熱帶炎熱的氣候。何不讓亞洲人也帶他們的家人一起來度假？這就是雲頂集團當年開始發展高原勝地的推動因素，那時腦海里並沒有閃過單單經營博奕務的念頭。
不過，在時任首相的倡議之下，為加速推動大馬的經濟發展，需要更多的投資、興建更多的大型設備、塑造更多就業機會，進而推動經濟成長，這就是大馬經濟成功的過程。先父林梧桐的成功事蹟，也是許多人認為大馬成功的實例。
數字不是最重要的
華：你是否花相當多的時間在公司每日的運作、或比較多監督式的管理？
林：對我來說，數字不是最主要的，身為集團領導人，我要兼顧的是數字以外的東西，集團的經營理念儘量簡單，我們要顧及的是共同目標，好比一支足球隊，每個人扮演不同的角色，假如每個人是進攻者，這樣就不大好。
我儘量確保大家工作開心，不讓他們認為那是朝九晚五的工作，沒有他們，我也動不了，這是我看待本身角色的重點，如果你問我複雜的管理決策，坦白說，我沒有。
華：一些亞洲國家，包括新加坡，嘗試限制博奕活動在遊客範圍，而不鼓勵自己的人民前往賭場，請問：政府的條規是否妨礙你們業務的發展？
林：我不認同“只供外國人”的策略，這樣等於是單程交通，凡事必須互惠互利，你不希望只來賭博的遊客，而是期待打造一個可讓遊客感到舒適的地方，同時可讓他們瞭解你的國家。
把僱員當成一家人
華：你如何看待僱員對公司的滿意度，有助於企業的成功？
林：對我們的僱員，我們是以大家庭成員來看待他們，我們希望他們感到舒適、開心。譬如，在郵輪上，我 們面對工作准證限制的情況不多，那是一個學習交易的平台。我們尊重本身的員工，他們不需要填寫一大堆表格或是蓋上手印，如果受到類似刑事犯的對待，那不是 他們準備面對的情況。基於國家保安考量，我的方案是：要當一名負責任、讓工人信服的僱主，如果工人開心，他們也不會做錯事
Monday, November 28, 2011
新加坡賭業起飛‧雲頂末季業績料更好
雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）第三季淨利挫22.02%至5億9千719萬2千令吉，首9個月淨利按年增長20.55%至20億9千458萬8千令吉，基於新加坡聖淘沙名勝世界第四季料吸引更多豪客進場，分析員多預計末季與2011財政年會更好。
大部份分析員並未因其第三季淨利下挫而下調評級，反認為是區域最廉宜的賭場股，料可從穩定大馬市場和起飛的新加坡賭業獲利。
馬銀行研究與黃氏唯高達研究認為，預計聖淘沙名勝世界西區（West Zone）年杪開放，豪客賭廳增加3倍後料吸引更多豪客進場。“樂園中的“變形金鋼”城12月3日開放，長假將吸引更多人潮前往。
紐約聖淘沙則於10月28日營運。
雲頂首9個月，國內賭業賺益按年增長0.3%，主要在豪客賭局更具運氣。同期新加坡賭場也貢獻73.7%稅前盈利，其第三季賺益按年增長2.4%，按季挫1.6%。倫敦賭場營業額按季雙位數增長，勝算則按年增長20%，主要是豪客與普通賭客都有增長。
雲頂大馬有望改善賺益
種植業因原棕油價按季下跌而失利，預料旗下雲頂大馬（GENM，4715，主板貿服組）印尼更多種植地成熟，有望改善賺益。
雲頂第三季核心淨利按年僅增2%、按季增1%，主要是在美元債券交易上失利；另外，電力挫4.2%至1億4千零80萬令吉，儘管電費調整，但仍不能抵銷按年增長9%的高煤炭價拖累；油氣按年挫205%至虧損420萬令吉，主要是人力成本提高所致。
肯納格因其聖淘沙名勝世界業務雖有改善，然而仍低於預期，下修雲頂2011至2013財政年淨利預測4%至6%；黃氏唯高達下修淨利預測3%至9%；達證券喜愛雲頂，因是雲頂新加坡（GENS）的廉宜代言者。
各證券行維持雲頂大馬淨利預測，主要是新加坡賭場業務改善，英國賭場轉虧為盈，紐約新建賭場初期營運良好，平均每台賭機每日勝算564美元，高於預測70%，預計不過回復正常預測。
Saturday, November 26, 2011
购迈阿密名胜世界 云顶近期公布细节
云顶马来西亚（GenM，4715，主板贸服股）表示，很快将对外公布美国迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图中的收购计划。
云顶（Genting，3182，主板贸服股）向大马交易所报备，配合迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图，云顶子公司——迈阿密名胜世界可能在迈阿密沿海一带开设一间赌场及酒店大楼。
云顶企业事务部副总裁郑成福（译音）指出，截至目前，公司无法给予任何评论。
云顶于9月公布迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图，该蓝图为综合发展计划，囊括主题式酒店（5000间酒店房间）、一栋零售平台（拥有会展中心）、娱乐商场、餐厅、商业设施和住宅大楼。
同时，公司也收购一块拥有永久地契的产业称Omni中心，该收购也是迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图的部分计划。
Omni中心座落于迈阿密佛罗里达市中心，该地段拥有占地6万400平方尺的购物商场、3万2500平方尺的办公楼、希尔顿酒店（525间房间）和停车场（2300个停车位）。
云顶马来西亚股价起起伏伏，今日以3.85令吉开市，一度涨至3.87令吉，早盘以3.86令吉暂收，半日成交量为178万9500股。
闭市时，云顶马来西亚以3.85令吉作收，下跌1仙或0.26%，全日成交量518万2000股。
云顶今日以上涨2仙（10.30令吉）之姿的优势报开，该股早盘在10.22令吉和10.06令吉的价位游走，早盘休市时报10.08令吉，下跌20仙或1.95%，半日成交量为133万1300股。
云顶终场报10.02令吉，下跌26仙或2.53%，终日成交量为372万3900股。
云顶（Genting，3182，主板贸服股）向大马交易所报备，配合迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图，云顶子公司——迈阿密名胜世界可能在迈阿密沿海一带开设一间赌场及酒店大楼。
云顶企业事务部副总裁郑成福（译音）指出，截至目前，公司无法给予任何评论。
云顶于9月公布迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图，该蓝图为综合发展计划，囊括主题式酒店（5000间酒店房间）、一栋零售平台（拥有会展中心）、娱乐商场、餐厅、商业设施和住宅大楼。
同时，公司也收购一块拥有永久地契的产业称Omni中心，该收购也是迈阿密名胜世界发展蓝图的部分计划。
Omni中心座落于迈阿密佛罗里达市中心，该地段拥有占地6万400平方尺的购物商场、3万2500平方尺的办公楼、希尔顿酒店（525间房间）和停车场（2300个停车位）。
云顶马来西亚股价起起伏伏，今日以3.85令吉开市，一度涨至3.87令吉，早盘以3.86令吉暂收，半日成交量为178万9500股。
闭市时，云顶马来西亚以3.85令吉作收，下跌1仙或0.26%，全日成交量518万2000股。
云顶今日以上涨2仙（10.30令吉）之姿的优势报开，该股早盘在10.22令吉和10.06令吉的价位游走，早盘休市时报10.08令吉，下跌20仙或1.95%，半日成交量为133万1300股。
云顶终场报10.02令吉，下跌26仙或2.53%，终日成交量为372万3900股。
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