米兰兵法：投资先了解自己

我经常问： “我有10万令吉资金。我应该使用这资金来购买价值10万令吉的产业而不必贷款？还是以这10万令吉作为20%首期款，再贷款40万令吉来购买数项总值50万令吉的产业？”

这问题看似简单，但并不易解答。欲得到答案，你首先必须了解自己的投资概况。

所谓的独特投资概况因人而异，下面我们一一来探讨。

（1）年龄

年纪越轻，代表你能承担更多风险。在生活上，我们总有冒险的时候，尤其在投资和吸取利润方面。

年轻时，你必须勇于冒险，否则就可能被逼在年长时面对更多风险。

（a）贷款投资产业也需承担一些风险。因此，越年轻，你应该借贷越多贷款。所以，你允许使用10万令吉作为首期款，以及贷款至少40万令吉来购买数项总值超过50万令吉的产业。此外，相对与较年长的人士，你能够选择比较长的贷款期限，从而减轻每个月的贷款负担。

（b）如果你已经退休或即将退休，以10万现金购买一项产业，是最安全投资方式。

（c）如果年龄处在中间阶段，借贷你有能力负担的贷款，是最佳选择。

无论你处在哪个年龄层，都必须确保你的潜能回酬超越借贷成本。贷款购买能增值的资产，如产业，一直都是合理的融资方式， 而不是贷款作没有价值的开支（如度假），甚至购买会贬值的产品（如汽车、电视机等）。

（2）风险承担能力

每个人应对和管理风险的方式都不同；一些人是超保守型、一些则可能非常积极，另一些甚至属于顽固的赌徒。最了解自己的人，是你自己。因此，不够了解你的人士，很难给予最适合你的投资或策略建议。

市场上有很多不同的风险承担能力相关问答题，而我认为，它们大部分都过于简单。我至今还未发现一些类似个人档案的风险或投资概况分析。个人档案能让你详细和客观地分析你的个性或强项和弱点、哪类型人士适合与你合作，你适合什么工作等。

另一个重点是，你的风险承担能力不会保持不变，而是会随着年龄增长和经验更丰富而改变。一般上，第一或第二项产业投资最让你困扰，因你的经验仍不足；但之后购买产业时，你会感到越来越简单。

（3）情绪化的心态

投资容易影响情绪，因这涉及你辛苦赚取的储蓄。

投资时常出现的情绪包括：贪心、害怕、耐心、守纪律、胆量、自我、担心、无法冷静等。若无法控制情绪，它们将是你最大的敌人。

（4）融资计划的速度和时间的长度

如果你想很快致富，比如在5年内取得100万令吉，你所承担的风险，相对会高过计划在10年内取得100万令吉的人。

时限短风险大

融资计划的速度越快，或者时限越短，意味着你必须承担更大的风险。

（5）个人的强项与缺点

你必须开拓你的强项，以及积极改进自己的缺点。若是已婚人士，应考量和依赖配偶的财务强点和弱点。

比如，你的个性是属于比较害羞，个人沟通与谈判技巧是你的缺点，那你可能很难在产业投资方面取得成就，因你必须与很多人接洽，如产业洽谈商、卖家、银行、律师、租户等。

总结：

投资没有一定的“正确”或“错误”方式，只有最适合你的方式。

有鉴于此，投资是种艺术，而非科学。

因此，我相信每个人有必要先了解自己，知道自己想要的是什么，再从中找寻最适合自己的答案。

我将这些所谓的进场前概况分成10种，这期先谈到这里，下期我们继续另外5种考量。

米兰兵法：致富6大黄金法则

许多人都很熟悉成功哲学，例如拿破仑希尔（Napoleon Hill）的17个成功原则。
但我觉得有6个基本要素可以助你成为百万富翁，我故且称之为致富6大黄金法则。
自1998年起，我举办了很多场金融座谈会，接触到许多人。
在我和这些成功人士交流和观察中，我意识到，有6个基本要素或6大黄金法则，可助你成为百万富翁。
如果你想成功，你必须掌握这6大黄金法则：
（1）想要赚取与投资更多，就必须先多多学习。
假设我拥有一架时光机，我可以把你送回去5年，甚至10年前，那你认为，你今天的生活会有何不同？或许你会报读不同的课程、追求不同的事业，甚至是和不同人结婚！
今天的你和5年或10年前的你，有何差别？虽然基本上你是同一个人，但不同的是，你现在所拥有的智慧与经验是你多年前所缺乏的。
知识 + 真实生活经验 = 智慧
如果你想让生活攀上另一个层面，无论是赚取或投资更多金钱，你首先需要提升的是智慧和技能。
我会建议你从年收入中，预留和投资最少5%在自助的书籍，或参与一些投资座谈会。
在多年以后，这5%的区别会很大。
你只需要一个好的构思正确的思想与创富蓝图，便能彻底改变你的生活。
（2）结交更多志同道合的人。
我确定你会赞同这个说法，特别是在马来西亚，你所认识的比你所知道的更为重要。在正确的时机认识“对”的人，将可改变你的一生。
在你的朋友圈中，确保你是“最不精明”和最穷的。如果其他人比你精明与富有，在他们往上爬时，也会致力拉你一把。
相反的，假设你是最精明和富裕的那个人，你就有麻烦了！其他人会设法将你拉下，或者让你放慢脚步。
（3）以最快的速度，赚取最多的钱。
依我所见，你必须选择收入具备无限潜能的领域。如果你是一名雇员，最好的部门就是可以为你的公司带来利润的“前线”，例如行销、销售、股票交易、债券、货币、原产品以及其他等等。
实际上，拥有无限收入潜能的最佳方式就是发展自己的生意。
如果你拥有无限的收入潜能，你将可承受更大的投资风险。 任何无可预期的金融挫折，可通过更精明的工作方式，轻易地就可赚回。
反之，那些收入固定的人则需要更长的时间才能弥补任何损失。
（4）竭尽所能地储蓄， 以建立投资资金
我个人是不太相信储蓄这回事，特别是当你的储蓄少得无法做任何投资时候。
虽然存钱是非常重要，特别是在医疗紧急的情况下，但我觉得更重要的是你如何为自己定位，即实际上你并不需要担心存钱，因为这是你应该做的。
且让我与你分享一个真实个案。很多年前，一名单位信托顾问曾经参加我的课程，她问我：“我的顾客是一名德士司机，他每个月只能储蓄100令吉，他应该如何投资？”
我很坦率地回答她，每个月储蓄100令吉总比没有储蓄好，但仍无法远离他的德士司机生涯。
对他最好的方法就是，把每个月所存起来的100令吉，投资在有关商业或企业领导的自我帮助书籍。
这位德士司机需要的是，将今日当德士司机变成数年后拥有一个德士车队，这才是正确的思维方式和大转变。
如果他能够办得到，他就会自动储蓄。
（5）精明地借钱，确保你的潜在回酬高过借贷成本。
比方说，你购买的产业回酬为按年8%，而你的贷款则是按年4%。根据逻辑，你应该尽量借，是吗？是的，你一定要！有了银行的金援，你会越来越富裕。
事实上，即使是现金流充裕的公司，也有贷款。例如，云顶（Genting Berhad）坐拥数十亿美元，但是还是借钱在新加坡兴建新赌场。
为什么贷款对他们来说是合理的？那是因为他们预计该项目的回报远远超过他们的借贷成本。
事实上，可以证明你有多么富有的其中一个方法便是，你有能力借贷多少。
通常，可以借贷1亿令吉的人是比只能借贷1000万令吉的人富有；同样的，后者也肯定比只能借贷100万令吉的人富裕！
因此，不要害怕贷款，但是你必须确定能够精明地贷款，供正确的用途！
（6）明智地投资
我强力推荐专注于两个强大的资产类别，即产业与股票。这已经非常足够，你也不需要去考虑其他投资了。
使用产业逐步建立一个稳固、稳定与可预期的现金流。之后，善用你的产业贷款，去进行股票投资，在短期内，以最低的风险来赚取至少20%回酬。
如果你需要更多相关资讯，欢迎你阅读我的书籍。
最终，你的投资目标必须是通过业务、租金和投资组合收入，打造被动收入。你应该把重点放在产生现金流，而不是净值！
在我认识的一些人当中，有些具有丰富的资产与净值，但是却严重缺乏现金流。
他们的产业高度负债，有时候他们需要承担负现金流的问题，甚至是没有足够的金钱作为生活开支。
简要的总结这六大黄金之道，最重要的是首三个：
（1）大量学习
（2）开拓人脉网络
（3）提高收入
紧接在后的是：
（4）储蓄
（5）借贷
（6）投资
如果你可以掌握首三个，你不需要再理会剩下那3个。如果你可以赚足够的钱，就不用关注储蓄、借贷或甚至投资。 你甚至可以将你的储蓄放在定期存款，也不用担心会受到通货膨胀的影响，因为你的每月收入是绰绰有余，足以抵消任何逆境。
然而，要做到非常出色的话，你必须在同一时间掌握所有6大黄金法则。

米兰兵法：风险vs.回酬

                      
向发展商购买房子，价格相较下可能比二手市场“便宜”，但要承担的风险却非常高。
投资者必须谨慎衡量，风险与回酬的对比和关系。
作为精明的产业投资者，特别是购屋者，你必须不断衡量风险和预测回酬，此举适用于所有类型的投资。
你的投资目标，必须是承担最少的风险，以及取得最多的潜在回酬。
商业单位搁置的风险
我的好朋友乔安妮，于1995年以30万令吉在雪邦购下一个双层店铺单位，因她预计吉隆坡国际机场（KLIA）有助带动附近的发展计划。
经过数度展延，发展商最终成功完成这计划，然而，在他们被允许申请电力和水务供应之前，却陷入破产情况。
至今，这发展已完全停止，没有人能够迁入这区。乔安妮仍支付银行贷款，但幸好的是，她和丈夫都属于高收入人士，有能力承担负面的现金流出。
他们有意在未来数年内还清贷款，以注销他们的投资。
这种情况下，乔安妮唯一的安慰是她不贪心，当时没有购买超过一个单位！
投资有租户单位
如果购买最基本的新单位，你必须花钱小装修，以及购买基本家具如灯、橱柜、厨房柜、窗帘等，好让房子适于居住，这一切都耗时和耗金钱。
至于二手单位，你可选择购买已完成且符合个人要求的单位，以便能直接迁入居住。
如果作为投资用途，可选择已拥有租户的单位；一旦这产业转至你名下，租赁合约将归于你。
你就不必为找寻合适租户、装修或购买家具问题而烦恼。
兴建期间难脱售产业
兴建期间的产业比较难脱售，因为难以寻获买家。
你可通过发展商协助找寻买家，但他们将征收销售佣金和其他成本，幸运的话，就能找到买家购买你的单位。
不过，许多发展商都不愿在兴建期间提供这方面协助，因这会将法律的文书工作复杂化。
与其他卖主竞争
产业竣工和取得钥匙之后，市场顿时多了数百个要脱售的单位。
若你计划脱售，就必须与其他卖家竞争；即使计划出租，也须与许多业主竞争。
首一两年内，这会是买家和业主的恶梦。此外，首几年内，售价和租金率会比较不稳定和波动。
流失机会和持有成本
假设你订购价值50万令吉的公寓，并支付10%或5万令吉首期。
如果你的现金有限，你便无法参与之后出现的投资机会，也就是流失了机会和金钱！
如果你计划在产业竣工后脱售，你必须考量所有成本，例如：
（a）机会成本
（b）若提早还清银行贷款，或须支付利息成本和罚款
（c）买卖协议、贷款文件和赎回贷款的律师费
（d）印花税（如果是购买有地产业）
（e）产业盈利税（如果在5年内脱售）
（f）支付给产业经纪的销售佣金
你的潜在利润，是否有将这些成本和风险加入考量？

米兰兵法：接下来，市场往哪走？

投资策略  产业周刊
  2011-11-13 13:43

走过2008年掀起的金融风暴，再到去年的大飙涨，目前再面对欧美债务危机，甚至酝酿全球衰退。

市场许多人揣测会有产业泡沫，但之后有多方反驳。

目前大家最关心的应该是：接下来，产业市场究竟会趋往哪个方向？

2009年，由于面对全球经济危机，是个经济放缓的年份；而2010年，经济则在政府推行经济振兴配套的带动下复苏。

对于一些旺区价格飙升的情况，市场的部分说法是，这是2009年需求受压所导致。

那年，发展商提供优惠配套是非常普遍的现象，即只需支付5%订金和0%利息直至一项发展计划完成为止。

同样地，各银行业提供吸引人的利率，即利息率是大约加3%或减4%。

产业价持续扬升

步入2011年，产业投资者已调整他们的投资策略。

产业价格已超越经济危机前的水平，光是2010年上半年内，巴生谷、槟城和柔佛一些旺区的有地房屋，价格就已增长了10%至30%。

国家银行发布的《2010年金融稳定与付款系统报告》，我们看到市中心和市郊部分地点的房价，已经上涨至比国家房屋价格指数高出四倍。

国行一直密切观察市场的情况，更实施了第三个房贷借贷者贷款顶限定于70%的管制政策。

然而，狡猾的产业买家却透过使用配偶或亲戚名字来申请贷款的方式，来避开这些限制。

一些买家则选择购买商务产业，因此类产业的贷款顶限是80%（而不是70%，即如果买家目前已拥有超过两项住宅产业）。

改投资商用产业

此外，商用产业的资本增值和租金回酬也比住宅产业高。因此，部分买家已经改变策略，转往投资商用产业。

利率稍涨 投资情绪续谨慎

2011年5月初，国行将隔夜政策利率（OPR）调高25基点至3%，也将法定储备率（SRR）上修至3%。

这导致银行纷纷将基本贷款利率（BLR）和基本融资利率（BFR）各提高30%至6.60%。

但部分银行仍提供扣除2%的BLR，即实际利率仍低过5%。

不过，产业投资者仍非常谨慎地看待利率稍涨的情况。

产业买家有必要根据他们的付款能力来作出购买决意，也将租金回酬预测加入考量。

如今，全新的发展计划仍持续涌入市场，尤其在巴生谷和“大吉隆坡”（Greater Kuala Lumpur）一带。

很多报告也显示，投资者仍然非常活跃，因即使产业价扬升，许多产业在推介当日便被投资者扫空。

我认为，目前要检讨管制条例对市场的影响还太早。

转向二手产业投资

问：价格不断飙涨，加上市场有许多产业将泡沫化的说法，目前投资房地产是否安全？

答：“安全”，是个很主观的词汇。我较喜欢将风险和潜能回酬作比较。过去两年内，即全球经济危机之后，价格激增30至50%是一个“一次过”的现象，而这 现象不可能在今年重新出现。今年，我们很可能重返“正常化”情况，价格每年增长5%至10%。一些供应过剩地点，或价格已增长至难以接受的水平的旺区内， 可能会有价格调整的现象。

目前，向发展商购买产业的风险似乎提高了很多，但潜能惠利却不是很显眼。我认为，这当中的风险包括：

（a）由于发展商在短时间内陆续推介新产业，许多地方已有供应过剩的现象。一旦新计划竣工后，市场需要时间来吸纳这些供应量。

（b）许多新公司，如承包商，已成为产业发展上。这是问题出现的迹象。

产业投资者有必要将焦点转向二手市场，那里仍有许多良好的产品。只要能够以较市价低5%至10%，而且这产业坐落在发展完善的地点，即拥有高需求且低未来供应量，我就会认为这是不错的购买选择。

Genting unit plans US$4b New York job

Genting Malaysia Bhd plans to invest at least US$4 billion to develop a convention and exhibition centre with hotel rooms and expand its casino in New York City, according to a statement to the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange

Genting Malaysia Bhd’s shares climbed to a one-month high on expectations its US$4 billion plan to build the biggest convention center in the U.S. may help boost visitors to its nearby casino, the first in New York City.

The convention and exhibition center will include hotel rooms and an expansion of its casino in the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, the Kuala Lumpur-based company said in a statement to the Malaysian stock exchange today. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo yesterday called for replacing the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan with the new 3.8 million-square-foot complex.

“It is a long-term planning that they do to make sure that in the future, there will be more consistent flow of business and people there,” Low Yee Huap, head of research at Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd, said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur today.

The investment will extend the Malaysian company’s reach in the U.S. after opening the New York City casino on Oct. 28 and amid plans for a US$3.8 billion casino-and-hotel complex in Miami. The company, along with its parent Genting Bhd, also owns and operates gaming resorts in the U.K., Malaysia and Singapore.

Genting Malaysia climbed 0.8 per cent to RM3.91 as of 4:01 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, set for its highest since Dec. 5.

Cuomo said in his State of the State speech in Albany, the capital, that the Jacob Javits Center is “not competitive,” adding that the proposed Genting project will eclipse Chicago’s McCormick Place. The new development will include as many as 3,000 hotel rooms, he said.

Genting Malaysia’s New York unit is in talks with the state and expects a binding agreement by the end of November, it said in the statement.

米兰兵法:向发展商买产业的弊端（上篇）

著名产业投资大师米兰多施

* 投资策略   产业周刊

2011-11-27 14:17


上一期专栏中，我分享了向发展商购买产业的好处。这一期，我们来看看，这产业购买方式，又有何坏处。

产业发展是一项高风险但有利可图的行业，因它提供20%至30%的盈利赚幅。

因此，许多专业人士和企业家纷纷进军产业发展这行业。同时，许多产业投资者（包括我！）经常梦想有朝一日也能成为发展商！

记得在1995年，我第一次参加一家上市公司的股东常年大会。

由于有意进军产业发展行业，这家衣服制造商针对在巴生谷购买一块大型土地，征求股东们批准。

当一些忠诚的长期股东询问欲让业务方向进行大转变的原因时，该公司主席的回应是，衣服行业将成为大马的一项“日落”行业。

该公司董事部是因看准产业发展能提供更高的营业额和丰裕的盈利赚幅，才决定进军这行业。

然而，1998年亚洲金融风暴之后，这家 上市公司被接管，而如今已从大马交易所除牌；因为，他们的首项产业发展计划，“赔上”了整家公司。此时受苦最多的人士，除了产业买家，也包括股东。

担心产业货不对版

买家向发展商购买产业必须承担以下风险：

1.建筑工程启动前后，发生发展商倒闭事件。

今日著名的发展商，可以是明日破产的发展商。比如，我的邻居在富都车站附近购买了3个店铺单位，惟这些产业遭搁置。至今，他已经支付了30万令吉的工程进度付款；其资金就困在这些产业上。

2.产业延期完成。

这情况下，你会根据买卖协议的条件取得现金赔偿，又或者发展商会以免除指定期限的服务和维修费，来作为赔偿？

3.次等素质和人工粗糙，而且不符合规格。

你可能发觉地板破裂和凹凸不平、容易破损的屋角、地砖不牢固等。虽然房子递交之后，仍有18个月的缺陷修复义务期，发展商会多快采取行动和修复缺陷的成果，仍拭目以待。

4.缺乏所承诺的公用设施，如公园、保安等。

大部分发展商会专注于可快速向银行收取工程进度付款的工程。其他建筑工程如公用设施、公园等的费用，只在最后才能够向银行收取。

5.对于高楼或围篱发展计划，一般上会延迟取得分层地契，或者更糟是从未获得。

只要发展商能够透过向住户收取每月维修费，他们会无意完成对买家的义务，花费申请分层地契。

6.接近竣工期的经济展望。

如果当初购买有关产业的目的，是在竣工后脱售，但恰好经济陷入不景气，你将会感到非常失望。

7.在你购买的单位附近，不清楚未来会有什么发展。

比如说，你的房子可能面向一个非法住宅区、大水沟、化粪池、高压电线、高速大道等。这一切，都不会列在产业销售小册子和建筑实物模型。

大部分买家做出投诉是，发展商没有兑现所有承诺。买家最终所取得的成品，并不如销售册子和广告所显示一般漂亮和拥有诱人的设计。

买家间接承担风险

产业发展商为了取得盈利，可能会面对以下风险：

1.以对的价格，对的时机，在对的地点，购买对的土地。
2.在开始销售活动和建筑工程启动之前，无法取得各个政府单位的相关批准。
3.基于劳工和/或原料短缺，面对工程展延和/或超资问题。
4.与融资发展计划相关的问题。
5.过度的行销开支或使用不正确的行销策略。
6.认购率很低或不理想。据了解，建筑工程只在发展商能预售指定百分比的产业单位才会启动，这百分比依土地成本而定，一般上介于30至50%。财务能力不 够雄厚的发展商，不愿冒着单位滞销的风险。为了降低亏损，他们可能选择不启动建筑工程，甚至中途搁置建筑工程，又或者透过偷工减料的方式来妥协素质问题 等。
7.如果延迟递交产业，必须根据买卖协议内的条件与规定来支付罚款给买家。
8.与附近的产业计划竞争。

米兰兵法 by 米兰多施 （著名产业投资大师）

投资策略
产业周刊
  2011-11-20 13:37

基本上，有两种方式购买产业。你可以向发展商购买尚在建筑的新单位（有些发展商有销售已完成的新单位，或有可能是未售出的单位），或者你可以从二手市场购买旧产业。

在1997年之前的“大马能”或高经济增长时代，最容易赚钱的方法便是趁产业推出市场时，向发展商订购3个单位。

当产业在2至3年后竣工时，你把其中2个单位卖出，所赚取的盈利将足以还清第三个单位的贷款。

那个时候，看见人群为了订购几个单位而排队几天，甚至是几晚，是很正常的事情，情况和1、2年前一样。就算是排队的号码也很值钱！

这就是“动机买家”（Motivated Buyers）的时代——人们都有一种“怕输”（福建话为的心态，害怕在所有单位被认购之前，无法订购到足够数量的好单位。

价格或发展商的信誉反而不是一个问题。当时的想法是以高价买，更高价卖！

选择信誉好发展商

自1997/98亚洲金融危机后，看见一些遭搁置或劣质项目，从而窥探向发展商购买产业的高风险。这些投资策略至今仍然有效。

想在今天的市场成功，你必须：

a）选择合适的产业类型，因为生活方式是当今最重要的因素。

买家所关注的东西包括摩登设计、设施，如游泳池、保安、至少2个停车位以及进出方便等等。

b）选择有信誉和记录良好的发展商，因为“发展商风险”极高。

c）选择合适的地点，即高需求以及目前和未来的供应低。

d）在合适的时机或价格购买。建议你看准购买的时机，以及避免在市场高峰期购买，以防万一当产业在2至3年竣工后，遇上经济低迷时期。理想的情况下，你应该在市场低迷或经济走出衰退时购买。

在这篇文章中，我们应该研究向发展商购买的优势。

【向发展商购产业的9大优势】

1）有机会以“廉价”购买

发展商的价格通常都是最低价。因此，在大多数情况下，你是以最低价购买，当然发展商已经为该单位作出合理定价，而且地理位置是十分优越的。

因此，重要的是要做好功课，以确保发展商的销售价格可媲美与同一地区内的其他发展商。为质量相似的项目作出价格比较的最佳方法是，根据每平方尺的价格。

2）在最短的时间内，价格快速升值

吸引许多投资者向发展商购买产业的最大优势是，价格通常在最短的时间内，最快升值。当产业在2至3年后竣工时，价格通常会增值至少10至20%，这计算了利息与持有成本。

假设你支付的首期是10至20%，这意味着在短短数年内，获得100%或更多现金回酬。

3）指定人士获得折扣

许多发展商为公务员、土著、公司职员及商业伙伴等等，提供5至10%折扣。如果你有幸获得折扣，应该考虑充分利用它，因机会不可能永远存在。

另一个可以享有折扣的方式便是，连同有兴趣的朋友、亲戚或者同事，向发展商购买。与其你们每个人各自购买1个单位，你可以组队，与发展商洽谈团购的折扣。

4）“早起的鸟儿”（EarlyBird）的优势

俗语说：“早起的鸟儿有虫吃”。如果你是一个“早鸟”，你可以选择你喜欢的单位，它可以面向一个公园、早晨的太阳、角头单位、高楼层等。通常，你还可以享有一个具吸引力的“早鸟”优惠！

许多投资者在发展商推出项目初期已作出投资，一旦后期阶段以更高的价格推出，早期阶段的价格将自动水涨船高。

5）全新单位

你可以给自己购买一个全新且富有最新现代设计与布局的产业，而不是购买一个已经20年的旧单位，需要不时进行重大维修或重新油漆。

6）保证无缺陷

根据房屋发展条例，住宅产业发展商从移交产业日期起的至少18个月内，保证产业无缺陷，如厕所泄漏、墙壁裂缝、瓷砖松脱等。
根据法律规定，发展商的律师会为此保留购价的5%。

值得注意的是，商用产业、服务式公寓以及店铺公寓并不会受到任何相关政府条规，或者任何房屋发展条例的约束。

另一方面，二手住宅产业的买家无法享受这种好处，因为他们是在“根据现状”的情况下购买。

7）具吸引力和创意的行销方案

a）100%融资。

b）免费律师费、印花税及支付费用。

c）最初几年的服务与维修费由发展商承担。

d）租金保证。

e）发展商提供赠品，如空调、卧室衣柜、厨柜以及装修厕所等。

8）最初的现金支出是最少的

在签署买卖协议时，你只是支付总数的10%。如果你申请90%贷款，在建筑期间，银行将逐步发放贷款给发展商。

一旦银行发放所有贷款，你必须开始支付利息和母金。

如果目前你的手头紧以及希望可以提高日后的收入，这或许是一个理想的财务计划。

9）对计划结婚的人有用

你可以安排结婚日期与梦想家园的竣工期在同一时期。

如果你希望产业价格在数年后有所增长，向发展商购买产业可让你以当前的价格“锁定”该产业。

Latex glove makers to bounce back

Malaysia’s largest latex glove makers, many of them world leaders, had a tough 2011 on many fronts, as most experienced lower on-year profits and margins. However, analysts say their fortunes are improving going into 2012 as the emerging threat of bird flu in China and Hong Kong may attract investor interest to these counters.

Last Saturday’s death of a man in China from bird flu or influenza H5N1 — the reported human case in the country in 18 months — has put health authorities in the region on alert although the virus does not spread from person to person. In December, Hong Kong raised the city’s bird flu alert level to “serious” and culled thousands of chickens after three birds tested positive for the H5N1 virus strain.

Back in 2009, the H1N1 pandemic led to surge in demand for gloves which led to overstocking by healthcare providers and major distributors, subsequently contributing to a challenging operating environment for glove makers in 2011.

While it is unclear how serious a threat H5N1 is at this juncture, other factors are looking up for latex glove makers.

For one, the US dollar — the currency glove-makers are paid in — have appreciated versus the ringgit from their lows of around the 2.90-levels in 2011 to about 3.18 now. TA Securities, for instance, calculated that a 1% appreciation in the greenback could work out to some 2% to 3% higher earnings for Top Glove Corp Bhd and Supermax Group Bhd.

Hon Seow Mee, an analyst with HwangDBS Vickers Research, who earlier in predicting the rout for glove makers in 2011, sees the stronger greenback boosting revenues. “Our sensitivity analysis shows that every 1% increase in US dollar versus the ringgit could lift earnings by around 5%,” Hon wrote in a note dated Dec 20.

Nonetheless, given the volatility in currency trends, she pointed out that glove makers are likely to hedge US dollar exposure,  something that could result in wide fluctuations in translation gains or losses. Whatever the case, the lower cost of latex is definitely a plus point for glove makers like Top Glove and Supermax which sell more gloves made of natural rubber than synthetic (nitrile) rubber, analysts said. Latex — which suddenly spiked from an average of RM3.30 per kg end-2009 to never-before-seen levels of RM10.60 per kg in February 2011 — accounts for 60% to 70% of production cost.

Prices had since declined by 37% to average around RM6.70 per kg in December 2011. The expected slower demand from Chinese automakers in 2012 means latex prices may continue to ease or stabilise at current levels, analysts said.

“China’s auto market has slowed down and tyres use up 70% of global natural rubber. A lower demand from the tyre industry will lead to excess capacity in the industry,” Jason Yap, an OSK Research analyst who tracks the rubber glove sector, told The Edge Financial Daily recently.




He expects latex prices to be less volatile in 2012. “As the European market is still uncertain, there will be less speculative elements on the commodity side,” Yap said, forecasting prices to stay around RM6 to RM7 per kg this year and over the longer term.

One factor to watch is how latex prices perform ahead of the low production “wintering” season between February and April, analysts said.

According to TA Research, a 1% drop in latex prices could lead to a 4% to 5% increase in net profit for Supermax and Top Glove. To be sure, actual numbers may differ given the impact of other factors like demand as well as product mix.

Nitrile currently accounts for 33% and 17% of Supermax and Top Glove’s production mix respectively, according to a recent report by TA Securities. New glove production lines are able to switch between producing nitrile and latex gloves, officials at  JComments both companies have said.
Conversely, synthetic rubber gloves make up 80% of production of Hartalega Holdings Bhd, the world’s largest nitrile glove maker, which did much better than its peers in 2011. While the price of nitrile, a byproduct of crude oil, too has declined from  its peak in mid-2011, the decline is smaller than that of latex, analysts said. Crude oil is still near US$100 (RM317) levels.

Latex prices, on the other hand, may slide further than the price of hard rubber, which is supported by the Thai-government.Thailand’s floor price of US$3 per kg for hard rubber implies a floor price of roughly RM5.70 for latex, which is 40% water, OSK’s Yap estimated.

He also sees latex glove players benefiting from the production of thinner gloves, which cost less to produce and had gained acceptance as customers searched for cheaper alternatives when latex prices spiked in 2011.

Given these factors, analysts think latex glove players have a greater chance of better growth in 2012 versus nitrile glovemakers.

TA Securities, for instance, recently wrote that “2012 could see a glut of nitrile gloves” given that manufacturers here and in China had ramped up production when demand was strong.

While a rise in nitrile prices is less of a worry, there is concern over potential competition from rivals in China, something that would put pressure on pricing and margins. According to Yap, the Chinese government is also offering rebates to its nation’s glove-makers, which allows them to undercut competitors.

Even so, analysts do not see the current leading nitrile glove player, Hartalega, faring badly in 2012.
“I don’t believe Hartalega will be significantly affected. Competition will be there but because of its high technology, it actually produces gloves targeting the high-end market, which I think Chinese [competitors] may take some time to penetrate,” said Yap.

Hartalega has 11 “buys”, one “hold” and zero “sell”, according to Bloomberg. With an RM8.44 price target, CIMB Research is  the most bullish, while RHB Research is the least with a RM6.06 valuation. Hartalega closed at RM5.84 on Dec 30.

Kossan, on the other hand, has 11 “buys” and five “holds” with target prices ranging between Nomura Research’s RM2.51and OSK’s RM5. It closed at RM3.25 on Dec 30, up 2.85% for the year.
Is consensus behind the curve on Top Glove, or have prices run ahead of fundamentals?

While Top Glove has only five analysts calling it a “buy” versus seven “hold” and 10 “sells”, its stock price had continued to appreciate to reach RM5 on Dec 30. That’s ahead of 13 of the 17 price targets available on Bloomberg.

For Supermax, OSK is the most bullish of six analysts with a “buy”, valuing it at RM5.50. Kenanga Research has the lowest price target of RM2.94, with a “hold” recommendation.

Buy Genting shares: OSK

OSK Retail Research is advising traders to buy Genting Bhd shares at the current level or buy on weakness at above RM11.06 a share.

It said the stock might eventually exceed the tough resistance between RM11.78 to RM11.98 to clinch a record high.

OSK's cut-loss point is pegged at below RM11.06 a share.

"The RM11.06 level now represents the immediate strong support.

A minor support could be found at the lower level of RM10.68 and further down, strong support is detected at RM10.24 level.

"The RM11.78 and RM11.98 levels are the remaining tough resistance to overcome," it said in a research note today.

The research firm said Genting gained 24 sen yesterday after it cracked above the RM10 and RM11.06 consolidation phase in the September-October rebound

Your 10 questions for Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai

With the volatility of both latex prices and currencies, will the profit and growth of the glove industry be sustainable, and the targeted world market share by Top Glove achievable?
In the last one year, players in the rubber glove industry were surprised by the sharp and sudden increase in the latex prices which was at its all-time high of RM10.99/kg early this year. Coupled with the unfavourable currency movements, we were hard hit. However, just like any other problems in life, after you've encountered it once, you become wiser and are more prepared in overcoming it in the future.

We have come to accept that we are in an era of intensified economic cycles and strong volatility due to uncertain global economic situation, the unpredictable weather condition and rampant natural disasters. Therefore, we have to evolve our business model and re-strategise accordingly. We have learned that while being big, it is important to remain agile by having a diversified product mix and having flexible facilities that could respond to different market demands quickly. Once the volatility is factored in, profit and growth should become sustainable. After all, demand is still robust, as glove is a necessity in the healthcare sector.

We expect to see a 30% improvement in our profit in the coming financial year due to the lower latex prices and stronger US dollar.

Given our strong and positive net cash position, this would now be an excellent opportunity to gain market share. During such tough times, the cash-rich would have the ability to hold on. We would also have the financial capability to acquire other companies. Top Glove is still expanding organically and with a potential merger and acquisition (M&A) it is likely we could achieve the targeted world market share of 30%

How did you start your company from such a small size, to what it has become today? How much capital did you spend when you first started your rubber glove business? Who is your mentor?
My mentors are some of the successful Malaysian and international business entrepreneurs.

In 1991, foreseeing a larger emphasis on healthcare, I channelled my glove manufacturing skills into entrepreneurship. My wife and I saved very hard to come up with RM180,000 to start our business.

We had to earn the trust of customers, suppliers, bankers, staff and business associates. Not many companies were willing to order from us but I was not defeated in spite of numerous rejections. Eventually, our quality, cost efficiency and competitive pricing spoke for themselves and we established our presence worldwide. It was the sheer passion for what I enjoyed doing and what I believed in that gave me the strength and determination to keep working at expanding the business.

As we progressed and grew our business, research and development initiatives were undertaken to ensure we kept up with the stringent requirements and demands from our customers and to achieve continuous quality and efficiency. We believe in quality products, always keeping our cost low and being efficient. These are arguably some of the most important criteria for a good company to stay fit regardless of the economic situation.

Having the foresight to expand capacity was also another important factor to our success. It enabled the company to capture the growth in the rubber glove industry. Top Glove's focus on being an original equipment manufacturer since the early days allowed greater economies of scale which translated to more competitive pricing. By mid-2004 we became the world's largest rubber glove manufacturer. Today, we export to approximately 1,000 customers in over 185 countries through our sales and marketing offices in Malaysia, the United States and Germany.

Looking at the achievements of Top Glove today, no doubt your employees are the best assets in making this huge success a reality. How do you motivate your staff in delivering results for the company?
Yes, you're right. Our employees are our greatest assets. Many have stayed on with the company since the early days and have grown together with the company. The long-serving management team provides continuity and stability to the business and enables the development of forward-looking strategies. These strategic initiatives are in turn executed by a highly skilled and dedicated workforce.

We recognise that each employee has different needs and different motivating factors. Therefore we try to cover all bases. At the most basic level, we ensure that our employees' contributions do not go unnoticed. We reward them accordingly based on their performance through a competitive remuneration package, promotion, bonus as well as employees shares and option scheme. We also have monthly recognition for staff that have demonstrated the desired behaviour and delivered the best results in their respective areas. We also invest in the development of our people through regular training. At Top Glove, there is no limit to a person's growth. He or she has every opportunity to become a GM, MD or even a chairman.

When employees have a strong sense of belonging, they voluntarily go the distance to deliver the results. Therefore, at Top Glove, we encourage open communication and feedback from employees at all levels. We are like a big family that shares and learns from each other. Besides that, we are also committed to their health and safety. We monitor their body mass index (BMI) and strongly discourage smoking. In fact, it is a policy that we do not hire smokers. Top Glove has also employed two corporate nutritionists to design the company's cafeteria menu and counsel our employees on suitable diets for individuals. In addition, Top Glove offers its employees subsidised sports facilities to encourage them to exercise.

Besides rubber gloves , what do you or Top Glove plan to venture into and how can Malaysia be ahead or remain competitive in the making of rubber products?
Top Glove will focus on doing what it is good at. We currently have 20 glove factories in Malaysia, Thailand and China manufacturing more than 10 types of rubber gloves which include, among others, examination, surgical, household, cleanroom and industrial gloves. In addition we have moved upstream several years back to set up two latex concentrate factories for better quality control and to ensure more consistent supply.

In the long run, we plan to further integrate upstream into rubber plantation to minimise the fluctuation of rubber price impact on our earnings; as well as to balance our upstream and downstream activities and investment performance. Top Glove's demand from its rubber glove production is big enough to justify having its own plantation to supply its own latex needs. This project is for the long term. We have to start today; or else we would not ever have rubber plantations. These plans were already in the pipeline regardless of the current challenges.

In order for Malaysia to remain competitive in the making of rubber products, the rubber products industry would need to diversify further, emphasising on high value-added and high technology rubber products.

The Government also ought to step up production of rubber to ensure that the local producers can continue to secure latex at a competitive price. In addition, to provide support in the form of technical assistance in research and development, and in promoting our products in the international market through tradeshows and educational campaigns on the benefits of rubber-based products.
What is the one advice you would give to entrepreneurs who are struggling to build their business? What are some of the guiding points you would ask them to be mindful of?
Success is a journey and not a destination. It does not come easy at all. Hardwork is one of the most important elements. There is no short cut around hardwork. But hardwork alone is not sufficient, we also need to work smart and have good teamwork.

We must also commit to our dream and be persistent in the face of challenges. Never give up for if you give up the first time you fail, you will only end in failure. Just keep looking ahead, stay calm and be focused, continue doing what you are best at until you succeed. In time, excellent results will be yours. Always think positive and stay fit physically and mentally.

The important thing is profitability, there is no point being large but losing money. We are guided by the investment direction of “earn two healthy dollars and spend one efficient dollar”. What it means is that we should only spend RM1 for every RM2 earned and ensure that we earn it in a healthy manner. It is important that every company has a business direction. And always plan ahead to capture the growth in the market by setting medium and long-term targets.

Underlying all these, the entrepreneur needs to be principled and never compromise his integrity be honest and transparent.

I read that you are very health conscious. Are you a vegetarian, and what does your diet consist of? What sort of exercise do you still do?
Health is very important. We need to have a healthy body and a healthy mind in order to perform at our best and make the best decisions. I try to ensure that I eat healthily, work out often and have enough rest. Only by taking care of myself am I able to do well and compete in the intense global market. My wife and son are vegetarians but I am not. I just prefer to eat more vegetables. Exercising is part of my work schedule.

I exercise four days a week, which consist of two days of badminton and two days of evening golf. At times I will also go for a round of table tennis.

Are you a moderate or a liberal person? What are some of the life principles that you truly hold on to?
I don't think there is one word that can adequately describe a person. I can be moderate in my views on some matters and liberal on others. In my life, I have always adhered to a few simple guiding principles:

i) To always add positive values to my family, my company and the community

ii) To earn money ethically, compete in a healthy manner and to take care of society

iii) To always think positive, stay healthy and be honest

What do you want from life?
I am very driven to succeed. And success means staying healthy and doing well in all aspects of my life, including my family and my company and being able to contribute to the society.

You are one of Malaysia's most well liked corporate figures because of your humility and honest ways. Is this due to your humble background or was it something you learnt on your own through religion or a mentor?
Thank you for the compliment. To me, respect has got to be earned. It is not given nor can it be demanded. My humble background, education, Buddhist teachings and some life philosophies played a big part in how I live my life. Since young, I was also taught by my father to have zi ai or self-respect and self-discipline. We need to be mindful not to do anything to harm ourselves and we need to always take good care of ourselves. Therefore, I do not believe in behaving unethically for short-term gain but which in the long run may burn myself and destroy my self-worth. Likewise, being humble and respectful of others is also respecting myself.

As you approach the second half of your life, what is it that you hope to achieve for yourself and your company?
I have always enjoyed working and keeping myself busy. I aim to stay healthy and live until 100 years old and it is my target to remain active till then. I hope Top Glove will be even bigger and stronger by the time I hand over the reins.