MEXICO CITY: Eighty-one people have so far died of swine flu in Mexico this year, while at least 3,522 have been infected with the virus, health officials said.
From Jan 1 till Feb 9, there have been 3,882 confirmed flu cases, the health secretariat said in a statement.
Three seasonal viruses are currently active in Mexico -- AH1N1, AH3N2 and influenza B. The AH1N1 -- or swine flu -- has been the predominant one, with 91 per cent of the infections.
The AH1N1 virus broke out in Mexico in March-April 2009. By June 2010, around 1,300 deaths had occurred and more than 70,000 people had contracted the disease.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
台湾演艺圈不乏地产专家:拥房产20户 价值超5亿
秦伟拥有多栋房地产，手中的一大迭地契，展示他努力的成绩。图片来源：联合报中新网12月6日电 据台湾《联合报》报道，台湾帝宝豪宅法拍捧出身价六十亿元(新台币，下同)的房市名人“刘妈妈”，演艺圈也有不少超懂投资的地产专家，包括曾遭火劫的秦伟。秦伟靠着自创购屋五原则，默默经营，目前手上竟拥有二十户房产，号称价值超过五亿元。
演艺圈不少人投资房地产，例如人称“小哥”的长青歌王费玉清，理财哲学就是“以买房地产来储蓄”，并曾有媒体报道他以三亿元现金买下台北东区黄金店面。
秦伟父亲是警官，母亲是教官，竟然能积攒这么多房地产，都是靠自己的眼光与打拼。十八年前他用存款四百万元，在台北市忠孝东路买进人生第一栋房子；捷运开通后卖出，转手就赚进两百七十万元，让他初尝房产投资甜头，开始乐此不疲。
他说，有次到桃园南坎做工地秀，业者要砍他主持费，他反而说，不要主持费了，要拿这钱当买套房的头期款。业者说不行，头款这样太低。“你可以告诉客户，这房子有艺人买，我免费帮你们打知名度。”
建商采纳他的方案，以每坪十万元把房子卖给他。一个月后，转手以每坪二十万脱手。秦伟说：“几年经验下来，我理出五个买房原则：不买预售屋、要看风水、买价低于市价、当做明天就要卖掉、进屋时感觉要舒服等。”目前他手上的房子大多十五至二十坪大小，分布在台北县市各点。
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
亞洲疫情 流感禽流感持續發燒
疾病管制局副局長周志浩今天公布國際最新疫情，亞洲以B型流行性感冒為主，流行區域包括日本、中國大陸與香港，亞洲另有禽流感疫情。
疾病管制局國際疫情監測資料顯示，鄰國日本流感疫情明顯增加，其他國際疫情還包括非洲出現黃熱病、東南亞與亞洲都有流感與禽流感、歐洲出現退伍軍人病等疫情，提醒出國民眾出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染。
流感病例以亞洲最多，中國大陸1月第3週整體流感活動正上升，以B型流感的Victoria株為主；香港流感病例也持續增加，以B型為主，今年共有7人因流感死亡；日本流感也持續發燒，每週就診人數約173萬人，逾7000所學校停課。
歐洲的西班牙傳出感染退伍軍人病，西班牙新增2名英國籍旅客感染退伍軍人病，其中1人已死亡，今年至今共有4名西班牙人及11名英國藉旅客感染，其中3名英國籍病例死亡。
非洲疫情部分，迦納（Republic of Ghana）中西部3區發生黃熱病，共有3例確診，其中2例死亡；喀麥隆（Republic of Cameroon）從去年10月起，北部地區共通報23例黃熱病，其中7例死，至少13例確診。
另外，德國也確診1例非洲錐蟲症（Africantrypanosomiasis）境外移入病例，病患曾到肯亞（Republic of Kenya）蒙巴薩（Mombasa）旅遊區遊覽及非洲大草原（Masai Mara）自然保護區露營。
疾管局表示，非洲錐蟲症是經由采采蠅（Tsetsefly）叮咬感染的寄生蟲病，初期症狀是發燒、出疹，會引起腦膜腦炎，嚴重者神智下降，甚至死亡，又稱非洲昏睡症。肯亞最近一例非洲錐蟲症是在11年前發生。
周志浩表示，H5N1高病原禽流感疫情分別在香港與越南都傳出疫情，香港至今共有5起疫情，1月底發生2起，越南也發生3起疫情；至今全球共有7國通報17起疫情。
周志浩提醒出國民眾，出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染，出門在外注意飲食飲水衛生，勤洗手，穿著長袖衣褲並提高警覺，返國時若發生不適，應儘速就醫，並告知旅遊史。
疾病管制局國際疫情監測資料顯示，鄰國日本流感疫情明顯增加，其他國際疫情還包括非洲出現黃熱病、東南亞與亞洲都有流感與禽流感、歐洲出現退伍軍人病等疫情，提醒出國民眾出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染。
流感病例以亞洲最多，中國大陸1月第3週整體流感活動正上升，以B型流感的Victoria株為主；香港流感病例也持續增加，以B型為主，今年共有7人因流感死亡；日本流感也持續發燒，每週就診人數約173萬人，逾7000所學校停課。
歐洲的西班牙傳出感染退伍軍人病，西班牙新增2名英國籍旅客感染退伍軍人病，其中1人已死亡，今年至今共有4名西班牙人及11名英國藉旅客感染，其中3名英國籍病例死亡。
非洲疫情部分，迦納（Republic of Ghana）中西部3區發生黃熱病，共有3例確診，其中2例死亡；喀麥隆（Republic of Cameroon）從去年10月起，北部地區共通報23例黃熱病，其中7例死，至少13例確診。
另外，德國也確診1例非洲錐蟲症（Africantrypanosomiasis）境外移入病例，病患曾到肯亞（Republic of Kenya）蒙巴薩（Mombasa）旅遊區遊覽及非洲大草原（Masai Mara）自然保護區露營。
疾管局表示，非洲錐蟲症是經由采采蠅（Tsetsefly）叮咬感染的寄生蟲病，初期症狀是發燒、出疹，會引起腦膜腦炎，嚴重者神智下降，甚至死亡，又稱非洲昏睡症。肯亞最近一例非洲錐蟲症是在11年前發生。
周志浩表示，H5N1高病原禽流感疫情分別在香港與越南都傳出疫情，香港至今共有5起疫情，1月底發生2起，越南也發生3起疫情；至今全球共有7國通報17起疫情。
周志浩提醒出國民眾，出國前應先查詢當地流行病資訊，並預先做好自我保護，避免感染，出門在外注意飲食飲水衛生，勤洗手，穿著長袖衣褲並提高警覺，返國時若發生不適，應儘速就醫，並告知旅遊史。
乳胶价趋跌迎光明 手套股财测目标价上调
吉隆坡6日讯）对手套领域盈利前景影响巨大的乳胶价格，虽然目前呈回弹走势，但分析员认为此景不长，预期手套业者将迎来光明前景，而维持手套领域“中和”评级，并上调数家手套业者的盈利预测和目标价。
预测相符顶级手套
拉昔胡申研究分析员表示，乳胶价格目前从今年1月10日的每公斤6.30令吉低位，反弹至7.50令吉的水平，相信是由橡胶生产国政府的扶持价格措施所致。
“但我们认为此景不长。在全球橡胶需求受经济疲弱影响持续走软，及一旦落叶季节结束预期将会腾出更多供应的情况下，乳胶价格将在未来数月进一步放缓，至每公斤7.00令吉的价位。”
由于早前乳胶价格放缓和汇率利于手套业者，对此作出两大关键发展的新假设之后，分析员已在上个月为顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）上调评级，从“低于大市”至“跟随大市”。
随着上述因素已有所改变，分析员也对其他手套业者作出与顶级手套相符的假设（参阅下表）。
因此，高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）和稳大（Adventa，7191，主板工业产品股）2011至2013财年的净利预测，也分别上调有9.6%至20.8%，及5.9%至7.6%的幅度。
贺特佳（Harta，5168，主板工业产品股）则在调整更高的美元兑令吉汇率后，2012至2014财年盈利预测的上修幅度较小，介于3.4%至9.1%。
手套领域中和评级
目标价预测方面，高产尼品工业、稳大和贺特佳的调整，分别从2.71令吉、1.67令吉和6.06令吉，上调至3.70令吉、1.79令吉和7.19令吉。
上述4家手套业者（加上顶级手套）的评级皆维持在“跟随大市”，而整个手套领域则不变于“中和”评级。
预测相符顶级手套
拉昔胡申研究分析员表示，乳胶价格目前从今年1月10日的每公斤6.30令吉低位，反弹至7.50令吉的水平，相信是由橡胶生产国政府的扶持价格措施所致。
“但我们认为此景不长。在全球橡胶需求受经济疲弱影响持续走软，及一旦落叶季节结束预期将会腾出更多供应的情况下，乳胶价格将在未来数月进一步放缓，至每公斤7.00令吉的价位。”
由于早前乳胶价格放缓和汇率利于手套业者，对此作出两大关键发展的新假设之后，分析员已在上个月为顶级手套（TopGlov，7113，主板工业产品股）上调评级，从“低于大市”至“跟随大市”。
随着上述因素已有所改变，分析员也对其他手套业者作出与顶级手套相符的假设（参阅下表）。
因此，高产尼品工业（Kossan，7153，主板工业产品股）和稳大（Adventa，7191，主板工业产品股）2011至2013财年的净利预测，也分别上调有9.6%至20.8%，及5.9%至7.6%的幅度。
贺特佳（Harta，5168，主板工业产品股）则在调整更高的美元兑令吉汇率后，2012至2014财年盈利预测的上修幅度较小，介于3.4%至9.1%。
手套领域中和评级
目标价预测方面，高产尼品工业、稳大和贺特佳的调整，分别从2.71令吉、1.67令吉和6.06令吉，上调至3.70令吉、1.79令吉和7.19令吉。
上述4家手套业者（加上顶级手套）的评级皆维持在“跟随大市”，而整个手套领域则不变于“中和”评级。
Friday, February 3, 2012
馬新港各自精彩‧雲頂區域博彩首選
雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）在新加坡、大馬和香港3地業務各有各精彩，分析員預見獅城業務將在下半年度假村全面竣工轉強，而國內業務強勁將為美國業務擴張帶來支撐，加上估值低於區域同儕，名列區域博彩股投資首選。
黃氏唯高達研究近期造訪雲頂新加坡發現，基於等候審批，聖淘沙名勝世界為數620架新電子賭桌、Equarius酒店和20間沙灘度假村計劃推介計劃從2011年第四季展延至2012年首季，而酒店房間也將在第二季全面營運後逐步釋出。
“不過，礙於錯過農曆新年旺季，可能導致聖淘沙名勝世界成長放緩，但我們相信第四季貴賓（VIP）市佔率可能增加，因濱海灣金沙（Marina Bay Sands）對信貸和泥碼（Rolling Chip）出現雙位數下跌感到憂慮。”
此外，針對貴賓客群打造的聖淘沙名勝世界西區（West Zone）整體工程進度上軌，預計隨著海洋生物公園和Equarius水上樂園預計在2012年中推介，下半年將增加10%預備空間來滿足市場旅遊需求。
獅城下半年業務加強
黃氏唯高達認為，儘管雲頂新加坡管理層對信貸擴大感到憂慮，但預見第四季撥備不會出現暴增，相信下半年業務表現將隨西區景區開業趨強。
“賺益雖可能受西區開業前開銷影響，仍將企於45%至50%水平。”
隨著變形金鋼電動遊戲推介，聖淘沙名勝世界第四季旅客人數強經增長，而農曆新年首週賭場也人潮洶湧，預計農曆新年首兩天共接待超過12萬5千名訪客，其中環球影城旅客數量暴增，酒店也宣告客滿，未來預定更排至2月杪。
大馬業務復甦
黃氏唯高達指出，雲頂新加坡常年營運現金流達13億美元，淨現金企於1億8千400萬美元，現積極放眼投資聖淘沙鄰近酒店和綜合度假村執照（若日本開放賭業，將是關鍵市場）等機會，但礙於債務負擔，最快將在2013年方有望派息。
除造訪雲頂新加坡，黃氏唯高達也在大年初四拜訪雲頂名勝世界，發現賭場人頭竄動、酒店和停車場也全面爆滿，顯示旅客量隨雲頂大馬（GENM，4715，主板貿服組）專注會員和重新整修產業後出現復甦。
紐約業務料售附加股融資
“雲頂大馬在美國邁亞米和紐約名勝世界的擴充計劃到位，但紐約業務增設賭桌和邁亞米賭場執照申請仍等候有關當局批准，並可能透過發售附加股進行融資。”
黃氏唯高達認為，雲頂大馬現手握4億1千萬美元淨現金，加上常年4億美元現金流，派息計劃將不會受到影響。
“以雲頂大馬營運紀錄和睿智管理模式來看，淨負債不會超過50%門檻，而最低投資報酬率（ROI）目標為15%。”
紐約名勝世界自2011年10月杪開業以來，已為雲頂大馬入賬1億2千400萬美元，視頻彩票終端設備（VLT）平均每日淨贏322美元，高於全年目標的300美元和紐約州博彩平均253美元水平，預計貢獻集團2012財政年16%盈利。
菲營運盈利料破2億美元
至於馬尼拉名勝世界方面，黃氏唯高達指出，隨著旅客人數從2010年首季的6千人增至現有的1萬8千至2萬人，預計2011財政年營運盈利（EBITDA）將突破2億美元，而2012財政年更有望在貴賓環節表升、新電子賭桌和新發展計劃開跑提振下，進一步成長50%。
“菲律賓賭業受區域競爭等影響不大，加上17%有效稅率利好，以及低廉雇員成本，將為碼傭（Junket Commission）提供更大的上漲空間。”
不過，黃氏唯高達認為，隨著Belle機構和Bloomsbury馬尼拉灣綜合度假村將在2012/13下半年開業，市場競爭將趨向激烈。
“但馬尼拉名勝世界可善用策略地點和母公司在亞洲長期營運的歷史優勢相抗衡，而限制賭桌和角子機數量新措施將展延新賭場開業，強化其壟斷局面。”
新郵輪運抵強化成長
挪威郵輪IPO或延續
另一方面，雲頂香港旗下50%子公司——-挪威郵輪有限公司（NCL）首次公開售股計劃（IPO）因市況不明朗展延，但黃氏唯高達預見隨著2艘新船艦運抵，上市計劃延續可能性將大大增加，短期需求金錢支援可能性不高。
“自2011財政年第二季轉虧為盈後，挪威郵輪盈利隨高淨回酬和成本緊縮持續改善，而新郵輪運抵將強化中期盈利成長前景。”
黃氏唯高達指出，雲頂新加坡現企業價值收益比（EV／EBITDA）僅9倍，較澳門同儕的13倍為低，與雲頂名列區域投資首選，而雲頂香港企業價值收益比為7.5倍，估值相對誘人，更是區域估值最便宜的博彩股。（星洲日報／財經）
黃氏唯高達研究近期造訪雲頂新加坡發現，基於等候審批，聖淘沙名勝世界為數620架新電子賭桌、Equarius酒店和20間沙灘度假村計劃推介計劃從2011年第四季展延至2012年首季，而酒店房間也將在第二季全面營運後逐步釋出。
“不過，礙於錯過農曆新年旺季，可能導致聖淘沙名勝世界成長放緩，但我們相信第四季貴賓（VIP）市佔率可能增加，因濱海灣金沙（Marina Bay Sands）對信貸和泥碼（Rolling Chip）出現雙位數下跌感到憂慮。”
此外，針對貴賓客群打造的聖淘沙名勝世界西區（West Zone）整體工程進度上軌，預計隨著海洋生物公園和Equarius水上樂園預計在2012年中推介，下半年將增加10%預備空間來滿足市場旅遊需求。
獅城下半年業務加強
黃氏唯高達認為，儘管雲頂新加坡管理層對信貸擴大感到憂慮，但預見第四季撥備不會出現暴增，相信下半年業務表現將隨西區景區開業趨強。
“賺益雖可能受西區開業前開銷影響，仍將企於45%至50%水平。”
隨著變形金鋼電動遊戲推介，聖淘沙名勝世界第四季旅客人數強經增長，而農曆新年首週賭場也人潮洶湧，預計農曆新年首兩天共接待超過12萬5千名訪客，其中環球影城旅客數量暴增，酒店也宣告客滿，未來預定更排至2月杪。
大馬業務復甦
黃氏唯高達指出，雲頂新加坡常年營運現金流達13億美元，淨現金企於1億8千400萬美元，現積極放眼投資聖淘沙鄰近酒店和綜合度假村執照（若日本開放賭業，將是關鍵市場）等機會，但礙於債務負擔，最快將在2013年方有望派息。
除造訪雲頂新加坡，黃氏唯高達也在大年初四拜訪雲頂名勝世界，發現賭場人頭竄動、酒店和停車場也全面爆滿，顯示旅客量隨雲頂大馬（GENM，4715，主板貿服組）專注會員和重新整修產業後出現復甦。
紐約業務料售附加股融資
“雲頂大馬在美國邁亞米和紐約名勝世界的擴充計劃到位，但紐約業務增設賭桌和邁亞米賭場執照申請仍等候有關當局批准，並可能透過發售附加股進行融資。”
黃氏唯高達認為，雲頂大馬現手握4億1千萬美元淨現金，加上常年4億美元現金流，派息計劃將不會受到影響。
“以雲頂大馬營運紀錄和睿智管理模式來看，淨負債不會超過50%門檻，而最低投資報酬率（ROI）目標為15%。”
紐約名勝世界自2011年10月杪開業以來，已為雲頂大馬入賬1億2千400萬美元，視頻彩票終端設備（VLT）平均每日淨贏322美元，高於全年目標的300美元和紐約州博彩平均253美元水平，預計貢獻集團2012財政年16%盈利。
菲營運盈利料破2億美元
至於馬尼拉名勝世界方面，黃氏唯高達指出，隨著旅客人數從2010年首季的6千人增至現有的1萬8千至2萬人，預計2011財政年營運盈利（EBITDA）將突破2億美元，而2012財政年更有望在貴賓環節表升、新電子賭桌和新發展計劃開跑提振下，進一步成長50%。
“菲律賓賭業受區域競爭等影響不大，加上17%有效稅率利好，以及低廉雇員成本，將為碼傭（Junket Commission）提供更大的上漲空間。”
不過，黃氏唯高達認為，隨著Belle機構和Bloomsbury馬尼拉灣綜合度假村將在2012/13下半年開業，市場競爭將趨向激烈。
“但馬尼拉名勝世界可善用策略地點和母公司在亞洲長期營運的歷史優勢相抗衡，而限制賭桌和角子機數量新措施將展延新賭場開業，強化其壟斷局面。”
新郵輪運抵強化成長
挪威郵輪IPO或延續
另一方面，雲頂香港旗下50%子公司——-挪威郵輪有限公司（NCL）首次公開售股計劃（IPO）因市況不明朗展延，但黃氏唯高達預見隨著2艘新船艦運抵，上市計劃延續可能性將大大增加，短期需求金錢支援可能性不高。
“自2011財政年第二季轉虧為盈後，挪威郵輪盈利隨高淨回酬和成本緊縮持續改善，而新郵輪運抵將強化中期盈利成長前景。”
黃氏唯高達指出，雲頂新加坡現企業價值收益比（EV／EBITDA）僅9倍，較澳門同儕的13倍為低，與雲頂名列區域投資首選，而雲頂香港企業價值收益比為7.5倍，估值相對誘人，更是區域估值最便宜的博彩股。（星洲日報／財經）
Thursday, February 2, 2012
OSK Research retained its Overweight rating on the rubber gloves sector
OSK Research retained its Overweight rating on the rubber gloves sector with its top pick being Supermax with a target price of RM2.75.
As at 4.55pm, the Supermax share price was unchanged at RM2.14.
In its research report, OSK Research said the high rating on the company was premised on its attractive valuation and the fact that it operated in a recession-resilient industry.
It also said that there had been isolated cases of bird flu in Asia and that although it has not reached alarming levels, healthcare MNCs may prepare themselves by gradually stocking up rubber gloves to avoid buying them at "cut throat" price should there be a pandemic break out.
It said risks included further artificial support of rubber prices by the Indonesian and Malaysian governments, and a rising Ringgit.
It expects latex price to stay above RM7 in the shorter term.
"This is due to the uplift in sentiment for the commodity created by the Thai Government," OSK Research said.
Last week, the media reported that the Thai Cabinet had approved a plan to increase the price of locally-grown natural rubber to THB120 (RM11.84)/kg.
This is done through the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives offering soft loans of THB5bn to local agricultural institutes and another THB10bn soft loan to the Rubber Estate Organization, both at zero per cent interest to help them purchase natural rubber from local rubber farmers.
The main reasons given for the intervention include the poor rubber prices arising from the global economic slowdown; the flooding crisis in Thailand which had temporarily suspended its production of automobiles and parts, and slower automotive growth in China.
China also slowed down its purchase of Thai natural rubber and instead had switched to the cheaper Indonesian rubber.
"In our view, unless the Thai Government continues to support the price of rubber in the longer run, the price would still be ultimately decided by the forces of demand and supply," OSK Research said.
As at 4.55pm, the Supermax share price was unchanged at RM2.14.
In its research report, OSK Research said the high rating on the company was premised on its attractive valuation and the fact that it operated in a recession-resilient industry.
It also said that there had been isolated cases of bird flu in Asia and that although it has not reached alarming levels, healthcare MNCs may prepare themselves by gradually stocking up rubber gloves to avoid buying them at "cut throat" price should there be a pandemic break out.
It said risks included further artificial support of rubber prices by the Indonesian and Malaysian governments, and a rising Ringgit.
It expects latex price to stay above RM7 in the shorter term.
"This is due to the uplift in sentiment for the commodity created by the Thai Government," OSK Research said.
Last week, the media reported that the Thai Cabinet had approved a plan to increase the price of locally-grown natural rubber to THB120 (RM11.84)/kg.
This is done through the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives offering soft loans of THB5bn to local agricultural institutes and another THB10bn soft loan to the Rubber Estate Organization, both at zero per cent interest to help them purchase natural rubber from local rubber farmers.
The main reasons given for the intervention include the poor rubber prices arising from the global economic slowdown; the flooding crisis in Thailand which had temporarily suspended its production of automobiles and parts, and slower automotive growth in China.
China also slowed down its purchase of Thai natural rubber and instead had switched to the cheaper Indonesian rubber.
"In our view, unless the Thai Government continues to support the price of rubber in the longer run, the price would still be ultimately decided by the forces of demand and supply," OSK Research said.
Vietnam Reports 2nd Bird Flu Death In A Month
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — A Vietnamese official on Thursday confirmed the country's second human death from bird flu in less than a month, after it went nearly two years with no reported fatalities.
Test results confirm that a 26-year-old woman died of the disease Jan. 28 after being hospitalized in southern Soc Trang province, said Truong Hoai Phong, director of the provincial health department.
The woman had recently given birth in another hospital, but her infant son tested negative for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, Phong said.
Phong said the woman had slaughtered and eaten dead chickens her family raised. He said dead and sick poultry were reported in the woman's neighborhood.
Phong said the woman's house has been disinfected and samples from poultry and people who were in contact with the woman were being tested.
The death came about two weeks after an 18-year-old duck farm worker died of the virus in another province in southern Vietnam.
The virus rarely infects humans and usually only those who come in direct contact with dead poultry, but experts fear it will mutate into a new form that passes easily from person to person.
The World Health Organization says that as of Jan. 24, there have been 344 human deaths from 583 confirmed bird flu cases around the world since 2003. About 60 of those deaths occurred in Vietnam.
Test results confirm that a 26-year-old woman died of the disease Jan. 28 after being hospitalized in southern Soc Trang province, said Truong Hoai Phong, director of the provincial health department.
The woman had recently given birth in another hospital, but her infant son tested negative for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, Phong said.
Phong said the woman had slaughtered and eaten dead chickens her family raised. He said dead and sick poultry were reported in the woman's neighborhood.
Phong said the woman's house has been disinfected and samples from poultry and people who were in contact with the woman were being tested.
The death came about two weeks after an 18-year-old duck farm worker died of the virus in another province in southern Vietnam.
The virus rarely infects humans and usually only those who come in direct contact with dead poultry, but experts fear it will mutate into a new form that passes easily from person to person.
The World Health Organization says that as of Jan. 24, there have been 344 human deaths from 583 confirmed bird flu cases around the world since 2003. About 60 of those deaths occurred in Vietnam.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Positive outlook for rubber glove sector, says analyst
KUCHING: The rubber glove sector has a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters as earnings recovery is believed to be at an early-cycle and bound to gain momentum on the back of sustained margin revival.
In a sector update, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) analyst Low Soo Fang opined, “We reckon glove manufacturers are poised to reap higher margins from time-lag induced imperfect price adjustments from lower input costs due to easing latex price and the strengthening greenback against the ringgit exchange rate.
“As it is, quarterly earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of glove manufacturers are still two to four percentage points below normalised levels, implying upside potential.
“We expect higher margins to kick-in over the next few quarters as cheaper latex costs are fully reflected in average selling prices (ASPs),” she stated.
Despite a sharp drop of over 40 per cent in latex price from an all-time high of RM10.60 per kilogramme (kg), Low saw a further easing in latex prices as imminent due to a worse-than-anticipated rubber glut and weakening demand.
This would extend support for a sustained improvement in margins for glove makers as it is the single biggest cost determinant for rubber glove manufacturers, constituting up to 56 to 62 per cent of total production costs.
Low gathered that China’s stockpile of natural rubber (NR) had been on a progressive rise since August 2011, leading to an estimated surplus of 365,600 tonnes as at end-December 2011.
Even though global rubber supply for this year was forecasted to rise by only half of 2011’s additional production of 610,000 tonnes, this would inevitably exert further downward pressure on latex prices going forward.
China’s dominance in the global automobile industry (with a 23 per cent market share) was expected to grow at a slower rate this year, in tandem with the country’s slower economic growth outlook.
The country’s vehicle sales grew a mere three per cent last year, compared with a robust 32 per cent in 2010. As the world’s automobile industry consumes about 70 per cent of global NR output, the sluggish outlook for auto sales this year would affect NR demand negatively.
With regards to glove makers’ production mix, Low commented, “In our view, the structural shift from natural rubber (NR) to nitrile gloves will continue alongside industry trends as consumers typically tend to migrate upwards along with rising disposable income.
“However, the rate of switching should become less drastic now, given softening latex price. Most encouragingly, prices of NR gloves are currently at some seven to 10 per cent discount to nitrile variants.
“NR gloves were sold at an estimated 12 per cent to13 per cent premium to nitrile gloves in 2011. The reversal in ASPs resulting in a favourable price differential should thus help NR gloves claw back some lost market share,” she stated.
The analyst raised AmResearch’s earnings forecasts by 35 to 48 per cent for Top Glove Corporation Bhd (Top Glove) and two to 10 per cent for Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (Kossan).
She also imputed in higher utilisation rates, latex price forecast of RM5.50 to RM6 per kg as well as AmResearch’s latest in-house foreign exchange rate (US$1 = RM3.10) for both Top Glove and Kossan.
Choosing Top Glove as the top pick for the sector as the group was a prime beneficiary of easing latex prices, she pegged a fair value at RM6.15 per share (from RM3.10 per share) based on a higher fair price earnings (PE) of 19 times revised financial year 2012 (FY13) forecasted earnings.
With over 78 per cent of total production (37 billion pieces per annum) in NR gloves, Top Glove was regarded as the ‘purest’ and largest NR glove manufacturer. Based on past trends, the stock had seen an upward PE re-rating of eight to12 times during previous periods of declining latex prices.
Low also bumped up Kossan’s fair value to RM4.31 per share (from RM3.38 per share previously) based on a higher fair PE of 12.5 times revised FY12 forecasted earnings.
Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/01/20/positive-outlook-for-rubber-glove-sector-says-analyst/#ixzz1kif1Z7qS
In a sector update, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) analyst Low Soo Fang opined, “We reckon glove manufacturers are poised to reap higher margins from time-lag induced imperfect price adjustments from lower input costs due to easing latex price and the strengthening greenback against the ringgit exchange rate.
“As it is, quarterly earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of glove manufacturers are still two to four percentage points below normalised levels, implying upside potential.
“We expect higher margins to kick-in over the next few quarters as cheaper latex costs are fully reflected in average selling prices (ASPs),” she stated.
Despite a sharp drop of over 40 per cent in latex price from an all-time high of RM10.60 per kilogramme (kg), Low saw a further easing in latex prices as imminent due to a worse-than-anticipated rubber glut and weakening demand.
This would extend support for a sustained improvement in margins for glove makers as it is the single biggest cost determinant for rubber glove manufacturers, constituting up to 56 to 62 per cent of total production costs.
Low gathered that China’s stockpile of natural rubber (NR) had been on a progressive rise since August 2011, leading to an estimated surplus of 365,600 tonnes as at end-December 2011.
Even though global rubber supply for this year was forecasted to rise by only half of 2011’s additional production of 610,000 tonnes, this would inevitably exert further downward pressure on latex prices going forward.
China’s dominance in the global automobile industry (with a 23 per cent market share) was expected to grow at a slower rate this year, in tandem with the country’s slower economic growth outlook.
The country’s vehicle sales grew a mere three per cent last year, compared with a robust 32 per cent in 2010. As the world’s automobile industry consumes about 70 per cent of global NR output, the sluggish outlook for auto sales this year would affect NR demand negatively.
With regards to glove makers’ production mix, Low commented, “In our view, the structural shift from natural rubber (NR) to nitrile gloves will continue alongside industry trends as consumers typically tend to migrate upwards along with rising disposable income.
“However, the rate of switching should become less drastic now, given softening latex price. Most encouragingly, prices of NR gloves are currently at some seven to 10 per cent discount to nitrile variants.
“NR gloves were sold at an estimated 12 per cent to13 per cent premium to nitrile gloves in 2011. The reversal in ASPs resulting in a favourable price differential should thus help NR gloves claw back some lost market share,” she stated.
The analyst raised AmResearch’s earnings forecasts by 35 to 48 per cent for Top Glove Corporation Bhd (Top Glove) and two to 10 per cent for Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (Kossan).
She also imputed in higher utilisation rates, latex price forecast of RM5.50 to RM6 per kg as well as AmResearch’s latest in-house foreign exchange rate (US$1 = RM3.10) for both Top Glove and Kossan.
Choosing Top Glove as the top pick for the sector as the group was a prime beneficiary of easing latex prices, she pegged a fair value at RM6.15 per share (from RM3.10 per share) based on a higher fair price earnings (PE) of 19 times revised financial year 2012 (FY13) forecasted earnings.
With over 78 per cent of total production (37 billion pieces per annum) in NR gloves, Top Glove was regarded as the ‘purest’ and largest NR glove manufacturer. Based on past trends, the stock had seen an upward PE re-rating of eight to12 times during previous periods of declining latex prices.
Low also bumped up Kossan’s fair value to RM4.31 per share (from RM3.38 per share previously) based on a higher fair PE of 12.5 times revised FY12 forecasted earnings.
Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/01/20/positive-outlook-for-rubber-glove-sector-says-analyst/#ixzz1kif1Z7qS
Friday, January 27, 2012
Indonesia: Tangerang man positive for H1N1 swine flu: Health Ministry
Via The Jakarta Post: Tangerang man positive for swine flu: Health Ministry. Excerpt:
The 18-year-old man in Tangerang, who was suspected of being infected with bird flu and who died on Wednesday, tested positive for swine flu, the Health Ministry said.
The ministry’s head of research and development, Trihono, told The Jakarta Post on Thursday that the man, known as R, had contracted H1N1, which caused a pandemic in 2009.
Trihono said, however, that it was unlikely that the man had died of swine flu. “While swine flu was deadly in 2009 and 2010, it is no longer a harmful disease.”
He added that the disease is a lot like a more common seasonal flu. “The sufferer does not even need to be isolated,” he said.
The World Health Organization announced in 2010 that the H1N1 swine-flu pandemic had passed, but made clear that “this does not mean that the H1N1 virus has gone away”.
Trihono suspected that the patient might have suffered from another, deadlier disease, which led to his death. “That disease killed him rather than the swine flu.”
Officials from Tangerang General Hospital and the regency’s health authority declined to comment on the swine-flu infection, telling the Post that only Health Ministry officials were authorized to make such comments.
The hospital’s spokesman, Achmad Muchlis, had earlier said that R had died from respiratory problems. The man, a resident from Panongan district in Tangerang, died after being treated for five days.
Mexico Ups Swine Flu Screening as Cases Increase
Three years after swine flu closed Mexico City and caused an international scare, the Mexican government and local media are at odds over the severity of this season's flu virus. Newspapers are warning of an alarming increase in cases while the government insists there is no cause for alarm.
Federal and state health officials agree there is an increase, but they say the number of cases is within the range of a normal flu season.
The Mexican health ministry, however, has listed confusing numbers on its website and it hasn't specified the rise in cases despite repeated requests from The Associated Press.
The federal education ministry said Wednesday that it was instituting screening measures in all elementary schools for the H1N1 flu strain, commonly called swine flu when the first outbreak was discovered in Mexico in March 2009. The ministry revised its message later to say screenings are in place only at schools where children exhibit symptoms.
Local media reported a handful of schools in Mexico City have closed. The education ministry said they were private schools shuttered by administrators and parents, not by official government action.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that while Mexico is seeing more cases of the H1N1 virus, the U.S. is seeing more cases of a different strain, H3N2. Antibodies for both are part of this year's flu vaccine. H1N1 is now considered a seasonal flu.
"We are not aware of any unusual changes in the virus in Mexico that would be concerning," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said in an email to The Associated Press.
Besides the contradicting statements about screenings at schools, the Mexican government has also put out conflicting statistics.
The health ministry on Sunday reported 637 cases of confirmed flu cases so far in 2012 along with 10 deaths — nine of them associated with 573 cases of H1N1.
On Jan. 15, it reported far lower numbers: 181 confirmed cases for all strains of flu and five deaths for 2012, meaning cases would have increased 250 percent in just one week.
The same health bulletin said that for all of last year, there were 870 cases of all strains of flu and 35 deaths.
The World Health Organization in 2009 declared swine flu the first global flu pandemic in 40 years after the outbreak of cases in Mexico that spring and then the strain spread to other countries.
Mexican authorities closed restaurants, schools, museums, libraries and theaters to stop the spread of the disease as initial reports suggested it was killing as many as one in 15 of those infected — a horrifying death rate that would have been more than three times higher than the devastating flu pandemic of 1918-19.
Additional investigation in Mexico suggested that many people had suffered only mild illness. Those cases were not counted in initial reports, meaning the death rate was much, much lower than originally estimated.
By July 2010, the Mexican government reported nearly 76,000 cases of H1N1 and more than 1,300 deaths, the most recent accumulated statistics on its website.
The World Health Organizations estimates that flu causes 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide every year, with about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, primarily among the elderly and the chronically ill.
Federal and state health officials agree there is an increase, but they say the number of cases is within the range of a normal flu season.
The Mexican health ministry, however, has listed confusing numbers on its website and it hasn't specified the rise in cases despite repeated requests from The Associated Press.
The federal education ministry said Wednesday that it was instituting screening measures in all elementary schools for the H1N1 flu strain, commonly called swine flu when the first outbreak was discovered in Mexico in March 2009. The ministry revised its message later to say screenings are in place only at schools where children exhibit symptoms.
Local media reported a handful of schools in Mexico City have closed. The education ministry said they were private schools shuttered by administrators and parents, not by official government action.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that while Mexico is seeing more cases of the H1N1 virus, the U.S. is seeing more cases of a different strain, H3N2. Antibodies for both are part of this year's flu vaccine. H1N1 is now considered a seasonal flu.
"We are not aware of any unusual changes in the virus in Mexico that would be concerning," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said in an email to The Associated Press.
Besides the contradicting statements about screenings at schools, the Mexican government has also put out conflicting statistics.
The health ministry on Sunday reported 637 cases of confirmed flu cases so far in 2012 along with 10 deaths — nine of them associated with 573 cases of H1N1.
On Jan. 15, it reported far lower numbers: 181 confirmed cases for all strains of flu and five deaths for 2012, meaning cases would have increased 250 percent in just one week.
The same health bulletin said that for all of last year, there were 870 cases of all strains of flu and 35 deaths.
The World Health Organization in 2009 declared swine flu the first global flu pandemic in 40 years after the outbreak of cases in Mexico that spring and then the strain spread to other countries.
Mexican authorities closed restaurants, schools, museums, libraries and theaters to stop the spread of the disease as initial reports suggested it was killing as many as one in 15 of those infected — a horrifying death rate that would have been more than three times higher than the devastating flu pandemic of 1918-19.
Additional investigation in Mexico suggested that many people had suffered only mild illness. Those cases were not counted in initial reports, meaning the death rate was much, much lower than originally estimated.
By July 2010, the Mexican government reported nearly 76,000 cases of H1N1 and more than 1,300 deaths, the most recent accumulated statistics on its website.
The World Health Organizations estimates that flu causes 3 million to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide every year, with about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths, primarily among the elderly and the chronically ill.
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