Wednesday, February 13, 2013

胡立阳股票投资100招-第53招-头肩底、多重底与W底的区别

投资人问:

我是一个虔诚的技术分析迷,这方面的书看过不下十余本,现在也小有心得了。只是,在运用图形来选股票时,一直有个令我头大的问题,那就是:当有三只个股分别呈现“头肩底”、“多重底”以及“W底”时,究竟该选择哪一只?

虽然它们都代表着即将反弹的意义。我曾经请教过许多专家,他们都说我是神经病,太吹毛求疵了,我是吗?

许多投资人对股票技术分析中的图形极感兴趣,他们对各种图形的走势是好是坏都相当的清楚。特别是,当股票在底部等待反转的时刻,他们往往会兴奋地说:“现在图形已出现‘W’底形态,行情一定就要翻身了。”当然,看到“头肩底”或者是“多重底”的图形,更会令他们雀跃一番!

长久以来,技术迷总喜欢问:“W底”、“头肩底”以及“多重底”这3种基本反转图形中究竟以哪一种最为神勇、最是厉害?这的确是一个非常有趣也值得研究的问题。

20多年前,我为了找出答案,曾经花了整整一年多的时间,请了两位研究员,利用电脑将世界几个主要股市中大约1000只个股在过去10年的图形表现做了统计,得到了初步答案,虽不敢说百分之百的正确,但已足够将研究心得提出来供大家参考。

我发现,这3种反转图形的“厉害”程度,依排名分别是:

(1)头肩底
(2)多重底
(3)W底。


而 根据统计,当个股出现头肩底的形态时,股价在反弹时往往有回收60%失土甚至更多的几率!举个例说,某只个股由100元跌到50元后,图形呈现“头肩底” 的反弹架构,若日后反弹成真,则股价有由50元回升至80元的潜力。因为由100元下跌到50元,那损失50元的60%是30元,因此回收了30元,反弹 到80元是合理的预估。同样的统计,我们发现多重底的平均回收失土率是40%,而W底的情况则是25%~30%。

这样的统计结果,对图形迷的朋友来说,应该算是一项难能可贵可供上场时使用的参考资料。都送给你们啰!



胡立阳股票投资100招-第52招大涨之后的回档是“好”是“坏”

胡立阳股票投资100招-51大跌之后的反弹是真是假

投资人问:

我哥哥经常在家人面前吹嘘他在股市中是多么的风光,别人遇上股市大跌总是愁眉苦脸,他反而是笑容满面,因为每次都能利用大跌来抢到反弹,讲得我们都好羡慕。但是最近一个月来他变了,变得有些沉默寡言了!

原因是“抢”到了一波比一波跌得更低的“反弹”!我建议他来请教胡老师,他却老说什么“不好意思”,看样子还真是好面子呢!没办法啊,我只有一个哥哥,每天看到他总是垂头丧气的,实在于心不忍,也只有“代兄发问”了!可否赐教一招“抢反弹时如何自保”?哥哥必将感激不尽!

眼见你们兄弟情深,我怎能不助一臂之力呢?不过,在股市中“面子”并不重要,“里子”才最实际。股海浩瀚,玄机无边,我们都经常要向高手请教,你哥哥的脸皮怎么会这么薄呢?唉!

投资人常有的疑惑:昨日指数大跌,但今天又立刻止跌回升,究竟该不该及时抢个反弹呢?

处于这种情况,买或不买应取决于这个反弹是否内含足够的力道。如果能够同时符合下面两项价与量的标准,才算是带劲的反弹,不是陷阱,可以大胆进货:
(1)今日反弹的幅度,已经超过昨日跌幅的50%以上
(2)今日的成交量,较昨日成交量高出20%以上

如果不符合这两项条件,那么这个反弹,常只是挑逗,之后继续下跌的可能性很大。手中持股原本已不少的人,只有在完全符合上两项标准的反弹下,才可以放心地加买几手。

有一年,我应邀到洛杉矶的一个投资俱乐部演讲,当时股市正陷在长期低迷状态之中,凡是喜欢抢个跌深反弹的人都一次又一次地吃尽了苦头。演讲中我不止一次地 呼吁:“千万别在一波比一波跌得深的行情中抢反弹!”终于,有一位在加州大学任教的资深投资专家反问我:“Mr.Hu,大道理我们都懂,只想请问当置身于 反弹之中,你又是怎么知道行情会一波比一波跌得深呢?”

问得真好!我注意到,与会的嘉宾各个也都睁大了眼睛。

根据我对过去两次熊市中所出现接近50次的反弹案例来做了彻底的研究与比较,得出了一项重要的数据:大跌之后的反弹幅度不及跌幅之半,或反弹成交量未超过下跌日成交量的20%以上,那么这个反弹不但不容易持续,反而可以因此预知还有下一波的更低点。

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Friday, February 1, 2013

Time to quit our job?

10 reasons why we should quit our job.

1) The middle class is dead. A few weeks ago I visited a friend of mine who manages a trillion dollars. No joke. A trillion. If I told you the name of the family he worked for you would say, “they have a trillion? Really?” But that’s what happens when $10 million compounds at 2 percent over 200 years. He said, “look out the windows.” We looked out at all the office buildings around us. “What do you see?” he said. “I don’t know.” “They’re empty! All the cubicles are empty. The middle class is being hollowed out.” And I took a closer look. Entire floors were dark. Or there were floors with one or two cubicles but the rest empty. “It’s all outsourced, or technology has taken over for the paper shufflers,” he said. “Not all the news is bad,” he said. “More people entered the upper class than ever last year.” But, he said, more people are temp staffers than ever. And that’s the new paradigm. The middle class has died. The American Dream never really existed. It was a marketing scam. And it was. The biggest provider of mortgages for the past 50 years, Fannie Mae, had as their slogan, “We make the American Dream come true.” It was just a marketing slogan all along. How many times have I cried because of a marketing slogan. And then they ruined it.

2) You’ve been replaced. Technology, outsourcing, a growing temp staffing industry, productivity efficiencies, have all replaced the middle class. The working class. Most jobs that existed 20 years ago aren’t needed now. Maybe they never were needed. The entire first decade of this century was spent with CEOs in their Park Avenue clubs crying through their cigars, “how are we going to fire all this dead weight?” 2008 finally gave them the chance. “It was the economy!” they said. The country has been out of a recession since 2009. Four years now. But the jobs have not come back. I asked many of these CEOs: did you just use that as an excuse to fire people, and they would wink and say, “let’s just leave it at that.” I’m on the board of directors of a temp staffing company with $600 million in revenues. I can see it happening across every sector of the economy. Everyone is getting fired. Everyone is toilet paper now. Flush.

3) Corporations don’t like you. The executive editor of a major news publication took me out to lunch to get advice on how to expand their website traffic. But before I could talk he started complaining to me: “Our top writers keep putting their twitter names in their posts and then when they get more followers they start asking for raises.” “What’s the problem?” I said. “Don’t you want writers that are popular and well-respected?” When I say a “major news publication” I am talking MAJOR. He said, “no, we want to be about the news. We don’t want anyone to be an individual star.” In other words, his main job was to destroy the career aspirations of his most talented people, the people who swore their loyalty to him, the people who worked 90 hours a week for him. If they only worked 30 hours a week and were slightly more mediocre he would’ve been happy. But he doesn’t like you. He wants you to stay in the hole and he will throw you a meal every once in awhile in exchange for your excrement. If anyone is a reporter out there and wants to message me privately I will tell you who it was. But basically, it’s all of your bosses. Every single one of them.

4) Money is not happiness. A common question during my Twitter Q&A, asked at least once a week, is “should I take the job I like or should I take the job that pays more money.” Leaving aside the question of “should I take a job at all,” let’s talk about money for a second. First, the science: studies show that an increase in salary only offers marginal to zero increase in “happiness” above a certain level. Why is this? Because of this basic fact: people spend what they make. If your salary increases $5,000 you spend an extra $2000 on features for your car, you have an affair, you buy a new computer, a better couch, a bigger TV, and then you ask, “where did all the money go?” Even though you needed none of the above now you need one more thing: another increase in your salary, so back to the corporate casino for one more try at the salary roulette wheel. I have never once seen anyone save the increase in their salary. In other words, don’t stay at the job for safe salary increases over time. That will never get you where you want – freedom from financial worry. Only free time, imagination, creativity, and an ability to disappear will help you deliver value that nobody ever delivered before in the history of mankind.

5) Count right now how many people can make a major decision that can ruin your life. I don’t like it when one person can make or break me. A boss. A publisher. A TV producer. A buyer of my company. At any one point I’ve had to kiss ass to all of the above. I hate it. I will never do it again. The way to avoid this is to diversify the things you are working on so no one person or customer or boss or client can make a decision that could make you rich or destroy you or fulfill your life’s dreams or crush them. I understand it can’t happen in a day. Start planning now how to create your own destiny instead of allowing people who don’t like you to control your destiny. When you do this count, make sure the number comes to over 20. Then when you spin the wheel the odds are on your side that a winning number comes up.

6) Is your job satisfying your needs? I will define “needs” the way I always do, via the four legs of what I call “the daily practice.” Are your physical needs, your emotional needs, your mental needs, and your spiritual needs being satisfied? The only time I’ve had a job that did was when I had to do little work so that I had time on the side to either write, or start a business, or have fun, or spend time with friends. The times when I haven’t is when I was working too hard, dealing with people I didn’t like, getting my creativity crushed over and over, and so on. When you are in those situations you need to plot out your exit strategy. Your hands are not made to type out memos. Or put paper through fax machines. Or hold a phone up while you talk to people you dislike. A hundred years from now your hands will rot like dust in your grave. You have to make wonderful use of those hands now. Kiss your hands so they can make magic. One can argue, “not everyone is entitled to have all of those needs satisfied at a job.” That’s true. But since we already know that the salary of a job won’t make you happy, you can easily modify lifestyle and work to at least satisfy more of your needs. And the more these needs are satisfied the more you will create the conditions for true abundance to come into your life. Your life is a house. Abundance is the roof. But the foundation and the plumbing need to be in there first or the roof will fall down, the house will be unlivable. You create the foundation by following the Daily Practice. I say this not because I am selling anything but because it worked for me every time my roof caved in. My house has been bombed, my home has been cold and blistering winds gave me frost bite, but I managed to rebuild. This is how I did it.

7) Your Retirement Plan is For Shit. I don’t care how much you set aside for your 401k. It’s over. The whole myth of savings is gone. Inflation will carve out the bulk of your 401k. And in order to cash in on that retirement plan you have to live for a really long time doing stuff you don’t like to do. And then suddenly you’re 80 and you’re living a reduced lifestyle in a cave and can barely keep warm at night. The only retirement plan is to Choose Yourself. To start a business or a platform or a lifestyle where you can put big chunks of money away. Some people can say, “well, I’m just not an entrepreneur.” This is not true. Everyone is an entrepreneur. The only skills you need to be an entrepreneur: an ability to fail, an ability to have ideas, to sell those ideas, to execute on those ideas, and to be persistent so even as you fail you learn and move onto the next adventure. Or be an entrepreneur at work. An “entre-ployee.” Take control of who you report to, what you do, what you create. Or start a business on the side. Deliver some value, any value, to anybody, to somebody, and watch that value compound into a career. What is your other choice? To stay at a job where the boss is trying to keep you down, will eventually replace you, will pay you only enough for you to survive, will rotate between compliments and insults so you stay like a fish caught on the bait as he reels you in. Is that your best other choice? You and I have the same 24 hours each day. Is that how you will spend yours?

8) Excuses. ”I’m too old.” “I’m not creative.” “I need the insurance.” “I have to raise my kids.” I was at a party once. A stunningly beautiful woman came up to me and said, “James, how are you!?” WHAT? Who are you? I said, “Hey! I’m doing well.” But I had no idea who I was talking to. Why would this woman be talking to me? I was too ugly. It took me a few minutes of fake conversation to figure out who she was. It turns out she was the frumpish-looking woman who had been fired six months earlier from the job we were at. She had cried as she packed up her cubicle when she was fired. She was out of shape, she looked about 30 years older than she was, and now her life was going to go from better to worse. Until…she realized that she was out of the zoo. In the George Lucas movie, THX-1138 (the name of the main character was “THX-1138″) everyone’s choices are removed and they all live underground because above ground is “radioactive.” Finally THX decides better to die above ground than suffer forever underground where he wasn’t allowed to love. He wasn’t free. He makes his way above ground, evading all the guards and police. And when he gets there, it’s sunny. Everyone above ground is beautiful, and they are waiting for him with open arms and kisses. The excuse “but it’s radioactive out there!” was just there to keep him down. “This is easy for you to say,” people say to me. “Some of us HAVE to do this!” The now-beautiful woman had to do it also. “What are you doing now?” I asked her. “Oh, you know,” she said. “Consulting.” But some people say, “I can’t just go out there and consult. What does that even mean?” And to that I answer, “Ok, I agree with you.” Who am I to argue? If someone insists they need to be in prison even though the door is unlocked then I am not going to argue. They are free to stay in prison.

9) It’s okay to take baby steps. ”I can’t just QUIT!” people say. “I have bills to pay.” I get it. Nobody is saying quit today. Before a human being runs a marathon they learn to crawl, then take baby steps, then walk, then run. Then exercise every day and stay healthy. Then run a marathon. Heck, what am I even talking about? I can’t run more than two miles without collapsing in agony. I am a wimp. Make the list right now. Every dream. I want to be a bestselling author. I want to reduce my material needs. I want to have freedom from many of the worries that I have succumbed to all my life. I want to be healthy. I want to help all of the people around me or the people who come into my life. I want everything I do to be a source of help to people. I want to only be around people I love, people who love me. I want to have time for myself. THESE ARE NOT GOALS. These are themes. Every day, what do I need to do to practice those themes? It starts the moment I wake up: “Who can I help today?” I ask the darkness when I open my eyes. “Who would you have me help today?” I’m a secret agent and I’m waiting for my mission. Ready to receive. This is how you take baby steps. This is how eventually you run towards freedom.

10) Abundance will never come from your job. Only stepping out of the prison imposed on you from your factory will allow you to achieve abundance. You can’t see it now. It’s hard to see the gardens when you are locked in jail. Abundance only comes when you are moving along your themes. When you are truly enhancing the lives of the people around you. When every day you wake up with that motive of enhancement. Enhance your family, your friends, your colleagues, your clients, potential customers, readers, people who you don’t even know yet but you would like to know. Become a beacon of enhancement and then, when the night is gray, all of the boats will move towards you, bringing their bountiful riches. – Don’t believe me. Stay with a boss that hates you. A job that is keeping you locked on a chain around your neck, tantalizing you with incremental increases in pay and job title. Stay in a culture that is quietly replacing the entire middle class. This is not anyone’s fault. These are the tectonic plates of economics destroying an entire suburban culture that has lasted for almost 100 years. Until you choose yourself for success, and all that choice entails, you will be locked into the prison. You will stare into your lover’s eyes looking for a sign that he or she loves you back. But slowly the lights will fade, the warmth of another body will grow cold, and you will go to sleep dreamless in the dark once again.

Taken from : http://www.jamesaltucher.com/

我的股票Portfolio 01.02.2013

2013年2月,我开始对马来西亚股票失去信心。
13届大选,无论任何一方赢都不是好的局面。我觉得未来几年马来西亚的情况无论任何一赢了都会陷入混乱的局面。。。。。。我开始害怕。
暂时不在买入任何股票,继续将投机股票出清,只保留孩子portfolio股票。

不过还是有东西我觉得可以投资。
1。大选后我觉得未来6个月内马来西亚房地产开始泡沫破裂,可以观察房地产市场动静。
2。买入Silver, hold 3年或以上。日本也开始大量印钱贬值,未来全世界的货币战争开始爆发。
3。如果你有钱和经验,可以买入Apple,我觉得它已经被低估了。USD500左右是很好买入价。
4。如果你觉得马股还会跌,考虑FKLI

港股将步入牛市三期

据香港信报报道,港股由去年11月初开始发力,至今恒指已直迫2011年上半年的高位24000点水平。“香港股神”曹仁超接受媒体专访时表示,港股牛市二期理论上已经完成,预料即将步入牛市三期,并直言:“港股今年上半年一定好,即使‘猫狗股’都会照升可也。”
曹仁超表示,港股于2008年见底后,若由2009年开始踏入牛市一期计算,港股于2009年10月左右已完成牛市一期,及后资金开始在不同板块炒 作,是为牛市二期,亦即慢牛期。随着恒指近日逼近24000点水平,预料牛市二期也将确认完结,朝着牛市三期,也就是什么都升(Everything Grows)的时期进发。
“猫狗股”照升
事实上,自去年12月开始,香港、美国及中国股市均显著向好。曹仁超指出,内地股市于去年12月才开始见底回升,故相信只是刚踏入牛市或牛市二期; 美国股市则在量化宽松货币政策下,继续支撑下去,但实际情况只可称为“好也好不了,坏也坏不了”,故资金已开始由美国流走,移至本港甚至欧洲国家;因此, 本港由去年12月至今,也一直录得资金流入。
正当美国财政悬崖忧虑暂时消失;加上资金继续由美国流向本港以至欧洲各国,恒指已直迫24000点水平。理论上,本港牛市二期也近乎完结。曹仁超相 信,港股已朝牛市三期进发。并谓踏入牛市三期后,愈落后的股份愈有炒作,故此时即使被称为“猫狗股”的四五六线股份,也会有炒作空间;值得留意的板块包括 工业股、资源股、钢铁股、铝业股及航运股等落后股。
不过,曹仁超也提醒,若以波浪理论去分析,目前恒指完成第二个浪,但相信第三个上升浪若能于今年4月或5月稍作回落,预料今年将出现第四及第五浪, 恒指目标为30000点;然而,若第三个升浪恒指未有回吐,而一直上升至9月左右,恒指目标则为27000点,但升浪将于暑假后完成,暑假后要开始留意, 恐防10月前将有大调整。无论如何,曹仁超形容,今年上半年港股就如处于安全区(Security Zone),大家照炒可也。
至于金价方面,曹仁超表示,每当金价回落至每盎斯1500至1600美元均可吸纳。他预期,下一次金价再起,将会是股市大泻之时,但也相信将是近年金价最后一次大升浪。

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

胡立阳股票投资100招-第50开高走低与开低走高

投资人问:
前次在上海听您演讲,您曾提醒大家要注意行情“开高走低”或者是“开低走高”的现象,非常有趣,只是当时讲得太快,我和女友都来不及记笔记,可否再说一次?

哎呀!很高兴你能记得我在股市中所用的“开高走低”与“开低走高”这两个名词,很传神,不是吗?

判断回档时机,是决定何时该获利了结的关键。如果某只股票已经连续上涨了一阵子,今天开盘时再度大幅上扬,但尾盘时股价竟出乎意料之外地以下跌做收,或是 虎头蛇尾表现软趴趴的,这可不是一个好现象。如果股价连续两天都如此表现,投资人就要多加留意了,这通常是股价即将回档的征兆。

不仅个股如此,对大盘指数而言,这个原则仍然适用。如果连续两天指数也是“开高走低”,表示股市极可能变盘。

根据我在美国所做的电脑抽样统计,连续2.11天(比2天多一点)“开高走低”的现象发生后,股价会产生回档情形。

开高走低常使投资人泪满襟。

另外一种完全相反的状况,个股价格已下跌了好几天,而今日开盘后仍是一蹶不振,但临收盘时竟猛然拉升到平盘价之上,这是令人鼓舞的现象。这种“开低走高”情形若连续发生2天,往往表示股价即将反弹。

同样的道理,也可以应用到指数上。当“开低走高”情形连续发生2.17天,便极可能产生强劲反弹。

一直以来,特别是那些频繁进出股指期货的大户,对我的这项统计结果极为重视。

开低走高的情形连续发生两天常表示股价即将强劲反弹。

胡立阳股票投资100招-第49卖出天天上涨的股票要有技巧

胡立阳股票投资100招-第49卖出天天上涨的股票要有技巧

投资人问:

买到一只连涨5天的个股真的是很开心。但是,它今天终于出现了第一天的回档,虽然只是小跌,却仍然让我担心,有点想获利了结了,究竟该怎么做呢?伤脑筋啊!

谁说赚了钱的人就没有烦恼?当你手中的股票开始连续性的大涨,反而让人忧心忡忡,究竟该不该卖了呢?

卖得太早真会遗憾终生,怎么会那么沉不住气;卖得太晚,到了手的鸟儿又飞了,变成终生遗憾了!

原则上,买到这种股票能拖就拖,要在真正开始下跌的时候才做了结。开始回跌的第一天,只要收盘价跌幅没有超过7%,不必急着卖出。因为有许多这种连续性大 涨的股票,涨个几天后,会突然回跌一天,正如一个人跑了一大段路后必须停下来喘口气一般。但是,就有许多人会在这个喘息的时候慌忙出手,眼见花落别人家, 那种滋味很不好受。

是否真正该卖的关键时刻要看第二天。如果经过第一天的下跌,第二天开盘后也并无起色,而且估计在收盘之前跌势无法扭转,为了保存战果,这时就可以挂出了。

用功的你可能又要举手发问:“前面为什么要提到跌幅不能超过7%呢?”

由我过去抽样150家个股的长期追踪统计显示,一只个股只要在连续上涨了3天之后,如果突然出现7%以上的大幅回档,下面它能继续上冲的几率马上减少为39%。而在熊市中,这个比率更是会掉到只剩18%。

统计数字极为有趣而且清晰易懂,它提醒我们,任何股票只要出现了单日的大跌,即使本身未出问题,也会对原本正在上升中的趋势造成伤害。

既然如此,对喜欢做短线的人而言,这时或许就可以先落袋为安了。

胡立阳股票投资100招-第48短线的防身术:三日原则

胡立阳股票投资100招-第48短线的防身术:三日原则

投资人问:

这半年来行情一路飙升,我的几位好友因为进场够早,已成了小富婆了。我则是一直没买,坦白说,内心还真不是滋味呢!一个月前,终于急了,很想炒个短线,至少也要赚点小钱,

这样心态才会平衡。

没想到,一连买进了五只个股,竟神准到只只一买就套,其中两只更已经大跌超过了20%。现在,每天除了感叹自己没有赚钱的命,也开始怀疑短线操作是否真的需要具备特殊的本领或是天赋的资质?

你的遭遇的确值得同情,希望现在教你这招短线操作的防身术不算太晚!

既然是玩短线,买进后一两天的股价表现当然希望是只能涨不能跌的。但是,长期观察下来,能够“一买就赚”的人很少,而“一买就套”的人太多,相当讽刺。

为什么呢?很简单,只因为你是个“正常人”!我在股市中有一句名言:“正常人”在股市中是赚不到钱的!

正常人总会在股市沸腾,某只强势个股已经大涨了一段的时候,也兴起了赶紧去分一杯羹的贪念,想抢个短差。由于是追高,遇上拉回的几率当然很高。另外一种极端情况是,去挑些股价相对便宜的弱势股,安慰自己是买在“低档”。这两种买进都很容易让你一买就套!

提醒大家,短线操作绝对要有技术,其中最基本的就是要遵守老手们都很注意的“三日原则”,这样才能将短线风险压低,进而增加胜率。

根据统计,真正的强势股大都能在3天之内不断创下新高价,也就是说,必须一鼓作气才能维持上冲的动能。同理,股价一旦拉回,若是无法在3天之内重新站上拉回前的高点,开始出现整理甚至是反转为弱势的几率就大大提高了。

好了,这就是所谓的“三日原则”!

记得哦,无论是在什么价位买进的,3天之内假若都还住在“套房”里,最好先跑一趟,再试试别的个股吧!

没有三两三,怎敢上梁山!想玩短线,可没这么容易。

迟到总比不到好。