Corporate: Tin gets a new shine

The rise in tin prices signals a long-term recovery for the long-forgotten industry. The former CEO of Malaysia Smelting Corp explains what’s driving the new upcycle and what it will take for it to be sustainable.

Mohd Ajib Anuar looks tired and drained as he walks into the boardroom of Malaysia Smelting Corp (MSC). It is a muggy afternoon in Kuala Lumpur, and the Muslim fasting month has just started. But he snaps out of his languor as soon as he begins talking about tin, the metal that made fortunes for many Malaysian tycoons through most of the last century.

To be sure, the tin business has been viewed as something of a sunset industry since the mid-1980s. Yet, since the global financial crisis, tin prices have climbed steadily higher, amid a persistent supply deficit in the face of growing demand. Now, Mohd Ajib sees a new dawn breaking for the tin business. “Definitely. No question about it. The tin industry will grow into a more sustainable industry,” he tells The Edge Singapore.

Mohd Ajib, 64, has worked in the tin business for more than four decades. He was CEO of MSC from 1994 to 2013. The 127-year tin smelter is dual-listed in Singapore and Malaysia, and ranks as the world’s second largest producer of tin metal. It is controlled by The Straits Trading Company. Mohd Ajib isn’t planning to fade away into retirement, though. He has been appointed adviser to the board of MSC. He is also currently chairman of Malaysia’s Tin Industry Board, and continues to play an active role in a host of other tin industry organisations.

In fact, Mohd Ajib says he plans to remain active in the tin business for the next couple of decades, which he believes will be an exciting time for the industry. Specifically, he wants to help promising tin companies around the world realise their full potential, and hints that he is already working on “something big”.

His optimism is underpinned by the expanding uses of tin in recent years. Take the capsules on wine bottles for instance. The protective sleeves, which prevent the cork seals from being gnawed by rodents and other pests as they sit in cellars, were historically made of lead. But these were phased out due to fears of lead poisoning, and are now largely made of tin or aluminium.

In May, tin research promoter ITRI launched a committee to push for the use of pure tin capsules for premium wines at an exhibition in Hong Kong. “It’s the best capsule for the best wine. It’s non-toxic. The mechanical quality is good. The chemical quality is good. It looks very nice,” says Mohd Ajib, laughing at his own enthusiasm.

There are, of course, many other new and less mundane uses of tin. Notably, environmentally friendly uses of tin have been discovered through collaborative research by ITRI and companies such as Panasonic, Sony, Nokia and Motorola.

Today, tin chemicals are used in lithium ion batteries and modern fuel additives. According to Mohd Ajib, recent fuel additive trials in China and Peru achieved 10% to 15% energy savings for fishing boats and earth moving equipment, while carbon emissions were 20% to 30% lower. MSC’s own subsidiary Rahman Hydraulic Tin has been involved in work on tin-based fuel additives.

Riding new technologies

Tin has been in use for some 5,000 years, though it was first mined in large quantities in Cornwall, Britain in the 19th century. In the last few decades, the story of tin has been shaped by the ebb and flow of new technologies, and a succession of market crises.

In 1985, tin prices collapsed when the International Tin Council, which administers a buffer stock used to support prices, became insolvent. The council was borrowing heavily to keep prices high at a time when consumption was falling, which encouraged new producers such as Brazil and Bolivia to flood the market. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, production dried up as rich alluvial resources were exhausted. In 1995, global consumption was just 180,000 tonnes, driven mostly by tinplating. Tin prices at the time had declined to just US$5,000 a tonne.

Nearly 20 years on, consumption has doubled and the price of tin has risen to US$22,000 a tonne. In fact, tin prices have risen 100% in the last five years alone. One reason for this comeback was the switch by the electronics industry to lead-free solder following regulations in the European Union prohibiting hazardous wastes in 2002. Since then, the miniaturisation of devices such as computers and smartphones has resulted in less solder being used in the consumer electronics sector. Industries like healthcare and defence, however, are taking up some of the slack.

“The defence and medical sectors needed more time to establish the durability of the soldering materials. But now that it’s been confirmed by the consumer electronics sector, they are taking steps to convert to lead-free solders, and this is where we will see growth,” says Mohd Ajib. Even so, tin consumption last year was 350,000 tonnes, still below the peak of 370,000 tonnes in 2007, largely because of the global economic slowdown and the miniaturisation effect.

Looking ahead, Mohd Ajib figures demand for tin could keep growing as computers and electronic parts find their way into just about everything. The automobile sector, for instance, is increasingly using electronic parts in the vehicles it produces. “So, for tin to show further improvement in price, consumption and supply, it is not impossible. Some people say it will shoot up to US$40,000.” ITRI has forecast global tin consumption to rise at an annual rate of 2% over the next five to 10 years. Consumption is set to exceed 400,000 tonnes from around 2015.

Supply constraints

While demand for tin has been strong in recent years, supply has become more uncertain. For starters, China has turned from a net exporter to a net importer. That is significant as China is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of tin.

At the same time, supply from Indonesia, which is the world’s leading exporter of tin, has become more unpredictable. Small, artisanal miners account for more than 80% of tin produced in Indonesia. The Indonesian government has been trying to set standards in the industry, such as requiring that smelters produce 99.9% pure tin. It has also mandated that exports be made through the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. On top of that, the Indonesian government has tried to control the price of the metal.

The result of all this is that tin exports from Indonesia have become erratic. “Stocks held at LME [London Metal Exchange] and by consumers are at historical lows,” Mohd Ajib says. “So, with Indonesian supply declining and China becoming a net importer, the market is going to move into greater deficit within the next two to three years.”

While that could be good news for speculators, it isn’t really healthy for the tin industry over the longer term, according to Mohd Ajib. To foster higher consumption of tin over the long term, supply has to be sustainable and prices need to be steady. How can that be achieved? Mohd Ajib says the key is an industry-wide consolidation.

“Today, you have to buy from small-scale miners… but the global tin industry will undergo a major shift, transforming the supply structure from small-scale to more structured producers and a more sustainable way of production,” he says. The reason is that a significant amount of capital will be needed to create sufficient supply around the world, perhaps as much as US$3 billion ($3.7 billion) over the next five years. And, it is the largest tin companies that will be able to channel this capital efficiently into proper exploration and mining schemes and environmental programmes.

“It’s going to be more orderly. Of course, the cost will be higher, but the electronics industry will be happy to see sustainability on the supply side,” Mohd Ajib says. In fact, Mohd Ajib figures the price of tin will have to be higher than where it is today — perhaps US$30,000 per tonne — to sustain production at the level of demand. At current prices, only a handful of exploratory projects might be feasible, he says.

According to Mohd Ajib, among the companies that are best positioned to increase tin supply is Kasbah Resources, which has a project in Morocco. Other promising players are Australia’s Stellar Resources and Consolidated Tin Mines. Yet, it will take these projects three years to prove their reserves before they can start developing the mines. Amid continued supply constraints, ITRI has forecast a rise in tin prices to a cyclical peak of US$35,000 to US$40,000 between 2015 and 2017.

Growing interest

Mohd Ajib began his career at a Malaysian unit of Anglo American. He later worked for several years at Malaysia Mining Corp, which was involved in tin, diamond and gold mining. As he tells it, he entered the tin industry at the bottom of the cycle, when everyone else was trying to get out. And, it is not that he lacked alternatives, as he was offered jobs at big Malaysian government-linked companies such as Petroliam Nasional and Perbadanan Nasional during his early years. “But I stuck to tin,” he says.

What was the attraction? Mohd Ajib says the tin industry is small yet very global, and it put him in touch with people all over the world. “I just like this industry,” he says. “After 43 years, whether I am in Japan, Korea or the US, I have a lot of friends.” Now, Mohd Ajib is leveraging some of those global connections and becoming a dealmaker of sorts, bringing companies that need capital for expansion to investors. “I am working on something big. I have lots of friends all over the world. In London, I know all the big brokers,” he says.

Will some of the companies he’s dealing with come to Singapore to raise capital? For the moment, Mohd Ajib is keeping his cards close to his chest. Yet, Singapore is a natural hub for tin producers. More than 70% of Indonesia’s tin exports are sent here for warehousing and redistribution. Meanwhile, MSC itself counts several thousand retail investors in Singapore.

Yet, Hong Kong appears to have had the edge in attracting huge mining companies. In recent years, it has trumped Singapore by winning over the likes of United Company ­RUSAL, Glencore and Kazakhmys. Mohd Ajib says if Singapore is to become a listing venue for big resources companies, a lot more work has to be done to educate investors. “The resources business, whether it is tin or gold, is a long-term business,” he says. “The lead time to develop resources can vary from five to 15 years. So, for investors to go into resources, they have to take a long-term view. Otherwise, it gets too speculative.

Malaysia Smelting may reinstate dividend on improving earnings, but risks remain

Malaysia Smelting Corp’s facility in Penang sits on what could well be prime seafront land one day. Hidden behind concrete walls topped with barbed wire, and located close to the Penang Bridge, it started out more than a century ago processing tin ore from mines in Perak and Selangor. These days, MSC has a much wider global network. On a sunny afternoon in June, bags of tin ore from mines in Congo, Rwanda, Bolivia, Myanmar, China and Mongolia were piled chest high on the floor of the plant. Out in the yard, neat stacks of shiny tin ingots waiting to be shipped out gleamed in the sunlight.

Chua Cheong Yong, CEO of MSC, says the company’s financial results are regaining their shine too, thanks to a sharper focus on its traditional tin smelting business in the last couple of years. However, growing that business over the long term is becoming more difficult, because of the increasingly limited supply of tin ore.

Malaysia’s tin mining business pretty much died in the mid-1980s, amid a slump in tin prices just as the country’s once-rich alluvial deposits were almost exhausted. A decade ago, MSC began trying to move upstream to secure its own supply of tin ore. In 2002, it took a 75% stake in Indonesia’s PT Koba Tin, which has a mine on Bangka Island. Two years later, in 2004, it acquired Rahman Hydraulic Tin, which operates Malaysia’s largest open-pit alluvial tin mine.

MSC also made a bid to expand into other commodities. In 2007, it bought stakes in mines in Australia, Canada, Indonesia and the Philippines that produce copper, gold, zinc, silver, nickel and coal. Its timing couldn’t have been worse. The following year, commodity prices collapsed in the wake of the global financial crisis. In addition, the family of the late Tan Chin Tuan tightened their grip on The Straits Trading Company, which controls MSC, and embarked on a strategic review of the whole group.

MSC was directed to focus on tin, and it promptly began offloading the non-tin mining assets it had only just acquired. Then, in 2012, PT Koba Tin ran into trouble when it failed to extend its contract for work, in spite of renewal guarantees. The Indonesian government also hiked export duties on tin ore from 5% to 30%. MSC decided it wasn’t worth hanging on to PT Koba Tin, and sold its stake in June.

The silver lining is that the string of impairment losses that MSC suffered over the last few years will finally come to an end. “By June, we would have taken out most of the hit,” Chua tells The Edge Singapore. “Now, operations will be very much driven by smelting, marketing and trading and [tin] mines, which have shown resilience in riding the downturn. We need to build up confidence again.”

In 1Q2014, MSC reported a 2% decline in earnings to RM14.7 million on a 2% rise in revenue to RM429 million. The company hasn’t declared a dividend since 2012, but that could change soon. “We are looking to distribute dividends again,” says Chua. “In the short to medium term, we are looking to stabilisation. In the mid to long term, there is potential to develop.”

Expansion plans

How does Chua plan to grow the company? One idea is to broaden MSC’s business to include tantalum and tungsten, which are related to tin. “The market for tantalum and tungsten is one third or a quarter the size of tin, but their valuation is good. They occur together and share the same supply network. There is nothing to stop us from trading tantalum and tungsten since we have a strong marketing network in the Asia-Pacific,” he says. “They will support our mid- to long-term growth.”

Chua also wants to expand MSC’s tin mining operations. However, after its unpleasant experience in Indonesia, he says MSC will focus on Malaysia and “regionally accessible and more-friendly countries”. Notably, it has carefully nurtured Rahman Hydraulic Tin into a money spinner. The 107-year-old mine was losing money when MSC bought it a decade ago. Last year, it made RM34 million ($13.3 million) before tax, up 17%. Now, it is poised to grow bigger. In March, Rahman Hydraulic Tin acquired an 80% stake in SL Tin, which holds a mining concession in the state of Pahang.

MSC has also been laying the ground to secure mining concessions in the strife-torn Republic of Congo. While the United Nations has introduced sanctions to cut off funding to rebels fighting the government, MSC has initiated a scheme to certify non-conflict tin from the country. According to Chua, tin produced in Congo is now traceable each step of the way from source to smelter. MSC itself has been audited three times, the last audit being in May. MSC also owns a 40% stake in a smelting plant in Lubumbashi.

Much of Congo’s tin is produced by artisanal miners, who lack the resources to make big investments to increase production in an environmentally sustainable way. However, Chua is hoping the day will come when the Congo government allows big mining companies to gain access to its mineral resources. “Africa has huge potential if we get our strategy right and the government does not sway away from development,” he says.

Long-term risks

Chua joined MSC right out of university some 30 years ago. Among his earliest tasks at the company was buying tin ore from miners in Taiping, in the state of Perak. He worked his way up the ranks, and was appointed CEO on Dec 31 last year.

Looking ahead, Chua is candid about the risks MSC faces. While the company is working to secure as much supply of tin ore as possible, he says tin producing countries will eventually want to set up their own smelters and take control of their mines. “Resource nationalism is very real today,” Chua says. “We have to take a view on tin price and sovereign risk before we go into a project.”

Some market watchers also fear that MSC’s controlling shareholder has little appetite to fund major acquisitions. They point out that Australia-listed Kasbah Resources, which has the most advanced of tin projects in the pipeline, is currently trying to raise some US$100 million ($124.5 million) but failed to get MSC to come in as an investor. Kasbah Resources’ shareholders include International Finance Corp, Toyota Tsusho and Thai smelter Thaisarco.

When approached for comment, however, a spokeswoman for Straits Trading says the group wants to see MSC grow. “Straits Trading will support MSC in any initiatives that will create value for shareholders,” she tells The Edge Singapore. “Straits Trading will be supportive of MSC in its quest to enhance its position in the tin industry.”

Whatever the case, with MSC on the road to profitability and likely to reinstate its dividend, its shareholders are likely to see better times ahead. And, even if the company’s tin business doesn’t grow much, the land it occupies in Penang will certainly rise in value over time.


The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd

Document EDGESI0020140805ea8400008

淨虧擴大賣壓罩頂 馬熔錫一度挫20仙

（吉隆坡13日訊）馬熔錫（MSC，5916，主要板工業）截至本財年6月底次季淨虧擴大近5倍，今日賣壓罩頂，一度重挫20仙至3.01令吉，寫下3個月新低水平。

　馬熔錫開盤出師不利，以3.01令吉開市，重挫20仙，較后該股收窄跌幅，休市掛3.14令吉，跌7仙，交易量16萬9500股，仍離不開10大下跌股榜。

　馬熔錫午盤持續走跌；截至下午4時半，該股滑1仙，報3.20令吉，成交量28萬1200股。

　興業證券研究分析員黃顯源在報告指出，儘管業績表現差勁，但較高錫價推動上半年核心淨利超越預期。

　錫產量未來數年料將持續放緩，需求方面卻有增無減，故錫礦市場基本面極有可能在短期內改善。

　截至目前，錫價仍比預測低，每公噸遊走介于2萬3375美元至2萬4125美元（約7萬4578令吉至7萬6970令吉），該行因此維持核心收入預測。

　“我們建議投資者不必太在乎馬熔錫首半年虧損表現，並看好錫礦市場前景能帶動未來業績表現。”

　該行持續給予“買入”建議，合理價4.20令吉。http://www.chinapress.com.my/node/551499

業績受特別虧損拖累‧馬熔錫前景仍看好

馬熔錫機構（MSC,5916,主板工業產品組）扣除特別虧損後的表現比預期佳，由於市場對錫的強烈需求，興業研究繼續看好該公司前景。

馬熔錫機構在上半年的核心淨盈利達3千350萬令吉，按季比較，第二季的核心淨盈利上升了22.5%。主要業績成長歸功其子公司拉曼水力錫礦的採礦業務從高錫價中得益。

興業研究表示，雖然馬熔錫機構在為脫售印尼Koba錫，應收賬款減值及為財務擔保全數撥備後在上半年損失了4千760萬令吉，但這屬特殊個案。

此外，市場對錫的高需求也是馬熔錫機構的主要動力。興業研究相信全球錫產量將有所限制，加上半導體銷售及中國半導體生產對錫的強烈需求，在短期內錫的需求將持續旺盛，也將帶動馬熔錫機構的營運。

興業研究呼吁投資者勿把重點放在上半年的特別虧損，希望該公司可重新出發。基於目前錫市的正面基本面及上半年馬熔錫機構比預期好的表現，興業研究給予馬熔錫機構“買入”評級，目標價4令吉20仙。（星洲日報／財經‧報道：陳林德）

窮人和富人的區別

我們可能不止一次地抱怨過自己為什麼會是窮人，抱怨賺錢太艱難，但事實是很大程度上就是因為這樣的心態，才阻止了我們走向更富有的道路的方向。現在我們就來看看窮人和富人的根本區別是什麼，調好你的心理狀態才能變更好哦。

 

　　

　　窮人很少想到如何去賺錢或如何才能賺到錢，他們更多的想如何找一份穩定的工作和穩定的生活；富人有強烈的賺錢意識，他不會侷限於某地某時，哪裡有錢賺哪裡就是他的家。

　　

　　一、社交：窮人喜歡走窮親戚，窮人排斥與富人交往，久而久之也成就了窮人的心態和行為模式；富人多是邀請富人，話題也是如何賺錢的門道經驗。

　　

　　二、業餘生活：窮人在家看電視，被肥皂劇感動得痛苦流涕，還要按照劇裡的時尚來打扮自己；富人在外跑市場，就是打球時也不忘記帶著項目和合同。

　　

　　三、時間：窮人的時間是不值錢的，他們在空閒裡手腳都在忙，忙着去打牌，忙着去麻將桌上摸幾把，賭運氣；富人的閒時也是一種工作方式，修身養性，以利再戰，腦子一刻也不閒着。

　　

　　四、激情：窮人只有激動沒有激情，上司表揚了他會激動，商店打折了他也會激動；富人總有這樣的激情：每個人都終將不是窮人，“王侯將相，寧有種乎？”

　　

　　五、歸屬感：窮人是顆螺絲釘，他們迫切希望自己從屬並依賴於某一團體，並以這個團體的標準要求自己；富人總是一方面向窮人灌輸團體精神，一方面又暗地招兵買馬，培養新人。

　　

　　六、自信：窮人的自信來自外表，來自外界的眼光和評價，窮人的自信往往不是發自內心和自然天成的；富人李嘉誠說：光景好時決不過分樂觀，光景不好時，也決不過分悲觀……這種自信來自內心，它決不會被外力所左右。

　　

　　七、習慣：有個故事：一個富人送給窮人一頭牛，窮人滿懷希望地開始奮鬥，可是牛要吃草，人要吃飯，日子難熬，於是窮人把牛賣了，買了幾隻羊，吃了一 隻，盼着其他羊生小羊，可是小羊沒生出來，日子又艱難了，窮人只好賣了羊，買了雞，想讓雞生蛋，但是日子仍沒有改變，最後窮人把雞也殺了，又恢復了以前的 生活。一個投資專家說，富人成功的秘訣是：不管多麼困難，也不要動用投資和儲蓄，壓力會幫助你找到賺錢的辦法。

HONG LEONG INDUSTRIES (HLI MK) Tapping On The Growth Of Hume Cement

We are increasingly positive on the growth prospects of Hume Cement, underpinned by its plant’s improving efficiency and a potential doubling in production capacity to cater to more markets. Given the relatively lofty valuation in Narra, investing in Hume Cement through HLI (HLI investors to receive 1.08 Narra shares for every share held) could be a more attractive option. Upgrade HLI to BUY with a higher target price of RM7.95. WHAT’S NEW • Increasing target price to RM7.95. As we are more optimistic on the operational efficiency and utilisation rate of the Hume Cement plant 18 months after production commencement, we raise our forecast for Hume Cement’s 2015 net profit to RM70m (from RM55m) and thus Narra’s 2015 net profit forecast to RM80m. Pegging at a higher 18x of (previously 17x) 2015 PE for Narra, our SOTP target price for HLI is raised to RM7.95, from RM7.16. • To double cement production capacity in 2 years’ time. We understand Hume Cement’s plant utilisation rate has hit 82-85% and the company intends to double the capacity via Phase 2 expansion adjacent to its existing plant. This potential RM500m-600m expansion will see Hume Cement’s capacity surpassing that of some peers (potentially becoming the third-largest cement player) and improving its economies of scale. After ramping up its capacity, Hume Cement plans to penetrate the southern regional markets which it has yet to have a presence. And in the longer term, it may also consider moving downstream to the ready-mix cement market. • Potentially to use par value for share price adjustment. Separately, we understand that so far, Bursa seems to have no issue with HLI’s proposal to use the par value to adjust its share price to reflect the distribution of Narra shares to HLI shareholders (1.08 Narra shares for every HLI share). If so, after the shares go ex Narra distribution, HLI’s share price will be adjusted by RM1.08, which is significantly lower than the potential distribution value of Narra of >RM5/HLI share (based on Narra’s present valuation). STOCK IMPACT • Restructuring exercise expected to complete in end-September. Management is hopeful of completing the restructuring exercise by end-September. The company is currently waiting for the court’s approval for capital reduction and distribution. Hume Cement doing well in FY14. After achieved an impressive RM7.8m net profit in FY13 with only one quarter of official commissioning production, we understand Hume Cement is likely to achieve more than RM50m net profit in FY14. Moving into FY15, we believe the higher utilisation rate and gradual improvement in efficiency will allow Hume Cement to see further bottom-line improvement. Hume Cement’s good limestone reserves make it more efficient than peers who source for limestone externally. Our 2015 RM70m net profit forecast assumes 1.6m-tonne production and RM295/tonne net selling price. • Expecting sustainable earnings and dividend payout post restructuring. HLI’s earnings are sustainable or stronger in FY15-16, after stripping out Hume Cement’s ICPS and Hume Concrete. We expect better prospects from its other building material segments (significant turnaround at Guocera tiles division as well as additional capacity and better pricing in the fibreboard business) to offset the exclusion of Hume Concrete’s earnings from the group. In addition, Hume Cement currently does not contribute any earnings to HLI’s bottom line, with the exception of dividend income from the ICPS. • Prospective dividend yield of 4.7-5.2%. While there is no formal dividend policy, management guided that HLI will continue paying out at least 50-55% of its earnings (FY15F DPS of 27-30 sen). This implies a prospective yield of 4.7-5.2% after HLI’s share price goes-ex, assuming a RM1.08 share price adjustment. EARNINGS REVISION • No change to our earnings forecasts but we increase Narra’s 2015 net profit forecast by 23%. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION • Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of RM7.95, derived by adding: a) the implied value of Narra share at RM3.39/HLI share (HLI’s shareholders will be receiving 1,080 Narra shares for every 1,000 HLI shares), and b) a 20% holding company discount to our SOTP valuation of RM5.70 for HLI’s remaining assets. Our valuation methodology is unchanged and we revise Narra’s 2015 PE valuation from 17x to 18x. • 18x 2015F PE for Narra is reasonable. We deem an 18x (previously 17x) 2015F PE for Narra is fair, given that peers are trading at an average of 19x 2015F PE. Furthermore, we believe Hume Cement has better growth prospects as it plans to significantly raise production capacity in the intermediate term.

会派发高股息的“奶牛股”才是好股，12间高股息(平均7.51%)的公司一次看透透。

From:http://harryteo.blogspot.com/2014/07/76212751.html

什么是股息？股息就是在你买了一间公司的股票之后，公司就 会在1年派发几次给投资者/股东。上市的公司何其多，但是业绩良好又定时派发高股息的公司却不多。因此，很多喜欢长期持有的投资者都会选择奶水充足的“奶 牛股”。为什么会叫奶牛股呢？？因为公司就像奶牛一样，为投资者提供的股息就是奶水咯。派发越多股息的公司，就会受到越多投资者的追捧。

我老婆喜爱稳定的投资，所以我准备了这12支奶牛股给她参考。希望她不要辜负了我的一片苦心。请容许我“老张卖瓜，自卖自夸”。有我这么好的军师，老婆大人可以省却了许多的时间去做研究。也希望我的分享可以让更多人了解股市，从中赚取一些买菜钱或者私房钱。

Harry吹水分析站：

• REITS的股息一向来都很高，所以我把reits排出在外。
• 上面的公司我只持有Matrix，以前也曾经短期持有过Padini。个人认为这两支股都拥有不错的前景，大家不妨自己研究研究。
• 其实里面大部分的公司我都不是很熟悉，Atlan做什么我也不清楚。

• 不过CVIEW，ATLAN以及SHL这3间公司今天一度冲上了10大上升榜单。所以高股息的公司还是很受投资者欢迎的。
• 值得一提的是SHL在这个星期3天里上涨了80仙，也就是35.4%。真的是有够夸张，想知道原因请读今天的星洲日报。如果不是股价突然飞涨，SHL的股息可是高达8%以上。不过我觉得它的股价会在这个星期继续飞涨，让我们试目以待。
• BURSA的股息一向很大方，美中不足是股价却没有什么涨幅。
• 从上面的图表我们可以看到高股息的公司受到许多投资者的喜爱，所以股价的涨幅高于综合指数。今年12间公司股价的平均涨幅是18.19%，平均周息率是7.51%。
• 两者加起来就有25.7%了。虽然这种算法的准确度不高，但是总体来说还是非常吸引人的。

总结：

今年开始我积极在找高股息的成长股，这样才能快点达到财务自由。现在我的资料库里有250间公司的股价走势，股息数据。希望在这个RAYA假期可以增加到300间公司以上。然后在3年内可以收集完马来西亚股市900多间公司的数据，并improve我的数据库。共勉之。

美联储通讯社：美联储将持续收缩QE 加息争论愈演愈烈

素有“美联储通讯社”之称的《华尔街日报》记者Jon Hilsenrath发文称，美联储在即将召开的货币政策会议上可能会持续收缩QE，并讨论何时、以及如何提高利率。（更多全球财经资讯，请加微信号：wallstreetcn）
下周三(7月30日)，美联储将召开为期两天的货币政策会议，最终决议将于北京时间7月31日凌晨02:00公布。预计官员们将进一步缩减QE，市场预期购债规模将从上次的每月350亿美元缩减至每月250亿美元。
尽管美联储官员对缩减QE无异议，但在加息问题上仍存分歧。目前，针对2008年开始的近乎于零的超低利率合适提升尚未有明确的统一意见。不仅如此，官员们关于加息时点的争论愈加激烈。达拉斯联储主席Richard Fisher本月初曾表示，

我发现，自己与一些同事对政策的分歧越来越大。

包括美联储主席耶伦在内，Fisher的很多同事希望避免加息，除非他们确信经济已经具备坚实强大的基础。目前，大多数FOMC委员预计首次加息将在2015年某个时候。
本月早些时候，华尔街见闻网站提及，Fisher称美联储需要在明年年初“甚至更早”加息。芝加哥联储主席Evans认为，若有需要，短期利率接近 于零的水平甚至可能一直维持至2016年初。耶伦则称，“几乎所有”FOMC官员预期首次加息会在2015年某个时候，目前对于2015年年底联邦基金利 率的预期中位数值为“1%左右”。
Evans还强调，加息前通胀必须接近2%的目标。当前，美联储青睐的通胀衡量指标已经连续25个月低于2%的目标。而5月和6月的CPI数据被市场视为“暂时的”。此外，美联储关注的就业市场近期表现强劲，6月失业率触及6.1%水平。
Jon Hilsenrath指出，许多投资者预计美联储在明年年中前都不会加息。而包括耶伦在内的很多美联储官员强调，提高利率的时机取决于经济。
关于今年第二季度经济增长的最新预测值，以及过去三年的GDP增速修正数据也将于7月31日公布。这些数据可能影响官员看待经济的立场。
在本次会议上，官员们还将讨论当时机成熟时美联储的加息方式，衡量届时将使用何种政策工具及组合。
Jon Hilsenrath认为，已经摆上台面的问题之一还包括：美联储何时开始缩减规模达4.1万亿美元的资产负债表。
美联储将到期债券的收益购买新债券，以阻止资产负债表规模减少。但最终美联储将停止再投资行为。在最近一次会议上，多数官员同意在加息之后再迈出这一步。但该协议和其他方面的退出计划还没有最终确定

交易價20億 傳李嘉誠售大馬5商場 0 0

香港首富李嘉誠旗下長江集團所擁有的ARA亞洲金龍基金（ADFI）傳言已委任一家產業代理為旗下5間大馬購物商場尋找買家，交易價將超過20億令吉。
http://www.pocketimes.my/node/150

Half-year 2014 review on my NWC stocks.

As we approach July2014, market seems to be in euphoria status, and building up higher risk I think.
S&P in all time high nearing 2000 points, so is Dow Jones nearing 17,00. While having said so, both still above their 50MA, I've done some quick check on our KLCI also, which gives us same result. So for time being seems like everything is ok. Will there be any "Black Swan" effect soon?

In view of higher risk building, my strategy is simple. Stick to stock with highly defensive nature, almost recession proof, and also by using Net Working Capital way of stock picking, we are mostly safe when crisis hit. But you will be surprise also, human's emotional reaction will be extreme most of the time when market panic selling. This is the time when we go BIG! Thus, I would suggest building up reserve now, while stick to industry where I think can be recession proof:
Education-even in the toughest time, people will not give up education, because it is the way where one can change his own life and improve their living.
Utilities-Most utilities are recession proof due to its necessity nature, water, electricity are important factor for living.
Internet connection provider- It is a necessity in 21st century,almost the same as utilities.
General Insurance company-While people argued we can buy lesser insurance during tough times, but most of the countries nowadays enforce people to buy insurance for liabilities, such as car insurance, fire insurance. The basic insurance cover is made compulsory.






Now, lets review our performance for this 1H2014:
As you notice we have the purchase timing and prices in top right corner, below are timing of our purchases:
2013
Dec-ILB@0.72 ;PMCorp@0.24

2014
Jan-PMCorp@0.23
Feb-ILB@0.775, OSK@1.62

Apr-Pmcorp@0.215

As of latest prices, ILB traded RM0.845(+9% from the highest price we bought @RM0.775);PMCorp traded RM0.23(almost no gain or losses,luckily average some at RM0.215 during April time) ; OSK traded RM1.88(+16% from RM1.62)

I would consider myself lucky on above results, as market has been building up higher risk. I actually expect some losses to come near term as I thought the market will come with some correction after almost a year of non-stop bull run. I barely see any huge correction from the market, this is the most surprising thing I've ever experienced. Probably partly due to our Ringgit:Dollar strengths at current 3.20?

Anyway, I'm currently monitoring a few companies: Jobstreet, GBH, Keladi, LCTH, FACBInd.
I will share more on Jobstreet in near future, most of these companies are net cash, but not really attractive like ILB,PMCorp where net cash per share after total liabilities is even higher than their current market price. The same goes with FACBInd, however as I've mentioned earlier in other posts, I have some concern over how the management manage the funds as they have been using the money to fund another related company Kbunai which I do not have preferences.  Yet, I might review this is near future once I can get better picture.

I will review GBH-Keladi soon as the news is already out today and there will be most action in near future I think and they will be interesting.
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For dividend:
1。FPI-Div yield around 6%, 已经稳定派息好几年了。
2。Marco-Div yield around 9%,过去两年较高。不过应该可以稳定派4%
3。Parkson-不是派现金，但是派股票。 3：50，换算回来大概6%dividend.

For Asset play:
1.GSB Group-Sinma injecting property development into company? Will pump share price up a lot.
2.Mulpha-lots of land in Johor
3.Jobst-Buy after giving special div of RM2.40 or above.

Once in a lifetime? JOBST-ALL IN!

 http://networkingcapital.blogspot.com/

I have monitored Jobstreet.com since 2 years back, but there's no good entry point for me. As this stock is actively monitored by most fund managers. When opportunity arise, the price is quickly taken. I can say its P/E has all the while be around 20.
But recently SEEK's offering of takeover Jobstreet Pte Ltd, which includes most of Jobstreet.com sites in Asean countries offer us an opportunity to relook.

First, the offering is around RM1,740mil, company offer around RM1,700mil payback to shareholders via dividend. According to proforma IV , it will become around 707,953,000 share outstanding after some share offering to gain back Jobstreet filipino's minority, and also some ESOS shares.

Thus, by calculation, it is near RM2.40 on this dividend paying back to shareholders after the deal goes through. Recently, it has announced another dividend of 0.5sens.

Well, the question lies in where is the golden goose? Look at what are assets left over after takeover offering by SEEK.

Do some studies, refer to pg100.

Actually, Wisma Jobstreet bring my attention most, because it is around prime area, and it is physical object I can see and touch. Wisma Jobstreet in Sultan Ismail valued RM14mil during 2011. So by dividing RM14mil/707.95mil(proforma IV S/O)=RM0.02/share

Building alone worth us the cost of investing now @ RM2.42. Look at listed companies shares they own:-

I have done some background check on their prices and also earning quality of these companies.Out of all, 104 Corporation in Taiwan provide stable profit, same to 1010 printing Group. A quick study on prices, I've valued all these companies near RM129mil. Dividing this to Proforma IV, RM0.18 is my valuation on assets. Also, 1 thing to note is Cinderella Media is undergoing some corporate action of dividend in species to distribute their 1010 printing shareholding. Also, Cinderella Media's recent profit is deteriorating as well, thus I would rather not give it any value moving forward.

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One important thing to note is company is not allowed to be involved in the same industry of Jobstreet.com-which is recruitment and some related businesses once the deal went through for 2 years. Thus the minor Jobstreet.com I think either will have to cease operation or be sold soon.

And company will fall into PN17 for sure without any core businesses while they have sometimes to find a new core businesses for the company. The name "Jobstreet" cannot be used also in future as SEEK bought the copyright of Jobstreet also.

But looking back at the founders' profile, I have confident this management can create more value to shareholders in future. And to be honest, I think there will be nothing to lose even buying at current price. If deal does not go through, we still keep a growing company, expanding into the regional almost covering whole Asia except in China which is no present yet, with some minor efforts in Japan, Thailand etc.

If deals goes through, you have the building as the back-up. If management fails to seek any core business(which I think impossible), they will sell all things and return the funds to shareholders. Building alone worth RM0.02. So it is almost risk free now.

Most encouraging part came on below announcement:-
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1673365
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1665889

"Subject to an agreement on any adjusted terms of the JobStreet SSA with SEEK Asia Investments Pte Ltd and fulfilment of all conditions precedent under the JobStreet SSA, the Proposed Disposals are expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2014."

"The Board had on 12 May 2014 announced that the CCS is further investigating the competitive impact of the Proposed Disposals in Singapore and entering into a Phase 2 review.

The CCS has on its media release dated 14 May 2014 announced that a Phase 2 review can take up to 24 weeks to complete and at the end of the Phase 2 review will decide whether to issue a favourable or unfavourable decision.

As at the date of this announcement, the Phase 2 review is still ongoing and is not anticipated to be completed by 1 July 2014. Accordingly, without prejudice to JobStreet's rights under the JobStreet SSA, JobStreet and SEEK Asia Investments Pte Ltd are in discussions to agree on an extension to the Long Stop Date under the JobStreet SSA and an adjustment to the consideration given the improved operational performance of JobStreet since a valuation of MYR1,730 million was agreed.

Subject to agreement on any adjusted terms of the JobStreet SSA with SEEK Asia Investments Pte Ltd and fulfillment of all conditions precedent under the JobStreet SSA, the Proposed Disposals are now expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2014. Further developments on the above matter will be announced to Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in due course."