全球最大對沖基金的成功秘訣

最近日本有機構做了一項調查，訪問了日本女性，分析結果後，歸納出「日本男士九大最吸引職業」，No.1是壽司師傅，因為男士們必須經過多年的磨練才能正式成為壽司師傅，所以這種男人必然是認真積極、一絲不苟，的好男人，另外No.2是拯救國家的海員，甚至是飛機師。

聽說港女最欣賞的男士職業iBanker，我家的iBanker是一個超級超級大悶蛋，一D都唔型，可能D港女睇得科幻片多，尤其報紙上的吹水友亂吹，講到一般iBanker都是晚晚泡老蘭，晚晚要吃鮮鮑魚。

要在市場中賺錢，你必須獨立思考，並保持謙卑。必須獨立思考，因為人云亦云無法讓你賺錢，眾所周知的事情早就體現在價格上。然而無論何時，與市場共識對著幹，出錯的概率都是很大的，因而你必須Humble。蘭桂坊教父盛智文都滴走不沾啦。

我認為，做DJ及對沖基金經理係最型的職業，因為兩者都可以做到80歲，Uncle Ray打碟時，簡直型L到冇朋友。至於iBanker及Hedge Fund Manager，咪搞錯，很多時表面上的iBanker只是Sale屎。

投資銀行我想大家或多或少在那個報章雜誌上聽說過，投資銀行基本上是市場上大部份金融商品和金融服務的生產者，大概分成投資銀行（Investment Banking）、資產管理（Asset Management）跟再保險集團（Reinsurance Group）這個三部分，那相對的資產管理公司就變成是使用者，也就是說它有多很多到處向投資人募集來的錢，再決定要購買投資銀行，或者是他金融服務的生產者提供給他的各種服務。

全球最大對沖基金是Bridgewater Associates，資產規模達到1650億美元，CEO是Ray Dalio，他一直認為，無論有自己有多對，他都聽取異議，並找尋那些最聰明的腦袋，那些不認同他看法的人，以瞭解他們持異議的原因。日復日，年復年，這麼做不僅增加了他正確的機會。

求同存異是一門藝術。精通這門藝術的人都明白，自己總有出錯的時候，努力去瞭解他人的想法，不僅僅是結論，更是背後的原因，對於確保自己不會犯錯是有價值的。可惜，支那人懂這門藝術的太少，畢竟，從邏輯上來說，當兩個人出現異見時，其中一人肯定錯了。為什麼你不想去確定，這個人不會是你呢？

下面列舉幾位我認為最型又最賺錢的對沖基金經理出來，他們的經營理念，己經不是一盤生意，而是哲學加上藝術。

Steve Cohen

2014年收入：13億美元

Steve Cohen是史上最成功的對沖基金經理之一。當他的公司SAC Capital Advisors對內幕交易的指控認罪後，他本可以關閉這家公司，但是現在他卻依然頂住。Steve退還了外部投資者的資金，現在通過Family Office（Point72 Asset Management）管理著自己的財富。Steve是曼哈頓服裝區的一位服裝製造商的兒子。當他還在Wharton讀書的時候，就曾經從學費中拿出7000美元開了一個股票帳戶，最終摸索出了一套快打連髮式的交易風格，為他在進軍華爾街後贏得了好評。1992年，他自己出資2000萬美元創立了SAC。

Ray Dalio

2014年收入：12億美元

上面說了，Ray Dalio創立了世界上最大的對沖基金公司Bridgewater Associates，該公司旗下管理著價值1650億美元的資產。2014年，許多宏觀基金舉步維艱，他的Pure Alpha宏觀對沖基金扣除各項費用後的回報率達到了8.7%。

George Soros

2014年收入：12億美元

這個阿伯不用介紹，這位大慈善家在2011年退還了他管理的所有外部資金，但他的Family Office Soros Fund Management依然作為一家大型對沖基金運營著，2014年，的回報率約為8%。

William Ackman

2014年收入：11億美元

William在2014年頗受我關注。他是對沖基金公司Pershing Square Capital Management的創始人，目前他的公司管理著180億美元左右的資金。2014年，他的對沖基金獲得了37.2%的淨回報率，是近年來的最好表現，而且它到來的時機也很重要。2013年，William Ackman的基金跌到PK，2014年，大多數其他對沖基金經理沒有跑贏大市，但是他的表現卻爆燈，因為他重倉肉毒桿菌製造商Allergan，這筆交易可謂極具創意，也頗具爭議，因為涉及幾間大藥廠敵意收購，令他的基金漁人得利。

James Simons

2014年收入：11億美元

James的故事簡直是Imitation Game圖靈的真人版，他畢業於MIT麻省理工，從業之初是一位理論數學家，在越南戰爭期間曾為國防部進行密碼破譯工作，戰後他成為了紐約州立大學石溪分校（SUNY-Stony Brook）的數學系主任。1982年，他創立了Renaissance Technologies，公司總部設在紐約州East Setauket。這支基金採用電腦運算模型，在高流動性的股票中尋寶。

到2010年退休，目前他公司的資產管理規模達260億美元。但是，現年76歲的他依然退而不休，他向自己的基金會（Simons Foundation）捐贈了超過10億美元的資金。此外，他還擔任著非盈利數學教育機構Math for America的主席，並支持自閉症研究。

Seth Klarman

2014年收入：2億美元

他也是投資界傳奇人物，公司是Baupost，位於波士頓。Baupost目前管理著285億美元的資產，也是全球最大的對沖基金之一。2014年，Klarman的對沖基金淨回報率高達8%。

Klarman是巴菲特的超級粉絲，同樣被視為價值投資的專家。他的著作Margin of Safety被投資者奉為圭臬，在Amazon上售價高達4,000美元，二手的也要US$1899。他的慈善活動專注於科學研究和推廣音樂教育。此外，他也是以色列事務方面的主要支持者。他擁有以色列網上英文報刊《以色列時報》Times of Israel，是我每天必睇的資訊站。

另外還有許多許多好型的Hedge Fund佬，包括Michael Platt, Daniel Loeb, David Shaw……..不能盡錄。很多人覺得金融行業一定需要數學好或者特別聰明，其實不然。更多的時候，是需要你有一個正確的對世界的認知，人和人最大的差異不在於知識，而在於三觀的高低。即是世界觀、人生觀和價值觀。

當然，你要是覺得讀書無用的，不願意去學習知識，大概你的三觀也是很低的，咪晚晚泡Volar, Magnum, Lux, Angel Shares囉。

其實，做DJ也是不錯的選擇。你睇下佢地幾型。(上、中、下Parov Stelar, Nicolas Jaar, Stephane Pompougnac)

What will be taxed with GST? - REBECCA SHAMASUNDARI OF IMONEY

By: REBECCA SHAMASUNDARI OF IMONEY KUALA LUMPUR: Goods and Services Tax (GST) will be implemented effective April 1, 2015 and the rate is fixed at 6%. Sales tax of 10% and service tax of 6% will be replaced with GST. Under GST, most of the goods and services (except basic necessities) will be charged at every stage of the supply chain – even the ones that was previously not charged with Sales and Service Tax (SST). This means we will likely be paying more to purchase or use these goods and services, which were not taxed previously. 1. Credit card The RM50 government tax charged annually on credit cards and the RM25 fee for supplementary cards, will be abolished from April 1, 2015 when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is implemented. Instead, the 6% GST will apply on the credit card’s annual fees – which can range from RM70 to RM1,000 or more annually, depending on the type of card. However, there will be no GST charges if the annual fee is waived, for example for free-for-life credit cards or those with annual fees waived, with stipulated minimum spending or transactions on a monthly or yearly basis. To reflect the changes, the GST charged will be reflected as a separate item in the credit card statement. However, purchases will be reflected as a total amount inclusive of GST. There is some good news though, loyalty points or cash rebates will be given based on the 6% GST paid when using the credit card for retail purchases. 2. Books and e-books The standard 6% GST will be imposed on all types of books except for dictionaries, encyclopedias, newspapers, texts, references, works and religious books. These books will be zero-rated and not be subjected to GST. Local e-book suppliers like e-sentral and MPHonline will also be charging GST whereas foreign firms such as Google Play and Apple iBookstore would not be. 3. Housing GST will also see basic construction materials such as cement, bricks and sand being taxed the standard 6% GST rate for both residential and commercial properties. Currently, these raw materials are not taxed under the existing SST. Heavy machineries such as cranes will be taxed too. Property developers normally do not buy such heavy machineries but rent them from other contractors – and it typically is factored into the construction cost. Steel, bricks, and sand make up 44% of the construction cost and with these being charged GST, the cost of building a property is inevitably going to increase. Property companies expect GST to result in a maximum of 2.6% increase in house prices. When the GST is implemented in April, residential property including SoHo (small office/home office) will be exempted. However, commercial properties including SoFo (small office/flexible office) and SoVo (small office/virtual office) would be subject to the 6% GST. 4. Fuel RON95, Diesel and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) will be exempted from GST implementation. However, RON97 will be subjected to the new 6% GST. 5. Electricity A household will have 6% GST charged to the electricity bill for usage above 300 units. 6. Used cars Currently, used cars are not subjected to SST and is not a GST zero rated item either. Therefore the car industry predicts that used cars will be subjected to an extra 6% tax after the implementation of GST in April. 7. Banking services The RM1 MEPS fee charged when we withdraw from another bank’s ATM will increase to RM1.06. No GST will be charged if you make a withdrawal from your own bank’s ATM. Similarly, other services offered by the bank, such as money transfers (e.g. cashier’s order and demand draft), telegraphic transfers, money exchange, loan, cheque, credit card, and debit card will see 6% GST charged to its service, commission or subscription fee. 8. Tuition fees Beginning April, 6% GST will be imposed on tuition fees, as tuition centres are not categorised under educational institutions. 9. Beauty services The price of beauty services like manicure, and hair and facial treatments will be subjected to 6% GST too. Massage services are also chargeable with the GST if the annual turnover for such businesses is RM500,000 and above. Aside from beauty services, cosmetics and other products for skin, hair and body care will also be charged GST. However, operators registered to implement the GST will be able to lower their costs by claiming the input tax credit for premises rental fees, electricity costs and equipment purchased to carry out the services. Input tax refers to the GST paid by businesses on the purchase of goods and services used to perform their businesses. Beauty products sold at airports as duty-free items will not be subjected to GST. 10. Insurance fees All insurance policies except for life insurance will be charged 6% GST from April. GST would also impact all traditional and investment-linked policies which had medical, critical illness or personal accident benefits attached. For traditional policies, the GST is imposed on the premium, while for investment-linked policies, it is charged on the insurance charges. For investment-linked policies, insurance charges will escalate with age because of higher insurance charges. While it is still not clear how much prices will increase, or in some instances, decrease, it is prudent to know your exempted and zero-rated items to avoid opportunists merchants who may be profiteering on GST. With less than a month away before GST is actually implemented, it is wise to understand how GST will affect both our daily or seasonal spending. This will help us to plan our spending ahead, to minimise the negative effect of GST. For more, click on www.iMoney.my

Portfolio2015-updated 09 March 2015

Stock Cost Basis $CASH 3,278.05 BJCORP 6,241.87 BJCORP-WB 1,660.50 FABER 5,455.64 GSB 14,283.53 JCY 11,025.30 MINTYE 11,526.95 MSC 12,929.77 NYLEX 2,761.83 PJDEV-WC 2,686.81 POHUAT 14,633.98 SUPERMX 8,570.12 TEOSENG 5,505.65 TEOSENG-WA 0.00

Stock Market Value $CASH 3,278.05 BJCORP 6,600.00 BJCORP-WB 1,750.00 FABER 6,200.00 GSB 14,250.00 JCY 14,400.00 MINTYE 12,900.00 MSC 13,700.00 NYLEX 2,875.00 PJDEV-WC 2,775.00 POHUAT 22,200.00 SUPERMX 10,300.00 TEOSENG 8,055.00 TEOSENG-WA 603.75

Stock Cost Basis Market Value $CASH 3,278.05 3,278.05 BJCORP 6,241.87 6,600.00 BJCORP-WB 1,660.50 1,750.00 FABER 5,455.64 6,200.00 GSB 14,283.53 14,250.00 JCY 11,025.30 14,400.00 MINTYE 11,526.95 12,900.00 MSC 12,929.77 13,700.00 NYLEX 2,761.83 2,875.00 PJDEV-WC 2,686.81 2,775.00 POHUAT 14,633.98 22,200.00 SUPERMX 8,570.12 10,300.00 TEOSENG 5,505.65 8,055.00 TEOSENG-WA 0.00 603.75

Stock	Cost Basis	%	Market Value	%	Gain/Loss	%
$CASH	3,278.05	3.37%	3,278.05	2.81%	0	0.00%
BJCORP	6,241.87	6.42%	6,600.00	5.35%	358.13	5.74%
BJCORP-WB	1,660.50	1.71%	1,750.00	1.42%	89.5	5.39%
FABER	5,455.64	5.61%	6,200.00	4.68%	744.36	13.64%
GSB	14,283.53	14.68%	14,250.00	12.25%	-33.53	-0.23%
JCY	11,025.30	11.33%	14,400.00	9.45%	3374.7	30.61%
MINTYE	11,526.95	11.85%	12,900.00	9.89%	1373.05	11.91%
MSC	12,929.77	13.29%	13,700.00	11.09%	770.23	5.96%
NYLEX	2,761.83	2.84%	2,875.00	2.37%	113.17	4.10%
PJDEV-WC	2,686.81	2.76%	2,775.00	2.30%	88.19	3.28%
POHUAT	14,633.98	15.04%	22,200.00	12.55%	7566.02	51.70%
SUPERMX	8,570.12	8.81%	10,300.00	7.35%	1729.88	20.19%
TEOSENG	5,505.65	5.66%	8,055.00	4.72%	2549.35	46.30%
TEOSENG-WA	0.00	0.00%	603.75	0.00%	603.75	In,fin,ity.aN%

意外的货币战争

本文作者为PIMCO前CEO Mohameda El-Erian。华尔街见闻翻译整理。点击阅读原文。
全球金融危机已过去六年有余，新兴经济体和发达经济体的央行仍在持续空前宽松的货币政策。这条不寻常的路到底还要走多久？

上个月，澳大利亚、印度、墨西哥等国家降低了利率。中国降低了银行准备金率，丹麦开始实行负利率。

即使最为强调稳定的国家也做出了意外的调整。降息之外，瑞士央行意外地放弃了瑞士法郎兑欧元的汇率下限。几天后，新加坡也意外地调整了外汇政策。

更重要的是，欧洲央行承诺实施规模庞大的开放式资产购买计划。尽管有越来越多的警告称，货币刺激政策不但难以推动持续增长，还会推高金融市场的风险偏好，威胁到经济稳定和繁荣；欧洲央行还是决定推出QE。

虽然美国经济比其他发达国家都要强劲，但是美联储在谈到加息时也表示，需要保持耐心。如果就业机会增加伴随着工资增长，那恐怕这种稳定将难以持续。

众多央行新一轮举措反映了对经济增长的持续担忧。尽管此前的货币刺激总量大的令人难以置信，但全球产出依然低于潜在水平，且产出可能走低。

更糟糕的是，疲软的需求和巨额债务使欧元区和日本的通缩预期升温。普通家庭预期商品价格下降，就会推迟他们的消费。公司则会推迟投资，使得经济陷入难以逃脱的下滑通道。

如果产生影响的只有疲弱需求和高债务，那最近的一轮货币刺激就可以直截了当。可惜并非如此。影响经济增长的障碍在很大程度上依旧没有解决，央行没有办法凭一己之力解决这些问题。

首先，央行难以推动结构性的调整，比如基础设施投资、劳动力市场改革和促进经济增长的财政预算改革。这些都推动经济复苏所不可或缺的。不仅如此，央行也难以解决总需求的不平衡，即企业、家庭和政府间消费能力和意愿的差距。此外，央行也无法解决部分区域和人群的高负债。而正是高负债阻碍了新投资和增长。

因此，货币政策对于促进经济增长、稳定通货膨胀、和促进金融稳定而言，效果越来越难以预期。央行被逼上了一条非常不理想的政策道路——因为他们的宽松措施可能会引发不宣而战的货币战争。除了美联储，不少央行都担心本币升值将影响国内企业竞争力。事实上，越来越多的央行正在积极地推动本币贬值本国货币。

世界上最为重要的三大经济体——欧元区、日本和美国，在经济表现和货币政策问题上的差异已越来越大。这给世界其余国家带来不少困惑，尤其是哪些开放的小型经济体。事实上，新加坡和瑞士意外的举动就是对这种差异的直接回应。 丹麦决定停止销售政府债券以降低利率，对抗克朗升值，也是出于同样的原因。

当然，并不是所有的币种都可以在同一时间贬值。当前的贬值大潮尽管不是很理想，但很可能持续一段时间，只要以下两个条件能够满足。

第一个条件是美国愿意继续容忍美元的大幅升值。美国的公司已经频频警告美元走强对其收益的负面影响，更不用说外来游客的下降以及不断恶化的贸易逆差。美国是否会放任美元升值是个不定因素。

尽管如此，只要美国能保持经济和就业机会持续增长，美元升值的负面影响应该不会引发强烈的政治回应。毕竟，外国经济活动对美国GDP贡献甚微。事实上，美国与世界各国复杂的贸易关系将企业和家庭放在生产和消费的等式两边。这是的贸易保护主义在美国难得人心。

当前的经济基本面和金融市场的风险水平并不匹配，金融市场的参与者是否愿意承担这一风险，是决定全球货币贬值潮是否会持续的另一因素。作为当下金融市场实质上最好的朋友，央行在努力推高市场的风险偏好，这并非易事。但是，考虑到可能引发的种种危险，各国央行在这点上只能成功不能失败。

不过，央行最终仍需退出刺激政策。现在的问题是，戒除货币刺激的毒瘾有多难；全球货币战是否会加速央行退出。

CLSA Fengshui Chart 2015

The Year of the Goat will bring slow improvement but also uncertainty for the Hong Kong stock market and economy, according to investment bank CLSA's annual Feng Shui Index.

The goat's characteristics of slow, steady and hesitant movement will replace last year's galloping horse, CLSA says in its 12th annual tongue-in-cheek report, entitled 'Capricorn Rising'.

(CLICK ON CHARTS TO EXPAND)

Hong Kong will start to pull out of a long period of bad luck that coincided with the handover in 1997, riding along on the mainland's coat-tails as the country is set to enter an eighth 20-year lucky period in 2004, according to the index. That bodes well for China-related stocks, said Kenny Lau, a technology analyst at CLSA.

'China will see very good luck in the next 20 years,' Mr Lau said. 'You must buy China - China, China, China.' On the other hand, 'Hong Kong will not be totally out of the woods until 2007'.

To compile the index, the bank consulted three feng shui masters to come up with predictions on how the Hang Seng Index will perform and which stocks to pick, along with more humorous predictions on politicians and famous people. Mr Lau warned: 'As I say every year, don't take this index too seriously.'

The index began as a way of filling space on CLSA's Lunar New Year cards to clients in 1992 and has since become an annual event, with Mr Lau and colleagues taking to the stage in the China Club yesterday dressed in traditional Chinese robes with the bank's blue and yellow colours.

On a more serious note, CLSA's chief economist, Jim Walker, gave his year-ahead forecast for Hong Kong, saying: 'We are much more optimistic about Hong Kong than the feng shui masters are.' Dr Walker expects growth to pick up this year, with gross domestic product expanding 4.6 per cent and 8.2 per cent next year as exports continue to boom and business investment recovers.

Meanwhile, deflation, which hit its 50th month in December, 'begins to disappear', he said.

Mr Lau said earth and water elements were prominent in the Year of the Goat, a bad sign for the housing market and developer stocks.

'Water is going to turn earth into mud. That's why we don't expect property prices to rise,' he said. Gold and fire elements 'are okay', he said, so 'it is no problem to invest' in financial and bank stocks.