Wednesday, August 5, 2015

一带一路2

絲綢之路,就是讀中史一定會讀到,由長安起,經武威、張掖、酒泉、敦隍、西進中亞細亞入歐,1980年,日本NHK電視台向中國發出探索絲綢之路的邀請,把這條線走一遍,拍攝了一輯史詩式的紀錄片,NHK因而成為第一家進入中國西部腹地進行紀錄片拍攝的境外媒體,並找來喜多郎作曲。

當時日中合拍的「絲綢之路」曾在世界範圍內引起很大反響,它的拍攝作為一種國家行為,在規模上代表了當時我們所能達到的紀錄片製作的最高水準,中國政府為保障拍攝的順利進行採取了一系列高規格的措施,例如開通鐵路專線,甚至是出動軍隊。 絲綢之路上的神秘,震撼了全世界,現代人的足跡已將其中幾處踩踏為旅遊熱線,於是NHK又在2005年再次邀請中央台,再次聯手踏上絲綢之路,來過Season 2 

什麼是一帶一路戰略?201397日,在對中亞的訪問中,習近平首次提出共「絲綢之路經濟帶」的戰略構想;201393日,李克強總理強調「鋪就面向東盟的21世紀海上絲綢之路」。它們加在一起,就是「一帶一路」。

這個在全新的經貿合作關係對你我荷包有什麼好處?從國內來看,它貫穿中國東部、中部和西部;向橫看,我們主要的沿海港口城市都將從更加緊密的國際貿易中受益。另外,國際貿易的延展性還將把發展的紅利不斷向中亞、東盟延伸。

Yes,東盟。

根據我們的分析員研究,政府很有可能在西部這些省區建設鐵路、公路、口岸、民航等基礎設施。這些通路的重點連通對象都在國外,將是中亞、南亞、東南亞地區,在這裡面,我認為中老、中泰、中緬、中巴、中吉、中烏等鐵路項目可能會被現屆政府優先考慮。

和絲綢之路經濟帶相連接的國家,比如巴基斯坦、孟加拉、緬甸等大部分都是新興市場國家和窮國,它們基礎設施非常落後。所以,第一,它們沒有現成的和絲綢之路經濟帶通路相對接的交通設施;第二,它們本國其他的基礎設施也很落後。這意味著什麼?

當絲綢之路經濟帶建設交通基礎設施的時候,實際上是在國內和國外同時進行建設。而且我認為,還有機會參與到當地其他基建工程中。這就是強國對外輸出過剩水泥、基建建設、和偷工減料能力的方式。強國過去對歐美日出口iPhone,現在透過開闢新的貿易路線和產品,可對巴基斯坦、緬甸等國輸出水泥等過剩產能。
各位再想想,建這些交通基礎設施只是為了消化水泥等過剩產能嗎?如果是這樣,那麼我們就是在製造更新、更大的過剩產能、更大的偷工減料。既然建了這些交通運輸通道,就必須高效地利用起來。實際上,這些基礎設施的建設本身,就是為了拉動經濟增長和就業,提升相關國家的經濟發展和民生水準。

怎麼做?「陸上絲綢之路」最主要的貢獻就是,為中國的經濟發展提供了兩個新的競爭優勢:陸路、鐵路運輸將成為未來中國國際貿易的主導力量,這些在費用、運輸時間等方面性價比相對較高的運輸方式,將為中國不斷提高的生產成本減壓。
一個貨櫃的運輸成本降低近一半的意義是什麼嗎?這是強國製造業前所未有的優勢,而這種優勢是過去所沒有想到的,可以置新加坡貨櫃業於死地。現在,透過歐亞之間的火車運輸,比較優勢甚至超過飛機、貨船,開啟了一個所謂的火車 運河運輸革命,這將大幅降低運輸成本。

以重慶為例來講一講。20146月,重慶市政府宣佈「新絲綢之路」渝新歐鐵路開通三年多來的首趟滿載列車正式從波蘭出發,經過11178公里的路程抵達重慶。這條鐵路線路是怎麼來的呢?20105月,重慶市和多個國家的鐵道部門商量,讓一個40英呎的貨櫃從波蘭運到重慶的運費,從11000美元降到6000美元。


怎麼做到的?透過三部曲。第一部曲,便捷通關、統一貨運、統一貨單、一次通關、一次查驗,這個流程讓原本的11000美元降到了8500美元。第二部曲,中國同哈薩克、俄羅斯和德國一起,成立了一個新型的物流公司,各自按照軌道的長度入股。由於國家利益牽扯到裡面,所以各國就非常主動地解決了寬軌和窄軌的問題,又使得運費在原來的8500美元的基礎上降低了1000美元,降到了7500美元。第三部曲,過去的火車運輸都是單向運輸,送貨物出去,回來可能空車回來。而2014612日開出的波蘭至重慶火車,去是滿載,回來也是滿載,使得運輸成本大幅降低,終於降到6000美元。
我知你英文好,仔細看看下面
馬雲在德國漢諾威說了什麼,這個是勢,人生捉到一兩個勢你就會脫貧。讀者A問我一問題:「請問你如何看待越南這市場呢?」我這樣回答:「我們沒有任何投資,人脈,政府關係在越南,所以不敢比任何意見,但是在泰緬我們就比較有把握,因為深耕了二三十年,去年有很多篇關於泰緬投資的報道,閣下可翻查。」

讀者B又問我一問題:「緬甸泰國政治因素會有concern?緬甸會否好啲?

Well,當然有concern,但是係positive side. 而且都是來自泰國及緬甸政府的內部消息,我也不敢講太多,有D野,目前真係要收埋食,我食完頭圍各位才吃二圍,立法界制衣界別有條懵佬,以為在仰光可以拿到地,帶了幾十人去起什麼香港制衣工業園,點去乜七都欏唔到,冇曬面,後來又以為可以食鋪雞糊輸入緬甸外傭,心諗雞糊都好,點知又是食詐糊,香港有間iBank就醒,同我們私下傾,好Deal咪一起玩Lor(未完)

索罗斯的反射理论

索羅斯在他早年所寫的一本書The Alchemy of Finance說出他判斷全球金融走勢的方法。

他說,他個人從不做數字研究(那是助理的事),每天起床後,他把各國權威性報紙平攤在一張大桌子上,一邊吃早餐一邊隨手翻閱,一直到他「悟出一個感覺」,那天的操作決策才會浮現,如果哪一天翻了兩小時還翻不出感覺,那麼也許那一天就不應該做決策。索羅斯從金融操作上賺了那麼多錢,但他從來不先設目的,而是隨著開放性的感悟走;對他來講,任何預設的目的,都會把事情看窄了。

感悟力,若用英文來表述,就是making senses

我跑馬都是一樣,把馬經平攤在一張大桌子上,一邊吃早餐一邊隨手翻閱,看看王登平寫乜,無敵馬神Leo寫乜,潘頓有幾倍,若用英文來表述,就是making senses。若用中文來表述,就是贏就贏X到開巷,輸就連老婆都唔敢講。

像索羅斯這樣複雜,而且多面的有影響力的人物,最大的特徵是,他既可以出現在財經版,也可以出現在哲學版,還可以出現在娛樂版。

首先,是媒體財經版關注索羅斯宣佈退休不到幾年後出手,這次的對象既不是英鎊,也不是東亞新興經濟體貨幣,而是日元。201211月份以來,日元對美元匯率直跌30%,從開始便沽空日元的索羅斯在這次投機中淨賺10億美元。

不僅市場大部分機構投資者,即使日本金融監管局也直到20132月份才察覺到索羅斯所持有的空倉。這位金融大鱷在貨幣市場上的又一次大獲全勝,再次印證了其寶刀未老,索羅斯投資思想的核心,反射理論(Theory Of Reflexivity)又一次成為了市場的關注熱點。

跟住,還在娛樂版看到了索羅斯,他的前任女友起訴他沒有如約付給她一套位於紐約的房子,而是把房子送給另外一條女,索羅斯則反訴她打阿伯,用燈具打他的手臂,

索羅斯自己則常常把自己視為哲學家,投資只不過是他實踐相關哲學思想的一個過程之一。

反射理論是索羅斯在投資市場上的廣受關注的最重要武器之一,也是索羅斯最為人們耳熟能詳的標誌之一,其在對沖基金中彪炳的戰績也為反身性理論增添了神秘色彩,他管理的量子基金在1969-2011年的42年間年化收益率近20%,與西蒙斯等基於量化投資技術實現的持續性業績不同,在他的投資歷史中,經常出現引發全球金融市場震盪的大對決。強大如英倫銀行面臨索羅斯的貨幣攻勢,在不足半個月的時間裡,英國不得不在這場貨幣戰爭中扯白旗。索羅斯也因此一戰成名,由之前的華爾街的金融天才變成全球聞名的金融大鱷;他不再是一名簡單發現投資機會的基金經理,而是能夠左右一國金融局勢的金融巨頭。

1997年東亞金融危機的爆發恰恰印證了這一點。首當其衝者 ---- 泰銖,即使泰國央行面對索羅斯的攻擊而事前做了大量準備工作,也不得不放棄原先的固定匯率制度,印尼、馬來西亞等國也無一倖免。

反射理論出自於1987年索羅斯的The Alchemy of Finance一書,書中對其多年來金融市場縱橫所奉行的金融理論基礎及投資策略進行了詳細的描述,其中的核心就是反射理論。反射理論指的是投資者與金融市場的互動關係,投資者根據自己獲得的資訊和對市場的認知形成對市場的預期,並付諸投資行動,這種行動改變了市場原有發展方向,就會反射出一種新的市場形態,從而形成新的資訊,讓投資者產生新的投資信念,並繼續改變金融市場的走向。

由於投資者不可能獲得完整的資訊,且投資者會因個別問題影響其對市場的認知,令他對市場預期產生不同的意見,索羅斯把這種不同的意見解釋為投資偏見,並認為投資偏見是金融市場的根本動力。當投資偏見零散的時候,其對金融市場的影響力是很小的,當投資偏見在互動中不斷強化並產生群體影響時就會產生蝴蝶效應,從而推動市場朝單一方向發展,最終必然反轉。

油價由去年跌跌跌到一仆一碌時,我們便一路買2883,石油輸出國組織OPEC更聲稱油價跌到$20也不減產,之後我便叫研究團隊一路分析整個中東局勢、什麼是一路一帶,什麼是亞投行,就是過去一週刊於「老占的博客」的部份內容。

在投資世界,任何一個時間點上都有不計其數的回饋環路,但所有的回饋環路都可以劃分為兩類:正回饋環路與負反饋環路。正回饋環路強化了當前盛行的誤讀,負反饋環路則起到了扭轉的作用。

大多數情況下,這兩個類型的回饋環路會相互抵消。只有在少數情況下,正回饋環路的作用才會超過負反饋環路,從而產生泡沫。正回饋環路和負反饋環路相互交織,使市場處於劇烈的波動和不穩定狀態,形成「盛衰」序列的週期性迴圈。

在索羅斯看來,投資的盈利之道在於基於反身性原理的思維框架推斷出金融市場中即將發生的預料之外的情況,判斷未來金融市場的盛衰拐點,逆潮流而動。

我用賭馬描述,大家會易明D,當莫雷拉大熱時,買潘頓;當潘頓大熱時,買莫雷拉;昨天莫雷拉開飛大熱,頭場潘頓整隻十倍Win,贏錢就係咁簡單。

索羅斯認為金融市場的所有參與者都是非理性的,例如我,這樣市場整體上的混亂性、無序性及不可測性,今晚夜期升600點,由於參與者由於無法對影響到證券走勢的所有因素全部獲知,以及自身認識上的主觀性,使得參與者投資決策的制定主要取決於對當前金融環境以及發展趨勢的預判,也即參與者對證券市場存在客觀性的偏見。

我們不妨根據索羅斯的投資決策框架來對此次沽空日元的交易進行賽後檢討,首先,匯率問題本身就是反射理論的極佳案例,因為本國幣匯率上升會減少貿易順差,貿易順差會影響Yen升值;反之亦然。

而在匯率問題上,政府的目標和採取的措施就構成了反身性迴圈中的認知功能和操縱功能,而對於日元的匯率目標,在2012年年底,即使日本大選尚未開始,安倍晉三及其他候選人都表示要會採取寬鬆的貨幣政策,日本政府作為市場中主要的參與者,政府的貨幣寬鬆行為將導致日元的貶值,日元在危機以來的持續升值、以及一度出現的貿易逆差,都是支持貶值的因素。安倍上臺後,宣佈採取無限量貨幣寬鬆政策,直到通脹率達到2%,同時維持長期的低利率政策。認知功能和操縱功能的正回饋循環體現為,日元貶值引起的日本經濟復蘇將回饋給日本政府進一步確認寬鬆貨幣政策對經濟的刺激作用,從而加大寬鬆力度,進一步強化日元貶值趨勢,你班友才睇櫻花睇得咁爽,這樣的正回饋迴圈機制在當時具有不斷放大的可能。

正是基於這一判斷,以索羅斯為首的國際宏觀對沖基金通過拋售日元,使得日元價格顯著偏離其均衡點,而且引起市場其他投資者的跟風行為。2015年春天,強國和這個世界的關係,正在發生著深刻的變化。不是蝗蟲到處痾屎和洗腳,買屎坑板這些,如果你熟悉歷史,就會知道,一帶一路的提出與實施強國在亞投行上的巨大成功,以及中國軍艦在萬里之外的撤僑行動,都是史無前例的

索羅斯也因此獲取了巨利,而我用潘頓做膽都中了四條QChinese Navy Security Area. Keep Fucking Clear!


跟著道指大洗牌食大茶飯



2013911標普道瓊指數公司公佈,高盛、VisaNike將取代美國鋁業、惠普及美國銀行,成為道指成份股,列入新的30支成分股之1。變動將於920日收市後生效。1997年加入道指的惠普,將被信用卡公司Visa取代;美銀由高盛(Goldman Sachs)取代;加入道指長達54年的美鋁,則替換成運動用品商Nike。變更於920日美股收盤後生效。


標普道瓊指數公司表示,這番汰換成分股的主因,是這三家公司股價過低,委員會也期望道指成分股更多元化。今年惠普上漲50%、美鋁下跌7%,但共同點都是近年來表現不如大盤。

這代表什麼?這代表大時代,Big Tea Rice降臨,代表PC is Dead,高盛仍是Wall StreetLion Share,也代表運動及體育用品股的大時代降臨,意味華爾街肯定Nike是全球景氣復甦的代表性個股。But,唔係大陸喎。

全球最大運動用品廠商Nike受惠北美市場銷售強勁,上季獲利超乎預期,且毛利率3連升至44.9%,預期未來4個月訂單將年增10%,顯示歐美市場動能續強,有助供應鏈業績持續向上表現。

上周四Nike宣布,在截至8月底的年度第1季獲利超乎預期,且北美營收年增7%,歐洲年增6%,毛利率9連降後3連升,從前1季的43.7%攀高至44.9%,並預期未來4個月全球訂單將年增10% 



雖然包含中國在內的大中華市場,仍是Nike表現最弱地區,上季營收年減3%,今年9~11月的年度第2季,大中華營收將轉為年增,整個2014會計年度大中華營收將持平,顯示中國市場未來1年內可望見底。

Nike跨出傳統運動鞋領域,在運動鞋發展上走出傳統材料及工法,強調輕量化、透氣及一體成型等,進入新潮機能休閒服飾及配件市場,不僅使業績與股價雙雙攀高,股價上周衝上75.25美元(HK$586)的歷史新高,相關供應鏈的業績及股價都有連動潛力。 


But,這己經是已經發生的過去式,Nike入面的精英好多都走光, Nike Innovation Kitchen 一向是新產品研發的部門,經他們研發的產品包括 FuelBandFlyknit 跑鞋。Apple 最近就邀得 Innovation Kitchen 的工作室總監 Ben Shaffer 過檔。更多人去了投靠Portland RYUK博士。(可參考我老作波特蘭的K博士系列)

K博士(Dr. Craig Brod) 昨深夜來電,老占,個刁搞掂啦,下周有大公佈,買定等食糊啦!我訓到矇矇鬆鬆,吓,凌晨四點?乜又升多5%?真係密食當三番。


咁咪話我有好嘢自己收埋食,各位善信自己執生啦。


Rising interest environment

Rising interest rate

Author: Equityengineer   |   Publish date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015, 09:55 PM 

As for today, the highlight would be ADP National Employement Report,  private employers hired 185,000 workers in July, which was the smallest increase since April and reduced expectations of a strong jobs reading in the government's payrolls report due Friday. This news would be the curreny mover.
Long term historical USDSGD and USDMYR. The interets rate has fueled USD to ramp up but MYR is at at historical high and SGD is following trend upwards. With QE and zero interst rate had slammed down USD for the past 7-8 years. Raising an interest rate will cause emerging markets currency suffer losses even more plus commodity price pressed down. Oil is a risk. Nothing is certain even the FED giving hawkish sign to increase interest rate.



Together with them BOE is also expected to move interest rate by beginning of next year. Tomorrow, on Thursday the BoE is combining the breakdown of voting on its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee with the minutes from the meeting. It will also concurrently publish its quarterly inflation report. Its - "Super Thursday".






This type of hike has created volatility and turbulences in the market. Export related stocks mainly is good but yet its not always can be the case. Still have to deal with Malaysia political turbulence which widely reported around the world.

. This table shows the recession in past 100 years and so. Well, the current bull run is about 6 years which is 73 months. With the hope that interest rate does not jeopardize the economy the bull should continue. Even if Malaysia does not seem interesting to invest some US stocks can be an option besides it will be in the US currency.



Nothing much about the recession, definitely the FED won't increase the rate if we are falling into recession.
But the chart below worth checking out. You see, when something is done there will be a consequences, good for somehing and bad
for something.

Some quotes worth to be reminded

1) There have been ZERO times that the Federal Reserve has entered into a rate hiking campaign that did not have a negative consequence.
2) Assuming a buy and hold investment, which never really occurs due to panic selling during declines, investors would have still netted a slightly positive return following the crash of 1987.  However, having just been in cash during that entire period would have netted a higher overall compounded return.
3) The average period of time following an increase in the effective funds rate to either a stock market correction, economic recession or both has been 20.75 months. Therefore, if we assume an initial increase in the Fed funds rate in June of 2015, that would put the next negative event sometime in the first quarter of 2017.
4) However, the median number of months following the initial rate hike has been 17 months. This would advance the timeframe into mid-2016. Such a time frame would coincide with both the Decennial and US presenditial election years
5) Importantly, there have been only two times in recent history that the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates from such a low level of annualized economic growth. The most relevant period was in 1983 when the economy was recovering from two adjacent recessions. Due to such weak economic growth, the impact of rising interest rates tripped up the stock market just 17 months later.
6) Lastly, it is crucially important to recognize that the ENTIRETY of the "bullish" analysis is based around a sustained 34-year period of falling interest rates, inflation and annualized rates of economic growth. With all of these variables near historic lows there is absolutely no way to assume how asset prices, or economic growth, will fair going forward.

This generous CEO shared $27 million with his employees after selling his company- Nevzat Aydın

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55b8e5e8371d2212008bab94-576-428/ck6omh9wwaawfb2.jpg
Nevzat Aydin
 
Rockstar CEO Nevzat Aydın
After Nevzat Aydın sold his online food ordering company Yemeksepeti for a whopping $589 million to Delivery Hero, he gave his employees a generous surprise.
Aydın carved out $27 million for his 114 employees and give each of them a slice. This made the average bonus in the payout $237,000, almost 150 times the normal monthly wage at the Turkish company — employees typically earn between $1,000 to $2,000 a month.
The CEO wanted to reward his employees for building the company with their hard work and talent.
“Yemeksepeti’s success story did not happen overnight,” Aydın told CNNMoney. “I believe in team work and I believe success is much more enjoyable and glorious when shared with the rest of the team.”
It was also reported that many employees were crying from happiness when Aydın broke the news to them.
Yemeksepeti, meaning “food cart” in Turkish, is Turkey’s first and largest online food delivery site, similar to platforms like Postmates or Grubhub. It promises to have food delivered to its customer’s doorsteps within 30-45 minutes of an order.
The company does over 3 million transactions a month, reported Quartz.
And on that warm and fuzzy note, there are other thoughtful bosses out there who have donated kidneys to their employee’s sons and paid off their worker’s mortgage. 

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: ELSOFT (04/08/2015)

Tue, 4 Aug 2015, 09:52 AM



Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: ELSOFT (04/08/2015)

Monday, July 27, 2015

2016 stocks to buy

As I was writing this, most stocks have started the rally.

Below are just some stocks which I think can have in my portfolio in order to have reasonable return. Buying and selling at your own risk. I will give my own desired cost to buy, and also will have more analysis on each stock moving forward.

I think by focusing more on just 10-15 stocks will make us more focus, also the same time my website/ blog here can be more focus on analysis which I think most of us here readers wanted.

I shall speak lesser on market/ economics, and might just focus more on analysis.

2016 STOCK PORTFOLIO

1. KESM- RM4.00 range
2. HHGroup-RM0.45 range
3. GSB-RM0.09 to 0.10 range
4. Elsoft-RM1.75-1.80 range
5. Landmark-RM1.20-1.30 range
6. GENM-RM4.00-4.20 range
7. GENTING-WA-RM1.05-1.10 range
8. Solution-RM0.30-0.33 range
9. Gadang- RM1.40-1.45 range
10. PerakCorp- RM3.00-3.30 range

some others still monitoring now: BTM-WB, LFECorp.

Good luck investing.
Investment is a longterm commitment. I would prefer to have more exposure only after Sep2015, should FED choose to hike slowly.


“The secret to successful investing is to figure out the value of something-and then pay a lot less.”         Joel Grenblatt

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Insider Asia’s Stock Of The Day: Elsoft

 



ELSOFT Research Bhd (Fundamental: 3/3, Valuation: 2.1/3) offers investors an exposure to the robust growth in mobile devices and the increasing use of LED (light emitting diode) in consumer products. 
The Penang based technology player designs and develops automated test equipment for companies to inspect LEDs. LEDs are a component in printed circuit boards used mainly in the semiconductor, consumer products, optoelectronic and automotive industries. 
Elsoft recently completed its transfer from the ACE to the Main Market on Jan 22. The MSC-status company has also just successfully renewed its pioneer status and will enjoy tax exemption for the next 10 years until 2025. 
Its underlying business has been doing very well. Revenue grew at a CAGR of over 41.4% between 2010 and 2014, to RM45.14 million. Net profit grew by an outsized 50.4% annually over the same period, to RM 19.78 million. Elsoft runs a lean ship, with just 61 staff, translating into a high productivity of RM740,000 of revenue per employee. 
Moving forward, Elsoft plans to expand its customer base and produce LED testing equipment for medical devices, which it expects to boost revenue by 20%. Meanwhile, its associate company, Lesoshoppe is seeking to list on the ACE market, to fund the expansion of its trading equipment business in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Elsoft has a strong balance sheet with double-digit ROE and is in a net cash position of RM32.3 million. This is supportive of its minimum 40% dividend payout policy. 
Indeed, Elsoft has been rewarding shareholders with more, paying 50-73% of annual earnings in 2011-2013. Recently, Elsoft declared a dividend of 5 sen per share, bringing the total dividends in 2014 to 7 sen which translates into a net yield of 4%. The stock is trading at a trailing 12-month P/E of 15.7 times, which is attractive relative to its strong double-digit growth.
elsoft_300315

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 30, 2015.

ELSOFT - Diversifying into automotive and medical with technology


Exchange: KLSE
Current Price: RM 1.870
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 181,132,000
Market Capitalization: RM 338.7 million
Public Float: 18%
Industry: Technology Equipments

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
 Previous FYTTMMRQCriteria (Annualised)
Valuation    
Historical P(EBITDA)R11.2313.09 <10
Trailing PTBV 4.21  
Dividend Yield2.1%-  
Capital Structure    
Long Term Debt/Total Asset0.8%0.6% <30%
Total Debt/Total Asset6.7%5.1% <60%
Management Effectiveness    
ROE (use EBITDA)29.2%41.9%6.5%>15%
ROA (use EBITDA)26.4%38.7%6.2%>6%
ROIC (use EBITDA)27.2%39.7%6.4%>4%
Liquidity    
Cash Ratio1.843.80  
Quick Ratio6.3913.24 >0.8
Profitability    
EBITDA Margin47.5%49.1%49.3%>5%
EBITDA (cents)11.8513.892.80 
Cash Flow    
Operating Cash Flow/Net Profit0.690.770.61>0.5
Free Cash Flow/Net Profit0.660.750.59>0.2

  YoYQoQCriteria
Growth    
Revenue 79.0%144.6%>10%
EBITDA 82.6%265.1%>5%
EBITDA/Equity 50.7%188.9%>0%
Comment: Valuation ratios failed slightly whereas all other criterias pass with flying colours. This is fine for a technology stock.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
Advantages: Large cash holdings in USD to further boost company performance. ELSOFT also has a pioneer status for 100% tax exemption on its earnings. Business is also well diversified to prevent dependence on growth of smart devices only. ELSOFT provides for other segments such as the automotive and medical industry.
Risks: ELSOFT may see increased competition from other companies such as MMSV, FRONTKN and INARI.

RESULTS
Target Price: RM 2.930
Potential Upside: 57% (based on current price)
Margin of Safety: 36% (based on current price)
Maximum Entry Price (Fundamental): RM 2.050
Recommended Entry Price (Technical): RM 1.780
Cut Loss: RM 1.600
Holding Period: Until end of August 2016 (After QR)