賺錢的方式已經徹底變了(二)

http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/04/blog-post_12.html
一個在東莞開工廠的朋友告訴我，他的工廠今年還沒有接到一個訂單。事實上，不管是民企、中小企，廠佬、甚至銀行裁員的大趨勢已經在發生，金融危機前的2007年以來美國和歐洲的銀行業雇員數量從最高點減少了80萬人。所以，超人才說目前的經濟是20年最差。

進入2016年，很多人發現錢比以前難賺了，實際上是賺錢的邏輯變化了。現在的世界，進入了更高層次的「資本經濟」的時代。要想學會資本思維，必須先來深刻理解一下什麼是「資本」。「資本」Capital僅僅是指貨幣Currency嗎？不是。資本是對資源Resources的支配權，通過資源支配帶來更多的支配權叫「資本運作」，通過「資本運作」優化和配置社會財富，實現社會效率的最大化就是「資本運作」的社會價值。

從經濟層面講，今後社會上只有三類人：1. 資源者(普通人)。2. 配置者(橋樑、Broker)。3. VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人(玩家)。按照這三種不同性質的角色扮演，今後個人如何獲得財富？無非只有三條管道：出售資源、配置資源、掌握資本。

我們需要明白的是：第3種人賺的錢就比第2種人多，第2種人賺的錢比第1種人多。因此，第1種人在努力進化到第2種人，而第2種人在拼命進化到第3種人。

廢青天生具有資本的人是極少的，大部分第3種人都是從第1種人或者第2種人進化過來的，雖然目前這種進化已經越來越難了，但還不是沒有希望，因為以後會更加的困難。這就是階級鬥爭，階級間向上流動力減少。

關鍵就只有兩點：你有幾聰明？或者你積累的資本有多少？同時，這也回答了另一個問題：賺錢的方法千奇八怪，為何偏偏選擇「打工」這一種？

有人扮旅遊達人、美容達人、金融才俊、食評家、組黨、弄個什麼協會自己做會長、都可以呃飲呃食呃上鏡，你唔係比佢地蠢呀嘛?

我們先看看第3種人 ---- VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人(幕後玩家)

這個社會的財富，看似是屬於分散的第1種「資源者」的，實際上卻是歸第2種人「配置者」享用的。但在本質上，更多的是屬於第3種人。

「資本家」跟「企業家」的最大區別是：資本家不直接參與企業的經營和管理，而是在幕後操縱企業宏觀思路，企業的產品是各類消費品等，而資本家的產品就是各個企業。通過投資、入股、並購、重組的方式，將一個企業的未來把控到自己手中，孫正義投資了馬雲，成全了阿里巴巴，馬雲就是企業家，而孫正義就是資本家。孫正義手裡有N個馬雲，成了日本首富。再比如巴菲特、Charlie Munger專門坐在屋企投資，操縱他的佈局，他也是資本家。超人投了Ambidio，他也是資本家。

據說，巴菲特之所以拒絕投資在美股上市的強國概念股股票，是因為以下原因：

1.      傳統企業的道德瑕疵太嚴重，只會跟隨、抄襲與複製甚至盜竊，唯利是圖，沒有丁點的創新。

2.      傳統企業既沒有社會責任，又無法挖掘主要消費者的購買力。

3.      科技進步日新月異削弱傳統企業的管道和模式壁壘。

即使傳統企業滿足上述3個要求，巴菲特也不一定就會投資美股中國概念股，因為中國企業核心價值觀存在著重大瑕疵：功利主義、拜金主義、造假和賣假貨......與巴菲特對管理層所要求的「無為、無我、無私」差距太大。

OK，逆向操作，你是廢青，廢中，你要由第1種人在努力進化到第2種人，第3種人咁就要瞭解逆向思維，「傳統企業」的相反，就是「創新」；「抄襲與複製甚至盜竊」的相反，就是「原創」；沒有社會責任，咁弄個NGO囉，回饋社會；無法挖掘主要消費者的購買力，咁咪用Big Data挖掘客戶潛在需要，要突破「傳統企業的管道和模式壁壘」，咁咪用互聯網、電商、另闢通路囉，我都寫左N篇啦；你連$10,000投資股票的錢都冇，我地咪搞了$1也可以投資的私募基金出來；甚至，你Download FDT隻App玩虛擬Forex，期貨，細路，你打爆機，一樣有US$100,000野落袋。

美國是自由市場經濟，但是為什麼叫資本主義社會呢？而不叫自有市場主義社會呢？因為在這樣的社會，「資本」是度量和決定一切的標準。在地獄鬼國，你富甲一方也沒用，中聯辦隨時能把你抄家，你有錢也要去給權力行賄，去買官。而你只要有了權力，哪怕身無分文，一樣生活富庶、吃喝不愁，所以是官本位。

你班友的出路在於：抱著壯士斷臂的決心，認清這個時代賦予新的歷史使命，看勢審勢，今後個人及企業的發展邏輯只有一條：你創造多大價值，你就可以獲取多少財富。所謂無破則不立，舊的不去，新的不來。

那到底怎麼樣從第1種人進化到第3種人？(未完待續)

賺錢的方式已經徹底變了! 賺錢的方式已經徹底變了

 

四月是業績期，阿里巴巴2015年第四季度財報顯示其營收為人民幣345.43億元(約合53.33億美元)，同比增長32%。純利為人民幣124.56億元(約合19.23億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣59.83億元增長108%。

http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/04/blog-post_11.html

阿里巴巴發佈截至2015年12月31日的2016財年第三季度財報。營收為人民幣345.43億元(約合53.33億美元)，同比增長32%。純利為人民幣124.56億元(約合19.23億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣59.83億元增長108%。基於非美國通用會計準則，淨利潤為人民幣163.58億元(約合25.25億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣131.15億元增長25%。收入利潤雙雙強勁增長，超越華爾街預期。

騰訊控股公佈截至2015年12月31日未經審核的第四季度綜合業績及經審核的全年綜合業績。2015年第四季度，騰訊總收入為人民幣304.41億元，比去年同期增長45%，比去年同期增長28%。2015年全年，騰訊總收入為1028.63億元(158.41億美元)，比去年同期增長30%。騰訊權益持有人應占盈利為324.10億元(49.91億美元)，比去年同期增長31%。

百度第四季度總營收為人民幣186.99億元(約合28.87億美元)，比去年同期增長33.1%；淨利潤為人民幣247.12億元(約合38.15億美元)，比去年同期增長663.0%，因計入百度與攜程、去哪兒股權所帶來的淨收入。百度2015年總營收為人民幣663.82億元(約合102.48億美元)，比2014年增長35.3%。百度2015年淨利潤為人民幣336.64億元(約合51.97億美元)，比2014年增長155.1%。

京東發佈2015財年第四季度及全年財報。第四季度，京東營收為人民幣546億元(約合84億美元)，同比增長57%。淨虧損為人民幣76億元(約合12億美元)，而上年同期淨虧損人民幣5億元，淨虧損人民幣6.562億元(約合1.013億美元)，而上年同期淨利潤人民幣8380萬元。2015全年淨收入為1813億元(約280億美元)，同比增長58%。2015全年非美國通用會計準則下(Non-GAAP)歸屬普通股股東的淨虧損為8.505億元(約1.313億美元)。

再看看Numbers，环球老虎财经166720億、177095億、183213億、221049億，以上分別是中、農、建、工四大行最新公佈的總資產。他們過去是睡著都能賺錢的金融業巨無霸，但如今，世道一變。四大行近期公佈的2015年度財報慘不忍睹，純利陷入龜速增長，高層流失加劇，20年來首現主動離職潮，與此相反，Fintech風頭正勁。馬雲的網商銀行手機App正式上線；萬達推出消費信用服務平臺「快立借」；「京東金條」橫空出世，固守老舊體制的四大行曾擁有最多的金融用戶，卻眼白白看著後來者攻城掠地，死不足惜。

對於強國銀行業來說，利潤增速兩位數的時代已經過去。四大行交上了近十年最差業績，淨利潤均陷入低水準增長。

去年底農行盈利1805.82億元，按年增長0.7%，相當於日賺4.95億元。至此國有四大行全部公佈了2015年經營業績：中行淨賺1794.17億元，同比增長1.25%，相當於日賺4.92億元；工行淨賺2777億元，比上年增長0.5%，相當於日賺7.6億元；而建行淨賺2281.45億元，較上年增長0.14%，日賺6.25億元；四大行在2015年共賺8660.36億元，相當於日賺23.72億。

我在信報也寫過，「沒有行長的銀行」(2015年12月4日) ，2015年共有超過50位銀行高管離職、有D跳樓去。涉及的崗位有董事、行長、副行長、風險總監等，有的則是分支行行長，有的分支行行長甚至公開說，不想再回銀行。傳統銀行外部競爭壓力大、內部管控無力、員工太多、網點成本太高、體制化僵硬、盈利模式已死，最令銀行業坐立不安的恐怕要數不斷流失的銀行業人才了。強國銀行業正經歷一場歷史性的離職潮，這是20年以來首次出現的主動離職潮！

興業銀行副行長離職去了騰訊；中國銀行副行長離職去了樂視；華夏銀行副行長離職去了蘇寧；渤海銀行行長離職去了萬達；杭州銀行行長、建設銀行網路金融部老總離職去了阿里；工商銀行兩大互聯網金融帶頭人辭職自己搞銀行；招行前董事長索性自己搞FDT。

國務院批轉國家發改委《關於2016年深化經濟體制改革重點工作意見》中提到，進一步擴大民間資本進入銀行業，發展民營銀行。這個意見無疑為當下民營銀行、民資金融野的大時代趨勢再添一把火。

馬雲：阿里金融大帝國

馬雲的金融帝國，以螞蟻金服為主，以支付寶為核心。目前螞蟻帝國的人口相當於半家工商銀行，1.25家建設銀行，4家招商銀行，20家北京銀行。

　　

短短兩年，馬雲幾乎完成了全金融牌照的佈局，金融業務遍佈整個生態。其中支付領域，支付寶獨攬80%的中國移動支付市場，碾壓銀聯。理財餘額寶被稱為寄居在銀行身上的吸血鬼，兩周吸走66億，200天從0到2500億，顫抖中國銀行業，堪稱天弘神話。覆蓋支付、證券、保險、信託、貸款、眾籌、征信、銀行、基金、理財等10大金融主要領域，絕對中國第一金融大帝國。

支付寶今天已經打劫了傳統銀行的「存、貸、匯」三大核心功能，充分融入了蝗蟲的生活，動搖了傳統銀行的肋骨。3月9日，馬雲的網商銀行手機App正式上線，打開統一的入口為大家服務。「馬雲銀行」終於從傳說變成現實。

　　

馬化騰：騰訊金融大帝國

看到騰訊金融，立馬會想到微信紅包。目前騰訊金融的業務已覆蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、證券、銀行、征信、基金、眾籌等9大領域，覆蓋整個金融生態，猛追馬雲。微信還透露理財業務資金保有量已突破1000億，並開通微信紅包直接理財功能。同時在面對今年春晚發紅包這件事情上，去年春晚微信紅包一夜飆紅，短短幾天，騰訊完成了支付寶8年的綁卡量。馬化騰更是出動整個騰訊資源勢必與馬雲血拼到底。讓金融通過社交擴散到各行各業。

今天的微信平均每天有5.7億人登陸，意味著每天登陸微信的人數接近中國人口一半。用社交來反哺金融的馬化騰，正把金融這件事上升到了騰訊最高戰略。

　　

劉強東：京東金融大帝國

一季度蝕7億、二季度蝕5億、三季度再蝕虧5億。就是這樣一家用虧損換未來的企業，今天市值超2400億，他就是京東，中國的亞馬遜。今天京東的金融業務也在虧損，前9個月蝕6.77億，但京東金融的估值已到460億，還將於2016完成上市。

　　

今天的京東金融的業務涵蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、證券、征信、眾籌等7大領域，相比前面阿里、騰訊主要就是少了銀行，不過京東已經與中信銀行達成戰略合作。京東金融保持飛速成長，其代表產品「京東白條」一年時間同比增長700%，成為京東金融的首要戰略。

　　

李彥宏：百度金融大帝國

阿里、騰訊、京東的金融佈局日益明朗，百度卻無聲無息，它是中國最官僚的互聯網公司，曾經中國三大互聯網巨頭之一，今天卻被我們遺忘，除了Search，一無是處，當我們所有人都為他感到焦慮，覺得他應該退出BAT的時候，所有人卻目瞪口呆了！

8天時間，百度拿下銀行+保險，成立百信銀行+百安保險，兩個月，百度錢包猛增520%，隨即，百度立馬成立金融服務事業群，將金融業務上升到百度最高戰略。消失了整整一年的百度，突然重回視線，閃電般的速度完成金融佈局，一時間震驚了整個金融行業，目前百度金融業務已覆蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、銀行、征信、基金等7大領域。再看看股價。

進入2016年，很多人發現錢比以前難賺了，實際上是賺錢的邏輯變化了。現在的世界，進入了更高層次的資本經濟的時代。

什麼是「資本經濟」時代呢？簡而言之，它就是在市場經濟的基礎上加了一根杠杆，在物理學上杠杆”的作用是利用力臂將力量放大，從而可以翹起更大品質物體。

從經濟層面講，今後社會上只有三類人：

第一，資源者。他們是資源的最直接擁有者，依靠出賣自己的資源生存，比如農夫靠耕地、工人靠體力、醫生靠技能、作家靠寫作，還有老師、律師等等。

第二，配置者。資源是誰的不重要，關鍵要有資源配置權。這類人依靠配置資源賺錢，從事資源的投入、整合、運營、產出工作，以企業家為主，Startup創業者也屬於此類。

第三，VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人。他們離資源最遠，但是所有資源卻統統歸他們掌控，他們只躲在幕後玩操作遊戲。風險投資者就屬於此類人，比如孫正義投資馬雲，阿里巴巴上市使他大獲成功、李嘉誠投資台妹Ambidio。資本家無國界，他們可以控制全球資源流向；可以通過金融體系支配大量別人的資產。

所以，資源名義上都是資源者的，實際上都是資本家的。看一個人能量多大，關鍵是他能配置多少資源。

我們的私募基金又到一年一度的吸納會員時期(6月)，有興趣可私信，本季季報全部己發出。http://synergychinafunds.com/

Alibaba acquires controlling stake in Lazada

Alibaba Group, the guys behind global trading site Alibaba.com have just acquired a large holding stake of eCommerce platform Lazada, following an acquisition of shares and a USD500 million investment in the company.

The transaction is expected to help the brands (and distributors) that are already on Alibaba’s platform to gain access to the SEA consumer market through Lazada. As of the moment, Lazada operates in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam; with a combined estimated Internet user base of 200 million, being well known for having a huge variety of good for sale at a below retail prices.
Considering a lot of people do sales online, the move is likely to help boost eCommerce in the region somewhat for both companies.
“Globalization is a critical strategy for the growth of Alibaba Group today and well into the future,” said Michael Evans, President of Alibaba. “With the investment in Lazada, Alibaba gains access to a platform with a large and growing consumer base outside China, a proven management team and a solid foundation for future growth in one of the most promising regions for eCommerce globally. This investment is consistent with our strategy of connecting brands, distributors and consumers wherever they are and support our ecosystem expansion in Southeast Asia to better serve our customers.”
As for us consumers, this means that online shopping on either platform is just going to get better with more diverse options on an already incredibly wide spectrum of goods available on both Lazada and Alibaba. Do you think this move will be good for everyone? let us know in the comments.

CEO on AirAsia’s direction ahead

Kamarudin is in the process of selecting the institutions and the best deal for AirAsia’s proposed private placement.

JUST off a flight from London, Tan Sri Tony Fernandes met up with StarBizWeek senior editor of business B.K. SIDHU to talk about the funding for the RM1bil share placement he and his partner, Datuk Kamarudin Meranun, are subscribing to and other goings-on at the AirAsia group.

Name the institutions that you said are willing to lend you and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun money to take up the 559 million placement shares.

We are not in a position to do that. We have a lot of offers and since the announcement, new institutions have come in. My expertise is not in that, it’s (Datuk) Kamarudin (Meranun). He is in the process of selecting the institutions and the best deal. But it is encouraging to see two things: firstly, the share price going up, and secondly, the quality of institutions that see value in the transaction, which ultimately means value in AirAsia.

Are local institutions involved?

 

Of course, it is a range.

When do you expect to wrap up the funding?

I don’t know. Our shareholders’ meeting is on May 9 and we have two months after that to fund it. But we already have deals on the table, and we would not have made the announcement if we did not already have a deal on the table.

How much of the portion is in cash and debt?

I do not know. We have to see what comes up, what is the cost of the interest. If it is very low, then we go by that (the portion of debt will be higher).

How much cash do you have?

Something I would not reveal for a variety of reasons.

You are said to be highly geared ...

Does it matter? Why is this an issue? If we are highly geared, then who would want to lend us money in the first place? People say a lot of things when you are in the public eye. They say this and that. People also make a lot of insinuations ... the proof is really in the pudding.

Why did you take your eyes off AirAsia to focus on other businesses? Then came the GMT Research report talking about accounting irregularities ...

Leadership is not about staying there forever. Leadership is about making sure that if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, the company grows, and it is not dominated by CEOs. That has nothing to do with GMT.

GMT wrote stuff that I have said from the beginning was sensational.

I was deliberately planning a leadership succession.

After GMT, and more importantly QZ8051 (AirAsia Indonesia’s flight that crashed into the Java Sea on Dec 29, 2014), both of us, me and Kamarudin, felt that we should steer AirAsia (back). We see tremendous value and tremendous upside for AirAsia. So, it is a combination of both the factors, GMT and QZ that motivated us to get back.

That does not mean that we have to be here for the next 50 years. It has to evolve from the founders and beyond. But I still believe, me and Din are motivated, so we are focused on doing it.

But what upsets me most about GMT was that they said we were not transparent. How could they write a report like that because we were very transparent? We never hid the fact that we had problems in AirAsia Philippines and AirAsia Indonesia. We never hide the problems and issues.

But I would say this is the problem with the stock market sometimes. On one side, you are questioning me and saying people say we have too much cash. Six months ago, you were asking if we were going to have a rights issue to raise cash because GMT said we had too little cash.

Investors do not look at the long term. Ten years ago, people were saying why did we invest in AirAsia Thailand. But now, this company is worth almost the same as AirAsia Bhd although it took time to get to where it is. So, different countries have different issues and problems.

Ryanair, for example, does not have to show how Ryanair Poland or other units are doing. It is all part of Ryanair.

Actually, AirAsia Indonesia contributes tremendously to AirAsia Malaysia, which makes money from all the routes in Indonesia. India is also a very big market and it has a big role for AirAsia Malaysia and AirAsia Thailand, but we must look at AirAsia as one company.

Having said that, AirAsia Philippines and AirAsia Indonesia are well on the way to becoming the next AirAsia Thailand. As for AirAsia India, I have been very bullish about it. It will make money.

India is the second largest country by population. How can you not be bullish about that, with such tourism activities, diversity of cultures and such history? And we are the only foreign airline there and low cost at that. Such value there. You know how much people will pay to get into that market?

We now have a new management team there and they are all very bullish about the business.

And the rumours, especially for a brand like AirAsia, including about myself, will never stop, never cease. We rather just focus on the results.

What about your earnings outlook?

It appears positive at the moment. Another slight boost from the ringgit, it has strengthened since the past few weeks. Oil has remained low. But to me, oil and ringgit are secondary to demand. Demand seems quite strong at the moment. Obviously, Malindo Air is becoming a full-service carrier and KLIA2 is virtually our terminal, which helps. I think we have been able to create demand.

But the cloud in the skies is the constant lack of industry players looking at cost and efficiency, and that is something we need to sort out by the side.

It is not about airlines absorbing the cost, we need to keep our fares low to stimulate demand.

But if you keep pushing the cost factor up, we will show that every time the cost increases, the numbers will drop. AirAsia will stimulate air travel with low fares and Malaysia should not lose its advantage on low cost. The industry is doing well, but please do not kill the goose that lays the golden egg, which is low cost.

Nine months on, how has it been?

To be honest, if you look at our financial numbers nine months ago, they were very good as well. This is why sometimes with the financial community, they do not look deep enough into the numbers. I have often criticised the accountants for not making the accounts clear to the general public.

Our accounts should be consolidated. It is not that we cannot own 100% of the company, but these are the regulations and we have to change.

But I was never worried about the stock price as what goes down must go up. This is a good company, solid, and the best way to answer all this is with the results. We delivered profits in the fourth quarter and we are looking forward to delivering them in the first quarter of this year.

The beauty of AirAsia, as one banker put it, is the cream always rises to the top, and with AirAsia, it has been very resilient the past 14 years. Despite the negativity, we have remained focused. I do not believe that fundamentally anything has changed since the past nine months, then and now. Of course, for me, what a 2015 it was with QZ8051 and the GMT report.

What if there is another GMT-like report in the future?

We will stand up and take it, be open and transparent and the market will come back.

So what’s next?

AirAsia is a jewel, it is three businesses and potentially adding a fourth.

It is the passenger service business which generates a huge cash flow, the profitable ancillary business, and the equity business where we do partnerships with Expedia, ACE, etc.

Many companies have not realised the power of data and we are investing heavily to understand the customer so that we are able to offer a better experience by using data.

It will not be long before you log in to our website and it will be personalised and customised to your needs. We will be able to offer you deals, be it for travel, food, duty-free or even foreign exchange.

We are rich in data and there is huge potential for monetisation of that data. We are light years ahead of the competition on that and are excited about what our data scientists have created. We will have a tremendous amount of efficiency and potential to up-sell to our travellers and also make the travelling experience much easier and better. And finally, we have got an agreement with KLIA2 for mobile phone buys and check-in. It is about capturing customer behaviour and giving them what they want.

Essentially, the first 10 years of AirAsia was about building a brand and the next ten years about using technology to improve revenue, reduce cost and make flying a much better experience.

So, the value of AirAsia is really being missed. There is no business like AirAsia that stretches from India to Japan, has 70 million consumers and the data that we have.

Will you be getting more planes this year?

We still remain quite cautious, but a bit more than last year, about eight this year, with the first Neo in October. It comes with six more seats from 180 to 186. These are lightweight seats. The interior is much nicer with much more baggage space besides a 15% reduction in cost.

The total fleet in operation is 200 and on order is 306. The deliveries are for the next 10 years. Don’t forget a lot of new planes are up for replacement. Our first plane is coming up to 12 years.

http

AirAsia - Proposed Placement to Tune Live

AirAsia announced that it has entered into a conditional subscription agreement with Tune Live Sdn Bhd, which is equally owned by both Tan Sri Dr Anthony Francis Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Bin Meranun. The proposed placement will see an issuance of 559m new ordinary shares, representing 16.7% of its enlarged share base which would increase its capital from 2.8bn to 3.3bn shares of RM0.10 each. The shares will be issued at an issue price of RM1.84 per share via cash. We are downgrading our call to Neutral due to limited upside. Our new target price of RM2.00 (previously RM1.88) is pegged on 8x FY17F (previously 10x FY16F). Our forecast is based on enlarged share capital and we include in the new additional income from maintenance of leased aircrafts to its associates for FY16F-18F.

• Details of the placement. The indicative price of RM1.84 for the placement was based on its 5-market day volume weighted average price (VWAP) up to 31st March 2016, and on the basis of no dividend being declared or paid. Based on an adjusted issue price of RM1.80 (on the basis of the new share issuance not being entitled to the first and final dividend of FY15), the exercise will raise cash proceeds of c.RM1bn, and is expected to be completed by 3QFY16 subject to approval from shareholders and any other regulatory authorities (e.g. Bursa Securities and BNM).
• Utilisation of proceeds. The gross proceeds of c.RM1bn from the placement will be used for the prepayment and repayment of debt, financing of aircraft acquisitions, engines and parts, pre-delivery payments of aircraft, general corporate and working capital, and the expenditures. It is expected to generate an annual interest savings of c.RM10.7m from the prepayment of bank borrowings, while net gearing level will reduce from 2.0x to 1.6x for FY16F.
• Rationale of the placement. We understand that a placement exercise is the best option for the group to strengthen its balance sheet without having to incur additional borrowings and related interest expenses compared to issuing Medium Term Notes. However, it is expected to have a dilutive effect on AirAsia’s EPS. Based on the enlarged share capital of 3.3bn shares, our forecasted FY17 EPS will be diluted by approximately 7% to 25.0 sen from 28.7 sen.
• Downgrade to Neutral. We are downgrading our call to Neutral due to limited upside. Our new target price of RM2.00 (previously RM1.88) is pegged on 8x FY17F (previously 10x FY16F). The reduction in multiples is due to on-going volatility in oil and currencies. The forecast is based on enlarged share capital and we include in the new additional income from maintenance of leased aircrafts to its associates for FY16F-18F.

Airasia to raise RM1bil via share placements with founders.

AirAsia to raise RM1b via share placement with founders

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 1 Apr 2016, 05:44 PM  

---

         By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | April 1, 2016 : 6:03 PM MYT    

KUALA LUMPUR (April 1): AirAsia Bhd has entered into a share subscription agreement with its founders Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun to raise RM1.01 billion.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, the budget airline said it has entered into a conditional subscription agreement with Fernandes and Kamarudin through Tune Live Sdn Bhd, to issue and subscribe 559 million new shares in AirAsia at RM1.84 per share, in order to raise RM1.01 billion.
The issue price represents a 0.6% premium to the airline's last closing price of RM1.83 and a 31.4% premium to the 12-month volume weighted average price of RM1.41 per share.
Tune Live, which is currently dormant, is equally-owned by Fernandes and Kamarudin. Upon completion of the proposed shares issuance, Tune Live will hold 15.7% of the enlarged issued capital of AirAsia.
As at March 28, Fernandes and Kamarudin hold directly and indirectly, a total of 18.9% shareholding in AirAsia. The duo hold a combined 18.87% stake in AirAsia via another private vehicle named Tune Air Sdn Bhd.
Post the proposed shares issuance, Fernandes and Kamarudin will hold a 32.5% stake in AirAsia, just slightly under the 33% threshold to make a mandatory general offer to the airline's minority shareholders.
AirAsia said it will use the raised proceeds to reduce its gearing from 2.79 times now to 2.22 times post the proposed shares issuance, financing of aircraft, engines and parts, pre-delivery payments of aircraft, general corporate and working capital, and the expenditures related to the exercise. About 10.3% or RM103.82 million of the funds will be used to partially fund the construction of its new headquarters at klia2, which is scheduled to be completed this year.
According to AirAsia, it will convene an extraordinary general meeting to seek approval from its non-interested shareholders for the proposed shares issuance.
On the rationale, AirAsia said the shares issuance is the most appropriate means of fund-raising, since the terms for its US$1 billion Multicurrency Medium Term Note (MTN) Programme which was announced on Jan 6, 2016, were not favourable due to weak market sentiments.
"The proposed shares issuance is expected to generate annual interest savings of approximately RM10.69 million, arising from the pre-payment of bank borrowings," it added.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances and subject to all relevant approvals being obtained, AirAsia targets to complete the corporate exercise by the third quarter of 2016.
Shares in AirAsia will resume trading next Monday (April 4). The stock was not traded today. It last closed at RM1.83 per share, for a market value of RM4.93 billion.

http://www.theedgemarkets

Genting - A Closer Look At TauRx

Genting’s share price has moved up by over 20% over the past two months. We believe this is due to speculation on the potential listing of its 21%-owned pharmaceutical unit TauRx as well as the return of foreign interest, given its high foreign shareholdings level of approximately 50%. At current levels, we believe upside is limited. Maintain NEUTRAL with our TP revised to MYR9.08 (from MYR8.00, 2% downside).

TauRx a giant in the making? TauRx Pharmaceuticals (TauRx) plans to present results from its third phase of human trials on its experimental Alzheimer’s drug known as LMTX by Jul 2016. According to preliminaryresearch results published in the Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, patients whotook its LMTX treatment had better cognitive scores than those who did not receive it. Should the results prove to be favourable, the Wall Street Journal reported that the group would file for an IPO with an indicative market capitalisation of USD15bn.

Impact on Genting. While we acknowledge that the market potential for TauRx could be massive, with more than 40m Alzheimer’s patients estimated worldwide, we highlight that there were about 123 experimental Alzheimer’s medicines that had failed to commence commercial production between 1998 and 2014. Based on our channel checks, Genting has invested USD120m for its existing 21% stake in TauRx. Should the IPO materialise, the value of Genting’s stake in TauRx could blloon to over USD2.2bn (assuming its 21% stake would be diluted to 15% post-IPO). This could potentially translate into value accretion of MYR2.30-2.50 per share in Genting. We have yet to factor this into our valuation, pending the confirmation of results from its latest trials. Las Vegas to open in 2018. The proposed USD4bn Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV) recently received the green light from the Clark County commissioners to proceed with construction. The site office and parking garages are currently being constructed and would be completed by mid-2016. Management highlighted that the public tender on the work packages would soon be called, with physical construction works likely to begin in 2H16. We reiterate our view that phase one of the project would open earliest by mid-2018. Although nearterm earnings-accretion is unlikely, RWLV could, in the long run, help to address investors’ perception of the group being a holding company.

Maintain NEUTRAL. We raise our TP to MYR9.08 (from MYR8.00), factoring in our latest valuation on its listed subsidiaries and pegging a revised discount of 15% (from 25%). This is to reflect improved market sentiment amidst te return of foreign institutions (as evidenced by YTD net inflows of MYR1.6bn by foreignthe limited downside, we maintain our NEUTRAL call. The upside risk to our call would be clinical results of LMTX proving favourable, while key downside risks include further delays for RWLV and unsuccessful clinical trials.

Source: RHB Research - 29 Mar 2016

 

 

AirAsia shares surge on news of potential privatisation

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Research is “neutral” on the news that AirAsia Bhd could be privatised and has downgraded the stock to “hold”.

Over the weekend, a business weekly reported that Tune Air (AirAsia founder) in partnership with China Everbright was planning to privatise AirAsia, citing sources familiar with the matter. However, company official stated they have not received any formal offer and would not comment.

“We are neutral on this event pending details. We now rate AirAsia as a ‘hold’ (previously buy) as the current share price, which has outperformed, offers limited upside to our unchanged target price of RM1.80, which is pegged to one time 2016 P/BV,” it said.

Maybank said AirAsia had a long history of ‘privatisation’ attempts. Since the budget carrier was listed back in November 2004, rumours of privatisation have surfaced time and again.

 

“By our count, there was at least five such ‘attempts’ and this latest one makes it six. However, there was never a formal offer made to AirAsia for a privatisation, thus inferring that it was not as ‘imminent’ as the market would have thought.

“A privatisation, if true, and at the last share price of RM1.81, would mean RM4.08bil to be forked out by both Tune Air and China Everbright,” Maybank said.

AirAsia, the second most active counters today, is up 6 sen to RM1.87.

Maybank said the facts were unconvincing for a privatisation to happen this time. It recalled that AirAsia had called for an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on Dec 15, 2015 just to secure shareholders’ mandate to buy back 10% of its shares, effectively “sending a firm message that it is not for sale”

AirAsia has commenced its first buy back tranche shortly after announcing its fourth quarter 2015 results in February 2016.

“This maiden buy back proves that the management is making good of its ‘not for sale’ declaration. Furthermore, Tune Air has not accumulated shares in AirAsia for the past 12 months, according  to filings to the Malaysian stock exchange. And if China Everbright has, the stake will be less than 5% which does not require filing to the exchange,” it said.

AirAsia’s share price has surged by 30%  after releasing  its  positive fourth quarter FY15 results in end-Feb 2016.

“It is now at our target price of RM1.80, and we downgrade the stock to a hold. Should the share price spike further on this privatisation angle, we recommend investors to take profit and recycle the booty into other quality airlines such as IndiGo and Cebu Air,” Maybank said.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/28/airasia-shares-surge-on-news-of-potential-privatisation/

AirAsia holds its ground

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on March 7 - 13, 2016.

 

IT is amazing what a little competition can do.

Few thought much of AirAsia Bhd back in 2001, when it was burdened with a debt of RM40 million, owned just two old aircraft bought at a laughable bargain of RM2 and boasted the famous tagline, “Now Everyone Can Fly”. The skies in Asia, after all, were reserved for established institutions — the full-service carriers (FSCs) — and air travel was mostly for the higher-income group.

But AirAsia appealed to an untapped Asian market. By 2003, the low-cost carrier (LCC) had expanded its operations to a second hub in Johor Baru and made its first international flight to Phuket, following a joint venture with Thailand’s Shin Corp. A year later, it bought into Indonesian airline PT AWAIR and was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia. Through joint ventures, it now has bases in the Philippines, Japan and India.

Some observers claim that Air­Asia’s rapid expansion contributed to the gradual demise of national carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS). By most accounts, the two airlines operated on different cost structures and served separate, distinct market segments. But MAS found its market share slowly being chipped away as consumers gravitated towards AirAsia’s no-frills, low-budget business model.

Based on Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd data, MAS had a 49.1% share of passenger movements at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) in 2006 compared with AirAsia’s 13.1%. By 2014, MAS’ share had shrunk to 30.4% while AirAsia’s had grown to 40%.

The national carrier responded by lowering fare prices and increasing capacity, which hurt both companies. But after years of losses and two air tragedies, MAS was forced to restructure. A new management started to rationalise its routes, which led to a capacity reduction and put an end to price dumping. The carrier rebranded itself as Malaysia Airlines Bhd.

AirAsia seems to have come up on top in that rivalry but there is a sense of relief too that years of confrontation with FSCs in a cost-conscious industry has finally come to an end. 

AirAsia CEO Aireen Omar tells The Edge that pricing discipline post the MAS restructuring is “good overall for the whole industry”. “There is now better discipline and revenue management. You see less price dumping. This means we are not killing everybody and ourselves,” she says.

As Malaysia Airlines tries to find its feet, AirAsia, the “World’s Best Low-Cost Airline” for the seventh year running, is facing competition of a different kind. “The landscape has changed since the MAS restructuring,” says Daniel Wong, an analyst with Hong Leong Investment Bank Research.

Competition with FSCs is less direct now. More airlines are establishing their own low-cost divisions to get a slice of the growing LCC pie in Asia without sacrificing their brands or profit margins. For instance, Singapore Airlines has Tigerair and Scoot under its wing while Garuda Indonesia’s budget wing is called Citilink.

“Since Malaysia Airlines, FSCs have realised that they cannot compete directly with an LCC like AirAsia. That is why you see some of them establishing subsidiaries to introduce an LCC. It differentiates them but still puts them in a position to benefit from the growing market,” Wong says.

The skies are getting crowded with more LCCs. CAPA Centre for Aviation reports there were 23 LCCs in Southeast Asia in 2015, with the number of aircraft growing 13%. In the last three years, the number of aircraft in the region has increased from 400 to 600.

In AirAsia’s stronghold — Malaysia — new entrants like Rayani Air are trying to stake a claim in the LCC space.

Hybrid airline Malindo Air — a joint venture between National Aerospace and Defence Industries of Malaysia (51%) and Lion Air of Indonesia (49%) — is growing its presence. It is worth noting that in 2014, Malindo Air saw the biggest growth in international passenger movement at KLIA, growing 854.6% year on year and moving over 698 million passengers. In terms of overall domestic traffic, Malindo came in third, growing 5.5% y-o-y.

AirAsia was second, behind Malaysia Airlines, but its growth slowed to 3.7%. And the landscape could get more challenging as growth in passenger traffic is slowing in Malaysia. In 2015, MAHB recorded passenger traffic of 83.7 million, which was a growth of only 0.4% y-o-y, compared with 4.6% the year before.

Aireen, however, points out that AirAsia’s biggest and most obvious advantage is its vast network.

“Malindo is not just working against AirAsia Malaysia but the whole (AirAsia) group. It is the whole network that they are coming up against … whatever network they [LCCs] have built will have to come up against the whole of the AirAsia network. So, that is something that competitors need to consider when you compete in this region,” she says.

“It is the size of the network — the number of routes and destinations that we have, the frequencies and the main and secondary hubs. Each hub creates its own connectivity, whether domestic or international, and that builds the strength of the network.”

Together with its long-haul sister company AirAsia X Bhd, AirAsia flies to 88 destinations and has a fleet size of 202. This year, it will take delivery of nine A320neo to replace older aircraft or add to its fleet and has deliveries lined up until 2028.

But such a vast network leaves AirAsia fighting on all fronts and at high cost. Each national aviation market, Wong says, has different dynamics that AirAsia must come to terms with. Access to technology and internet service is a problem in Indonesia because AirAsia tickets are mostly sold online. In the Philippines, AirAsia is a fairly late and small entrant, contending with local favourites such as Cebu Pacific Air. In India, regulatory hurdles and opposition from local firms can impede the early stages of a business’ growth. Confronting these challenges will require time.

Of the six geographical segments it operates in, only AirAsia Malaysia and AirAsia Thailand are profitable. For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2015 (FY2015), AirAsia registered a net profit of RM540.9 million on the back of RM6.3 billion in revenue, compared with FY2014’s net profit of RM82.8 million and revenue of RM5.4 billion.

Investors are clearly happy with the news. Since the FY2015 results were announced on Feb 28, AirAsia’s share price has improved 4.29%. Last Friday, it closed at RM1.73, rising a sharp 34% year to date. 

However, Indonesia AirAsia recorded a core loss of RM332.4 million and another RM465.4 million of unabsorbed losses from the previous year. In the Philippines, AirAsia incurred a loss of RM77.9 million while its Indian and Japanese associates lost  RM29.7 million and RM28.6 million respectively in FY2015.

Aireen aims to turn all of AirAsia’s associates around by the end of the year. “We are confident that we have seen the worst and all our associates will do better. The aim is to turn it profitable [this year].”

One reason for her optimism is that operation costs have fallen, thanks to low jet fuel prices. Based on the company’s unaudited income statement for FY2015, AirAsia spent about RM250 million less on fuel than a year ago. Another indicator is that AirAsia Malaysia’s cost per available seat kilometre (CASK) fell 4% y-o-y to 12.61 sen, although CASK-ex fuel rose 9% in FY2015 to 7.26 sen.

A Maybank Research note says AirAsia will enjoy “a significant step-down lower fuel cost” as expensive fuel hedges in 2015 have expired (50% at US$88 per barrel). AirAsia has hedged roughly 30% of its fuel requirements at an average price of US$52 per barrel for 2016.

Another factor is that foreign exchange fluctuations will have less of an impact on its financials this year. Not only has the ringgit stabilised against the US dollar but Air­Asia had also hedged half its forex exposure at 3.22 for its long-term liabilities. This is important because a significant portion of AirAsia’s borrowings is denominated in US dollars. As at Dec 31, 2015, its US dollar debt stood at RM10.9 billion while total debt was RM12.62 billion. Debt and payables due in 2016 amount to RM4 billion, higher than its cash balance of RM2.4 billion.

At the same time, AirAsia still wants to expand and has plans for new routes and destinations, to increase frequencies on existing routes and to develop new secondary hubs. It made Langkawi its latest secondary hub after successfully negotiating a 70% reduction in airport charges.

Aireen says the outlook for AirAsia is “positive” this year and for the longer term. That is likely to be true if it can hold its ground against its regional competitors.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-holds-its-ground

TauRx估值上看620億‧雲頂受外資追捧

（吉隆坡21日訊）雲頂（GENTING，3182，主板貿服組）近期深獲投資者追捧，安聯星展研究相信在主要子公司均欠缺催化劑之際，市場酷愛雲頂或與該公司持股20.7%、估值謠傳上看150億美元（約620億令吉）的新加坡TauRx藥劑公司有關。

 

安聯星展指出，TauRx新發明的阿爾茨海默氏病（AD，也稱老人癡呆症）藥物——LMTX，最早可能在今年7月公佈最終人體測試結果，初期研究顯示LMTX對於治療AD有正面影響。

 

“若LMTX通過測試階段，TauRx則有望一如市場早前估計般，在明年啟動上市計劃，市場早前估計TauRx的估值上看150億美元。以此價值作準，雲頂的每股重估淨資產值（RNAV）可能從目前的9令吉40仙，大增至12令吉37仙。”

但是，若藥物測試持續無法取得突破，TauRx的市值可能被大幅拉低。無論如何，安聯星展目前尚未把TauRx的潛在價值納入估值計算。

據瞭解，雲頂至今在TauRx的投資額估計為1億2千萬美元。

 

雲頂新加坡仍謹慎

博彩業務方面，安聯星展對雲頂新加坡（GENS）的看法依然謹慎，原因是豪賭客業務仍充滿挑戰；不過，另一家博彩臂膀——雲頂大馬（GENM，4715，主板貿服組）展望則相對受看好，原因是雲頂綜合旅遊計劃（GITP）可望成為盈利催化劑。

無論如何，由於GITP投資額已倍增至104億令吉，安聯星展不排除計劃延遲啟用的可能性。

該行還補充，雲頂截至去年6月的外資持股比例高達47%，因此可能深受外資流的影響；值得一提的是，雲頂股價近期水漲船高，正好與外資重新湧入馬股趨勢相吻合。

 

目標價上調

由於投資環境改善，安聯星展研究決定把控股公司折價調低至15%，雲頂目標價因此獲上調至8令吉零5仙，投資評級則維持在“守住”不變。

雲頂今日以9令吉50仙收市，漲18仙。（星洲日報／財經‧報導：李三宇）