Silver’s bull run looks like it has legs.

The metal with the best return this year of any in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is poised for more gains, investors, traders and market data suggest.
“Silver has the best-looking chart among all the commodities,” said Andy Pfaff, who as chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal Group in Cape Town increased his allocation to the metal over the past two weeks. “When silver moves, it really, really moves, and everyone wants to be on the right side of that trade.”

The metal is up more than 12 percent in the last two weeks after underperforming gold in the first quarter on concerns slow Chinese growth would curb demand in the biggest consumer of commodities. While both are precious metals, silver has more uses in manufacturing. Silver traded near $17 an ounce on Wednesday.
Following are charts that suggest the possibility of further gains.

Triggered Stops

Silver rallied Tuesday as big orders triggered automated short covering or stop losses, in which negative bets are closed, according to investors including Afshin Nabavi, head of trading and physical sales at MKS (Switzerland) SA.
Volumes on the Comex in New York reached about triple the 100-day average at times during the day. “We’ve seen some good fund buying that triggered stops through the recent highs in silver,” said David Govett, head of precious metals at broker Marex Spectron Group in London.

ETF Flows

Investors have been flocking to exchange-traded funds backed by silver, with holdings rising 5.6 percent this year to 19,904.1 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Monday. That’s within 2 percent of a record 20,182.2 tons in October 2014.
“There seems to be a bit of momentum building in silver,” Adrian Ash, head of research at online-trading service BullionVault, said by phone from London. “When hot money is looking for a hot trade, silver is increasingly where they place their bets.”

Futures Positioning

Money managers last week increased their net-long positions by 30 percent to 54,885 contracts, the highest since comparable Commodity Futures Trading Commission data begins in 2006.

Gold-Silver Ratio

The ratio of gold to silver prices fell to the lowest level since October on Wednesday after peaking in February at the highest since 2008. It may revert back further, according to dealers such as Mark O’Byrne, a director at brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin.

Charting Course

Technical indicators are showing buy signals. The moving average convergence-divergence indicator has held above the so-called signal line since April 11, suggesting “there is more upside to silver,” said Gary Christie, a senior technical analyst at Trading Central in Ottawa.

“I wouldn’t short this,” Fain Shaffer, president of Infinity Trading Corp. in Indianapolis, said in a phone interview. “Technically and fundamentally, silver is running.”

創新、創業、創投、創富，想創你咩? 强力推荐老占的这篇文章

党的十八屆五中全會提出：「堅持創新發展，必須把創新擺在國家發展全域的核心位置，不斷推進理論創新、制度創新、科技創新、文化創新等各方面創新，讓創新貫穿黨和國家一切工作，讓創新在全社會蔚然成風。」創新的事業必須由創新的人才來幹，人才是創新的核心要素。習近平指出：「人是科技創新最關鍵的因素。創新的事業呼喚創新的人才。我國要在科技創新方面走在世界前列，必須在創新實踐中發現人才、在創新活動中培育人才、在創新事業中凝聚人才。」

一共有十五個「創新」，死未！ 

創新、創業、創投、創富，新資本正驅動強國經濟形成一種向前向上的新的經濟循環，對衝舊經濟、舊循環，打開新一輪上升空間。但事實真的咁簡單？

什麼是「創新」？按Fast Company的排名：Buzzfeed, FB, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet, Taco Bells(?), Everlane, Farfetch, Sama Group…. 這些都是創新。格局，內涵和支那的完全不在一個層次上。

 

Alphabet代表的矽谷文化是10%的人負責賺錢，90%的人負責胡思亂想和發癲的科技「創新」的公司。這些公司的利潤增速每年都只是在10%-20%之間，比起強國創業板裡那些動不動就百分之幾百利潤增長的公司，PE 700的公司，Fast Company的公司，增速一點也不光彩照人，甚至略顯寒酸。華爾街的投資者，或者說美國人從不吝嗇給它高估值。Google的估值一直維持在30倍PE上下。Google股價2004年上市以來一路走高，不考慮分紅，上漲14倍，年複合收益率25%。因為美國人知道，他們不只是在賺錢，而是在不斷挑戰人類極限，它極可能推動整個人類前進。

其實，這不僅是企業之爭，也是國家之爭。因為公司追逐的方向，代表著一個國家的導向、方向與未來。

世界未來的產業格局，可以分為三個維度：

1、1.0的傳統產業

2、2.0的互聯網產業

3、3.0的智慧科技產業

眼下的強國情況是：1.0傳統產業正在推倒重建，2.0產業被劃分完畢（BAT壟斷），3.0世界正在形成。高人挑戰低B仔總有優勢，所以網店可以沖散實體店，互聯網金融沖散工行農行建行，那是因為他們的維度完全不一樣。但支那接下來想挑戰高緯度的，開始遇到阻礙。

China Shop the World，BAT一直在二次元世界裡完成各種收購，目的是為了壯大自己的市值。而Google, Alphabet一直在三維世界上努力向上延伸，引領世界潮流。原來的Google成了Alphabet的全資子公司；在核心互聯網業務之外的公司將脫離原谷歌，變為Alphabet旗下的獨立子公司。最終，Alphabet旗下公司包含了谷歌（包括搜索、廣告、地圖、Youtube視頻服務和移動終端系統安卓）、Calico（抗衰老生物技術）、Life Science（智能醫用健康設備）、Nest（物聯網相關）、Fiber（光纖寬帶服務）、Google Ventures（風投業務）和Google Capital（投資基金）以及Google X（無人駕駛汽車、眼鏡等研發部門）這八大子公司。

依靠資源去發展是工業時代的思路，顯然已經不再適用這個以Data為靈魂的資訊時代。那些因為掌握了某種資源，就可以一本萬利、坐享其成的年代一去不返了！況且未來最核心競爭力的是「創新」。而不是獨佔「資源」。

強國資本也在努力入侵世界資源。昨天石油跌了7%，2013年2月，中海油公司花費了151億美元的鉅資，在加拿大Calgary收購了一家叫尼克森的葉岩油氣公司。為了獲得其股權，中海油還需額外幫尼克森項頂了43億美元的債務。當時的油價約為90—100美元之間， 而現在，油價正在每桶30多美元上下痛苦掙扎，已經有人在討論人類停止開採、使用石油的時間表，可見支那人的戰略投資是多麼的愚昧，。

當Alphabet, Facebook F8在引領世界三維產業的潮流時，很多人卻還把資源從二元世界逆向回流至傳統產業。

迪士尼不僅是卡通片的代名詞，它更是「創新」的同義，一家已經上市50多年的老牌上市公司，早在1957年就在紐交所掛牌上市，目前總市值約1700億美元。1996年，迪士尼以190億美元收購了ABC以及其附屬的電視網、ESPN體育頻道等業務，目前這些業務仍然占迪士尼總收入的四成以上。輕易擊敗Comcast、21世紀霍士、時代華納、Viacom等對手，市值達1870億美元。

過去五年，華特迪士尼公司(The Walt Disney Company, DIS)的股價由約US$30起步，最高升至US$120，升幅高達四倍，跑贏杜瓊斯及納斯達克指數。若以2008年金融海嘯期間低位計，至今迪士尼股價的最高升幅超過10倍，是金融海嘯後美國市場表現最好的藍籌之一。

迪士尼公司2015年的營業收入和純利水準遠超中國各大互聯網巨頭。根據財務報表，迪士尼2015年的總收入約合港幣4095億元(525億美元)，這一收入水準超過了騰訊、阿里巴巴和百度（BAT）三家2015年總收入之和。這三巨頭的營業收入合計不足2500億人民幣。而且，迪士尼的純利也在BAT之上，純利約合655億港元(84億美元)，相當於阿里巴巴同期的2.39倍。迪士尼營業收入超過BAT之和，2015年純利超過馬雲的2倍 。

你什麼時候才能真正的Force Awaken？你睡醒時，就是可以由第一種人升華到第二、三種人。我們的迪士尼項目要人，最好有亞洲電商經驗。可私信，非誠勿擾。

‘AirAsia biggest beneficiary of Asean Open Skies policy’

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on April 18, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd, Asia’s largest budget airline by passengers, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the Asean Open Skies policy, which came into effect on Jan 1, 2015, due to the airline’s significant regional presence.
National University of Singapore head of air law and policy programme Professor Alan Tan is of the view that the policy, which aims to liberalise the aviation market in Asean, will ultimately benefit low-cost carriers (LCCs).
Although implementation commenced in January last year, Tan noted that Southeast Asia’s skies had yet to be transformed into a single aviation market like that in the European Union, due to limited “freedom” traffic rights.
“What we have under the [Asean] policy now is the third, fourth and fifth freedom rights. For example, the third and fourth freedom rights of the skies enable a Singaporean carrier to fly from Singapore to Jakarta and back, while the fifth freedom right allows an airline from Singapore to fly to Kuala Lumpur and then onwards to Bangkok, and back using the same route,” Tan told The Edge Financial Daily in an interview in Singapore last week.
He said for open skies to become effective, the policy needs to allow unrestricted seventh-freedom operations, which enable a Malaysian airline, for example, to park its planes in Singapore and operate routes between two foreign countries, such as Singapore and the Philippines, and not just offering flights to Malaysia.
Tan said the absence of the seventh freedom right is due to protectionist policies by the respective Asean governments to defend their respective national airlines.
“In order to have a true single aviation market, all these restrictions must be progressively lifted. With the restrictions, Asean’s skies are only partially opened, not fully.
“If you look at the geography, the airlines that would benefit the most would be the low-cost carriers, as most flights within Asean are at most three hours long. The big winners would be carriers like AirAsia and Indonesia’s Lion Air,” he said.
Tan pointed to the absence of the seventh freedom right as the reason why AirAsia had to set up different units in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.
He believes AirAsia would be the first to consolidate its various units under one group if the restrictions were to be lifted.
Still, Tan said it is still a long journey towards the full implementation of a single-aviation market in Asean. He said beyond economic regulations, such as the implementation of the seventh freedom right, technical regulations must also be in place.
This includes the harmonisation of technical standards among the Asean nations in terms of aircraft inspection and pilot training. This is so that the member nations will have mutual confidence in each other’s standards across the region.
“This will be the next challenging phase in establishing a single market. It’s not in the Asean Open Skies project yet, but it will probably be included in the next phase,” he said.
Meanwhile, Tan sees state-owned full-service carriers losing out under the open skies deal as short-haul flights will be dominated by LCCs.
“I think the big national carriers need to fly further, and capitalise on medium-haul and long-haul routes because short-haul routes are ultimately an LCC game,” he said.
Tan pointed out that some national carriers had tried to spread their risks by establishing an LCC brand to take advantage of short-haul routes. They include Singapore Airlines’ Tigerair, Garuda’s Citilink, Thai Airways’ Thai Smile and Malaysia Airlines’ Firefly, he added.
“The multi-brand strategy has its supporters, although some think it’s a controversial strategy as there is the risk of cannibalisation. The cheaper airlines could cannibalise the parent airlines’ traffic.
“Again, clearly the winners are going to be the LCCs within Asean, but legacy carriers or full-service carriers will continue to have a niche in the business-class segment, and for those passengers who prefer comfort and service over cost,” he said.
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd aviation analyst Mohshin Aziz concurred, saying that AirAsia stands to gain the most from the Asean Open Skies policy due to its significant presence in three out of the 10 Asean member countries.
“Under the current situation, AirAsia is the biggest beneficiary. The first step of the policy makes it easier for airlines to fly within Asean countries. As such, airlines with more operations across the region will benefit more, and right now AirAsia has the most operations in the region,” he said.
Mohshin also sees airlines that are regressive losing out under the open skies agreement.
“Those that are regressive and inward-looking, for example state-owned carriers, stand to lose out. Their respective national borders have been opened, but these carriers are still focused within their borders, ignoring the greater part of the bigger border.
“They will have to come to terms with reality and realise that they have to step out of their comfort zone,” said Mohshin.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/%E2%80%98airasia-biggest-beneficiary-asean-open-skies-policy%E2%80%99

RBC將金價預估大漲13%！四張圖看懂為何年底上1300美元

黃金期貨價格今年第一季跳升 16%，創 30 年來最佳首季表現。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 如今將今年底目標價大漲 13%，由原本預期的每盎司 1150 美元調高至 1300 美元，因美國通貨膨脹再起，但聯準會 (Fed) 的貨幣政策立場卻維持寬鬆，可能引發金市重現 1970 年代的漲勢。

RBC週日 (10 日) 發布報告預估，今年平均金價將較原本預期再漲 9%。週一紐約 4 月交貨金價又勁揚 1.8%，報每盎司 1258 美元。該行看多金價的理由，包括中國及印度等實體黃金主要進口國的需求穩定、實質利率低落推高黃金的保值吸引力、全球國家央行對黃金的胃口仍強，以及黃金 ETF 淨流入資金強勁。

RBC 指出，Fed 主席葉倫 (Janet Yellen) 上個月於紐約經濟俱樂部 (Economic Club of New York) 發言時表示，「實質聯邦基金利率」的中立水準很可能接近 0%；而若以美國核心個人消費支出 (core PCE) 來計算，目前的利率水準甚至還更低，只有 –1.25%。

此外，Fed 決策官員開始越來越擔憂，通膨可能逐漸脫離較長期的穩定水準，但卻是下行，這意味美國實質利率降低的機率很可能增加。Fed 立場轉變，加上今年頭兩個月全球市場劇烈震盪後，投資人預期有此結果，驅使黃金 ETF 爆發可能是 2011 年以來首見的持續買氣。

圖一。黃線：過去12年金價走勢。斜線格：圖一。黃線：過去12年金價走勢。斜線格：黃金ETF持金量。

RBC 表示，全球黃金 ETF 的實金需求，是這波金價漲勢主要動力，從圖一可見。其中規模最大的道富財富黃金指數基金 (SPDR Gold Trust)(GLD-US)，今年來增持的黃金規模眼看將創 2012 年以來新高。而從圖二也可看出，今年來黃金 ETF 持金量與黃金淨多部位一同攀高，帶動金價漲勢。

圖二。紅線：歷年金價走勢。黃格：歷年ETF持金量變化。藍格：歷年金價淨多倉變化。

RBC 解釋，在正常環境下，當市場預期通膨而非通縮，但通膨率卻不高甚至走跌，則實質利率──即名目利率減去通膨率──傾向正值。在這種情況下，持有黃金的成本便相當於該實質利率，使得金價走勢與實質利率的走勢呈現負相關。

圖三。左：過去55年美國通膨率(淺藍線)與美國10年公債殖利率(深藍線)趨勢比對圖。右：歷年美國實質利率線圖

RBC 以美國 5 年期通膨率交換 (inflation swap) 代表預期通膨水準，以美國 10 年期公債殖利率代表預期的長期利率，以此來估算市場預期的實質利率走勢，如圖三所顯示。RBC 發現，近年實質利率走勢似乎重蹈 1970 年代的覆轍。

四。左：過去10年金價(深藍線)與美國實質利率(淺藍線)走勢比對圖。右：美國實質利率與隱含金價水準連動估價圖。 此外 RBC 也見到，自 2008 年以來，金價與美國實質利率的負相關連動性高漲，如圖四所示。根據歷史上實質利率與預估金價的連動估算，若美國實質利率為 –0.5%，暗示金價應該會來到每盎司 1380 美元水準；實質利率若 –1%，則金價便可能衝上 1546 美元

賺錢的方式已經徹底變了(二)

http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/04/blog-post_12.html
一個在東莞開工廠的朋友告訴我，他的工廠今年還沒有接到一個訂單。事實上，不管是民企、中小企，廠佬、甚至銀行裁員的大趨勢已經在發生，金融危機前的2007年以來美國和歐洲的銀行業雇員數量從最高點減少了80萬人。所以，超人才說目前的經濟是20年最差。

進入2016年，很多人發現錢比以前難賺了，實際上是賺錢的邏輯變化了。現在的世界，進入了更高層次的「資本經濟」的時代。要想學會資本思維，必須先來深刻理解一下什麼是「資本」。「資本」Capital僅僅是指貨幣Currency嗎？不是。資本是對資源Resources的支配權，通過資源支配帶來更多的支配權叫「資本運作」，通過「資本運作」優化和配置社會財富，實現社會效率的最大化就是「資本運作」的社會價值。

從經濟層面講，今後社會上只有三類人：1. 資源者(普通人)。2. 配置者(橋樑、Broker)。3. VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人(玩家)。按照這三種不同性質的角色扮演，今後個人如何獲得財富？無非只有三條管道：出售資源、配置資源、掌握資本。

我們需要明白的是：第3種人賺的錢就比第2種人多，第2種人賺的錢比第1種人多。因此，第1種人在努力進化到第2種人，而第2種人在拼命進化到第3種人。

廢青天生具有資本的人是極少的，大部分第3種人都是從第1種人或者第2種人進化過來的，雖然目前這種進化已經越來越難了，但還不是沒有希望，因為以後會更加的困難。這就是階級鬥爭，階級間向上流動力減少。

關鍵就只有兩點：你有幾聰明？或者你積累的資本有多少？同時，這也回答了另一個問題：賺錢的方法千奇八怪，為何偏偏選擇「打工」這一種？

有人扮旅遊達人、美容達人、金融才俊、食評家、組黨、弄個什麼協會自己做會長、都可以呃飲呃食呃上鏡，你唔係比佢地蠢呀嘛?

我們先看看第3種人 ---- VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人(幕後玩家)

這個社會的財富，看似是屬於分散的第1種「資源者」的，實際上卻是歸第2種人「配置者」享用的。但在本質上，更多的是屬於第3種人。

「資本家」跟「企業家」的最大區別是：資本家不直接參與企業的經營和管理，而是在幕後操縱企業宏觀思路，企業的產品是各類消費品等，而資本家的產品就是各個企業。通過投資、入股、並購、重組的方式，將一個企業的未來把控到自己手中，孫正義投資了馬雲，成全了阿里巴巴，馬雲就是企業家，而孫正義就是資本家。孫正義手裡有N個馬雲，成了日本首富。再比如巴菲特、Charlie Munger專門坐在屋企投資，操縱他的佈局，他也是資本家。超人投了Ambidio，他也是資本家。

據說，巴菲特之所以拒絕投資在美股上市的強國概念股股票，是因為以下原因：

1.      傳統企業的道德瑕疵太嚴重，只會跟隨、抄襲與複製甚至盜竊，唯利是圖，沒有丁點的創新。

2.      傳統企業既沒有社會責任，又無法挖掘主要消費者的購買力。

3.      科技進步日新月異削弱傳統企業的管道和模式壁壘。

即使傳統企業滿足上述3個要求，巴菲特也不一定就會投資美股中國概念股，因為中國企業核心價值觀存在著重大瑕疵：功利主義、拜金主義、造假和賣假貨......與巴菲特對管理層所要求的「無為、無我、無私」差距太大。

OK，逆向操作，你是廢青，廢中，你要由第1種人在努力進化到第2種人，第3種人咁就要瞭解逆向思維，「傳統企業」的相反，就是「創新」；「抄襲與複製甚至盜竊」的相反，就是「原創」；沒有社會責任，咁弄個NGO囉，回饋社會；無法挖掘主要消費者的購買力，咁咪用Big Data挖掘客戶潛在需要，要突破「傳統企業的管道和模式壁壘」，咁咪用互聯網、電商、另闢通路囉，我都寫左N篇啦；你連$10,000投資股票的錢都冇，我地咪搞了$1也可以投資的私募基金出來；甚至，你Download FDT隻App玩虛擬Forex，期貨，細路，你打爆機，一樣有US$100,000野落袋。

美國是自由市場經濟，但是為什麼叫資本主義社會呢？而不叫自有市場主義社會呢？因為在這樣的社會，「資本」是度量和決定一切的標準。在地獄鬼國，你富甲一方也沒用，中聯辦隨時能把你抄家，你有錢也要去給權力行賄，去買官。而你只要有了權力，哪怕身無分文，一樣生活富庶、吃喝不愁，所以是官本位。

你班友的出路在於：抱著壯士斷臂的決心，認清這個時代賦予新的歷史使命，看勢審勢，今後個人及企業的發展邏輯只有一條：你創造多大價值，你就可以獲取多少財富。所謂無破則不立，舊的不去，新的不來。

那到底怎麼樣從第1種人進化到第3種人？(未完待續)

賺錢的方式已經徹底變了! 賺錢的方式已經徹底變了

 

四月是業績期，阿里巴巴2015年第四季度財報顯示其營收為人民幣345.43億元(約合53.33億美元)，同比增長32%。純利為人民幣124.56億元(約合19.23億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣59.83億元增長108%。

http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/04/blog-post_11.html

阿里巴巴發佈截至2015年12月31日的2016財年第三季度財報。營收為人民幣345.43億元(約合53.33億美元)，同比增長32%。純利為人民幣124.56億元(約合19.23億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣59.83億元增長108%。基於非美國通用會計準則，淨利潤為人民幣163.58億元(約合25.25億美元)，較上年同期的人民幣131.15億元增長25%。收入利潤雙雙強勁增長，超越華爾街預期。

騰訊控股公佈截至2015年12月31日未經審核的第四季度綜合業績及經審核的全年綜合業績。2015年第四季度，騰訊總收入為人民幣304.41億元，比去年同期增長45%，比去年同期增長28%。2015年全年，騰訊總收入為1028.63億元(158.41億美元)，比去年同期增長30%。騰訊權益持有人應占盈利為324.10億元(49.91億美元)，比去年同期增長31%。

百度第四季度總營收為人民幣186.99億元(約合28.87億美元)，比去年同期增長33.1%；淨利潤為人民幣247.12億元(約合38.15億美元)，比去年同期增長663.0%，因計入百度與攜程、去哪兒股權所帶來的淨收入。百度2015年總營收為人民幣663.82億元(約合102.48億美元)，比2014年增長35.3%。百度2015年淨利潤為人民幣336.64億元(約合51.97億美元)，比2014年增長155.1%。

京東發佈2015財年第四季度及全年財報。第四季度，京東營收為人民幣546億元(約合84億美元)，同比增長57%。淨虧損為人民幣76億元(約合12億美元)，而上年同期淨虧損人民幣5億元，淨虧損人民幣6.562億元(約合1.013億美元)，而上年同期淨利潤人民幣8380萬元。2015全年淨收入為1813億元(約280億美元)，同比增長58%。2015全年非美國通用會計準則下(Non-GAAP)歸屬普通股股東的淨虧損為8.505億元(約1.313億美元)。

再看看Numbers，环球老虎财经166720億、177095億、183213億、221049億，以上分別是中、農、建、工四大行最新公佈的總資產。他們過去是睡著都能賺錢的金融業巨無霸，但如今，世道一變。四大行近期公佈的2015年度財報慘不忍睹，純利陷入龜速增長，高層流失加劇，20年來首現主動離職潮，與此相反，Fintech風頭正勁。馬雲的網商銀行手機App正式上線；萬達推出消費信用服務平臺「快立借」；「京東金條」橫空出世，固守老舊體制的四大行曾擁有最多的金融用戶，卻眼白白看著後來者攻城掠地，死不足惜。

對於強國銀行業來說，利潤增速兩位數的時代已經過去。四大行交上了近十年最差業績，淨利潤均陷入低水準增長。

去年底農行盈利1805.82億元，按年增長0.7%，相當於日賺4.95億元。至此國有四大行全部公佈了2015年經營業績：中行淨賺1794.17億元，同比增長1.25%，相當於日賺4.92億元；工行淨賺2777億元，比上年增長0.5%，相當於日賺7.6億元；而建行淨賺2281.45億元，較上年增長0.14%，日賺6.25億元；四大行在2015年共賺8660.36億元，相當於日賺23.72億。

我在信報也寫過，「沒有行長的銀行」(2015年12月4日) ，2015年共有超過50位銀行高管離職、有D跳樓去。涉及的崗位有董事、行長、副行長、風險總監等，有的則是分支行行長，有的分支行行長甚至公開說，不想再回銀行。傳統銀行外部競爭壓力大、內部管控無力、員工太多、網點成本太高、體制化僵硬、盈利模式已死，最令銀行業坐立不安的恐怕要數不斷流失的銀行業人才了。強國銀行業正經歷一場歷史性的離職潮，這是20年以來首次出現的主動離職潮！

興業銀行副行長離職去了騰訊；中國銀行副行長離職去了樂視；華夏銀行副行長離職去了蘇寧；渤海銀行行長離職去了萬達；杭州銀行行長、建設銀行網路金融部老總離職去了阿里；工商銀行兩大互聯網金融帶頭人辭職自己搞銀行；招行前董事長索性自己搞FDT。

國務院批轉國家發改委《關於2016年深化經濟體制改革重點工作意見》中提到，進一步擴大民間資本進入銀行業，發展民營銀行。這個意見無疑為當下民營銀行、民資金融野的大時代趨勢再添一把火。

馬雲：阿里金融大帝國

馬雲的金融帝國，以螞蟻金服為主，以支付寶為核心。目前螞蟻帝國的人口相當於半家工商銀行，1.25家建設銀行，4家招商銀行，20家北京銀行。

　　

短短兩年，馬雲幾乎完成了全金融牌照的佈局，金融業務遍佈整個生態。其中支付領域，支付寶獨攬80%的中國移動支付市場，碾壓銀聯。理財餘額寶被稱為寄居在銀行身上的吸血鬼，兩周吸走66億，200天從0到2500億，顫抖中國銀行業，堪稱天弘神話。覆蓋支付、證券、保險、信託、貸款、眾籌、征信、銀行、基金、理財等10大金融主要領域，絕對中國第一金融大帝國。

支付寶今天已經打劫了傳統銀行的「存、貸、匯」三大核心功能，充分融入了蝗蟲的生活，動搖了傳統銀行的肋骨。3月9日，馬雲的網商銀行手機App正式上線，打開統一的入口為大家服務。「馬雲銀行」終於從傳說變成現實。

　　

馬化騰：騰訊金融大帝國

看到騰訊金融，立馬會想到微信紅包。目前騰訊金融的業務已覆蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、證券、銀行、征信、基金、眾籌等9大領域，覆蓋整個金融生態，猛追馬雲。微信還透露理財業務資金保有量已突破1000億，並開通微信紅包直接理財功能。同時在面對今年春晚發紅包這件事情上，去年春晚微信紅包一夜飆紅，短短幾天，騰訊完成了支付寶8年的綁卡量。馬化騰更是出動整個騰訊資源勢必與馬雲血拼到底。讓金融通過社交擴散到各行各業。

今天的微信平均每天有5.7億人登陸，意味著每天登陸微信的人數接近中國人口一半。用社交來反哺金融的馬化騰，正把金融這件事上升到了騰訊最高戰略。

　　

劉強東：京東金融大帝國

一季度蝕7億、二季度蝕5億、三季度再蝕虧5億。就是這樣一家用虧損換未來的企業，今天市值超2400億，他就是京東，中國的亞馬遜。今天京東的金融業務也在虧損，前9個月蝕6.77億，但京東金融的估值已到460億，還將於2016完成上市。

　　

今天的京東金融的業務涵蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、證券、征信、眾籌等7大領域，相比前面阿里、騰訊主要就是少了銀行，不過京東已經與中信銀行達成戰略合作。京東金融保持飛速成長，其代表產品「京東白條」一年時間同比增長700%，成為京東金融的首要戰略。

　　

李彥宏：百度金融大帝國

阿里、騰訊、京東的金融佈局日益明朗，百度卻無聲無息，它是中國最官僚的互聯網公司，曾經中國三大互聯網巨頭之一，今天卻被我們遺忘，除了Search，一無是處，當我們所有人都為他感到焦慮，覺得他應該退出BAT的時候，所有人卻目瞪口呆了！

8天時間，百度拿下銀行+保險，成立百信銀行+百安保險，兩個月，百度錢包猛增520%，隨即，百度立馬成立金融服務事業群，將金融業務上升到百度最高戰略。消失了整整一年的百度，突然重回視線，閃電般的速度完成金融佈局，一時間震驚了整個金融行業，目前百度金融業務已覆蓋支付、貸款、理財、保險、銀行、征信、基金等7大領域。再看看股價。

進入2016年，很多人發現錢比以前難賺了，實際上是賺錢的邏輯變化了。現在的世界，進入了更高層次的資本經濟的時代。

什麼是「資本經濟」時代呢？簡而言之，它就是在市場經濟的基礎上加了一根杠杆，在物理學上杠杆”的作用是利用力臂將力量放大，從而可以翹起更大品質物體。

從經濟層面講，今後社會上只有三類人：

第一，資源者。他們是資源的最直接擁有者，依靠出賣自己的資源生存，比如農夫靠耕地、工人靠體力、醫生靠技能、作家靠寫作，還有老師、律師等等。

第二，配置者。資源是誰的不重要，關鍵要有資源配置權。這類人依靠配置資源賺錢，從事資源的投入、整合、運營、產出工作，以企業家為主，Startup創業者也屬於此類。

第三，VC, PE, Angel資本家、投資人。他們離資源最遠，但是所有資源卻統統歸他們掌控，他們只躲在幕後玩操作遊戲。風險投資者就屬於此類人，比如孫正義投資馬雲，阿里巴巴上市使他大獲成功、李嘉誠投資台妹Ambidio。資本家無國界，他們可以控制全球資源流向；可以通過金融體系支配大量別人的資產。

所以，資源名義上都是資源者的，實際上都是資本家的。看一個人能量多大，關鍵是他能配置多少資源。

我們的私募基金又到一年一度的吸納會員時期(6月)，有興趣可私信，本季季報全部己發出。http://synergychinafunds.com/

Alibaba acquires controlling stake in Lazada

Alibaba Group, the guys behind global trading site Alibaba.com have just acquired a large holding stake of eCommerce platform Lazada, following an acquisition of shares and a USD500 million investment in the company.

The transaction is expected to help the brands (and distributors) that are already on Alibaba’s platform to gain access to the SEA consumer market through Lazada. As of the moment, Lazada operates in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam; with a combined estimated Internet user base of 200 million, being well known for having a huge variety of good for sale at a below retail prices.
Considering a lot of people do sales online, the move is likely to help boost eCommerce in the region somewhat for both companies.
“Globalization is a critical strategy for the growth of Alibaba Group today and well into the future,” said Michael Evans, President of Alibaba. “With the investment in Lazada, Alibaba gains access to a platform with a large and growing consumer base outside China, a proven management team and a solid foundation for future growth in one of the most promising regions for eCommerce globally. This investment is consistent with our strategy of connecting brands, distributors and consumers wherever they are and support our ecosystem expansion in Southeast Asia to better serve our customers.”
As for us consumers, this means that online shopping on either platform is just going to get better with more diverse options on an already incredibly wide spectrum of goods available on both Lazada and Alibaba. Do you think this move will be good for everyone? let us know in the comments.

CEO on AirAsia’s direction ahead

Kamarudin is in the process of selecting the institutions and the best deal for AirAsia’s proposed private placement.

JUST off a flight from London, Tan Sri Tony Fernandes met up with StarBizWeek senior editor of business B.K. SIDHU to talk about the funding for the RM1bil share placement he and his partner, Datuk Kamarudin Meranun, are subscribing to and other goings-on at the AirAsia group.

Name the institutions that you said are willing to lend you and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun money to take up the 559 million placement shares.

We are not in a position to do that. We have a lot of offers and since the announcement, new institutions have come in. My expertise is not in that, it’s (Datuk) Kamarudin (Meranun). He is in the process of selecting the institutions and the best deal. But it is encouraging to see two things: firstly, the share price going up, and secondly, the quality of institutions that see value in the transaction, which ultimately means value in AirAsia.

Are local institutions involved?

 

Of course, it is a range.

When do you expect to wrap up the funding?

I don’t know. Our shareholders’ meeting is on May 9 and we have two months after that to fund it. But we already have deals on the table, and we would not have made the announcement if we did not already have a deal on the table.

How much of the portion is in cash and debt?

I do not know. We have to see what comes up, what is the cost of the interest. If it is very low, then we go by that (the portion of debt will be higher).

How much cash do you have?

Something I would not reveal for a variety of reasons.

You are said to be highly geared ...

Does it matter? Why is this an issue? If we are highly geared, then who would want to lend us money in the first place? People say a lot of things when you are in the public eye. They say this and that. People also make a lot of insinuations ... the proof is really in the pudding.

Why did you take your eyes off AirAsia to focus on other businesses? Then came the GMT Research report talking about accounting irregularities ...

Leadership is not about staying there forever. Leadership is about making sure that if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, the company grows, and it is not dominated by CEOs. That has nothing to do with GMT.

GMT wrote stuff that I have said from the beginning was sensational.

I was deliberately planning a leadership succession.

After GMT, and more importantly QZ8051 (AirAsia Indonesia’s flight that crashed into the Java Sea on Dec 29, 2014), both of us, me and Kamarudin, felt that we should steer AirAsia (back). We see tremendous value and tremendous upside for AirAsia. So, it is a combination of both the factors, GMT and QZ that motivated us to get back.

That does not mean that we have to be here for the next 50 years. It has to evolve from the founders and beyond. But I still believe, me and Din are motivated, so we are focused on doing it.

But what upsets me most about GMT was that they said we were not transparent. How could they write a report like that because we were very transparent? We never hid the fact that we had problems in AirAsia Philippines and AirAsia Indonesia. We never hide the problems and issues.

But I would say this is the problem with the stock market sometimes. On one side, you are questioning me and saying people say we have too much cash. Six months ago, you were asking if we were going to have a rights issue to raise cash because GMT said we had too little cash.

Investors do not look at the long term. Ten years ago, people were saying why did we invest in AirAsia Thailand. But now, this company is worth almost the same as AirAsia Bhd although it took time to get to where it is. So, different countries have different issues and problems.

Ryanair, for example, does not have to show how Ryanair Poland or other units are doing. It is all part of Ryanair.

Actually, AirAsia Indonesia contributes tremendously to AirAsia Malaysia, which makes money from all the routes in Indonesia. India is also a very big market and it has a big role for AirAsia Malaysia and AirAsia Thailand, but we must look at AirAsia as one company.

Having said that, AirAsia Philippines and AirAsia Indonesia are well on the way to becoming the next AirAsia Thailand. As for AirAsia India, I have been very bullish about it. It will make money.

India is the second largest country by population. How can you not be bullish about that, with such tourism activities, diversity of cultures and such history? And we are the only foreign airline there and low cost at that. Such value there. You know how much people will pay to get into that market?

We now have a new management team there and they are all very bullish about the business.

And the rumours, especially for a brand like AirAsia, including about myself, will never stop, never cease. We rather just focus on the results.

What about your earnings outlook?

It appears positive at the moment. Another slight boost from the ringgit, it has strengthened since the past few weeks. Oil has remained low. But to me, oil and ringgit are secondary to demand. Demand seems quite strong at the moment. Obviously, Malindo Air is becoming a full-service carrier and KLIA2 is virtually our terminal, which helps. I think we have been able to create demand.

But the cloud in the skies is the constant lack of industry players looking at cost and efficiency, and that is something we need to sort out by the side.

It is not about airlines absorbing the cost, we need to keep our fares low to stimulate demand.

But if you keep pushing the cost factor up, we will show that every time the cost increases, the numbers will drop. AirAsia will stimulate air travel with low fares and Malaysia should not lose its advantage on low cost. The industry is doing well, but please do not kill the goose that lays the golden egg, which is low cost.

Nine months on, how has it been?

To be honest, if you look at our financial numbers nine months ago, they were very good as well. This is why sometimes with the financial community, they do not look deep enough into the numbers. I have often criticised the accountants for not making the accounts clear to the general public.

Our accounts should be consolidated. It is not that we cannot own 100% of the company, but these are the regulations and we have to change.

But I was never worried about the stock price as what goes down must go up. This is a good company, solid, and the best way to answer all this is with the results. We delivered profits in the fourth quarter and we are looking forward to delivering them in the first quarter of this year.

The beauty of AirAsia, as one banker put it, is the cream always rises to the top, and with AirAsia, it has been very resilient the past 14 years. Despite the negativity, we have remained focused. I do not believe that fundamentally anything has changed since the past nine months, then and now. Of course, for me, what a 2015 it was with QZ8051 and the GMT report.

What if there is another GMT-like report in the future?

We will stand up and take it, be open and transparent and the market will come back.

So what’s next?

AirAsia is a jewel, it is three businesses and potentially adding a fourth.

It is the passenger service business which generates a huge cash flow, the profitable ancillary business, and the equity business where we do partnerships with Expedia, ACE, etc.

Many companies have not realised the power of data and we are investing heavily to understand the customer so that we are able to offer a better experience by using data.

It will not be long before you log in to our website and it will be personalised and customised to your needs. We will be able to offer you deals, be it for travel, food, duty-free or even foreign exchange.

We are rich in data and there is huge potential for monetisation of that data. We are light years ahead of the competition on that and are excited about what our data scientists have created. We will have a tremendous amount of efficiency and potential to up-sell to our travellers and also make the travelling experience much easier and better. And finally, we have got an agreement with KLIA2 for mobile phone buys and check-in. It is about capturing customer behaviour and giving them what they want.

Essentially, the first 10 years of AirAsia was about building a brand and the next ten years about using technology to improve revenue, reduce cost and make flying a much better experience.

So, the value of AirAsia is really being missed. There is no business like AirAsia that stretches from India to Japan, has 70 million consumers and the data that we have.

Will you be getting more planes this year?

We still remain quite cautious, but a bit more than last year, about eight this year, with the first Neo in October. It comes with six more seats from 180 to 186. These are lightweight seats. The interior is much nicer with much more baggage space besides a 15% reduction in cost.

The total fleet in operation is 200 and on order is 306. The deliveries are for the next 10 years. Don’t forget a lot of new planes are up for replacement. Our first plane is coming up to 12 years.

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AirAsia - Proposed Placement to Tune Live

AirAsia announced that it has entered into a conditional subscription agreement with Tune Live Sdn Bhd, which is equally owned by both Tan Sri Dr Anthony Francis Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Bin Meranun. The proposed placement will see an issuance of 559m new ordinary shares, representing 16.7% of its enlarged share base which would increase its capital from 2.8bn to 3.3bn shares of RM0.10 each. The shares will be issued at an issue price of RM1.84 per share via cash. We are downgrading our call to Neutral due to limited upside. Our new target price of RM2.00 (previously RM1.88) is pegged on 8x FY17F (previously 10x FY16F). Our forecast is based on enlarged share capital and we include in the new additional income from maintenance of leased aircrafts to its associates for FY16F-18F.

• Details of the placement. The indicative price of RM1.84 for the placement was based on its 5-market day volume weighted average price (VWAP) up to 31st March 2016, and on the basis of no dividend being declared or paid. Based on an adjusted issue price of RM1.80 (on the basis of the new share issuance not being entitled to the first and final dividend of FY15), the exercise will raise cash proceeds of c.RM1bn, and is expected to be completed by 3QFY16 subject to approval from shareholders and any other regulatory authorities (e.g. Bursa Securities and BNM).
• Utilisation of proceeds. The gross proceeds of c.RM1bn from the placement will be used for the prepayment and repayment of debt, financing of aircraft acquisitions, engines and parts, pre-delivery payments of aircraft, general corporate and working capital, and the expenditures. It is expected to generate an annual interest savings of c.RM10.7m from the prepayment of bank borrowings, while net gearing level will reduce from 2.0x to 1.6x for FY16F.
• Rationale of the placement. We understand that a placement exercise is the best option for the group to strengthen its balance sheet without having to incur additional borrowings and related interest expenses compared to issuing Medium Term Notes. However, it is expected to have a dilutive effect on AirAsia’s EPS. Based on the enlarged share capital of 3.3bn shares, our forecasted FY17 EPS will be diluted by approximately 7% to 25.0 sen from 28.7 sen.
• Downgrade to Neutral. We are downgrading our call to Neutral due to limited upside. Our new target price of RM2.00 (previously RM1.88) is pegged on 8x FY17F (previously 10x FY16F). The reduction in multiples is due to on-going volatility in oil and currencies. The forecast is based on enlarged share capital and we include in the new additional income from maintenance of leased aircrafts to its associates for FY16F-18F.

Airasia to raise RM1bil via share placements with founders.

AirAsia to raise RM1b via share placement with founders

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 1 Apr 2016, 05:44 PM  

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         By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | April 1, 2016 : 6:03 PM MYT    

KUALA LUMPUR (April 1): AirAsia Bhd has entered into a share subscription agreement with its founders Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun to raise RM1.01 billion.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, the budget airline said it has entered into a conditional subscription agreement with Fernandes and Kamarudin through Tune Live Sdn Bhd, to issue and subscribe 559 million new shares in AirAsia at RM1.84 per share, in order to raise RM1.01 billion.
The issue price represents a 0.6% premium to the airline's last closing price of RM1.83 and a 31.4% premium to the 12-month volume weighted average price of RM1.41 per share.
Tune Live, which is currently dormant, is equally-owned by Fernandes and Kamarudin. Upon completion of the proposed shares issuance, Tune Live will hold 15.7% of the enlarged issued capital of AirAsia.
As at March 28, Fernandes and Kamarudin hold directly and indirectly, a total of 18.9% shareholding in AirAsia. The duo hold a combined 18.87% stake in AirAsia via another private vehicle named Tune Air Sdn Bhd.
Post the proposed shares issuance, Fernandes and Kamarudin will hold a 32.5% stake in AirAsia, just slightly under the 33% threshold to make a mandatory general offer to the airline's minority shareholders.
AirAsia said it will use the raised proceeds to reduce its gearing from 2.79 times now to 2.22 times post the proposed shares issuance, financing of aircraft, engines and parts, pre-delivery payments of aircraft, general corporate and working capital, and the expenditures related to the exercise. About 10.3% or RM103.82 million of the funds will be used to partially fund the construction of its new headquarters at klia2, which is scheduled to be completed this year.
According to AirAsia, it will convene an extraordinary general meeting to seek approval from its non-interested shareholders for the proposed shares issuance.
On the rationale, AirAsia said the shares issuance is the most appropriate means of fund-raising, since the terms for its US$1 billion Multicurrency Medium Term Note (MTN) Programme which was announced on Jan 6, 2016, were not favourable due to weak market sentiments.
"The proposed shares issuance is expected to generate annual interest savings of approximately RM10.69 million, arising from the pre-payment of bank borrowings," it added.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances and subject to all relevant approvals being obtained, AirAsia targets to complete the corporate exercise by the third quarter of 2016.
Shares in AirAsia will resume trading next Monday (April 4). The stock was not traded today. It last closed at RM1.83 per share, for a market value of RM4.93 billion.

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