WORLD OFFICIAL GOLD HOLDINGS

	International Financial Statistics, April 2016*
		Tonnes	% of reserves**			Tonnes	% of reserves**
1	United States	8,133.5	75.3%	51	WAEMU3)	36.5	11.8%
2	Germany	3,381.0	69.0%	52	Malaysia	36.4	1.5%
3	IMF	2,814.0	1)	53	Peru	34.7	2.2%
4	Italy	2,451.8	68.3%	54	Slovakia	31.7	41.9%
5	France	2,435.6	63.2%	55	Azerbaijan	30.2	18.4%
6	China	1,788.4	2.2%	56	Ukraine	27.4	8.1%
7	Russia	1,447.0	15.1%	57	Syria	25.8	5.8%
8	Switzerland	1,040.0	6.8%	58	Sri Lanka	22.1	13.4%
9	Japan	765.2	2.4%	59	Morocco	22.0	3.7%
10	Netherlands	612.5	59.4%	60	Afghanistan	21.9	12.2%
11	India	557.7	6.2%	61	Nigeria	21.4	2.6%
12	ECB	504.8	26.6%	62	Serbia	18.1	6.5%
13	Turkey6)	479.4	16.9%	63	Cyprus	13.9	63.2%
14	Taiwan	422.7	3.8%	64	Bangladesh	13.8	1.9%
15	Portugal	382.5	72.1%	65	Tajikistan	12.6	88.6%
16	Venezuela	361.0	69.1%	66	Cambodia	12.4	6.5%
17	Saudi Arabia	322.9	2.1%	67	Qatar	12.4	1.3%
18	United Kingdom	310.3	9.3%	68	Ecuador	11.8	14.4%
19	Lebanon	286.8	22.7%	69	Mauritius	9.9	8.9%
20	Spain	281.6	19.9%	70	Czech Republic	9.9	0.6%
21	Austria	280.0	46.5%	71	Ghana	8.7	7.6%
22	Belgium	227.4	36.8%	72	Paraguay	8.2	5.4%
23	Kazakhstan	225.6	32.3%	73	United Arab Emirates	7.4	0.4%
24	Philippines	195.9	9.6%	74	Myanmar	7.3	3.9%
25	Algeria	173.6	4.5%	75	Guatemala	6.9	3.6%
26	Thailand	152.4	3.6%	76	Macedonia	6.8	10.9%
27	Singapore	127.4	2.0%	77	Tunisia	6.8	3.6%
28	Sweden	125.7	8.4%	78	Latvia	6.6	7.3%
29	South Africa	125.2	10.9%	79	Ireland	6.0	8.0%
30	Mexico	121.2	2.7%	80	Lithuania	5.8	18.2%
31	Libya	116.6	5.8%	81	Nepal	4.9	3.0%
32	Greece	112.7	63.5%	82	Bahrain	4.7	3.1%
33	BIS2)	108.0	1)	83	Brunei Darussalam	4.5	5.3%
34	Korea	104.4	1.1%	84	Kyrgyz Republic	4.3	9.5%
35	Romania	103.7	10.9%	85	Colombia	3.5	0.3%
36	Poland	102.9	4.3%	86	Mozambique	3.4	5.6%
37	Iraq	89.8	6.5%	87	Slovenia	3.2	13.5%
38	Australia	79.9	7.3%	88	Aruba	3.1	14.1%
39	Kuwait	79.0	9.5%	89	Hungary	3.1	0.4%
40	Indonesia	78.1	3.0%	90	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3.0	2.5%
41	Egypt	75.6	18.4%	91	Luxembourg	2.2	8.3%
42	Brazil	67.2	0.7%	92	Hong Kong	2.1	0.0%
43	Denmark	66.5	4.1%	93	Iceland	2.0	1.4%
44	Pakistan	64.5	13.0%	94	Papua New Guinea	2.0	4.4%
45	Argentina	61.7	8.6%	95	Trinidad and Tobago	1.9	0.7%
46	Finland	49.1	18.8%	96	Haiti	1.8	3.6%
47	Belarus4)	42.9	40.6%	97	Albania	1.6	2.0%
48	Bolivia	42.5	13.2%	98	Yemen	1.6	1.2%
49	Jordan	41.4	9.9%	99	Mongolia	1.6	5.1%
50	Bulgaria	40.2	7.4%	100	El Salvador	1.4	1.7%

Silver’s on Fire

Another interesting week, in that the price of silver separated from the price of gold. The former went no nowhere, while the latter gained over 4.5%.
We get the trading thesis, that if the precious metals are in a bull market, then silver should go up more than gold. Silver is the high-beta gold. It’s a smaller market, less liquid, and at the same time it’s the preferred vehicle for betting on a rising price.
We don’t quite get the thesis that gold is going nowhere or even down, and bet on silver which is going to $50. Yet that is now our market reality. Excited silver bulls have watched as pushed silver up from $14 in late January to $17. Meanwhile the price of gold went from $1,100 to $1,260 and then back down to $1,230. The gold silver ratio initially rose from 78.5 to over 83, and down so far to 72.7.
The growing consensus is bullish. As always, we’re more interested in the fundamentals than in opinions. Let’s look at the only true picture of supply and demand fundamentals. But first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.
The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio was down sharply again this week.
The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.
Here is the gold graph.
The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Look at that. Carrying gold for June delivery is now even more profitable, over 55 basis points. This is up from last week at 51bps. The increase tells us something. However much gold was carried last week, it became incrementally more attractive to carry this week.
A positive basis is a measure of abundance. This is because it tells us about the profitability of buying metal to warehouse in carry trades. If profitability is rising, then that means the marginal demand for metal is to put into the warehouse.
Not a bullish sign, with a flat to falling price. Indeed our fundamental price for gold is still sagging, down another six Federal Reserve Notes this week.
Now let’s turn to silver.
The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

How much higher can the price of silver go? One talk show host appealed to the “silver faithful” with a promise of a price to skyrocket to levels even they will find “stunning”.
Our response is to point to the basis (blue line). Note that we switched from May to July.
If gold is showing some signs of abundance, silver is practically lying about in the marketscape. To carry silver for July delivery yields an annualized profit of over 1.1%. The flow of metal into the carry trade must be a torrent. If anything occurs that will stun the silver faithful, it will be the epic drop in the silver price. This will be decried as a smashdown.
Our calculated fundamental price did rise a dime this week, but it’s more than two fiat units below the market price.
There are times when the basis analysis does not predict a price move. We certainly did not call for the price of silver to jump. It’s speculation, or “animal spirits” if you will. However, then the basis can predict the reversal of the speculative move.
To be conservative—though this risks missing a quick collapse—one should wait to see the momentum peter out. As we often say at times of bearishness, we NEVER RECOMMEND NAKED SHORTING a monetary metal. The way to play this move would be to go long gold and short silver. If the gold silver ratio is 70, short 70 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold you buy.
70 would be an attractive entry point (assuming momentum dies by then). If the ratio rises to 83, then you have a gain of over 18.5%. For example, if you buy 100oz gold and short 7,000 oz silver, you will pick up over 15.6 ounces of gold.
© 2016 Monetary Metals

Central Banks may soon start buying silver

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett

In case of emergency, central banks go back to what they know and to what works. Once silver was a monetary commodity for central banks, today only investors buy silver. Central banks have little to none silver, but things can change – fast. In case of emergency, silver can reclaim its monetary status.
Most investors will see you as a fool when you say central banks can start buying silver even when they aren’t interested in gold. But when you think a little further, it’s not a crazy idea after all. But first you must understand the meaning of money.
Money is …

• Divisible: should be divisible in smaller units
• Portable: able to carry it around
• Homogenous: one unit should be the same as any another unit
• Durable:  should not be able to be easily destroyed or eroded
• Valuable: should have intrinsic value

Centuries ago people chose gold as the best to be money. That’s why all over the world gold is considered money, in every county on earth gold is the same and it has intrinsic value. That’s also the reason central banks love gold (yes they do).

Investing in silver before central banks heat up the price

But silver is also divisible, portable, homogenous, durable and valuable. A long time ago central banks had silver in their vaults as a safe haven. But now silver is almost entirely demonetized.  Bretton Woods killed silver definitely when the world embraced gold and the US Dollar as true money.
While central banks were still holding gold as part of their reserves, silver was sold off. That’s why some see gold as money but silver only as a commodity.
Many would say that central banks hate gold, based on the majority of their actions over the last 100 years, at least. However, it is not that central banks hate gold per se, but they hate it when it is in their interest to do so, and they love it when they need it.
In the seventies central banks bought gold because there wasn’t much faith in fiat currency. Faith stabilized in the eighties so gold reserves stayed the same. From the nineties till the financial crisis fiat currency was king and gold a barbaric relic.
But things changed in 07/08. Central banks were net buyers for gold again, especially emerging countries. But in the future it may be more difficult to buy gold at a reasonable price as faith in fiat currencies fades away. So at some point, central banks can embrace silver again because silver has the same properties as gold.
The only reason they were not interested in silver is because it was in their interest to hate it. But for how long? After all, it is not like having silver is new thing for them.
Read our Guide to Gold for FREE
OR … 10 ten baggers for just ten dollars
We came up with ten stocks, which have the potential to become ‘ten baggers’. Stocks that can tenfold your returns, when this market really gets going. 
We combined these 10 ten baggers is a separate report, for the symbolic low price of $10. So, 10 ten baggers for ten dollars.

Stanley Druckenmiller – “The Greatest Moneymaking Machine In History”

Who is Stanley Druckenmiller?

Here is what hedge fund manager Scott Bessent says about Druckenmiller in the book “Inside the House of Money’

Stan may be the greatest moneymaking machine in history. He has Jim Roger’s analytical ability, George Soros’s trading ability, and the stomach of a riverboat gambler when it comes to placing his bets. His lack of volatility is unbelievable. I think he’s had something like five down quarters in 25 years and never a down year. The Quantum record from 1989 to 2000 is really his. The assets grew from $1 billion to $20 billion over that time and the performance never suffered. Soros’s record was made on a smaller amount of money at a time when there were fewer hedge funds to compete against.

Breaking the Bank of England was not a one-man job. Superlatives have gone entirely to Soros, but history has been unjust to the other genius behind the trade – Druckenmiller. Both, Soros and Druckenmiller played crucial roles and one could not have done it without the other. They were a dream-team of speculators.

Here’s is Scott Bessent again about the infamous Pound trade:

What is most interesting to me about the breaking of the pound was the combination of Stan Druckenmiller’s gamesmanship – Stan really understand risk and reward – and George’s ability to size trades. Make no mistake about it, shorting the pound was Stan Druckenmiller’s idea. Soros contribution was pushing him to take a gigantic position.

When people talk about the Breaking the Bank of England story, which netted a billion pounds to Soros, few remember the mention the risk parameters of the trade. His fund was up 12% for the year, when they decided to take the trade. Their pre-defined maximum risk was the entire year-to-date profit, but not more.   It takes huge balls of steel to make such a bet.

What is the philosophy behind Stanley Druckenmiller’s exceptional performance:

1. Flexibility

The Friday before the 1987 crash, Druckenmiller goes from net short to 130% long. Here is his conversation with Jack Schwager in The New Market Wizards’ book:

– You’ve repeatedly indicated that you give a great deal of weight to technical input. With the market in a virtual free-fall at the time, didn’t the technical perspective make you apprehensive about the trade?

– A number of technical indicators suggested that the market was oversold at that juncture. Moreover, I thought that the huge price base near the 2,200 level would provide extremely strong support— at least temporarily. I figured that even if I were dead wrong, the market would not go below the 2,200 level on Monday morning. My plan was to give the long position a half-hour on Monday morning and to get out if the market failed to bounce.

***

Another important lesson to be drawn from this interview is that if you make a mistake, respond immediately! Druckenmiller made the incredible error of shifting from short to 130 percent long on the very day before the massive October 19, 1987, stock crash, yet he finished the month with a net gain. How? When he realized he was dead wrong, he liquidated his entire long position during the first hour of trading on October 19 and actually went short. Had he been less open-minded, defending his original position when confronted with contrary evidence, or had he procrastinated to see if the market would recover, he would have suffered a tremendous loss. Instead, he actually made a small profit. The ability to accept unpleasant truths (i.e., market action or events counter to one’s position) and respond decisively and without hesitation is the mark of a great trader.

***

Druckenmiller flipped the portfolio from short to long, a reversal that saved Quantum in 1999, but then hurt it a few months later in 2000. Druckenmiller finished 2000 up for the year. He went from down 12% in March to up 15% for the year in his own portfolio. If you remember, the Nasdaq dumped in March 2000 but then it almost made a marginal new high in September at which point he changed his mind again, went from net long to net short, and caught the whole move down from September to December 2000.

Stan is better at changing his mind that anybody I’ve ever seen. Maybe he stayed with it a little too long, but one of the great things about Stan is that he can and does turn on a dime. To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, when the facts change, he changes his positions.

2. He understands and applies perfectly the concept of risk/reward and one of his main weapons is proper timing:

One of the things that I learned from Stan Druckenmiller is how to enter a trade. The great thing about Stan is that he can be wrong, but he rarely loses money because his entry point is so good.

3. The most important lessons from George Soros

I’ve learned many things from him, but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on a market and didn’t maximize the opportunity

Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage. As far as Soros is concerned, when you’re right on something, you can’t own enough.

***

It’s my philosophy, which has been reinforced by Mr. Soros, that when you earn the right to be aggressive, you should be aggressive. The years that you start off with a large gain are the times that you should go for it.

The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs. You can be far more aggressive when you’re making good profits. Many managers, once they’re up 30 or 40 percent, will book their year [i.e., trade very cautiously for the remainder of the year so as not to jeopardize the very good return that has already been realized]. The way to attain truly superior long-term returns is to grind it out until you’re up 30 or 40 percent, and then if you have the convictions, go for a 100 percent year. If you can put together a few near-100 percent years and avoid down years, then you can achieve really outstanding long-term returns.

***

Soros is also the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.

4. Great defense wins championships

Druckenmiller’s entire trading style runs counter to the orthodoxy of fund management. There is no logical reason why an investor (or fund manager) should be nearly fully invested in equities at all times. If an investor’s analysis points to the probability of an impending bear market, he or she should move entirely to cash and possibly even a net short position.

5. About valuation and timing the market

I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction.

The catalyst is liquidity, and hopefully my technical analysis will pick it up.

6. About leverage:

You could be right on a market and still end up losing if you use excessive leverage.

One basic market truth (or, perhaps more accurately, one basic truth about human nature) is that you can’t win if you have to win. Druckenmiller’s plunge into T-bill futures in a desperate attempt to save his firm from financial ruin provides a classic example. Even though he bought T-bill futures within one week of their all-time low (you can’t pick a trade much better than that), he lost all his money. The very need to win poisoned the trade— in this instance, through grossly excessive leverage and a lack of planning. The market is a stern master that seldom tolerates the carelessness associated with trades born of desperation.

 

And a more recent quote from Druckenmiller, related to Soros’s advice “don’t try to play the game better, pay attention to when the game has changed”:

I really don’t care whether we go to $70 billion or $65 billion in September, … But if you tell me quantitative easing is going to be removed over 9 or 12 months, that is a big deal

 

SOURCES:

INSIDE THE HOUSE OF MONEY, STEVEN DROBNEY, WILEY, 2008
Schwager, Jack D. (2009-10-13). The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders. HarperBusiness. Kindle Edition.

[转贴] 【现金流公司 2】- 10家【手持现金 = Cash】> 【借贷 = Borrowing】的优质股，平均Dividend yiled = 4.28%. - Harryt30

Friday, April 22, 2016

 

昨天跟大家分享了10家【0借贷】的公司得到不错的回响。看来在动荡不安的股市里，还是有不少人喜欢Cash Is King的高股息公司，因为可以获得稳定的被动收入。而今天笔者要跟大家分享的是10家有【手持现金 = Cash】> 【借贷 = Borrowing】的优质公司。

例子：
A公司有10亿现金，5亿债务，
所以净现金, Net Cash = 10亿 - 5亿 = 5亿

为什么有些公司在有能力清还借贷的情况下还是会跟银行借钱呢？？因为天有不测之风云，如果公司突然急需要用大笔钱，跟银行借贷可能需要一些时间。所以有些公司宁愿每年还一些借贷的利息，也要手握多点现金。

 

举个例子,TOP GLOV现在手握的Investment securities & cash相等于8.09亿，手上握有3.374亿净现金。但是它们同时拥有4.72亿的借贷，为什么拥有清还能力的TOPGLOV不还清债务呢？原因是它们今年的目标是收购1 -2 家公司来扩张规模，因此手上需要握有大笔的现金做准备。聪明又有钱生意人会跟银行借钱做生意，而打工一族会把钱放在银行借给有钱人做生意。
 

 

回到正题，大家一起看看10家【手持现金 = Cash】> 【借贷 = Borrowing】的公司。

 

 

股价为2016 April 21

• 上图10家公司除了FAVCO以及PERSTIM两家是小型股之外，其他8家都是市值超过10亿的公司。
• 而这10家公司手持的现金介于1.02 - 4.28亿之间，非常难得的是UOADEV这家产业股有高达4亿多的现金。
• 此外，这10家公司中只有INARI, FAVCO以及KAREX的股价是下跌的，其他7家都活得不错的表现。
• PE10以下的就有FAVCO以及UOADEV, 周息率都在5.5%以上。FAVCO以及UOADEV在2015年的盈利分别进步6.98%和23.49%，而UOADEV在产业放缓的情况下还可以继续进步，这是非常难能可贵的。
• PERSTIM的周息率高达6.3%，今年股价也突破了新高，手持净1.02亿的现金。不过缺点是成交量非常低。
• HLIND的业绩前天才出炉，公司派发股息，全年派发42仙的股息。所以股价5天内从6.80上涨到7.48，5天上涨了10%。
• BJAUTO拥有3亿以上的现金，所以每年派发股息从不手软。
• PADINI在这一年内表现回用，业绩盈利连续进步两个季度。而且股息也保持在10仙的水平，只要股价在RM2或以下买进，1年就可以获得5%的股息。此外，这家消费股握有1.77亿的现金，想要扩张其实不愁没钱。
• MUHIBAH以及SUNCON是难得的几家Net Cash Company，Econbhd以及PTARAS也是净现金，今年建筑股的表现都非常出色。
• INARI这家公司在上市至今完成了股价超过1000%涨幅的奇迹，业绩盈利机会每年都在进步着。所以它们才可以立下40%的派息政策，现在手上握有2.59亿左右的Net Cash。
• 最后是上市3年的KAREX,盈利每个季度都在进步着。手握1.57亿左右的现金，今年分红股后股价小小跌了一些。不过这家公司是可以逢低买进的，10年后或许就是下一家TOPGLOV了。

以上纯属分享，买卖自负。

4 top investors are betting big on gold

The price of gold is down 40% from all-time highs in 2011, but big hedge fund names are betting the worst is over.
Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne fund was the latest one to dive in, investing close to 25% of its U.S. equity portfolio in gold-related stocks as of August 14, 2015. See the gold holdings of other top managers: