Silver Assets Climb to Record as ‘Forgotten’ Metal Soars

Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by silver swelled to a record as investors sought a haven from global economic and political risk.
Assets expanded 72.6 metric tons to 20,227.2 tons as of Wednesday and have risen 7.3 percent this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices have advanced 28 percent in 2016, outperforming gold, as investors scale back expectations for increases in U.S. interest rates, benefiting precious metals because they don’t offer yields or dividends.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled Wednesday that secular forces may keep borrowing costs lower for longer, which helped push gold to the highest level since 2014. Silver joined the rally, adding 2 percent. Investor anxiety over a British vote June 23 on whether to leave the European Union is also bolstering prices.

“When there is big buying in precious metals, silver sometimes leads the way up,” Bob Takai, chief executive officer and president of Sumitomo Corp. Global Research Co., said by phone from Tokyo. “It’s very natural for investors to run for the safe haven which is gold and silver.”
Investors have added 421.6 tons of gold to exchange-traded funds in 2016, the most for any year since 2009, after reducing holdings for three straight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silver assets have risen 1,370 tons this year, the most since 2012.

‘Value Opportunity’

“The case for silver will just get stronger and stronger because silver was essentially forgotten by much of the investment community for a long time, thereby creating a great value opportunity both in absolute terms and relative to gold,” Gregor Gregersen, chief executive officer and founder of Singapore-based Silver Bullion Pte., said in an e-mail before the data were released.
An ounce of gold bought 73.7 ounces of silver on Thursday from a high of 83.8 ounces at the end of February, which was a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Silver looks ready to outperform gold now with the ratio moving lower in a consistent fashion, signaling a genuine bull market condition for both metals, according to Ned Naylor-Leyland, manager of Old Mutual’s Gold and Silver Fund in London.

Investors eye bumper dividend as AirAsia plans to sell aircraft leasing business

PETALING JAYA: Shares in AirAsia Bhd climbed to its highest level in more than a year on hopes the low cost airline will pay out a bumper dividend from the impending sale of its aircraft leasing business.

CIMB Research expects 96 sen a share payout assuming the deal goes through.

“Post-sale, gearing levels would fall, and the risks arising from the associate airlines would be shared with the new majority owner of AAC,” it said in a note yesterday.

“We expect 96 sen per share in special dividends to be declared post-Asia Aviation Capital’s (AAC) disposal,” it said.

Shares in AirAsia rose two sen yesterday to close at RM2.67. CIMB Research yesterday raised its target price for the stock to RM4.15.

This values the airline at nine times its projected earnings in 2017 and adding in the expected special dividend.

It has been reported that the low cost carrier was in the process of evaluating the proposed sale of AAC.

Group chief executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes said AirAsia had appointed three banks to conduct the sale and there had been significant interest in AAC with a ready offer in hand valued at about US$1bil.

AAC is AirAsia’s wholly-owned leasing arm that leases aircraft to associate airlines in Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, India and Japan.

At the point of sale, AAC will have a portfolio of about 70 A320 planes, with aircraft and their associated debt novated from Airasia.

CIMB Research said the best offer on the table so far values AAC’s equity at US$1bil, although it believed that AirAsia was attempting to push the valuation even higher.

“The latter was calculated based on the market value of AAC’s expected portfolio of 70 aircraft, with the valuation boosted, in our view, by AirAsia’s large and attractively-priced order book with Airbus, which AirAsia has promised to share with the future AAC owner,” it added.

The exact proportion of AAC to be sold has yet to be decided by AirAsia, but a buyer has offered to purchase an 80% stake for US$800mil.

CIMB Research said Airasia might sell a smaller stake if it could get a higher valuation. “We suspect that the key criteria is the amount the two founders need to receive in special dividends to settle the RM1bil they would borrow to pay for the upcoming placement of 559 million new shares at RM1.80 each,” it said.

The research house said after the placement, the two founders would have a combined 32.4% stake in AirAsia.

“This means they will need AirAsia to pay at least RM3.1bil in special dividends (RM1bil/32.4%) to settle their loan. The US$800mil proceeds from potential sale of 80% stake in AAC (or RM3.2bil at RM4 to US$1) neatly matches the amount the founders need.

“This is the reason we think the entire proceeds will be paid as special dividends, representing 96 sen per share on enlarged post-placement base of 3,342 million shares,” CIMB Research said.

The research house estimated that RM1.5bil-RM1.7bil in debts associated with the leasing business would be deconsolidated, reducing net gearing to below one time.

Also, the future funding of loss-making associates would be shared with the new AAC owner, since the associates will pay aircraft rents directly to AAC.

AirAsia eyes bigger growth in China

KUALA LUMPUR - AirAsia eyes increasing its footprint in China, which remains an important market for Southeast Asia's leading budget airlines, media reported.
Its chief executive officer Aireen Omar said AirAsia is the biggest international airline in China, operating 45 routes to 18 destinations.
The airlines operates hubs that connect into various destinations in China, like it fly from Guangzhou not only to the Malaysia's capital city of Kuala Lumpur, but also to the southern state of Johor.
She told reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) on ASEAN that AirAsia is weighing on more routes to China.
"There are a lot of things that are being planned at least for the next five years on how we are going to grow into China from the ASEAN base," she was quoted as saying by Bernama, state news agency of Malaysia.
Meanwhile, Air Asia group chief executive officer Tony Fernandes said Chinese regulators understood the aviation business and were very proactive.
"It has been great working with them. Wuhan airport authorities have seen us last week and wanted to know how to be a low-cost (carrier) and how to build a low-cost terminal," he told reporters.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2016-06/02/content_25590773.htm

The Shocking Reason Why China Will Send The Price Of Silver Skyrocketing Over $100!

With so much focus on the West’s massive money printing schemes, here is the shocking reason why China will send the price of silver skyrocketing over $100.
Stephen Leeb:  “Whatever your views about climate change, the reality is that the world as a whole is rushing to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies (along with nuclear, which is so plentiful that for all intents and purposes it can count as renewable). And while in recent articles we’ve focused on the forthcoming massive bull market ahead in gold, the transition to renewables will mean at least comparable opportunities for investors in another metal: silver, which is destined to soar into triple-digit territory…

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Stephen Leeb continues:  “While gold’s rise will mainly reflect its role as a currency as commodity shortages emerge, silver – which also has a history over the millennia as a precious metal – possesses special qualities as an industrial metal that will give it an added kick. For instance, it’s one of the best conductors of both electricity and heat, giving silver a critical role in industrial applications ranging from automobiles to computers and mobile phones (and virtually all modern electronic devices).

Silver Playing A Massive Role In Renewable Enegery
And of rising importance as the world seeks to move away from fossil fuels, silver is also a critical component in photovoltaics, a renewable energy whose growth over the past decade has been spectacular at nearly 100-fold. In 2006 photovoltaics was just a twinkle in European and Middle Eastern eyes. Recently China has been leading its growth: in the past five years, China has counted for around 50 percent of solar’s gains.
Shocking Chinese Demand To Send Silver Prices Skyrocketing
Looking ahead, estimates of growth in photovoltaics between 2015 and 2020 range from about 250 gigawatts (the IEA) to well over 400 gigawatts (Bloomberg New Energy). Moreover, virtually all reputable researchers expect accelerating growth through at least the next decade. China had installed about 45 gigawatts of photovoltaics by 2015. It aims for 1000 gigawatts  by 2030, nearly five times what the entire world has installed today.
Basic math shows what this means for silver consumption. Today it takes about 2.8 million ounces of silver to produce one gigawatt of solar power. If we assume that about 650 gigs will be installed worldwide by 2020, simple multiplication and division tell us that about 35,000 tons of silver, or 1 billion ounces, will be needed by 2020.
And photovoltaics constitutes just one part of the demand side for silver. Demand for silver for computers, the internet of things, and, indeed anything electronic – and for coins and jewelry, especially in the East – will also continue to grow. But solar energy will be responsible for the greatest growth in demand.
World To Face Massive Silver Shortages
So where will all this extra silver come from? According GFMS, a division of Thompson and Reuters, silver supplies have peaked. In its most recent analysis it sums up the supply situation as follows: “Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits in the silver market going forward.” In other words, when you combine the basic demand math along with supply assumptions, the world is facing a five-year supply shortage that amounts to more than one year of production, or enough to draw down to nearly zero all the aboveground silver inventories that might be used to fill the gap.
After 2020, increasing silver demand will mean increasing rationing of the metal, which can only be done by via extraordinarily high prices. Of the world’s major countries, only China seems to get the message and to be preparing for this eventuality, with China’s recent silver imports soaring to five-year highs. Meanwhile, U.S. imports have stagnated.
Barring a miracle, silver prices are going to the moon, leaving the U.S. in a very difficult position. It would not surprise us one bit if silver is confiscated much like gold was during the Depression. This means, as was the case with gold, the best investments are likely to be silver producers. Over the next decade almost all credible silver producers could see their prices multiply by anywhere from 10- to 100-fold.” ***KWN has now released Pierre Lassonde’s remarkable audio interview, where he discusses his $10,000+ gold price prediction and much more CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW.

Finding the real numbers in timber & furniture stocks and some key observations

Follow up on my last post discussing timber & furniture stocks and after the release of the recent quarter results, I am curious to find out how would the margin, turnover and ROIC of these stocks look like after stripping away all the nonoperating gain & losses. Are they still going to look similar or very different? and .
Before jumping in, it is important for you to know the adjustments I've made before you interpret the figures. All the adjustments are made in order to find 2 things -

1. Invested capital (IC)
2. Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT)

Invested capital looks at how much money is put into the business. NOPAT looks at how much the business earns without all the extraordinary things. When you have these 2 things, you can find out NOPAT margin & turnover, both will lead you to Return on invested capital (ROIC).
IC = Operating fixed assets + operating current assets - operating current liabilities
Most common things in IC will be property plants equipments, accounts receivable, inventories, accounts payable etc. Excess cash is excluded.
NOPAT = Operating income x (1 - Tax rate)
For NOPAT it is a bit tricky. I can't remember everything on top of my head but I have either taken out or added back everything not related to how the core operation makes money. Things like interest income/expenses, foreign currency gain/loss, insurance compensation, assets disposal gain/loss. rental income/loss, inventory loss to fire and so on. Most of them are small amount, but interest income/expenses & forex gain/loss are major ones, especially as of late.
Tax rate is the most controversial. None of these stocks pay a full tax rate of 25%. You have FLBHD with tax deduction benefits (now no more), Hevea reversal of deferred tax assets, Latitude paying different tax rate because they have operations in other countries, same for Poh Huat. Because my goal is to look at the economic side of the business without letting tax rate distorting profits, I've decided to apply full tax rate on all of them by assuming level playing field. And reality is not level.
With all these in mind let's look at their figures.



With all the numbers on our hands, I plotted them on a chart for easier understanding and interpretation. Again as mentioned in last post, be careful when you tried to compare these companies. Although they all falls under the same industry and their businesses tend to overlap in some areas but some can be distinctively different.  



The X or horizontal axis depict NOPAT margin (NOPAT/Revenue), Y or vertical axis depict turnover (Revenue/IC). X*Y gives you ROIC. There's are few ways to interpret both margin and turnover. Turnover has more to do with operational efficiency while margin can either be business has lower cost or higher selling price or mix of both.
The only way for these companies can generate more value is to move as far top right as possible, that means expansion of both margin and turnover, or in most of the cases here, higher turnover can offset a lower profit margin.

Key observation
1. Looking at X-axis, over the 5 years from 2010-2014 you can see margin earned by these companies mostly falls in between 4% to 8% band, with 5-7% being average.
2. At Y-axis, turnover ratio is more dispersed. With concentration around 1.5-2.5 band.
3. If you take these 2 averages (Average can be meaningless), average margin of 6% and turnover of 2x, you get ROIC of 12%, which is decent for the industry as a whole. Earning above cost of capital of 10%.
4. All these stocks experienced strong margin and turnover expansion in 2015. Hevea's margin swings passed 12% while turnover breached 1.5x for the first time. Liihen turnover hitting record 3.5x and register a 10% margin, propelling ROIC to 34.4% (3.5*10).
5. Hevea's low turnover compare to others is mainly because of equipments & machinery needs to produce their products (particleboard). Mieco which trade particleboard too but not mentioned in here has a lower turnover of below 1x. Another interesting thing about Hevea is that it is the only stock with IC falling since 2010, pushing up turnover gradually.
6. Bear in mind although these numbers have been 'cleaned' to remove any distortion, the currency distortion on revenue is real and alive and that's something that cannot be 'cleaned'. So beware of things reversing. You need to be able to explain facts that margin & turnover expansion is due to business doing this and that rather than take it at face value.
7. Homeritz has always been an outlier in terms of margin, partly has to do with their focus on niche high end luxury market. Whether the margin can be maintained remains to be seen. It seems the market is giving it a high valuation because of consistency in high ROIC.
8. Poh Huat's turnover have been relatively consistent and with margin growing over the past 2 years, it remains interesting to see how their plan to move into high end furniture turns out in the future.

Another key takeaway is when it comes to predicting growth, unless the company had a record to prove that it is an outlier, such as the case of Homeritz, it is always better to use the industry rate (outside view) as the starting point before focus on the stocks previous metrics (inside view).
Let's say you are interested in Focus Lumber, you want to forecast FLBHD's revenue growth rate.
1. You noticed industry average ROIC is sitting around 12% (6% margin x 2x turnover). That is a good starting point.
2. FLBHD past 6 years ROIC is 15.6%, take out 2015 figure ROIC is 12.8%. You noticed FLBHD have been able to earn a margin above 6% and turnover above 2x consistently, so you decide to adjust FLBHD's future ROIC upward slightly to 12.5% or 13%.
3. A quick check at FLBHD previous payout ratio, you found out that they pay on average 40-50% of their EPS as dividend. With that in mind, you know the revenue growth rate will be around 6.2-7.8% a year. Growth = ROIC * (1- Payout ratio).
4. If you want to estimate margin then profit from here, it's the same thing. Look at industry NOPAT margin, look at company specific and adjust from there, not other way round.
5. This way you will avoid using a too high growth forecast, say using 10% because 10% seems alright and a nice rounding figure.

AirAsia receives US$1 billion takeover offer for leasing unit

SINGAPORE: Asia's largest budget airline AirAsia Bhd has received a $1 billion offer for its aircraft leasing unit, Bloomberg News quoted Chief Executive Tony Fernandes as saying.
AirAsia intends to divest the business, Asia Aviation Capital Ltd, at some point, Fernandes told Bloomberg on Monday but added that the offer needs to be discussed further with the board.
He was quoted as saying that the business was a "powerful cash generator."
Reuters reported in October that AirAsia has been in talks with lessors, including cash-rich Chinese companies, to sell a stake in its leasing subsidiary.
Chinese companies are seeking to grow aggressively in the leasing industry that provides about 40 percent of the planes used by airlines globally.
Following the Reuters report, AirAsia said late last year that it had received approaches from investors to co-invest in the leasing unit. --Reuters

解構神秘的橋水對沖基金(二)

http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/05/blog-post_25.html

橋水基金進軍中國意欲何為？這家神秘的對沖基金又如何保持金身不敗？靠的主要投資理念有以下三種：Alpha和Beta的分離投資、系統風險高度分散化以及D-Process。

什麼是Alpha和Beta，簡單來說，Alpha是主動投資取得的超額收益，可以簡單理解為股票型基金。Beta是與市場整體保持一致的投資組合，可以理解成指數基金。在Bridgewater基金有三個不同的策略，一種完全是Alpha，一種完全是Beta，第三種就是Alpha和Beta結合。這是橋水的創意。

橋水做的是，多資產配置，有流動性的地方都配置。所謂不把雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡，橋水基金的投資理念是，資產配置越分散越好，越沒有相關性越好。

如果能找到10個到15個相關性在10%~20%的產品，那麼組合就非常完美，極大降低風險。

在橋水基金，有一個投資理念，就是所有事物的基本面都可以拆分。

當年麥當勞找到橋水基金，因為不滿雞塊供應商要求簽訂長期訂單，希望尋求解決之道。橋水基金在拆分了雞塊構成後發現，原來幼雞的價格佔比非常低，雞塊的成本主要是飼料價格，包括玉米和豆粕。只要把兩個商品做成期貨，就能實現對沖實物風險。為了此事，我特意請教了嘉美雞強哥，強哥的故事可見於此。「強哥，可有此事？」

Alpha和Beta分離的投資策略最開始是Dalio在1990年引進的，然後在2000年初逐漸被各大基金經理認可。Bridgewater公司是第一個運用Alpha和Beta分離的投資策略的對沖基金，並且為這兩個投資模式各自設立了相應的投資基金：Pure Alpha 對沖基金和All Weather對沖基金。

Beta投資的收益和風險幾乎完全與市場的整體表現一致，並且投資產品的成本小、流動性高。這類投資主要集中在被動型的收益產品，如指數基金、固定收益產品等。通過Beta投資，投資者可以以高流動性以及高透明度獲得市場收益率，同時只需要承擔比較小的風險和費用。

Alpha投資是一種主動型的投資方式，目的是形成與市場相關性低的超額收益回報。Alpha指標刻畫了主動投資所帶來的超額收益的大小，高的Alpha值反映了該資產（或組合）與市場相比有較高的超額收益，同時表示一個積極的基金經理有較好的投資管理能力。這類投資主要集中在包括私募股權基金、商品基金、期貨基金等。通過Alpha投資，可以尋求一些難以發現的、對投資技巧要求很高的超額收益專案。

Bridgewater公司認為傳統投資組合中，股票的風險過大，組合收益對股票市場的表現過於敏感。它通過各種金融衍生品，如期貨、期權和互換等，把Beta和Alpha的收益分離開，同時通過大範圍的分散投資，大大縮小投資的風險。在這個投資理念下，Bridgewater公司設計了一個叫Alpha Overlay的策略。

D-Process

Ray認為，任何經濟體都會經歷這樣一個週期：大眾借錢融資，債務相對於收入快速上升，意味著債務清償相對於收入也在快速上升。在頂峰時期，大家都是以足夠高的價格借錢購買資產，收入和現金流開始無法滿足償債的需求。於是人們開始進行減少債務等一些反向操作。Dalio稱這個債務增加和減少的過程叫D-Process。

他認真研究了美國大蕭條等一些極端經濟現象，他發現極端超額借債的結果都會是一次劇烈的影響範圍極廣的市場調整，直到經濟環境回到常態。因此，正是深刻認識到D-Process的普遍性，Bridgewater公司經常能夠通過準確預測市場的走勢，賺取驚人的收益。

以下就是Keynotes：

1.對沖基金是希望能夠掙到高於市場的回報。

2.大部分對沖基金賺的錢都是Beta，大部分人很難賺到Alpha。

3.我們賺的錢是零值博弈，也就是人家虧的錢。

4.風險調整之後的回報是最重要的。

5.能掙到α的人非常少，索羅斯是一個，因為你區別不了一個人是行運，還是有眼光的。

6.做金融投資中，一些創新的東西，可能使你立於不敗之地。

7.我們非常注重剖析事物之間的因果關係，無限分解基本面，並且看各類資產之間在市場中的相互作用。

8.第一，基金經理的過往紀錄是最值錢的，第二其在危機中的表現非常重要，我們並不是每個危機都賺錢。

9.如果你能夠把各類資產按照風險來平衡分配，你的投資回報會非常穩定。

10.市場明天發生什麼永遠無法預測，但有些事情是能預知的，就是市場的回報，長期來看會打敗現金。

11.一旦市場開始下跌，幅度和長度比預期要長的多。

12.資產相關性低，會大大降低風險。如果能找到10個到15個相關性在10%~20%的產品，那麼組合就非常完美，極大降低風險。

13.各類資產有一個特性，按照風險調准到一個水準，風險之後的回報就會差不多。

14.價格是由意外決定的，就是事件實際發生的情況，和市場預期的差異決定了投資回報。

15.市場規模足夠大，就會出現非常傑出的人。很多人眼光並不比馬雲差，差就差在市場規模。

Bridgewater三個首席CIO, Greg, Eileen, David至今為止沒有換過，統領300個研究員，100個交易員。如今加上Jon，更加天下無敵。

那麼，如何能夠加入橋水基金？讓我告訴你……..(未完)

解構神秘的橋水對沖基金

FROM: http://oldjimpacific.blogspot.my/2016/05/blog-post_23.html
 全球最大對沖基金橋水已在上海註冊，Bridgewater目前是iShares MSCI新興市場ETF最大的機構投資者。截止2015年底，橋水基金成為超越索羅斯、成為規模及盈利最多的基金。

Ray Dalio不像一般的對沖基金公司，Bridgewater不為富人管理資產，它的服務主要是機構投資者，包括養老基金、捐贈基金、國外的政府以及中央銀行等。現在，它有超過270家機構客戶，一半在美國，一半在海外。Bridgewater是多種創新投資策略的先鋒者，如貨幣管理外包、分離Alpha和Beta策略、絕對收益產品以及風險平價等。

2000-2005年期間，Bridgewater己經成為了資產增長速度最快的基金管理公司。在2005年，由於資產規模的限制，Dalio決定停一停，冥想一下，暫停接收新的投資者。過去的10年裡，公司的管理資產以每年25%的速率增長，公司員工數量也足足比2000年增長了11倍，點管？大家都知道複息的威力。

現在，Bridgewater管理著大約1200億美元的資產以及擁有1200名員工。他的Daily Observation已經成為全世界各大央行高管以及養老基金經理的必讀內容。

我成日都想問問佢，Bridgewater這個名稱是不是來自Simon and Garfunkel的驚世名作”Bridge Over Troubled Water” 。

Bridgewater對沖基金的投資歷史主要分為兩大階段。

Milestone 1（1975-1990）是以投資顧問的身份開展諮詢業務；

Milestone 2（1991至今）是開發各種投資策略與投資工具在世界範圍內進行投資。

  

Milestone 1（1975-1990）：諮詢與資金管理

1975年Ray Dalio成立Bridgewater時，公司只從事兩種業務，一種是為機構投資者提供諮詢服務，另一種是國內外貨幣和利率風險的管理業務。之後，公司改變了其戰略，開始向政府以及像麥當勞這種大型企業銷售經濟諮詢報告。

在20世紀80年代初期，公司開始發行付費的調查報告Daily Observation。這份報告得到了很多大型公司以及銀行的青睞。業務重心放在了機構投資者的債券和貨幣管理。1990年，開始正式為其客戶提供貨幣管理外包產品。1987年，公司獲得了第一筆投資基金——世銀50億美元的固定收益投資。

Milestone 2（1991至今）：創新投資策略

在20世紀90年代，Bridgewater公司開發了多種創新投資工具，如通貨膨脹聯動債券、貨幣管理外包、新興市場債務、全球債券以及超長期債券。

在1991年，Bridgewater公司建立了自己的旗艦基金Pure Alpha，這個基金在2000-2003年的市場低迷期表現十分出色。1992年公司引進了環球債券風險投資專案。

1995年，公司發行了All Weather對沖基金，並且於1996年開創性地運用風險平價技術去管理投資組合。

2006年，公司的旗艦基金Pure Alpha為了保持其投資策略以及增強容量限制，它開始返還部分資金給其投資者。同時，Bridgewater開始讓其投資者可以自由選擇不同的投資策略（如絕對Pure Alpha基金和All Weather基金），改變了其傳統的投資組合模式。僅僅在過去的5年時間裡，Bridgewater就已經獲得了多達22項的行業榮譽，被公認為業界領先的資產管理公司以及行業先鋒。在2010和2011年，Bridgewater 已經連續兩年成為了世界上規模最大和業績最好的的對沖基金公司。

公司員工

Bridgewater公司的員工數量從2003年的100人增長到2011年的1200人。公司願意雇用應屆畢業生作為它的分析員，這在對沖行業裡面是不多見的。Yale, Harvard, Princeton等美國常青藤學校源源不斷地為Bridgewater公司提供優秀的貨源。Scrum就是每年大家都要參予的公司活動。類似野外求生的濕身食蟲真人Show。

Ray在2011年的7月份辭去了CEO的職位，在公司擔任導師的職責。公司有3位CEO：Greg Jensen、Eileen Murray和David McCormick，以及3位投資總監：Dalio、Bob Prince 和Jensen。今年三月，Ray Dalio親自邀請了Apple老將Jon Rubinstein加盟，成為聯席CEO，魯賓斯坦花了近16年和Steve Jobs工作，先在NeXT，然後在蘋果。他是iPod的Senior VP。接著，他帶領公司智能手機的Palm，這是由惠普公司收購。他在五月將加入Bridgewater，將會主宰今後5-10年的發展，發展什麼？唔洗我畫公仔畫出腸嘛。

Bridgewater的投資策略和投資理念

公司運用的投資策略主要是全球宏觀策略。全球宏觀策略是根據全球經濟指標的變動對股票、貨幣、利率以及商品市場的價格波動的影響進行杠杆落注，來嘗試獲得盡可能高的正投資收益。基金經理運用各種投資技術，包括人為決策和系統決策，結合從上往下和從下往上宗旨，數理或者基本面分析，長短持有期結合。

主要投資理念主要有以下三種：Alpha和Beta的分離投資、系統風險高度分散化以及D-Process………(未完)

琅琊榜首天下第一高手Ray Dalio(二)

最新消息：Bridgewater本週已經在上海自貿區成立公司，FDT位於香港海港城的財富管理中心亦即將開幕，一年一度的MSCI評估馬上開始，全球最大的對冲基金入華，恰巧又是預期A股納入MSCI，咁多件事放在一起，係咪好多聯想呢？

您們應該知道這些千絲萬縷的關係。

價值觀念 ---- 自然無為

Ray Dalio是自然主義者，他的自然主義觀念起始於1968年。當時，Beatles去印度修習冥想，被媒體廣泛報導，這也引發了他一生對超驗冥想的興趣。他說：「創造力來自開明之心與專注之念——即能以一種非情緒的狀態去觀看事物。」

事實上，冥想開啟了他內省審思，不斷求索智慧之道。他相信宇宙間存在冥冥法則，人類所取得的成就是因為與這些法則和諧統一。無論科學、經濟、政治，只有順應自然之道，才能進步，逆「道」則招致災禍。

這種對自然之道的敬畏，奠定了他獨特的價值觀和工作處世準則。

企業文化

提到Bridgewater的企業文化，不得不提到最為世人瞭解的《Principle》一書，基於Ray本人的思想《行為準則》是橋水獨特企業化的根基。

準則主要內容：

第一步：選定目標；

第二步：識別難題；

第三步：診斷難題；

第四步：勾勒計畫；

第五步：實踐工作；

然而就像Steve Jobs一樣，一個以自己思想為本的企業文化，總會帶著詭異的宗教崇拜色彩。

關於橋水詭異的文化，坊間各種傳說，不少人批判它邪教化的管理風格，但同時又豔羨它出色的投資戰績。橋水最獨特的文化在其宣揚的「極端透明性」，所有員工都可以當面指責對方，無論級別高低、年齡長幼，只要致力於探究真相、解決問題；在背後說人壞話被嚴格禁止，因為這種行為沒有任何價值，只會破壞員工凝聚力；公司內部的會議和通話都被錄音，室內甚至還裝有錄影機，用以記錄和調查；各種商業決策，都要對員工開誠佈公，以保證所有人都瞭解真實情況，從而做出準確判斷。

公司電腦系統裝有「問題日誌」，任何人都可以在上面記錄大大小小的問題，有些問題聽起來完全無關緊要，比如公司餐廳的早餐太難吃，洗手間水龍頭壞了，但對Ray Dalio來說，沒有問題是小問題，每個問題都值得員工去徹底解決。

在橋水，員工當眾互相批評是家常便飯，臉皮薄的人在這樣的文化下難以生存，他想致力改變的就是人以自我中心。他認為，個人發展中最大的障礙就是脆弱的自尊心，人若想獲得真相、完善自身，就必須克服面子。所以，他鼓勵員工之間不斷相互批評，直到他們能冷靜客觀、不帶情緒地反思這些指責。

當然，並非所有人都能忍受這種文化，新員工在入職前兩年的流動率高達30%，不少人因為受不了這樣的文化很快就辭職，而另一部分也因性格不合而被公司解雇。

Ray表示，決定留下來的人有一些共同特質。他們知道並認可，最好的學習方式是從錯誤中學習——犯錯 →得到回饋 →改善錯誤。這需要他品性非常謙遜，並且思想開明。他們必須意識到，他們的所知比起未知是滄海一粟。真正能對其造成傷害的是未知（而不是有人指出他們的錯誤）。

選人之道

與其他對沖基金不同，橋水很喜歡招應屆畢業生，因為剛出校的學生可塑性與適應性更強。

一般的金融公司喜歡以數學概率題或腦筋急轉彎來檢測應聘人聰明與否。然而，橋水並不看重這種解題能力，因為大部分人都能通過面試題庫短時間提高解題能力。

橋水除了看重學校出身與背景簡歷，更在意一個人的性格與思辨力。比如橋水招人的時候都要進行MBTI職業性格測試。

面試者會被問到對墮胎或宗教之類議題的看法，在回答過程中，會不斷受到來自面試官的質疑和挑戰，從而測出人的抗壓能力、自尊心強弱、思辨能力等等。Ray Dalio本人是ENTP個性者，此性格被認為是天生的企業家，外向、直覺、思考、感知，有創造力，有遠見。而另一方面，此性格的人也往往容易過於自信，缺乏條理和耐性。

人生領悟 ---- 慘痛的失敗深刻的教訓

1981-82年，Ray確信美國經濟即將陷入衰退。以至於在他的專欄、電視臺甚至國會證詞中宣佈它會到來。1982月8月，墨西哥的違約更令他自己的正確。

然而，他錯了。他認為不可能發生的事情發生了：時任美聯儲主席Paul Volcker採取了減息、印鈔和創造信貸的行動，幫助美股啟動了一輪大牛市，美國經濟也迎來了一段低通脹和高增長並存的黃金時期。這段插曲讓他永遠對犯錯心存忌憚，無論有多麼確信自己是對的。從此，只有在瞭解別人的全部觀點後，才會決定該接受還是拒絕這些觀點。日復一日，年復一年，這麼做增加了Ray Dalio成功的機會。

人生的歷練則令他相信宇宙間由無限量的自然法則主宰，他認為，人類只不過是宇宙萬物當中微不足道的一分子，假若人類滅絕，宇宙也不損分毫。他反復強調，世間萬物只能依附于自然法則進化，即使自命萬物之靈的人類也沒有足夠智慧透徹瞭解，更不要說質疑自然法則的真諦。

投資理念

Uncle Ray是個喜歡野外活動的人：在加拿大釣魚、在蘇格蘭打野雞、用弓箭在非洲狩獵大型動物，比如南非黑色大水牛，這些動物以脾氣暴躁著稱，有時會用巨大的角去頂狩獵者。

他把狩獵看成他投資方式的一種隱喻。這就是一種控制風險的事情，如果你瞭解並控制住它們，也就不存在什麼風險了。如果你不加思考地去做，草草了事，那就會非常危險。他說，成功的關鍵就是弄明白「哪裡是刀刃，我如何與刀刃保持恰當的距離」。

無論如何，橋水從當年Uncle Ray個人的家庭作坊，發展成今天全世界最大的對沖基金，他對人性的洞察、對經濟機器的分析，他一手種植起來的人性實驗室一般的公司文化根基，和他素若僧侶、極簡主義的生活方式，都堪稱對沖基金業內的奇葩。 

人生和投資一樣，需要選擇，看你埋什麼碼頭，基金今年和去年一樣，最後召集，六月四日截止。

伸延閱讀：

賺得仲勁過索羅斯的Uncle Ray

全球最大對沖基金的成功秘訣

看看他們這400多日做了什麼？