Don't make the mistake of ignoring what an all-star roster of the world's richest investors is doing right now. They are buying billions of dollars' worth of gold.
(This is one of many reasons that it makes a lot of sense to have gold in your portfolio. We explain the why and the how in a free 22-page special report you can download here.)
For example, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller has earned an average of 30% a year for 30 years, without a single negative year. And currently, 18% of Druckenmiller's portfolio is made up of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of gold bullion.
George Soros, the man who "broke the bank of England" in the early 1990s, earned $1 billion by shorting the British pound. Along with Jim Rogers, Soros also earned investors a 3,365% return in just 11 years with the Quantum Fund.
Now, Soros owns a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold (ABX) , the largest gold mining company in the world. It is his fund's second-largest holding. But that's not the only gold Soros owns. He also bought more than 1 million option contracts on the SPDR Gold Trust.
Another well-known investor with a stake in gold is David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. Einhorn's investors have seen average annual returns of 16.5% since 1996. Now, he has a $165 million stake in VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) .
The list goes on with other big names like Paul Singer, Carl Icahn and John Paulson all owning large stakes in gold.
Why are so many big-name investors flocking to gold? As Druckenmiller said about his own large stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, it's because of the "absurd notion of negative interest rates."
Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has flipped the world of international finance on its head. The concept of negative interest rates does not make theoretical sense. Instead of the borrower paying the lender with interest, the lender pays the borrower to take his money. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't think this would happen. In 2009 he said, "No one will lend at a negative interest rate; potential creditors will simply choose to hold cash, which pays zero nominal interest."
Total Wealth as at 4 July 2016 = 650,0333 + 382,379 = RM1,032,712 PANAMY的例子告诉我们长期持有的威力，但是可以持有这么久的人应该没有几个。毕竟现在的年轻一代大部分都要看到快钱，要他们持有超过1年都不容易。而且长期持有也必须要选对好的公司，不然抱着一家不派股息又亏钱的股息，公司的股价是很难会有作为的。 股票投资有很多方式，趋势投资，技术分析，价值投资或者股息投资。没有最好的，只有最适合你的。 共勉之。
格林斯潘早年曾是艾茵‧蘭德信徒。1966年曾在《The Objectivist》雜誌發表一篇名為“Gold and Economic Freedom”的文章，主張維護黃金的原始功能，並以金本位的方式，去限制政府胡亂發鈔。想不到他後來竟會去當聯儲局主席，並不斷以減息的方法去擴大貨幣供應；次按危機與全球金融海嘯可謂是他有份搞出來的。不過，他的這篇文章仍值得讀者上網一看。
We received a lot of queries asking if it would be better to wait to buy gold until after the stock market crashes.
After all, Mike has warned that a stock market crash is likely. Given what happened to global markets from the Brexit surprise, it’s a timely question.
And if the market takes a dive, many investors think gold and silver prices will fall, too.
If so, wouldn’t it be better to wait to buy them until after the dust settles?
Probably the best way to answer this is to look at what’s happened in the past…
The Message From History
I looked at past stock market crashes and measured gold and silver’s performance during each of them, to see if there are any lessons we can learn.
The following table shows the eight biggest declines in the S&P over the past 40 years, and how gold and silver responded to each.
There are some reasonable conclusions we can draw from this historical data.
In most cases, the gold price rose during big stock market crashes.Notice this was regardless of whether the crash was short-lived or stretched over a couple years. Gold even climbed in the biggest crash of them all, the 56% decline that lasted two full years in the early 2000s. It seems clear that we should not assume gold will fall in a stock market crash… just the opposite has occurred more often.
The reason for this is because gold generally has a negative correlation with the stock market. In other words, when one goes up, the other tends to go down. Which makes sense… if the stock market falls, fear is usually high—and investors typically seek out the safe haven of gold. If stocks are rocking and rolling, the perceived need for gold from the mainstream is low.
You’ll recall gold did fall in the initial shock of the 2008 financial crisis. But while the S&P continued to decline, gold rebounded and ended the year up 5.5%. Over the total 18-month stock market selloff, gold ended that period up over 25%. The lesson here is that one should not panic if gold temporarily suffers from a stock market collapse. And of course see it as a buying opportunity.
Gold’s only significant selloff (-46% in the early 1980s) occurred just after its biggest bull market in modern history. Gold rose over 2,300% from its 1970 low to the 1980 peak… so it isn’t terribly surprising that it fell with the broader stock market at that point.
We have the opposite situation today. Yes, gold is up roughly 24% year-to-date, but we’re still coming out of a punishing four-year bear market where the price declined by as much as 45%.
Silver did not fare so well during stock market crashes. In fact, it rose in only one of the S&P selloffs (and was basically flat in another one).
This is likely due to silver’s high industrial use, and that stock market selloffs are usually associated with a poor or deteriorating economy.
However, notice that silver’s biggest rise (+15% in the 1970s) took place amidst its biggest bull market in history. It also did not decline during the financial crisis period of late 2007 to early 2009, which was its second biggest bull market. In other words, we have historical precedence that silver could do well in a stock market crash if it is already in a bull market. Otherwise it could struggle.
The overall message from history is this: odds are good that gold won’t crash if the stock market does. Silver might depend on whether it’s in a bull market.
What if the Stock Market Doesn’t Crash?
We have to consider another scenario: what if the stock market doesn’t fall off a cliff?
Or what if it’s just flat for a long period of time? The 1970s (through 1980) saw three recessions, an oil embargo, interest rates that hit 20%, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Look what the S&P did during that turbulent period, along with gold.
The S&P basically went nowhere during the entire decade of the 1970s. After 10 years it was up a measly 14.3% (excluding dividends and commissions). Gold, on the other hand, rose from $35 per ounce to its January 21, 1980 peak of $850, an incredible 2,328%.
In other words, gold’s biggest bull market in modern history occurred while the stock market was essentially flat. That’s because the catalysts for higher gold weren’t solely related to the stock market—they were more about everything else going on at the time. We have to allow for the possibility that this happens again: citizens are drawn to gold due to other pressing concerns besides the performance of the S&P.
I’m not suggesting there won’t be a stock market crash. Odds are better than 50/50 that’s what we’ll get. But if we do, history shows that gold may not crash with it. Or it might fall only temporarily. Or we might not get a crash at all.
For these reasons, I think it is wise to own a good chunk of gold now.
Anything can happen when markets are hit with extraordinary volatility. But consider all the risks we face today… do you really want to be without gold right now? I don’t.
Perhaps the ideal solution is to have a stash of cash ready to deploy if we get another big decline in precious metals—but also have a stash of bullion already set aside in case the next crisis sends gold off to the races.
KUALA LUMPUR (June 27): Budget airline AirAsia Bhd is buying an 80% stake in T & Co Coffee Sdn Bhd (T&Co Coffee) for RM914,000, to provide more lifestyle-focused offering to its passengers by expanding its inflight menu.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, AirAsia said it has entered into an agreement with Datin Charlene Yeo Ming Ling for the proposed acquisition.
The purchase consideration will be satisfied in part by cash of RM814,000 and the remaining RM100,000 by AirAsia credit shell which may be used to pay for flights on all carriers within AirAsia Group.
The airline also entered into a shareholders agreement with Yeo, Datuk Douglas Cheng Heng Lee and T&Co to govern the foregoing parties’ relationship as the shareholders of T&Co.
T&Co has been supplying inflight coffee and tea solutions to AirAsia since December 2013.
AirAsia said the purchase price of RM914,000 is based on T&Co’s agreed valuation of RM1.14 million, derived after taking into consideration its net tangible assets (NTA) of RM280,586 as of June 30, 2015; and the capitalisation of the amount owing to Cheng of RM852,341.
Upon capitalisation, the total shares of T&Co will be increased to 1.1 million, bringing up the NTA per share to RM1.03.
AirAsia said acquiring majority stake in T&Co would allow it to have greater management control on T&Co, which will allow it to focus more on product development.
"Coffee and tea are an important part of the inflight experience. A good coffee and tea offering would help AirAsia differentiate its brand in an increasingly competitive market," it said.
It added that the move would allow AirAsia to raise premiums on beverages, as well as improve the margin.
"A majority stake in T&Co would confer on AAB [AirAsia Bhd], greater control over product planning and development, to ensure they are both in line with the company's vision of delivering the ultimate inflight coffee experience, featuring the best of Asean beans — the 'Barista in the Skies'," it said.
AirAsia shares closed down four sen or 1.53% at RM2.57 today, for a market value of RM7.15 billion.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-buys-80-stake-tco-coffee-rm914000
1QFY16 revenue jumped 31.0% yoy to RM1.7bn on stronger pax traffics (RPK: +26.2% yoy), overall yield improvements (1.4% yoy), higher ancillary income/pax (+11.1% yoy) as well as new revenue recognition of maintenance fee charges to JVs/Associates. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
Margins improved significantly in 1Q16 mainly due to lower jet fuel costs at US$56/bbl (vs. US$75/bbl in 4Q15 and US$85/bbl in 1Q15). AirAsia has hedged 76% of jet fuel requirement for the remaining FY16 at US$54/bbl and 25% of 1H17 at US $58/bbl. Hence, AirAsia’s strong margins is expected to be sustainable. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
TAA (Thailand) also cont ributed strongly at RM94.9m in 1Q16 (+225.8% yoy; +226.1% qoq) on the back of strong demand on China sector as well as low jet fuel costs. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
Outlook on the turnaround of IAA (Indonesia) and PAA (Philippines) seemed promising, after both registered lower operating losses of RM34.6m (-52.8% yoy) and RM32.6m (-54.6% yoy) respectively. The ongoing restructuring effort of IAA (capacity cut & focus on profitable routes) and PAA (fleet restructuring & focus on North Asia sector) continue to improve the load factors, yields and cost structures. The capital restructuring of both entities (new fund injections from other shareholders) are expected to complete by 3Q16. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
JAA (Japan) is expected to commence operation by Oct 2016 with 2 A320s. AAI (India) continued to improve with lower operating losses (-55.6% yoy) as it expanded further. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
Valuation:
In my opinion, fair value of AIRASIA range from 2.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty risk of fair value is HIGH.
Going Forward:
Higher risk that IAA’s convertible bonds (CB) may not be successfully issued, as the CBs are now being marketed to foreigners rather than the initial target of local Indonesian investors
The continued weakening of the Ringgit against the US$ which is on average 12.7% lower compared to FY14. ~70% of operating expenses and 80% of debt are US$ denominated. AirAsia’s US$ debt hedges are at 73% utilising a combination of natural and derivative hedging. Meanwhile, ~8% of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from USD/MYR volatility.
AIRASIA is a beneficiary of lower jet fuel prices with lower hedges in FY16 of US$59/bbl (FY15: US$88/bbl)
Positives:
A persistent appreciation of the Ringgit against the USD (ytd: up +10%) as 65% of AirAsia’s operating expenses and 80% of its debt is USD denominated
Lower jet fuel expenses as Airasia has hedged 72% of its FY16 fuel requirements at a lower US$54/bbl (FY15: US$88/bbl) with 28% exposure to the spot market which is hovering around US$48/bbl
A sustained recovery of its associates, Indonesia AirAsia and Philippines AirAsia
On 1 Apr 2016, the company announced that its founders Tan Sri Tony Fernandes (TSTF) and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun (DKM) have entered into a conditional subscription agreement for 559m new AirAsia shares (representing 16.7% of AirAsia’s enlarged share base) at a price of RM1.84 per share (RM1.80 after adjusting for a 4sen dividend announced on 31/3/2016) to potentially raise RM1b. The subscription of shares will be done via their 50:50 owned entity Tune Live Sdn Bhd (TLSB), raising their shareholding in AirAsia from 18.9% to 32.4% which is just a shy of the 33% trigger in which they would have to make a mandatory general offer. The exercise is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
The main reason AirAsia chose to raise equity funding via share placement to its founders despite announcing earlier in the year a US$1b multi-currency bond programme is due to unfavourable terms for the its bonds in light of weak market sentiment.
The share placement would cause an unwelcomed 15.3% dilution in EPS to existing shareholders. However, shareholders would in return get: 1) a reduction in debt by RM342m which reduces financing costs by RM10.7m; 2) higher equity and lower debt reduceds net gearing from 2.29x to 1.80x; 3) 65.5% of the proceeds are to fund the company’s expansion (capex, new HQ and working capital). Meanwhile, the placement at its market price could be seen as a vote of confidence by its founders in the company’s prospects.
I am still worry about AIRASIA, but I believe AIRASIA will be able to go through these issues.
At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.
SINGAPORE (June 16): Vistara and AirAsia India, airline ventures of India's biggest conglomerate Tata Group, aim to boost their fleet sizes to 20 planes within a year and launch international services after the country overhauled aviation rules, two people familiar with their strategy said.
The Indian government revised on Wednesday its so-called '5/20' policy, removing a restriction that domestic carriers have to operate for five years before they can fly abroad. They must, however, still deploy 20 aircraft or 20% of total capacity in India, whichever is higher.
Vistara and AirAsia India, which began operations in January 2015 and June 2014, respectively, will prioritise services to the Gulf and flights to Southeast Asia to connect with their investors Singapore Airlines and AirAsia, added the sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the press.
Singapore Airlines has a 49% stake in full-service carrier Vistara, while Southeast Asian low-fare pioneer AirAsia owns 49% of budget airline AirAsia India. Tata Group has a 51% stake in Vistara and 49% in AirAsia India.
AirAsia India CEO Amar Abrol said on Wednesday that the airline will increase its fleet from six to 20 aircraft "as soon as possible".
These will come from Malaysia-headquartered AirAsia, which supplies Airbus A320s from its large orderbook to affiliates around Asia. AirAsia declined to comment.
Vistara has 11 A320s and will get two more this year, and it originally planned to have 20 planes by June 2018. All of these are from leasing firms, and it will turn to them for more planes, said a source familiar with the company's plans.
Widebody aircraft could also be on the cards for Vistara, but that is not a priority, added the source.
Singapore Airlines referred questions to Vistara, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Vistara has a three-class configuration with business, premium economy and economy cabins. This is geared towards the higher-yield international segment, where executives believe they can compete against Gulf carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways which dominate the market for travel to and from India.
International services by AirAsia India and Vistara may not significantly hurt incumbents such as Air India, Jet Airways and InterGlobe Aviation's IndiGo, some analysts said.
"We don't really see this as a negative for the competition because in today's global environment, the airlines also need to compete with carriers from abroad and they do not just face the local competition alone," said Pankaj Sharma, Head of Equities, Equirus Securities.
Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by silver swelled to a record as investors sought a haven from global economic and political risk.
Assets expanded 72.6 metric tons to 20,227.2 tons as of Wednesday and have risen 7.3 percent this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices have advanced 28 percent in 2016, outperforming gold, as investors scale back expectations for increases in U.S. interest rates, benefiting precious metals because they don’t offer yields or dividends.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled Wednesday that secular forces may keep borrowing costs lower for longer, which helped push gold to the highest level since 2014. Silver joined the rally, adding 2 percent. Investor anxiety over a British vote June 23 on whether to leave the European Union is also bolstering prices.
“When there is big buying in precious metals, silver sometimes leads the way up,” Bob Takai, chief executive officer and president of Sumitomo Corp. Global Research Co., said by phone from Tokyo. “It’s very natural for investors to run for the safe haven which is gold and silver.”
Investors have added 421.6 tons of gold to exchange-traded funds in 2016, the most for any year since 2009, after reducing holdings for three straight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silver assets have risen 1,370 tons this year, the most since 2012.
‘Value Opportunity’
“The case for silver will just get stronger and stronger because silver was essentially forgotten by much of the investment community for a long time, thereby creating a great value opportunity both in absolute terms and relative to gold,” Gregor Gregersen, chief executive officer and founder of Singapore-based Silver Bullion Pte., said in an e-mail before the data were released.
An ounce of gold bought 73.7 ounces of silver on Thursday from a high of 83.8 ounces at the end of February, which was a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
Silver looks ready to outperform gold now with the ratio moving lower in a consistent fashion, signaling a genuine bull market condition for both metals, according to Ned Naylor-Leyland, manager of Old Mutual’s Gold and Silver Fund in London.
上图是在PANAMY的ANNUAL REPORT 获得的计算，假设当初的Initial Capital是RM1,350, 在资金增长+股息收入的成长下，50年的回酬将如上。不过以上的价格计算时RM22.00,所以笔者以最新的股价RM29.82以及加入2015年12月收到的15仙的股息计算，50年的投资将会让你的RM1,350的投资变成RM1,032,712。
经过多次的的红股以及1975年的附加股，投资手上将会有19,034股PANAMY.
以上的RCECAP是因4：1 consolidation，所以不应该上榜，以上失误请大家多对见谅。
