AirAsia-Norwegian Air cooperation in the works

Tony Fernandes and Norwegian Air’s boss discuss possibility of sending passengers into each other’s network routes.

 

Oslo: More tourists from Scandinavian countries and Europe might be flying into Kuala Lumpur and Asia if a move by AirAsia to tie-up with Norwegian Air materialises.
AirAsia and Norwegian Air are exploring a possible joint venture, according to Norwegian newspaper Dagens Naeringsliv (DN).
AirAsia founder Tony Fernandes met Norwegian Air founder and chief executive Bjorn Kjos for the first time at the Farnborough International Airshow, it said.
The newspaper said they discussed the possibility of sending their passengers into each other’s route networks in Europe and Asia.
Newsinenglish.no quoted DN as saying the cooperation could start in about a year and that it would create a new era in route offerings for Norwegian passengers in Asia.
The two airlines, it said, had a lot in common, growing at a rapid pace on the back of relatively cheap airline tickets and creating wide route networks in their respective markets.

AirAsia has more than 200 routes in Asia using mostly Airbus aircraft while Norwegian Air has an extensive route system within Scandinavia and Europe, and is keen on expanding its intercontinental routes as well.
DN reported that Fernandes pointed to a Norwegian Air button he was wearing on his lapel, asked Kjos for his phone number and said he wanted to fly to Oslo for a serious talk.
It quoted Fernandes as telling Kjos at the airshow: “We’ve never had the opportunity to meet each other before now. If I get the opportunity to come to Oslo, we should sit down and talk. Why not?”
The two airlines could soon be competing on intercontinental routes between Europe and Asia as Fernandes intends to re-launch a route between Kuala Lumpur and London.
He had also mentioned flying into one of the Scandinavian capitals as well, feeding passengers into Norwegian Air’s route system for onward travel. Kjos, the report said, didn’t reject the idea.
“We wish him welcome and like competition,” Kjos told DN, calling Fernandes “a great guy” who leads “a very good airline”.
At Farnborough, Norwegian Air won the Skytrax Award as Europe’s best airline for the fourth time, and as the best long-distance low fare airline for the second time. The Skytrax prizes are based on votes from passengers worldwide.
AirAsia, meanwhile, won four prizes including the one for the best low-fare airline in the world.
“These are the world’s two best airlines,” Kjos claimed as he stood with Fernandes at Farnborough, according to DN. The prizes “show that the customers like our product. They’re the ones who voted for us.”

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2016/07/14/airasia-norwegian-air-cooperation-in-the-works/

A321neo orders good for AirAsia

AirAsia Bhd
June 13 (RM2.75)Maintain add with an unchanged target price of RM4.15: Investors whom we spoke to on AirAsia Bhd’s order of A321neos have generally been cautious about the potential orders, fearing that AirAsia is once again over expanding. Investors did not like the additional 100 orders which come at a list price of US$125.7 million (RM499 million) each, as they come on top of the undelivered 304 A320neo orders. However, we believe that the orders are good for the AirAsia group, and there is no need to fear.
From an operational perspective, the A321neos are good for AirAsia. A321neos usually seat 220 passengers, but from 2018, a new version with 240 seats will be offered. The A320s currently seat 180, but this can be raised to 186 under a new configuration. So, the new A321neos offer 33% more capacity than AirAsia’s current fleet, and can help AirAsia optimise the service of existing high-density routes.
This will be important for AirAsia on routes such as Kuala Lumpur to Kota Kinabalu, where it had wet leased several of AirAsia X’s A330s this year to cater to the strong demand at specific flight timings. A higher-capacity aircraft can also help AirAsia reduce its unit flying costs, which will improve flight profitability for thick routes.
Airport congestion is also a major issue that is being faced by Asean airports. For instance, Cebu Pacific Air currently has 30 A321neos on order, against a fully delivered fleet of 38 A320s. This is important since the Manila airport is very congested, and also affecting AirAsia Philippines.
Thai AirAsia is facing similar congestion issues at Bangkok Don Muang, and Indonesia AirAsia in Jakarta. So we think a good number of the A321neos may be placed outside Malaysia.
Also, history has shown that AirAsia has significant flexibility to negotiate deferrals with Airbus when needed, so the orders placed today are meant to secure the future delivery slots. Should demand slow in future, we are confident that AirAsia will be able to defer the deliveries to avoid overcapacity.
The A321neo orders may be parked under the leasing arm Asia Aviation Capital (AAC). We expect this to boost the valuation of AAC to above the US$1 billion which is already on the table from a potential Chinese buyer, as it locks in future delivery slots at what we expect to be attractive prices.
A higher valuation for AAC has the potential to boost upcoming special dividends upon the partial sale of AAC.
If and when a formal announcement on the A321neo orders are made, we would look at several details including: i) over how many years the 100 A321neo orders will be delivered; ii) when the A321neo deliveries will start; and iii) whether the 100 new A321neo orders will replace some of the A320neos that are currently on order.
If the orders are spread out over many years and deliveres do not start until several years later, we expect current investors’ concerns to be alleviated. The major risk to AirAsia is if there is a terrorist attack on Malaysian soil, which could impact inbound travel demand into Malaysia, much like the Erawan shrine bombing in August 2015 which affected tourist arrivals into Thailand. — CIMB Research, July 12
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a321neo-orders-good-airasia

This Is Why the World’s Most Successful Investors Are Buying Gold Now

Don't make the mistake of ignoring what an all-star roster of the world's richest investors is doing right now. They are buying billions of dollars' worth of gold.

(This is one of many reasons that it makes a lot of sense to have gold in your portfolio. We explain the why and the how in a free 22-page special report you can download here.)

For example, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller has earned an average of 30% a year for 30 years, without a single negative year. And currently, 18% of Druckenmiller's portfolio is made up of the SPDR Gold Trust  (GLD) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of gold bullion.

George Soros, the man who "broke the bank of England" in the early 1990s, earned $1 billion by shorting the British pound. Along with Jim Rogers, Soros also earned investors a 3,365% return in just 11 years with the Quantum Fund.

Now, Soros owns a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold  (ABX) , the largest gold mining company in the world. It is his fund's second-largest holding. But that's not the only gold Soros owns. He also bought more than 1 million option contracts on the SPDR Gold Trust.

Another well-known investor with a stake in gold is David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. Einhorn's investors have seen average annual returns of 16.5% since 1996. Now, he has a $165 million stake in VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF  (GDX) .

The list goes on with other big names like Paul Singer, Carl Icahn and John Paulson all owning large stakes in gold.

Why are so many big-name investors flocking to gold? As Druckenmiller said about his own large stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, it's because of the "absurd notion of negative interest rates."

Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has flipped the world of international finance on its head. The concept of negative interest rates does not make theoretical sense. Instead of the borrower paying the lender with interest, the lender pays the borrower to take his money. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't think this would happen. In 2009 he said, "No one will lend at a negative interest rate; potential creditors will simply choose to hold cash, which pays zero nominal interest."

松下50周年- PANAMY(3719)上市50周年，50年从RM1,350 变成RM1,032,712,

我们都知道PUBLIC BANK的神话，因为它造就了无数的百万富翁。而今天要跟大家分享另外一家消费股神话，那就是松下电器PANAMY。这家公司的产品出现在很多人的家里，例如风扇，冷气，热水器，电饭锅等。而PANAMY的股价都是高于RM10, 是消费大象股。

不过它是一家净现金公司，而且派息非常大方，最近5年的平均派息%高达92.1%。也就是说公司每年平均赚RM100, 其中的RM92.1都会拿来派发股息。所以这家公司是股息投资者的最爱，因为过去几年的周息率介于4 - 7%之间。假设投资者在1966年IPO买进RM1,000股，过后在1975年subscribe RM350的附加股。当时的RM1,350资本在50年后就会变成了RM1,032,712( 7月4日股价 = RM29.82)。以下是计算方式。

上图是在PANAMY的ANNUAL REPORT 获得的计算，假设当初的Initial Capital是RM1,350, 在资金增长+股息收入的成长下，50年的回酬将如上。不过以上的价格计算时RM22.00,所以笔者以最新的股价RM29.82以及加入2015年12月收到的15仙的股息计算，50年的投资将会让你的RM1,350的投资变成RM1,032,712。

经过多次的的红股以及1975年的附加股，投资手上将会有19,034股PANAMY.

以RM29.82计算，投资持股的价值如下：

19384*29.82 = RM 650,0333

50年的股息收入如下：

2016年收到15仙的股息 = 19384*0.15=2907.6
Total Dividend = 379,472+2907 = 382,379

Total Wealth as at 4 July 2016 = 650,0333 + 382,379 = RM1,032,712

PANAMY的例子告诉我们长期持有的威力，但是可以持有这么久的人应该没有几个。毕竟现在的年轻一代大部分都要看到快钱，要他们持有超过1年都不容易。而且长期持有也必须要选对好的公司，不然抱着一家不派股息又亏钱的股息，公司的股价是很难会有作为的。

股票投资有很多方式，趋势投资，技术分析，价值投资或者股息投资。没有最好的，只有最适合你的。

共勉之。

觀點 - 施永青 黃金會恢復歷史上的功能嗎？

有論者認為：這只是一時的恐懼所造成，黃金不可能恢復它的貨幣功能；因為全世界的政府都不想失去發鈔的權力；只要政府在操控經濟環境時略佔上風，政府都會盡全力打擊民眾對黃金的偏好，設法讓人們相信，黃金遲早會變爛銅。 

現實是：全球各處的文明，都曾在一段相當長的歷史時段上，以黃金作為易物媒介，以及作為主要的財富儲存工具。 

在原始時代，人類的生產力有限，只能採摘與捕獵上天提供給他們的食物，所獲僅夠糊口。到生產力上升，所獲有餘的時候，就可以用自己所餘去換自己所需。譬如，自己所養的雞生了很多蛋，吃不完，可以與鄰家換點稻米。但可能鄰家也有養雞，不需要你的蛋，導致這項以物換物的交易沒法成交。因此，最好先把自己的雞蛋換成一種大部分人都願意接受的東西(如黃金)，那就用來換甚麼東西都可以。 

黃金閃閃發光，大多數人都會喜歡，可以接受用作交易媒介。黃金相對稀有，並非隨處可摘，價格相對穩定。黃金不易有化學變化，長期儲存也不會變質，極適合用作財富儲存工具。 

黃金的貨幣功能，源自黃金本身的物理性質，不容易人為地被剝奪。相反，由政府發行的貨幣，其實只是一張印刷品，其交換能力與儲存價值，全靠政府立法保障；一旦政府失去權力或財力不足，其保障就會成為一句空話。 

近年，全世界大部分政府在財政上都有赤字，都在一定的程度上濫發鈔票，以至貨幣的增長速度遠遠快過整體的財富增長速度。結果是貨幣的購買力不斷蒸發，同一分量的貨幣可以代表的財富不斷減少。這等同政府正不斷地把人民的財產充公。 

私有產權是人權的主要部分。不保障私有產權的地方(如社會主義國家)，通常連其他方面的人權也一併不太尊重。只可惜一般人權組織只關心與產權無關的人權，甚少意識到在貨幣上的量化寬鬆其實也是一種侵權行為，而且受害人眾多。更有一批為虎作倀的學者，長期為政府的無錨發鈔做法辯護，刻意貶低黃金的天然貨幣功能。 

格林斯潘早年曾是艾茵‧蘭德信徒。1966年曾在《The Objectivist》雜誌發表一篇名為“Gold and Economic Freedom”的文章，主張維護黃金的原始功能，並以金本位的方式，去限制政府胡亂發鈔。想不到他後來竟會去當聯儲局主席，並不斷以減息的方法去擴大貨幣供應；次按危機與全球金融海嘯可謂是他有份搞出來的。不過，他的這篇文章仍值得讀者上網一看。 

英國脫歐後，人們預期各國政府都會繼續量化寬鬆，為了避免自己的財產不斷地被政府充公，人們於是減持現金，增持實物資產，包括黃金與地產。我估計會作出這樣選擇的人將愈來愈多。

2016马股上半年涨幅最多的30家公司

FROM: 1296.【马股风云榜】- 2016马股上半年涨幅最多的30家公司,10家公司上涨超过100%！！
2016年就这样度过了一半，而大马KLCI指数也在【橱窗粉饰】的效应下上涨了11.57点，闭市1,653.78点。不过2016上半年KLCI指数下跌了38.72点，相当于2.29%。不过今年还有6个月的时间可以冲刺，或许马股可以逃离KLCI指数连续3年下跌的厄运。

今天准备了4大马股榜单跟大家分享，分别是：

1. 【上涨%最多】的30家公司

2. 【RM1以上】%上涨最多的20家公司

3. 【股价涨幅】最多的20家公司

4. 【美金出口股】跌幅最惨重的其中15家公司！

今天分享的数据准确度有98%以上，若有些许失误，请多多包涵。

以上的RCECAP是因4：1 consolidation，所以不应该上榜，以上失误请大家多对见谅。

• 今年一共有10家公司的涨幅超过100%，当中最风光的莫过于航空股AAX以及AIRAXIA，在10大涨幅股当中，只有AIRASIA的股价是超过RM1的。
• 不过从上图的30家【涨幅%】最高的公司来看，大部分的公司都是来自航空，钢铁，消费，科技以及【热炒仙股】。
• 而当中股价超过RM2的只有5家，分别是AIRASIA, PMETAL, TRIPLC,SLP以及AJI.

• 以上的榜单是股价超过RM1，【涨幅%】最高的20家公司。
• 这20家公司大部分来自消费服贸，工业以及建筑领域。
• 当中的大象股就有AJI, F&N以及SCIENTX。借此我们可以看到，只要有【价值】的大象股，股价再贵也是可以上涨的。

• 而上图20家公司是股价涨幅最高的公司，消费股可说是今年的大赢家，一共有9家入榜，6家工业股，其他就是种植，金融以及服贸股。
• 而这20家公司当中，2015年有18家的盈利是进步的，2016Q1只有3家盈利退步，分别是LAYHONG, PIE以及UTDPLT。
• 所以【盈利永远是决定股价】的首要因素，亏钱的公司是很难有这样的表现的。

• 最后1个榜单就是去年非常火热的出口股，以上15家公司去年平均上涨152.3%,但是今年全部平均下跌了29.49%。【所以说股市欠你的，它一定会还给你。而你欠股市的，它迟早会收回。】
• 当中大部分来手套，科技以及家私领域。而在2016Q1的业绩当中，超过半数也就是8家的公司盈利YOY是下跌的。所以大家可以看到跌幅比较严重的10家有8家都是盈利下跌，而跌幅比较少的10家公司在2016Q1盈利都是有进步的。
• 但是在最新的季度当中，COMFORT, VS以及POHUAT的盈利YOY都退步了。

以上纯属数据分享，希望可以让大家对2016上半年的走势有更加深入的了解。

以上纯属分享，买卖自负。

浅谈建筑领域，10家平均涨幅19.77%的建筑股。

From: 1298.【建筑风潮】- 浅谈建筑领域，10家平均涨幅19.77%的建筑股。

今年会有不少建筑合约公布，7-8月将会公布的就有Sarawak的Pan Borneo Highway合约，8项建筑合约接近100亿马币。相信不少投资者已经把目光放在建筑版块，准备从中获利。之前的KIMLUN就是因为获得了Pan Borne Highway的合约，所以股价一度突破历史新高 - RM1.95.

今天跟大家分享一些在2016年表现不错或者具有潜质的建筑公司，希望这些功课可以帮到大家。

• 今年建筑领域优质股大部分跑赢大市，其中涨幅最多的就是TRIPLC, 涨幅高达80.80%。
• 而另外4家涨幅超过20%的公司就有KIMLUN, KERJAYA, GKENT以及ECONBHD。而股价暂时下跌的就有GADANG以及HSL。
• 10家公司平均PE大约是13.11， PE低过10的只有4家，分别是GADANG, KIMLUM，MITRA以及ECONBHD.
• 在众多公司当中，GADANG有冷眼前辈以及大基金护航，但是股价暂时落后大市。GADANG的业绩将会在这个月公布，希望会为投资者带来好消息。
• 而GKENT今天突破了历史新高，主要是交出不错的业绩盈利，而且手握50亿的合约。此外公司也表明在竞标着更多的合约，在GKENT的TOP 30 股东会看到大神级的人物哦。
• ECONBHD的盈利从来没有让人失望过，下个季度的盈利相信YOY一定会进步。加上高Profit Margin以及Net cash，它深受广大投资者的看好。
• 笔者持有2年多的MITRA因为最近MITRA-WD convert，所以股数增加导致EPS 被diluted。这可能是股价下跌的原因，不过今年股价还是有5.83%的涨幅。MITRA本身也在竞标着PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY的合约，希望会有好消息出来。
• SUNCON最新季度的盈利虽然下跌了15.14%，不过手握50亿的合约还是备受看好。股价今年涨幅15%，派息4仙。
• HSL虽然是Sarawak最大的建筑公司, 而且获得不少建筑合约，股价还是在盈利下跌的情况下下跌的，今年跌幅9.52%.

总结：
建筑领域不单单要靠大笔的建筑合约，本身的管理层以及Profit Margin也是非常重要的。有一些建筑公司获得再多的合约，但是公司还是可以面临亏损。因此好的建筑公司不单单要会拿订单，它还要确认公司的毛利率可以在水准之上。

虽然今年不少建筑股已经上涨了不少，但是只要盈利继续进步，接下来派发的建筑合约将会是股价走高的利好消息。

Gold and Silver? - Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

From: https://goldsilver.com/news/if-the-stock-market-crashes-what-happens-to-gold-and-silver-jeff-clark-senior-precious-metals-analyst/ We received a lot of queries asking if it would be better to wait to buy gold until after the stock market crashes. After all, Mike has warned that a stock market crash is likely. Given what happened to global markets from the Brexit surprise, it’s a timely question. And if the market takes a dive, many investors think gold and silver prices will fall, too. If so, wouldn’t it be better to wait to buy them until after the dust settles? Probably the best way to answer this is to look at what’s happened in the past…   The Message From History I looked at past stock market crashes and measured gold and silver’s performance during each of them, to see if there are any lessons we can learn. The following table shows the eight biggest declines in the S&P over the past 40 years, and how gold and silver responded to each.

There are some reasonable conclusions we can draw from this historical data.   In most cases, the gold price rose during big stock market crashes.Notice this was regardless of whether the crash was short-lived or stretched over a couple years. Gold even climbed in the biggest crash of them all, the 56% decline that lasted two full years in the early 2000s. It seems clear that we should not assume gold will fall in a stock market crash… just the opposite has occurred more often. The reason for this is because gold generally has a negative correlation with the stock market. In other words, when one goes up, the other tends to go down. Which makes sense… if the stock market falls, fear is usually high—and investors typically seek out the safe haven of gold. If stocks are rocking and rolling, the perceived need for gold from the mainstream is low. You’ll recall gold did fall in the initial shock of the 2008 financial crisis. But while the S&P continued to decline, gold rebounded and ended the year up 5.5%. Over the total 18-month stock market selloff, gold ended that period up over 25%. The lesson here is that one should not panic if gold temporarily suffers from a stock market collapse. And of course see it as a buying opportunity.   Gold’s only significant selloff (-46% in the early 1980s) occurred just after its biggest bull market in modern history. Gold rose over 2,300% from its 1970 low to the 1980 peak… so it isn’t terribly surprising that it fell with the broader stock market at that point. We have the opposite situation today. Yes, gold is up roughly 24% year-to-date, but we’re still coming out of a punishing four-year bear market where the price declined by as much as 45%.   Silver did not fare so well during stock market crashes. In fact, it rose in only one of the S&P selloffs (and was basically flat in another one). This is likely due to silver’s high industrial use, and that stock market selloffs are usually associated with a poor or deteriorating economy. However, notice that silver’s biggest rise (+15% in the 1970s) took place amidst its biggest bull market in history. It also did not decline during the financial crisis period of late 2007 to early 2009, which was its second biggest bull market. In other words, we have historical precedence that silver could do well in a stock market crash if it is already in a bull market. Otherwise it could struggle. The overall message from history is this: odds are good that gold won’t crash if the stock market does. Silver might depend on whether it’s in a bull market.   What if the Stock Market Doesn’t Crash? We have to consider another scenario: what if the stock market doesn’t fall off a cliff? Or what if it’s just flat for a long period of time? The 1970s (through 1980) saw three recessions, an oil embargo, interest rates that hit 20%, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Look what the S&P did during that turbulent period, along with gold.

The S&P basically went nowhere during the entire decade of the 1970s. After 10 years it was up a measly 14.3% (excluding dividends and commissions). Gold, on the other hand, rose from $35 per ounce to its January 21, 1980 peak of $850, an incredible 2,328%. In other words, gold’s biggest bull market in modern history occurred while the stock market was essentially flat. That’s because the catalysts for higher gold weren’t solely related to the stock market—they were more about everything else going on at the time. We have to allow for the possibility that this happens again: citizens are drawn to gold due to other pressing concerns besides the performance of the S&P. I’m not suggesting there won’t be a stock market crash. Odds are better than 50/50 that’s what we’ll get. But if we do, history shows that gold may not crash with it. Or it might fall only temporarily. Or we might not get a crash at all. For these reasons, I think it is wise to own a good chunk of gold now. Anything can happen when markets are hit with extraordinary volatility. But consider all the risks we face today… do you really want to be without gold right now? I don’t. Perhaps the ideal solution is to have a stash of cash ready to deploy if we get another big decline in precious metals—but also have a stash of bullion already set aside in case the next crisis sends gold off to the races.

AirAsia buys 80% stake in T&Co Coffee for RM914,000

KUALA LUMPUR (June 27): Budget airline AirAsia Bhd is buying an 80% stake in T & Co Coffee Sdn Bhd (T&Co Coffee) for RM914,000, to provide more lifestyle-focused offering to its passengers by expanding its inflight menu.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia today, AirAsia said it has entered into an agreement with Datin Charlene Yeo Ming Ling for the proposed acquisition.
The purchase consideration will be satisfied in part by cash of RM814,000 and the remaining RM100,000 by AirAsia credit shell which may be used to pay for flights on all carriers within AirAsia Group.
The airline also entered into a shareholders agreement with Yeo, Datuk Douglas Cheng Heng Lee and T&Co to govern the foregoing parties’ relationship as the shareholders of T&Co.
T&Co has been supplying inflight coffee and tea solutions to AirAsia since December 2013.
AirAsia said the purchase price of RM914,000 is based on T&Co’s agreed valuation of RM1.14 million, derived after taking into consideration its net tangible assets (NTA) of RM280,586 as of June 30, 2015; and the capitalisation of the amount owing to Cheng of RM852,341.
Upon capitalisation, the total shares of T&Co will be increased to 1.1 million, bringing up the NTA per share to RM1.03.
AirAsia said acquiring majority stake in T&Co would allow it to have greater management control on T&Co, which will allow it to focus more on product development.
"Coffee and tea are an important part of the inflight experience. A good coffee and tea offering would help AirAsia differentiate its brand in an increasingly competitive market," it said.
It added that the move would allow AirAsia to raise premiums on beverages, as well as improve the margin.
"A majority stake in T&Co would confer on AAB [AirAsia Bhd], greater control over product planning and development, to ensure they are both in line with the company's vision of delivering the ultimate inflight coffee experience, featuring the best of Asean beans — the 'Barista in the Skies'," it said.
AirAsia shares closed down four sen or 1.53% at RM2.57 today, for a market value of RM7.15 billion.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-buys-80-stake-tco-coffee-rm914000

AIRASIA – Fundamental Analysis (28 Jun 2016) - L. C. Chong

Excel – Download the analysis file

Latest Financial – Q1 2016 Financial Report (26 May 2016)

FY16 Q1 Results Highlight:

• 1QFY16 revenue jumped 31.0% yoy to RM1.7bn on stronger pax traffics (RPK: +26.2% yoy), overall yield improvements (1.4% yoy), higher ancillary income/pax (+11.1% yoy) as well as new revenue recognition of maintenance fee charges to JVs/Associates. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
• Margins improved significantly in 1Q16 mainly due to lower jet fuel costs at US$56/bbl (vs. US$75/bbl in 4Q15 and US$85/bbl in 1Q15). AirAsia has hedged 76% of jet fuel requirement for the remaining FY16 at US$54/bbl and 25% of 1H17 at US $58/bbl. Hence, AirAsia’s strong margins is expected to be sustainable. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
• TAA (Thailand) also cont ributed strongly at RM94.9m in 1Q16 (+225.8% yoy; +226.1% qoq) on the back of strong demand on China sector as well as low jet fuel costs. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
• Outlook on the turnaround of IAA (Indonesia) and PAA (Philippines) seemed promising, after both registered lower operating losses of RM34.6m (-52.8% yoy) and RM32.6m (-54.6% yoy) respectively. The ongoing restructuring effort of IAA (capacity cut & focus on profitable routes) and PAA (fleet restructuring & focus on North Asia sector) continue to improve the load factors, yields and cost structures. The capital restructuring of both entities (new fund injections from other shareholders) are expected to complete by 3Q16. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)
• JAA (Japan) is expected to commence operation by Oct 2016 with 2 A320s. AAI (India) continued to improve with lower operating losses (-55.6% yoy) as it expanded further. (Hong Leong 27 May 2016)

Valuation:

• In my opinion, fair value of AIRASIA range from 2.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty risk of fair value is HIGH.

Going Forward:

• Higher risk that IAA’s convertible bonds (CB) may not be successfully issued, as the CBs are now being marketed to foreigners rather than the initial target of local Indonesian investors
• The continued weakening of the Ringgit against the US$ which is on average 12.7% lower compared to FY14. ~70% of operating expenses and 80% of debt are US$ denominated. AirAsia’s US$ debt hedges are at 73% utilising a combination of natural and derivative hedging. Meanwhile, ~8% of operating costs are hedged to reduce the impact from USD/MYR volatility.
• AIRASIA is a beneficiary of lower jet fuel prices with lower hedges in FY16 of US$59/bbl (FY15: US$88/bbl)
• Positives:
  • A persistent appreciation of the Ringgit against the USD (ytd: up +10%) as 65% of AirAsia’s operating expenses and 80% of its debt is USD denominated
  • Lower jet fuel expenses as Airasia has hedged 72% of its FY16 fuel requirements at a lower US$54/bbl (FY15: US$88/bbl) with 28% exposure to the spot market which is hovering around US$48/bbl
  • A sustained recovery of its associates, Indonesia AirAsia and Philippines AirAsia
• On 1 Apr 2016, the company announced that its founders Tan Sri Tony Fernandes (TSTF) and Datuk Kamarudin Meranun (DKM) have entered into a conditional subscription agreement for 559m new AirAsia shares (representing 16.7% of AirAsia’s enlarged share base) at a price of RM1.84 per share (RM1.80 after adjusting for a  4sen dividend announced on 31/3/2016) to potentially raise RM1b. The subscription of shares will be done via their 50:50 owned entity Tune Live Sdn Bhd (TLSB), raising their shareholding in AirAsia from 18.9% to 32.4% which is just a shy of the 33% trigger in which they would have to make a mandatory general offer. The exercise is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
  • The main reason AirAsia chose to raise equity funding via share placement to its founders despite announcing earlier in the year a US$1b multi-currency bond programme is due to unfavourable terms for the its bonds in light of weak market sentiment.
  • The share  placement  would cause an unwelcomed 15.3% dilution in EPS to existing shareholders. However, shareholders would in return get: 1) a reduction in debt by RM342m which reduces financing costs by RM10.7m; 2) higher equity  and lower debt reduceds net gearing from 2.29x to 1.80x; 3) 65.5% of the proceeds are to fund the company’s expansion (capex, new HQ and working capital). Meanwhile, the placement at its market price could be seen as a vote of confidence by its founders in the company’s prospects.
• I am still worry about AIRASIA, but I believe AIRASIA will be able to go through these issues.

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/airasia-fundamental-analysis-28-jun-2016/