我們正身處一個前所未見的經濟環境，有懷疑？看看這個數字：12.6萬億美元。這是在目前負息環境下交易中的政府債券和企業債券總面值。沒錯，負息債券也有人在買賣，非常奇怪，但的確正在發生。
交易員和投資者沒有瘋掉，他們不過是盡量在愈來
愈非理性的世界中作出最理智的決定。當眼前所有選擇都很糟糕，無論選哪個，結果都不會好。
負利率合理嗎？可能吧，如果現金變得無人想要，又或者有人希望現金變得無人想要，促使更多人願意冒險投資（至少部分央行官員有這種心思）。然而，消費者和企業實際上存起更多錢，即使利率甚低，甚至處于負水平。
另一方面，現金沒落與網絡盛行同時發生並非湊巧，現在可以從網上免費得到的知識，在70年代要花費很多錢，因此，在現代科技環境下，即使沒有央行操控，利率可能也會很低，但只可以猜測，無法透過實驗得知，就像央行官員一樣，只可估計新措施的效果，沒有實際證據支持。現在讓我們來看看負息政策對經濟構成的6個負面影響。
1.無法刺激經濟
美國聯儲局相信低息能夠刺激內需，但過去8年的經驗證明這是錯的，經濟增長最多只可說是溫和，更糟糕的是，需求非但沒有反彈，反而因為儲蓄增加和消費減少而變得更弱。
理由其實很簡單，如果你是靠利息維持生活的退休人士，在低息或負息環境下，要得到收入，就要冒險投資長期債券、垃圾債券和優先股等資產，想得到更多緩沖，唯一的方法是減少不必要的開銷。企業和消費者一樣在囤積現金。蘋果、微軟這些美國大科企就算不是為了避稅，也會選擇在海外存放大量資金，一來他們要控制開支，二來現在可投資的項目很少，于是那些錢就放在一旁，沒有發揮任何作用。
2.違背凱恩斯理論
聯儲局在2008年金融危機時放水是對的，但之後多年保持極低利率的做法就說不過去，因為這既傷害存戶，也沒有刺激增長，就連聯儲局趨之若鶩的經濟學家凱恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）也說過，利率必須反映現實，局內人才那麼多，竟然沒有人覺得不妥，實在是個謎。
凱恩斯指出，作出借貸的人需要收取足夠的利息，才能抵消稅務及承擔風險的相關開支，零息做不到，負息更加不可能。利率是有底線的，而且肯定在零水平以上，愈是接近零，刺激經濟的作用就愈低，低至某個水平就會開始產生不良效果。
19世紀著名英國經濟學者白芝浩（Walter Bagehot）在其著作《倫巴第街：貨幣市場概說》（Lombard Street: A description of the money market）中提到，作為「最後貸款人」（lender of last resort），英倫銀行應該在有需要時大量放貸，但要收取溢價利息以及優質抵押品。然而，現代央行只跟從了大量放貸這個原則，聯儲局在2008年更是反其道而行，無限制地放水，基本上是免費借貸，而且幾乎沒有收取任何抵押品，銀行當然像螞蟻見蜜糖一樣沖過去，要他們放手也很難。
3.政策癱瘓
要怎樣矯正這個錯誤，又不至于令金融市場動蕩是個難題。標普500指數目前的回報率是2%左右，但股市風險高是眾所周知的事，如果投資國債或存錢到銀行能夠賺取同等甚至更高的回報，誰也不願冒這個險。
加息雖然可以增加存戶的利息收入，但如果利率突然正常化，股市將會受挫，而聯儲局現在最不想做的，就是傷害股市。既然聯儲局不願動手，美國就只可以原地踏步，期望有一天情況會自己改變。這一天是會到來的，但筆者認為那不會是令人開心的改變，因為到時聯儲局官員可能需要采取更不尋常的貨幣政策。
4.無聲扼殺保險公司
保險公司和退休基金的盈利依靠合理的長期投資回報，然而在低息環境下，他們愈來愈難維持回報承諾，一些規模比銀行更大的歐洲保險公司最慘，監管規例強迫他們投資長期政府債券，但現在很多都是負息，試問投資負回報的資產怎麼可能賺錢？
至于銀行，負息肯定造成打擊，但暫時還沒有出現極端情況，部分銀行開始采取行動保護自己，例如蘇格蘭皇家銀行（RBS）上周說，可能向部分企業客戶的存款收息，有些德國銀行已經這樣做，也有銀行采取裁員、關閉分行等削減開支措施。
5.扭曲市場訊號
歐洲央行行長德拉吉（Mario Draghi）承諾「不惜一切」振興歐羅區經濟，然後推出負息政策和買債計劃等非傳統措施，央行的幹預和偏好也逐漸顯現。
《華爾街日報》上周報道，歐央行繞過公開市場直接買入兩家西班牙公司的債券，而且不打算告訴任何人，背後原因不得而知，但反映央行在公開市場上已經找不到可買的東西。
有美國公司的歐洲分支利用這個機會，發行一些可讓歐央行購買的債券，從企業角度來說完全合理，問題是這樣做會扭曲市場信息，導致其他玩家做出不良的投資決定。正如下【圖】所示，符合歐央行購買資格的企業債券表現明顯較好，而且有愈來愈好的趨勢：
到底這是因為這些債券本身比較優質，還是受到隨時可能停止的歐央行購買計劃影響，實在無法得知，歐洲債券投資者也沒有清晰的數據讓他們可以作出最好的決定，部分肯定會選擇離場，從而令歐央行「獨買」的情況更加嚴重，也正好與當局的原意背道而馳。
6.打壓退休人士
將此放到最後，是因為筆者認為，這是零息、負息、量寬等非傳統貨幣政策最令人氣憤的地方──央行因為自己的武斷而犯錯，卻要一般人來承擔後果。
筆者很少引用自己的文章，但2月那篇〈救市拖累 零風險退休成絕唱〉部分關于退休保障的內容實在值得回顧一下：
無論閣下還是替閣下管理積蓄的巨型退休基金，都無法賺取足夠的無風險收入，確保你能過舒適的退休生活。
何解？因為這是貨幣政策掌舵人的旨意，退休人士及他們的退休金都成為犧牲品，只為「完成大我」。據這些充滿憐憫之心的掌舵人所知，日後要快快樂樂地退休，最重要的先決條件是經濟增長；他們認為，沒有寬松貨幣環境，就不能孕育經濟增長。因此，他們幾年前把息口減至零，滿以為不久就能再度加息，讓大家的退休大計重拾正軌之余，又毋須威脅到日後經濟增長。增長引擎將再次啟動，一切又會恢複正常。
神機妙算原來不過如此，在刺激經濟的戰事中，你我只是可以犧牲的無名小卒，曆經槍林彈雨驚魂未定，眼前所見， 經濟戰場幻化成零息平原及負息幽谷。
筆者下周將與大家探討低利率和寬松政策造成的「傷亡」，以及這種「傷亡」與經濟複蘇不慍不火之間的關系。其實美國經濟有沒有寬松貨幣政策也會複蘇，聯儲局這些年來的低息政策反而扭曲了複蘇過程，令那些一生勤奮工作，並嘗試為退休作出合理安排的人遭殃。
Friday, September 2, 2016
Macquire: Gold should be $2,000/oz
Earlier this week, analysts at Deutsche Bank published research claiming that gold should be trading at $1,700 an ounce, due balance sheet expansion at central banks. Not to be outdone, Australian bank Macquarie has come out with an even more optimistic forecast for the price of the yellow metal.
Silver Mining vs. Gold Mining: The Dynamics Explained
According to Macquarie’s commodities research team, gold should be trading at $2,000/oz. The team argues that with all the prevailing political and economic uncertainty stalking the markets, the price of gold should be around 53% higher than it is today.
Firstly, the bank’s analysts take a page out of the S&P 500 CEO’s handbook and blame the strong dollar. Just as S&P 500 companies have been blaming the strong dollar for weak earnings for the past 24 months, Macquarie points out that if measured in other currencies the price of gold is much closer to its 2011 peak.
Investment Slows, Soft Summer ‘Risks $1300’ But Bond Defaults ‘Will Spike’
For example, in sterling terms, the price of gold is around £1,000/oz at the time of writing compared to the 2011 peak of £1180/oz. Meanwhile, gold priced in South African rand is trading more than 33% above its 2011 high of ZAR 15,000 at ZAR 19,157. That said, this rally has more to do with a weak rand and South Africa’s economic troubles. Since 2011 the rand has lost a tremendous amount of value, up from 7.1 to the dollar in 2011 to 14.6 today as devaluation that will have wiped out almost all of your gold gains.
Silver Mining vs. Gold Mining: The Dynamics Explained
According to Macquarie’s commodities research team, gold should be trading at $2,000/oz. The team argues that with all the prevailing political and economic uncertainty stalking the markets, the price of gold should be around 53% higher than it is today.
Why isn’t gold worth $2,000/oz?
Why isn’t the metal worth $2,000/oz? Macquarie has three theories.Firstly, the bank’s analysts take a page out of the S&P 500 CEO’s handbook and blame the strong dollar. Just as S&P 500 companies have been blaming the strong dollar for weak earnings for the past 24 months, Macquarie points out that if measured in other currencies the price of gold is much closer to its 2011 peak.
Investment Slows, Soft Summer ‘Risks $1300’ But Bond Defaults ‘Will Spike’
For example, in sterling terms, the price of gold is around £1,000/oz at the time of writing compared to the 2011 peak of £1180/oz. Meanwhile, gold priced in South African rand is trading more than 33% above its 2011 high of ZAR 15,000 at ZAR 19,157. That said, this rally has more to do with a weak rand and South Africa’s economic troubles. Since 2011 the rand has lost a tremendous amount of value, up from 7.1 to the dollar in 2011 to 14.6 today as devaluation that will have wiped out almost all of your gold gains.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
AirAsia’s net profit soars by 41%
Monday, 29 August 2016 | MYT 9:16 PM
AirAsia’s net profit soars by 41%
BY EUGENE MAHALINGAM
KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd’s net profit for its second quarter ended June 30, 2016 soared 40.8% year-on-year to RM342.12mil, boosted mainly by a 40.2% jump in aircraft operating lease income and a 24% reduction in average fuel price to US$59 (RM236) per barrel compared to a year earlier.
Revenue in the second quarter increased to RM1.62bil from RM1.32bil in the previous corresponding period, the low-cost carrier said in a statement on Monday.
Aircraft operating lease income, the second largest component of its revenue after passenger seat sales, grew to RM328.5mil. Passenger seat sales, meanwhile, were up 22.9% to RM991.4mil.
On the performance of its affiliates, AirAsia said 45%-owned Thai AirAsia posted revenue of 7.77 billion baht (RM908.82mil) in the second quarter of 2016, an increase of 13% from the same period last year while net operating profit increased by 69% year-on-year to 671.80 million baht (RM78.56mil).
“This led the associate to post a profit after tax of 767.56 million baht (RM89.78mil) (up 105% year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2016.”
Indonesia AirAsia, in which AirAsia holds a 49% stake, recorded revenue of 887.38 billion rupiah (RM270.6mil) in the second quarter of 2016, down 30% year-on-year which AirAsia said was in-line with the planned 37% decrease in capacity.
“Load factor recorded 10 percentage points improvement to 83%. Meanwhile, IAA registered a lower net operating loss of 84.60 billion rupiah (RM25.8mil) and a smaller loss after tax of 63.35 billion rupiah (RM19.31mil).
Separately, Philippines AirAsia, which is 49% owned by AirAsia Inc (AirAsia’s 40% owned associate), posted an 11% increase in revenue at 2.57 billion peso (RM223.82mil) and strong growth in the number of passenger carried.
“Load factor was at a high of 91%, up by 11 percentage points year-on-year. Cost per available seat kilometre (CASK) increased by 1% to 2.53 peso due to higher depreciation of property, plant and equipment and maintenance and overhaul cost.”
Meanwhile, 49%-owned AirAsia India recorded a 73% increase in revenue at 1.89 billion rupees (RM113.79mil) and carried higher number of passenger.
Commenting on the results, AirAsia chief executive officer Aireen Omar said in a statement that the airline saw good growth and earnings in the second quarter despite it historically being the company’s leanest.
“The highest growth seen among our ancillary products are sale of in-flight merchandise (up 400% year-on-year), AirAsia Courier (up 86%) and connecting fees for our ‘Fly-Thru’ service (up 65%).
“These led to the company recording an ancillary income per pax of RM48 this quarter (up 5% year-on-year). The group recorded a 32% year-on-year increase for Fly-Thru traffic, and Kuala Lumpur remains the largest transit hub with 83% AirAsia Group Fly-Thru traffic with the growth of 31% year-on-year.”
For the six-months period ended June 30, 2016, the low-cost carrier’s net profit more than tripled to RM1.22bil from RM392.36mil a year earlier, while revenue increased to RM3.32bil from RM2.62bil in the previous corresponding period.
Meanwhile, in a separate statement, AirAsia said its board of directors had approved the divestment of Asia Aviation Capital Ltd (AAC), the carrier’s wholly-owned aircraft leasing business.
AAC carries out the aircraft leasing business within the AirAsia group and with third party airlines
AirAsia has appointed RHB Investment Bank, Credit Suisse (Singapore) Ltd and BNP Paribas (acting through its Singapore branch) and BNP Paribas Capital (M) Sdn Bhd, as joint advisers for the potential divestment.
AirAsia’s net profit soars by 41%
BY EUGENE MAHALINGAM
KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd’s net profit for its second quarter ended June 30, 2016 soared 40.8% year-on-year to RM342.12mil, boosted mainly by a 40.2% jump in aircraft operating lease income and a 24% reduction in average fuel price to US$59 (RM236) per barrel compared to a year earlier.
Revenue in the second quarter increased to RM1.62bil from RM1.32bil in the previous corresponding period, the low-cost carrier said in a statement on Monday.
Aircraft operating lease income, the second largest component of its revenue after passenger seat sales, grew to RM328.5mil. Passenger seat sales, meanwhile, were up 22.9% to RM991.4mil.
On the performance of its affiliates, AirAsia said 45%-owned Thai AirAsia posted revenue of 7.77 billion baht (RM908.82mil) in the second quarter of 2016, an increase of 13% from the same period last year while net operating profit increased by 69% year-on-year to 671.80 million baht (RM78.56mil).
“This led the associate to post a profit after tax of 767.56 million baht (RM89.78mil) (up 105% year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2016.”
Indonesia AirAsia, in which AirAsia holds a 49% stake, recorded revenue of 887.38 billion rupiah (RM270.6mil) in the second quarter of 2016, down 30% year-on-year which AirAsia said was in-line with the planned 37% decrease in capacity.
“Load factor recorded 10 percentage points improvement to 83%. Meanwhile, IAA registered a lower net operating loss of 84.60 billion rupiah (RM25.8mil) and a smaller loss after tax of 63.35 billion rupiah (RM19.31mil).
Separately, Philippines AirAsia, which is 49% owned by AirAsia Inc (AirAsia’s 40% owned associate), posted an 11% increase in revenue at 2.57 billion peso (RM223.82mil) and strong growth in the number of passenger carried.
“Load factor was at a high of 91%, up by 11 percentage points year-on-year. Cost per available seat kilometre (CASK) increased by 1% to 2.53 peso due to higher depreciation of property, plant and equipment and maintenance and overhaul cost.”
Meanwhile, 49%-owned AirAsia India recorded a 73% increase in revenue at 1.89 billion rupees (RM113.79mil) and carried higher number of passenger.
Commenting on the results, AirAsia chief executive officer Aireen Omar said in a statement that the airline saw good growth and earnings in the second quarter despite it historically being the company’s leanest.
“The highest growth seen among our ancillary products are sale of in-flight merchandise (up 400% year-on-year), AirAsia Courier (up 86%) and connecting fees for our ‘Fly-Thru’ service (up 65%).
“These led to the company recording an ancillary income per pax of RM48 this quarter (up 5% year-on-year). The group recorded a 32% year-on-year increase for Fly-Thru traffic, and Kuala Lumpur remains the largest transit hub with 83% AirAsia Group Fly-Thru traffic with the growth of 31% year-on-year.”
For the six-months period ended June 30, 2016, the low-cost carrier’s net profit more than tripled to RM1.22bil from RM392.36mil a year earlier, while revenue increased to RM3.32bil from RM2.62bil in the previous corresponding period.
Meanwhile, in a separate statement, AirAsia said its board of directors had approved the divestment of Asia Aviation Capital Ltd (AAC), the carrier’s wholly-owned aircraft leasing business.
AAC carries out the aircraft leasing business within the AirAsia group and with third party airlines
AirAsia has appointed RHB Investment Bank, Credit Suisse (Singapore) Ltd and BNP Paribas (acting through its Singapore branch) and BNP Paribas Capital (M) Sdn Bhd, as joint advisers for the potential divestment.
Gold - What Happens Next?
Historically, gold bull markets last years and as you can see in the following chart from Casey Research we are still in the very early innings of this one.
As OtterWood Capital notes, Gold has been correcting recently and the question is how much further can it go?
During any bull market the long term moving averages act like support (I look at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages).
Gold has broken through the 50 day and could fall as far as the 200 day and still be in a perfectly normal bull market.
Corrections in long term bull markets happen repeatedly and should be bought.
As OtterWood Capital notes, Gold has been correcting recently and the question is how much further can it go?
During any bull market the long term moving averages act like support (I look at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages).
Gold has broken through the 50 day and could fall as far as the 200 day and still be in a perfectly normal bull market.
Corrections in long term bull markets happen repeatedly and should be bought.
Friday, August 19, 2016
Lord Rothschild: Why I've sold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of shares, and bought gold
Lord Rothschild, chair of the £3.04 billion Rothschild Investment Trust, has revealed that while he has significantly reduced his exposure to listed shares, he has responded to the prevailing economic uncertainty by buying gold.
Lord Rothschild and his family have an investment of well over £100 million in the Rothschild Investment Trust.
In his latest update to shareholders he commented that recent months have seen, ‘Central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 per cent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale. To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world’
The veteran investor continued, ‘The geopolitical situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks. In times like these, preservation of capital in real terms continues to be as important an objective as any in the management of your Company’s assets. In respect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quoted equities we have reduced our exposure from 55 per cent to 44 per cent.’
He added, ‘Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34 per cent, and currently stands at approximately 25 per cent. We increased gold and precious metals to 8 per cent by the end of June. We also increased our allocation to absolute return and credit, which delivered positive returns over the period, benefiting from a number of special situations. Within this category our new association with Eisler Capital had an encouraging start. We expect this part of the portfolio to be an increasingly important contributor to overall returns. Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields.’
The Rothschild Investment Trust has returned 58 per cent over the past three years, compared to 15 per cent for the average trust in the AIC Flexible Investment sector, making it the top performing trust.
 |
| Lord Rothschild has been selling shares |
Lord Rothschild and his family have an investment of well over £100 million in the Rothschild Investment Trust.
In his latest update to shareholders he commented that recent months have seen, ‘Central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 per cent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale. To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world’
The veteran investor continued, ‘The geopolitical situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks. In times like these, preservation of capital in real terms continues to be as important an objective as any in the management of your Company’s assets. In respect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quoted equities we have reduced our exposure from 55 per cent to 44 per cent.’
He added, ‘Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34 per cent, and currently stands at approximately 25 per cent. We increased gold and precious metals to 8 per cent by the end of June. We also increased our allocation to absolute return and credit, which delivered positive returns over the period, benefiting from a number of special situations. Within this category our new association with Eisler Capital had an encouraging start. We expect this part of the portfolio to be an increasingly important contributor to overall returns. Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields.’
The Rothschild Investment Trust has returned 58 per cent over the past three years, compared to 15 per cent for the average trust in the AIC Flexible Investment sector, making it the top performing trust.
Monday, August 8, 2016
AirAsia's resilient Fernandes eyes China to chart new expansion
CK Tan, Nikkei staff writer
AirAsia's group CEO Tony Fernandes, left, and Airbus President & CEO Fabrice Bregier signed the deal in the U.K.
KUALA LUMPUR -- Confidence has returned to AirAsia, the region's largest budget carrier by fleet size. Group Chief Executive Tony Fernandes has gotten more involved in running the airline group, charting a new course for expansion that may include a second listing, in Hong Kong, and a joint venture in China.
Nearly 20 months after one of its jetliners crashed into the Java sea, claiming 162 lives, Fernandes is aggressively charging toward a new phase of growth.
On July 12, AirAsia announced an order of 100 Airbus A321neo passenger aircraft. The deal, AirAsia's biggest since the accident, was announced during the biannual Farnborough Air Show, on the outskirts of London. The purchase lays bare a bold expansion plan for the no-frills flyer that in 2015 had 172 aircraft.
"With these aircraft," Fernades said during the signing ceremony, "we will hit 100 million passengers in the not-too-distant future."
The group, which has associate carriers in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, ferried 51 million travelers last year.
In Farnborough, Fernandes was at ease. His casual attire included his trademark red baseball cap and a pair of jeans. He peppered the post-signing ceremony press conference with jokes. Fabrice Bregier, Airbus' president and CEO, was also on hand.
The new aircraft have a total catalog price of $12.6 billion. Deliveries are to begin in 2019. The A321neos have better fuel efficiency and are more spacious than AirAsia's current A320s. Fernandes has big plans for them.
Fernandes, a former executive of record company Warner Music Group, began his airline in 2001 after being inspired by the success of Ireland's Ryanair, which covers much of Europe.
Fernandes' no-frills business model, from which he has never strayed, made air travel and faraway vacations affordable to many Southeast Asians.
Of course, he never saw the Java Sea tragedy coming.
Nearly 20 months after one of its jetliners crashed into the Java sea, claiming 162 lives, Fernandes is aggressively charging toward a new phase of growth.
"With these aircraft," Fernades said during the signing ceremony, "we will hit 100 million passengers in the not-too-distant future."
The group, which has associate carriers in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, ferried 51 million travelers last year.
In Farnborough, Fernandes was at ease. His casual attire included his trademark red baseball cap and a pair of jeans. He peppered the post-signing ceremony press conference with jokes. Fabrice Bregier, Airbus' president and CEO, was also on hand.
The new aircraft have a total catalog price of $12.6 billion. Deliveries are to begin in 2019. The A321neos have better fuel efficiency and are more spacious than AirAsia's current A320s. Fernandes has big plans for them.
Fernandes, a former executive of record company Warner Music Group, began his airline in 2001 after being inspired by the success of Ireland's Ryanair, which covers much of Europe.
Fernandes' no-frills business model, from which he has never strayed, made air travel and faraway vacations affordable to many Southeast Asians.
Of course, he never saw the Java Sea tragedy coming.
"My heart is filled with sadness for all the families involved in Flight 8501," Fernandes tweeted on Dec. 30, 2014, two days after the crash. "Words cannot express how sorry I am."
While AirAsia was dealing with the tragedy, it was also grappling with intense competition. Other budget carriers appeared in the skies, and fares fell. Amid all this, the group was accused of tweaking figures to boost earnings. As a result, the company's stock price last August caved in, falling to a low of 0.78 ringgit.
"Many people were writing off AirAsia, but we stuck to our guns," Fernandes recalled in Farnborough. "We have moved from a Southeast Asian airline to an Asian airline."
And AirAsia's share price has bounced back. On Tuesday, the shares closed at 2.95 ringgit, the highest they've been since two days before the crash. Cheaper fuel prices, which have buoyed the entire aviation industry, and a reshuffling of routes have contributed to the recovery.
The shares finished the week at 2.97 ringgit.
Market capitalization grew by about 7% to $2.03 billion since the crash, but still lacked behind regional peers like Shanghai-based Spring Airlines' $5.89 billion.
According to the Centre for Aviation, or Capa, an Australian consultancy, among the 20 regional airlines in Southeast Asia, 14 reported year-over-year improvements in the first quarter 2016, including all seven of the AirAsia-branded airlines. "The group is upbeat about its outlook, having recovered from a very challenging 2015," Capa added.
After the accident, Fernandes kept a low profile. Only now is he re-emerging. "Super second quarter performance for All Stars," he tweeted on Jul. 27, giving employees credit for AirAsia's strong passenger growth in the April-June period.
AirAsia said it carried 13.9 million travelers during the quarter, 12% more than a year earlier, despite the April-June period traditionally being "our slowest quarter," Fernandes said.
The bumper passenger numbers are thanks to higher demand in Malaysia and Thailand.
By way of comparison, AirAsia's closest rival in the region, Cebu Pacific Air, out of the Philippines, carried 5.2 million in the quarter.
Ten new routes were added during the quarter, mainly to second-tier Chinese cities, which now account for about 40% of revenue. AirAsia also increased the frequency it flies to many of its destinations.
The group is to announce its latest earnings by the end of the month.
In the 20 months since the accident, AirAsia has undergone operational and structural changes.
Fernandes gave up the carrier's ASEAN headquarters, in Jakarta, and put it back in Kuala Lumpur. The CEO had hoped the Jakarta base would lead to growth in Indonesia and the surrounding region.
In April, Fernandes received shareholder approval to raise his stake in AirAsia from 18.9% to 32.4% through Tune Live, a private company co-owned with Kamarudin Meranun, who co-founded AirAsia with Fernandes. The new share issuance will raise 1 billion ringgit ($247 million), which will be used to pare debt and as capital expenditures.
The AirAsia Group's net debt after offsetting cash balances amounted to 9.2 billion ringgit as of March.
"The placement signals the conviction of the major shareholders with regard to the prospects of AirAsia, given the sizable cash outlay and expanded share base of the group," said Marvin Khor of AllianceDBS Research. He added that the capital injection will reduce the carrier's gross debt-to-equity ratio from 2.8 to 2.2, raising its stock valuation.
After the Airbus order, Fernandes traveled to the U.S. and Europe to let institutional investors like Fidelity and The Boston Company Asset Management know that they might want to kick AirAsia's tires. Perhaps they'll find a bargain.
From Paris, Fernandes tweeted, "15 days but very rewarding for me and investors now know how undervalued we are."
To be a bargain, though, the shares have to look like they are ready to jump in price. In other words, AirAsia needs to continue growing.
That is not going to happen in Southeast Asia. Budget short-haul routes there have approached "maturity," Capa said in a report earlier this year. Low-cost carriers made up of 56% of the seats flown in the region, compared to 11% in Northeast Asia.
For AirAsia, then, growth means going north.
To drive growth in China and Japan, AirAsia in June set up North Asia, a Hong Kong-based subsidiary.
The president is Kathleen Tan, who was in the music industry before 2004, when she was named AirAsia's commercial director. She was promoted in 2013 to head of AirAsiaExpedia, a joint venture with a travel agency that AirAsia has since divested.
"North Asia -- with China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan -- is considered a high growth region" for no-frills flyers, Tan told the Nikkei Asian Review. Tan said demand for regional travel is high, partly due to the proximity of the countries and cultural similarities.
Tan's top priority is China. China's budget aviation market is growing rapidly. A raft of new players entered the skies after the government began opening new routes to promote economic growth in the western part of the country. Spring Airlines and West Air enjoy big pieces of China's low-coast market.
Fernandes said he will pursue more connections to second-tier Chinese cities.
"I can confirm China is a market we will love to be in," he said. "We are not interested in Beijing or Shanghai or those big metropolises. What AirAsia is good at is developing those secondary and tertiary routes, and those are what we are looking at."
Fernandes continued that AirAsia's forte is "providing connectivity where there isn't any connectivity and providing economic growth where there isn't any economic growth."
The strategy is to avoid directly competing with both full-service and budget carriers that have already established hubs in the country. AirAsia might do this by taking the joint venture route. He said AirAsia has been approached by Chinese companies in this regard.
Hong Kong's capital market could also beckon AirAsia.
"We need to attract a new form of capital and awareness of AirAsia," Fernandes said in Farnborough, adding that a Hong Kong listing could help AirAsia accomplish these goals. "It is something we are investigating," he said.
The carrier is also getting ready to start crisscrossing Japan again. It has received two A320s, and Tan said the group hopes to begin test flights this month.
Pending regulatory approval, it hopes to begin commercial flights from its base in Nagoya come January.
It will have to compete against established peers like Peach in Japan and Spring Airlines in China, and the relatively demanding customers in North Asia who may have yet to be fully accustomed to no-frills travels.
"While I joke and laugh but it is not easy," Fernandes said in response to a question on how he manages challenges in different markets.
"To me, business is the same whether it is in an airline or music: Maximize the top line, minimize the cost, do a lot of marketing and be different."
While AirAsia was dealing with the tragedy, it was also grappling with intense competition. Other budget carriers appeared in the skies, and fares fell. Amid all this, the group was accused of tweaking figures to boost earnings. As a result, the company's stock price last August caved in, falling to a low of 0.78 ringgit.
"Many people were writing off AirAsia, but we stuck to our guns," Fernandes recalled in Farnborough. "We have moved from a Southeast Asian airline to an Asian airline."
And AirAsia's share price has bounced back. On Tuesday, the shares closed at 2.95 ringgit, the highest they've been since two days before the crash. Cheaper fuel prices, which have buoyed the entire aviation industry, and a reshuffling of routes have contributed to the recovery.
The shares finished the week at 2.97 ringgit.
Market capitalization grew by about 7% to $2.03 billion since the crash, but still lacked behind regional peers like Shanghai-based Spring Airlines' $5.89 billion.
According to the Centre for Aviation, or Capa, an Australian consultancy, among the 20 regional airlines in Southeast Asia, 14 reported year-over-year improvements in the first quarter 2016, including all seven of the AirAsia-branded airlines. "The group is upbeat about its outlook, having recovered from a very challenging 2015," Capa added.
After the accident, Fernandes kept a low profile. Only now is he re-emerging. "Super second quarter performance for All Stars," he tweeted on Jul. 27, giving employees credit for AirAsia's strong passenger growth in the April-June period.
AirAsia said it carried 13.9 million travelers during the quarter, 12% more than a year earlier, despite the April-June period traditionally being "our slowest quarter," Fernandes said.
The bumper passenger numbers are thanks to higher demand in Malaysia and Thailand.
By way of comparison, AirAsia's closest rival in the region, Cebu Pacific Air, out of the Philippines, carried 5.2 million in the quarter.
Ten new routes were added during the quarter, mainly to second-tier Chinese cities, which now account for about 40% of revenue. AirAsia also increased the frequency it flies to many of its destinations.
The group is to announce its latest earnings by the end of the month.
In the 20 months since the accident, AirAsia has undergone operational and structural changes.
Fernandes gave up the carrier's ASEAN headquarters, in Jakarta, and put it back in Kuala Lumpur. The CEO had hoped the Jakarta base would lead to growth in Indonesia and the surrounding region.
In April, Fernandes received shareholder approval to raise his stake in AirAsia from 18.9% to 32.4% through Tune Live, a private company co-owned with Kamarudin Meranun, who co-founded AirAsia with Fernandes. The new share issuance will raise 1 billion ringgit ($247 million), which will be used to pare debt and as capital expenditures.
The AirAsia Group's net debt after offsetting cash balances amounted to 9.2 billion ringgit as of March.
"The placement signals the conviction of the major shareholders with regard to the prospects of AirAsia, given the sizable cash outlay and expanded share base of the group," said Marvin Khor of AllianceDBS Research. He added that the capital injection will reduce the carrier's gross debt-to-equity ratio from 2.8 to 2.2, raising its stock valuation.
After the Airbus order, Fernandes traveled to the U.S. and Europe to let institutional investors like Fidelity and The Boston Company Asset Management know that they might want to kick AirAsia's tires. Perhaps they'll find a bargain.
From Paris, Fernandes tweeted, "15 days but very rewarding for me and investors now know how undervalued we are."
To be a bargain, though, the shares have to look like they are ready to jump in price. In other words, AirAsia needs to continue growing.
That is not going to happen in Southeast Asia. Budget short-haul routes there have approached "maturity," Capa said in a report earlier this year. Low-cost carriers made up of 56% of the seats flown in the region, compared to 11% in Northeast Asia.
For AirAsia, then, growth means going north.
To drive growth in China and Japan, AirAsia in June set up North Asia, a Hong Kong-based subsidiary.
The president is Kathleen Tan, who was in the music industry before 2004, when she was named AirAsia's commercial director. She was promoted in 2013 to head of AirAsiaExpedia, a joint venture with a travel agency that AirAsia has since divested.
"North Asia -- with China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan -- is considered a high growth region" for no-frills flyers, Tan told the Nikkei Asian Review. Tan said demand for regional travel is high, partly due to the proximity of the countries and cultural similarities.
Tan's top priority is China. China's budget aviation market is growing rapidly. A raft of new players entered the skies after the government began opening new routes to promote economic growth in the western part of the country. Spring Airlines and West Air enjoy big pieces of China's low-coast market.
Fernandes said he will pursue more connections to second-tier Chinese cities.
"I can confirm China is a market we will love to be in," he said. "We are not interested in Beijing or Shanghai or those big metropolises. What AirAsia is good at is developing those secondary and tertiary routes, and those are what we are looking at."
Fernandes continued that AirAsia's forte is "providing connectivity where there isn't any connectivity and providing economic growth where there isn't any economic growth."
The strategy is to avoid directly competing with both full-service and budget carriers that have already established hubs in the country. AirAsia might do this by taking the joint venture route. He said AirAsia has been approached by Chinese companies in this regard.
Hong Kong's capital market could also beckon AirAsia.
"We need to attract a new form of capital and awareness of AirAsia," Fernandes said in Farnborough, adding that a Hong Kong listing could help AirAsia accomplish these goals. "It is something we are investigating," he said.
The carrier is also getting ready to start crisscrossing Japan again. It has received two A320s, and Tan said the group hopes to begin test flights this month.
Pending regulatory approval, it hopes to begin commercial flights from its base in Nagoya come January.
It will have to compete against established peers like Peach in Japan and Spring Airlines in China, and the relatively demanding customers in North Asia who may have yet to be fully accustomed to no-frills travels.
"While I joke and laugh but it is not easy," Fernandes said in response to a question on how he manages challenges in different markets.
"To me, business is the same whether it is in an airline or music: Maximize the top line, minimize the cost, do a lot of marketing and be different."
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
根本就沒有所謂的狙擊手 (From JIM)
80年代初，大劉把Evergo股份配售給基金。但由於愛美高產品滯銷引致股價下跌，大劉在股市買入股份，最後重新收購並掌握控制權。當初出手價大約為2港元，購回價約7毫，其獲利之豐厚，可想而知。其後他狙擊多次採用同一手法收購其他公司股份，更狙擊老牌地產商華人置業，華人置業控制中華娛樂，此兩家公司控制中環貴重物業的華人行及娛樂行。在兩個月內，由手無一股，至收購馮秉芬家族及李冠春家族手上的股份，持股四成，成為該公司的大股東，終使兩大家族出售其手上的股份予公司醫生韋利及市場人士，終結華人置業收購戰。其後，該公司成為大劉的狙擊艦，先後購入幾家空殼公司及大量的股份，並大量供股，大劉又曾狙擊擁有半島酒店的上海大酒店，但未能獲得董事席位及控制權，最後，大股東嘉道理家族購回劉鑾雄持有股份，並為劉鑾雄取得鉅額利潤。
他狙擊的目標都是市值龐大、股價波動較少、淨資產偏高的老牌上市公司。原因有兩點：一是大股東為了保留控股權，往往被迫回購股票，這時市場已經炒高，「狙擊手」必然獲利豐厚；二是，即便大股東放棄，「狙擊手」也可以在高位拋售，直接獲利。
這些年做投資下來，我深深感悟到，一切都沒有那麼神奇，其實在投資這個行業裡，根本就沒有所謂的狙擊手。你看看萬字醬油如何抵潮州佬就知，卒之搞到一垞屎。資本市場，是一個四層結構：老散，莊家，土豪，Family。土豪，就是人們經常聽到的什麼中國首富，某某大鱷。而土豪背後，各有各的老闆。
資本市場上，真真正正的狙擊手，靠狙擊企業發財的只有一個，就是今年80歲的華爾街
破產當飯吃的Donald Trump當然是他狙擊嘅最佳對象，2009年，Icahn及Donal Trump就為大西洋城、拉
不光是創業者，我們投資人也都是豬。而所謂的馬後炮也僅僅是大家事後總結出來的說辭，很少有人能洞見未來的趨勢，Camino咁好賣？當初點知？有早知冇乞衣，對於絕大多數人而言，你只需要跟著這個大趨勢走就行了，即係跟住我。
所以很多看似光榮偉大的事情，最開始做的原因或許是很簡單的，或許就是沒辦法死撐下來的結果，完全沒有那麼神機妙算。
我經常分享的一句話：我們需要意識到自己時刻都處在「北韓」的狀態。這句話的意思就是我們所處的環境並沒有想像中的完美，但一般廢柴意識不到。而在別人的眼中，或許我們就身處在「北韓」之中。一切事物都是在不斷發展與進化中的，即便處於「北韓」的狀態，也要明白事物基本面的重要性要遠高於扭曲的現狀。
我們經常會問創業者，你有沒有標竿的美國公司。因為常識告訴我們，如果你能在一個成熟的資本市場中找到一家成熟的公司作為Benchmark，那證明你的這個模式可能就是可行的。
有一句經典的西方諺語：Don’t Reinvent the Wheel。翻譯過來就是不要重新發明輪子，這句話在諮詢界非常有名，意思是現實中的全新的問題很少，很多問題的解決方案在其他地方都有現成的，所以不要重新設計解決方案，要善於利用別人的成果。這已經被很多人奉為了常識。
跳出來想一想，用戶到底想要的是什麼？班老細究竟愛看什麼？
Monday, August 1, 2016
RGB eyeing new business in Europe, South America
GEORGE TOWN: Electronic gaming machine and equipment maker RGB International Bhd is eyeing new businesses in Europe and South America, as the company seeks to expand its market reach.
RGB derives 95% of its sales from the Asia-Pacific region.
“We want to move away from our traditional markets to broaden the revenue base for the group,” said group managing director Datuk Chuah Kim Seah (pic).
The company, he said had secured orders for 700 units of gaming machines valued at RM80mil for the first half 2016.
About 500 units had been delivered to customers.
“The remaining 200 will be delivered in the third quarter. With the delivery of the 700 units, we are projecting double-digit percentage growth over last year’s net profit,” he told StarBiz.
The sales of gaming machines made up about 70% of the group’s revenue, while the remainder was contributed by the RGB’s gaming concession programme, which included the leasing of machines and equipment.
Chuah said the group was targeting to sell more machines than last year’s 1,300 units, which generated RM145mil in revenue.
For the second half, the group had 400 more gaming machines with an estimated market value RM45mil to deliver before the end of the year.
“The total undelivered units to date is 600, which includes the 200 yet to be delivered units secured in the first half.
“To surpass last year’s goal, we need to secure sales for 300 more units,” he said.
On RGB’s concession business, the leasing of the machines in the Asia region is expected to generate RM7.6mil per month for 2016, compared with RM7mil in 2015.
RGB leases its gaming machines to customers in Indochina, the Philippines, Timor Leste and Nepal.
“The Philippines is one of the largest markets for us,” he said.
Chuah said the group would be leasing machines soon under its concession programme to Kathmandu, which is a new market for the group.
“The machines are ready to be shipped out and should be operational by the fourth quarter,” he said.
RGB reported a 37% increase in net profit to RM5.9mil in the first quarter ended March 31, as revenue improved 45% to RM56mil.
Meanwhile, the group has settled the remaining RM27mil debts owed under the Commercial Papers Medium Term Notes (CPMTN) programme ahead of the scheduled final payment due in 2019.
“The group has more than RM60mil cash in hand, after settling the CPMTN debts,” Chuah said.
This cashpile will come in handy as the group explores opportunities in new markets.
RGB derives 95% of its sales from the Asia-Pacific region.
“We want to move away from our traditional markets to broaden the revenue base for the group,” said group managing director Datuk Chuah Kim Seah (pic).
The company, he said had secured orders for 700 units of gaming machines valued at RM80mil for the first half 2016.
About 500 units had been delivered to customers.
“The remaining 200 will be delivered in the third quarter. With the delivery of the 700 units, we are projecting double-digit percentage growth over last year’s net profit,” he told StarBiz.
The sales of gaming machines made up about 70% of the group’s revenue, while the remainder was contributed by the RGB’s gaming concession programme, which included the leasing of machines and equipment.
Chuah said the group was targeting to sell more machines than last year’s 1,300 units, which generated RM145mil in revenue.
For the second half, the group had 400 more gaming machines with an estimated market value RM45mil to deliver before the end of the year.
“The total undelivered units to date is 600, which includes the 200 yet to be delivered units secured in the first half.
“To surpass last year’s goal, we need to secure sales for 300 more units,” he said.
On RGB’s concession business, the leasing of the machines in the Asia region is expected to generate RM7.6mil per month for 2016, compared with RM7mil in 2015.
RGB leases its gaming machines to customers in Indochina, the Philippines, Timor Leste and Nepal.
“The Philippines is one of the largest markets for us,” he said.
Chuah said the group would be leasing machines soon under its concession programme to Kathmandu, which is a new market for the group.
“The machines are ready to be shipped out and should be operational by the fourth quarter,” he said.
RGB reported a 37% increase in net profit to RM5.9mil in the first quarter ended March 31, as revenue improved 45% to RM56mil.
Meanwhile, the group has settled the remaining RM27mil debts owed under the Commercial Papers Medium Term Notes (CPMTN) programme ahead of the scheduled final payment due in 2019.
“The group has more than RM60mil cash in hand, after settling the CPMTN debts,” Chuah said.
This cashpile will come in handy as the group explores opportunities in new markets.
获20亿Dyson合约普遍看好‧星光资源依赖单一大客户
获20亿Dyson合约普遍看好‧星光资源依赖单一大客户
（吉隆坡18日讯）星光资源（SKPRES，7155，主板工业产品组）获英国Dyson颁发电子消费产品制造合约，总值高达20亿令吉，合约期限为期4年，每年价值5亿令吉，主要替代之前取消的合约。
（吉隆坡18日讯）星光资源（SKPRES，7155，主板工业产品组）获英国Dyson颁发电子消费产品制造合约，总值高达20亿令吉，合约期限为期4年，每年价值5亿令吉，主要替代之前取消的合约。
由于大马雇用外劳政策改变，去年5月获Dyson公司颁发每年4亿令吉吸尘机合约将不再继续；另外，每年生产价值6亿令吉的无线吸尘机合约（为期5年）则保持不变。
分析
星光资源虽获新合约，但也失去一些合约，惟新合约的价值让分析员普遍看好，唯隐忧是过于依赖单一大客户。
肯纳格研究相当看好上述合约，星光资源拥有Dyson旗下吹风机（Supersonic）的独家制造商，Dyson未来可能会颁发更多合约予星光资源，因Dyson打算继续进行扩展。
安联星展研究认为过于依赖单一客户是隐忧，星光资源2016财政年，55%的营业额由Dyson贡献，并预期2017财政年比例将走高至72%。若Dyson终止合约，届时星光资源净利将受到影响。有鉴于此，星光资源期望来自非Dyson贡献的营业额可取得成长，并设下8%成长的目标。
安联星展补充，星光资源在柔佛士乃的工厂空间使用率为25%，余下75%为空置地段，相信星光资源将会提升使用率，以攫取更多合约。
净现金公司
尽管星光资源过去不断进行扩展计划，但该公司仍保持净现金地位，安联星展认为，2017至2019财政年，星光资源仍可以保持净现金地位。
达证券认为，星光资源虽然可从上述合约受惠，但外劳冻结，可能会导致盈利受损，因此下调2017至2019财政年的净利预测。
大众研究则表示，一旦所有产品生产线全面使用，星光资源未来净利仍有成长空间，本益比介于10至12倍，加上强劲资产负债表，是该公司值得看好的优势。
Holistic View of SKP Resources with Fundamental Analysis & iVolume Spread Analysis (iVSAChart)
Background and Core Business
SKP Resources Bhd was listed on Bursa Malaysia in 2000 and is categorised under the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry. It belongs to the Industrial Product, FBM Small Cap and FBM Emas Indices. SKP Resources Bhd is an integrated plastic manufacturer, with 3 wholly owned subsidiaries: SKP (Syarikat Sin Kwang Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd), GHI (Goodhart Industries Sdn Bhd) and GHL (Goodhart Land Sdn Bhd). They also own 63% of another subsidiary known as GHT (Goodhart Technology Sdn Bhd). They are based in Batu Pahat, Johor.
Essentially, all the subsidiaries work synergistically from design and fabrication of high precision plastic molds to the manufacturing of plastic parts and components, sub-assembly and other secondary processes. Each subsidiary specialises in the manufacturing of distinct products for different clients. These parts are finally used as casings of media players, printers/scanners, video game console peripherals and also TV cabinets.
SKP Resources proudly lists their clients (both direct and indirect) from MNCs such as Apple, Fujitsu, Sharp, Pioneer, Dyson, HP, Flextronics, Microsoft and Sony.
The FY ended on 31st March 2016 and they are in their 1st quarter for FY 2017. The next quarterly results should be due sometime in August 2016. Market capitalisation stands at around RM1.4 billion.
Financial Brief and Ratios (Historical)
SKP Resources had seen stellar growth in their revenue for the past 5 years, with the highest turnover recorded in FY 2016. This translated into a profit of RM 82 million for its shareholders last year, while profit margin increased only slightly from 6.8% to 7.8% y-o-y. This is due to the increase in cost of revenue, reported at a figure of RM 902 million.
Although the PE ratio is not low, it has reduced over the years from the 40s to less than 20 today. ROE is relatively on the low end. No dividends were declared for FY2016. It is worth mentioning that the company had managed to reduce their current liabilities by nearly half from RM 410 million to RM 200 million during FY 2016.
In terms of cash flow, it has recorded its highest operating cash flow in 2015 at around RM 221 million, at the same time using up to RM 149 million for investing activities in the same year. In line with the increase in cost of revenue during FY2016, do take cautionary note that operating cash flow has turned negative to -RM 37 million from RM 221 million just a year ago. Similarly, Free Cash Flow has turned negative to -RM 70 million for FY 2016.
iVolume Spread Analysis (iVSA) & comments based on iVSAChart software – SKP Resources
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This article only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock. If you decide to buy or sell any stock, you are responsible for your own decision and associated risks.
SKP Resources Bhd was listed on Bursa Malaysia in 2000 and is categorised under the Miscellaneous Manufacturing industry. It belongs to the Industrial Product, FBM Small Cap and FBM Emas Indices. SKP Resources Bhd is an integrated plastic manufacturer, with 3 wholly owned subsidiaries: SKP (Syarikat Sin Kwang Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd), GHI (Goodhart Industries Sdn Bhd) and GHL (Goodhart Land Sdn Bhd). They also own 63% of another subsidiary known as GHT (Goodhart Technology Sdn Bhd). They are based in Batu Pahat, Johor.
Essentially, all the subsidiaries work synergistically from design and fabrication of high precision plastic molds to the manufacturing of plastic parts and components, sub-assembly and other secondary processes. Each subsidiary specialises in the manufacturing of distinct products for different clients. These parts are finally used as casings of media players, printers/scanners, video game console peripherals and also TV cabinets.
SKP Resources proudly lists their clients (both direct and indirect) from MNCs such as Apple, Fujitsu, Sharp, Pioneer, Dyson, HP, Flextronics, Microsoft and Sony.
The FY ended on 31st March 2016 and they are in their 1st quarter for FY 2017. The next quarterly results should be due sometime in August 2016. Market capitalisation stands at around RM1.4 billion.
Financial Brief and Ratios (Historical)
SKP Resources (7155.KL)
|
FY 2016
|
| Revenue (RM’000) |
1,051,027
|
| Net Earnings (RM’000) |
82,145
|
| Net Profit Margin (%) |
7.82
|
| EPS (RM) |
0.070
|
| PE Ratio (PER) |
17.52
|
| Dividend Yield (%) |
1.58
|
| ROE (%) |
23.40
|
| Cash Ratio |
0.216
|
| Current Ratio |
1.834
|
| Total Debt to Equity Ratio |
0.158
|
SKP Resources had seen stellar growth in their revenue for the past 5 years, with the highest turnover recorded in FY 2016. This translated into a profit of RM 82 million for its shareholders last year, while profit margin increased only slightly from 6.8% to 7.8% y-o-y. This is due to the increase in cost of revenue, reported at a figure of RM 902 million.
Although the PE ratio is not low, it has reduced over the years from the 40s to less than 20 today. ROE is relatively on the low end. No dividends were declared for FY2016. It is worth mentioning that the company had managed to reduce their current liabilities by nearly half from RM 410 million to RM 200 million during FY 2016.
In terms of cash flow, it has recorded its highest operating cash flow in 2015 at around RM 221 million, at the same time using up to RM 149 million for investing activities in the same year. In line with the increase in cost of revenue during FY2016, do take cautionary note that operating cash flow has turned negative to -RM 37 million from RM 221 million just a year ago. Similarly, Free Cash Flow has turned negative to -RM 70 million for FY 2016.
iVolume Spread Analysis (iVSA) & comments based on iVSAChart software – SKP Resources
· Above is SKP Resources weekly chart showing price & volume action for the last 6 months
· Prices were ranging sideways with some Signs of Strength (green arrows) seen around pivot lows
· Although the bulls had their chance, there were unsuccessful attempts to break beyond RM 1.40 level
· Instead its’ prices drifted lower after the Sign of Weakness (red arrow) appeared in May 2016 culminating in breaking of support level around RM 1.23 in June 2016
· Strong hands emerged when prices hit around the level RM 1.14 to RM 1.12 and the down move has temporarily ceased
· For a sustainable new uptrend, not only do we need to see prices reacting favorably to the Signs of Strength (green arrow) that have appeared in July 2016 but also bullish attempts to rally and break above the RM 1.40 level
Interested to learn more?
- Join our Investment & Market Outlook Conference on 28th Aug 2016. Find out more via: https://www.ivsachart.com/investconference2016.php
- Website: https://www.ivsachart.com/events.php
- Email: sales@ivsachart.com
- WhatsApp: +6011 2125 8389/ +6018 286 9809
- Follow & Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/priceandvolumeinklse/
This article only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock. If you decide to buy or sell any stock, you are responsible for your own decision and associated risks.
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