My Watchlist: Annual 25 % Return Fund -22 Nov 2013

Stock Name	Ref Date	Ref Price	Price Diff	Last	Range	Open	Change	Volume	Action
SKPRES	28/08/2013	0.32	+0.01	0.33	0.325 - 0.34	0.34	-0.015	4,502,300
INARI-WA	28/08/2013	0.395	+0.625	1.02	0.96 - 1.03	0.97	+0.055	9,411,600
PAVREIT	28/08/2013	1.23	+0.10	1.33	1.33 - 1.35	1.34	-0.02	60,800
CMMT	28/08/2013	1.45	+0.04	1.49	1.49 - 1.50	1.50	-0.01	130,400
PJDEV	28/08/2013	0.915	+0.365	1.28	1.27 - 1.33	1.30	+0.05	1,786,400
GENM	28/08/2013	4.07	+0.27	4.34	4.30 - 4.38	4.30	+0.02	3,785,200
REDTONE-WA	20/09/2013	0.445	-0.01	0.435	0.43 - 0.44	0.435	0.00	579,900
OSKVI	20/09/2013	0.385	+0.155	0.54	0.515 - 0.54	0.52	+0.02	116,100
OSKVI-WA	20/09/2013	0.08	+0.10	0.18	0.16 - 0.18	0.16	+0.02	908,100
SAM	25/09/2013	2.41	+0.18	2.59	2.59 - 2.59	2.59	0.00	10,000
FACBIND	25/09/2013	1.28	-0.03	1.25	1.24 - 1.25	1.24	+0.01	22,500
MATRIX	25/09/2013	2.93	+0.29	3.22	3.20 - 3.23	3.22	+0.01	690,900
YTL	16/10/2013	1.53	+0.10	1.63	1.62 - 1.65	1.63	+0.01	7,516,800
KEURO	21/10/2013	1.23	-0.04	1.19	1.16 - 1.19	1.18	0.00	116,600
CBIP	08/11/2013	2.94	+0.14	3.08	3.04 - 3.10	3.10	-0.03	591,300

 

马来西亚的房价未来还会上涨？？

马来西亚房价这几年飆涨异常凌厉，不少地区如吉隆坡，巴生谷和檳城一带，这几年房价都上涨差不多一倍了！人民薪资追不上屋价涨幅，购买房屋成了遥不可及的梦想。相关领域的人士举出不同的理由，认为马来西亚的房价未来还会上涨，现在不买，以后房价会更贵，未来更加买不起。

到底是什么原因造成马来西亚房价上涨？

你所知的理由和「专家」告诉你的理由，是否大体如以下这14点？

1.建筑成本上涨。

2.经济增长迅速，未来发展潜能大，前景看好。

3.城市化发展，人口增加，住屋需求提高。

4.房价不会有泡沫，因为地点有別，有些地方贵，有些地方便宜，有些地方是黄金地段，价格很难下跌。

5.土地稀缺，不会增加，房屋需求却不断增加。

6.需求旺盛，所以房屋是有实际需求支持的。

7.房价长期来看都是上涨的。

8.买房可投资，也可保值，风险也非常低。

9.银行利率低，资金流动充足。

10.不会有泡沫，这一次不一样，我们国家的情况和外国比起来也不一样。

11.我国房价在国际上看並不贵。

12.人民平均收入对比房价是適当的。

13.房地產市场流动性高，买卖中介管道多，灵活性强。

14.政府政策扶持。

如果你认为房价会继续上涨的理由基本包含类似以上的14点，这些理由全部都是错误的，不过是为了支持房价上涨有理所找的藉口。

如果你看过世界各国出现房產泡沫崩溃前，所持有房价上涨有理的藉口，哪一个不是和这14点一样？

賈伯斯的臨終遺言

作為一個世界500強公司的總裁，我曾經叱吒商界，無往不勝，在別人眼裡，我的人生當然是成功的典範。但是除了工作，我的樂趣並不多，到後來，財富於我已經變成一種習慣的事實，正如我肥胖的身體——都是多餘的東西組成。

 

此刻，在病床上，我頻繁地回憶起我自己的一生，發現曾經讓我感到無限得意的所有社會名譽和財富，在即將到來的死亡面前已全部變得暗淡無光，毫無意義了。

 

我也在深夜裡多次反問自己，如果我生前的一切被死亡重新估價後，已經失去了價值，那麼我現在最想要的是什麼，即我一生的金錢和名譽都沒能給我的是什麼？有沒有？

 

黑暗中，我看著那些金屬檢測儀器發出的幽綠的光和吱吱的聲響，似乎感到死神溫熱的呼吸正向我靠攏。

 

現在我明白了，人的一生只要有夠用的財富，就該去追求其他與財富無關的，應該是更重要的東西，也許是感情，也許是藝術，也許只是一個兒時的夢想。

 

無休止的追求財富只會讓人變得貪婪和無趣，變成一個變態的怪物——正如我一生的寫照。

 

上帝造人時，給我們以豐富的感官，是為了讓我們去感受他預設在所有人心底的愛，而不是財富帶來的虛幻。

 

我生前贏得的所有財富我都無法帶走，能帶走的只有記憶中沉澱下來的純真的感動以及和物質無關的愛和情感，它們無法否認也不會自己消失，它們才是人生真正的財富。

Keuro-By Serious Investing

Will IJM continue to shortchange Kumpulan Europlus' shareholders?

I can tell you I have been monitoring and spending too much time on this. Who is Kumpulan Euro ("Keuro") in the first place - not too long ago (that is more than 10 years), it was Larut, and of course the controlling shareholder is whom many depressed house buyers in Klang Valley would know - Tan Sri Chan Ah Chye. Where many housing projects were (and are) doing well, Keuro has failed because in many instances it failed to deliver.

(Note that I am not writing this on behalf of Chan Ah Chye but for the minority shareholders. The shortchanging, I feel is not only onto the largest shareholder but all the other minority shareholders.)

Keuro does not have the cashflow and namesake (Keuro and Talam's brand are worthless and they have been hiding under IJM brand) to deliver. What Keuro has not failed though is the assets and its accumulation during the 1990s and 2000s.

In the balance sheet of Keuro, it has three large assets:

1. 30% of Talam (or Trinity) - you can check the assets, despite it being a penny stock (at RM0.055), its Net Asset (before revision) is easily worth RM0.14 per share. I would not know how much if it is revalued as it has not been revalued for a long time;
2. then the Rimbayu (or formerly Canal City Construction Sdn Bhd). This is a large piece of 1870 acres of leasehold land in south Klang Valley which it effectively owns 35% (the other 35% being IJM Land). The first phase launch of some 500 units of landed houses (priced between RM550k to RM600k) was very well received with many more in the waiting list (and there is no DIBS or 5/95 plan in the project). Upon completion, this area is supposed to have 10,000 households with RM11 billion in Gross Development Value. To make the shareholders of Keuro excited, an adjacent land of 1,200 acres (which is also called Canal City) was sold to Tropicana Group by Selangor state government for RM1.3 billion recently, hence effectively valuing the land held by Rimbayu at some RM2 billion. How much Keuro had to pay for it back in 2004? Nothing. So you probably would not see anything in the balance sheet except for some accumulation of expenses for the project delivery. And since it is a JV with IJM, it is equity accounting the project (not consolidation, hence you are not seeing the effect from its project sales). At my soft guess, the land would have worth easily more than RM700 million to Keuro. Can you imagine, with the land being free, how much can the project bring in terms of profitability to the project owner? And best of all, in the balance sheet it shows nothing until revenue recognition;
3. now of course the most prized (with much fanfare) is the West Coast Expressway (WCE). Keuro has 80% of WCE and it has been awarded a 50 years concession by the government. If we are not so sure of what it is, WCE is almost parallel to the North-South Highway owned by PLUS linking Banting to Taiping (tolled road around 233 km). Hence, you can see it is the heavier traffic part of the linkage from north to south. How much would the concession be worth upon completion, that's the question? Since, there are very little details about the project, except for it being given a soft loan of RM2.24 billion of 4% interest by the government, its value may not be known to a lay shareholder like you and I. Much of the details are unknown, but what is announced is that since it is a public-private initiative, upon it reaching certain revenue threshold, 70% of the revenue will be used to pay off the government loan, until the loan is fully paid off. Upon that, the revenue sharing will be 30%:70% between WCE and government. On the valuation, just a note - PLUS (of which 84% of the revenue derived from North-South Highway) was sold to UEM and EPF for RM23 billion (tagged along with RM11 billion debt) in 2011 - hence effectively valuing PLUS at RM34 billion at enterprise value at that point of time. How much would you think a 233km concession along North-South be worth upon completion then? It is noteworthy that PLUS' North-South Highway is 840 km, but it also has portion which has lower traffic, i.e. the Penang - Bukit Kayu Hitam stretch.

With that 3 assets, how much would you think Keuro is worth? To me that is a tough question as one of its larger shareholder, IJM which also owns 23.8% of Keuro, has purchased assets of Keuro at amazingly low valuation. One should note though the partnership with IJM also comes with the good part as well, i.e. the delivery partner and the confidence that is associated with Keuro and Talam in the ability to complete projects. IJM has 20% of WCE in itself and through its 22% stake in Keuro, it is IJM's interest to keep the concession going as well as kickstarting Rimbayu and other land assets held through Talam. Why? For IJM, it is killing 2 birds with one stone, as besides owning the shares at low price, through Keuro, it will have continuous projects from Talam and Keuro's rich assets where the WCE project alone is going to be worth RM5.5 billion in terms of project value. Surely, IJM being the project owner and construction company would get a big chunk.

To kick start the WCE concession though, Keuro needs RM200 million as highlighted by the board yesterday. That is something which Keuro does not have, and has always been a problem for the company. If I am IJM, I would of course continue to retain that, as a hungry and weak partner will always needed me to catch and feed it with fish, rather than it catching the fish itself.

The value for Keuro is not in its financials. It is highly geared with little revenue to show.

Now, how did IJM went into Keuro in the first place? Back in 2007, when Keuro needed help, IJM took a 25% stake at RM0.28 per share - now that share is worth RM1.28 or 23.85% of Keuro's RM666 million market cap (and the value could probably be much more once the projects kickstart, in which case some like the Rimbayu project had). During the period until now, IJM has become a delivery partner to many of Keuro and Talam's projects and in the process got to buy an additional 10% of the Canal City Construction (from Keuro) at an amazingly low price of RM2 million in 2008 and 20% of WCE from a partner of Keuro (actually partly held through Chan Ah Chye's brother) at RM6.75 million. The RM2 million for 10% of Canal City was basically valuing the land at RM20 million. What is it worth now?

Hence, while Keuro benefited out of this (sort of partly rescued), the main beneficiary was IJM. Keuro remained to have poor liquidity. As said earlier, the WCE project will need RM200 million of capital injection by September with 3 months extension option. It needed to raise cash fast and as said, one of the options is to sell part of the Rimbayu project. I can only guess that the buyer is IJM as by doing that, it would be able to consolidate the financials from the Rimbayu project, and what more to do it off a hungry and weak partner at a low price? (Note that under IFRS10, IJM should be able to consolidate the Rimbayu project as at now as it seems to have full control over the project) 

If I am a shareholder, I would prefer the equity fund raising option for Keuro but I just could not understand why it took them so long to raise the needed RM200 million after 7 months since the concession was signed in January 2013. Probably IJM was the hyena, that was just waiting to have more flesh out of them...perhaps? Why not let it be hungry as long as it is still alive! I am just wondering, after all these while why the need to sell the assets of Rimbayu as one of the options...

I am sure given the proper explanation and the partners that are involved, raising the RM200 million equity would not be that difficult, but the work (as I see it) is not planned properly. 

In previous times, any fund raising would just dilute the shareholders (which is the case why the fund raising has been dragged, as they may not want it or may not have the funds for it), but new shareholders with more firepower would allow rights issue to be done and Keuro (and Talam for that matter) needs to do rights issue rather than private placements. Hard land assets is worthless without the funds to deliver - that's the POINT. UNLESS OF COURSE YOU SELL THE ASSETS.

The latest news however, a probable stronger shareholder in town (MWE) which has some RM350 million cash in its coffer would probably have a bigger voice once the shares from Chan Ah Chye changed hands and perhaps IJM may not just bully the very weak Keuro anymore, as we have witnessed in the past. It will then has a stronger shareholder to content with, and that's hopefully better for the minorities. What is more important though is making sure of the money needed for the WCE project is resolved for now, and Keuro is running out of time to get it done.

To be fair to IJM, it has forwarded some RM200 million interest-bearing loan for kickstarting the Rimbayu project. Without that, it can't even commence.

Disclaimer: These are entirely my opinion and observation and it may not be fully accurate.

 

优乐家2.26%场外易手

优乐家集团（KEURO，3565，主板建筑股）周五出现一批1300万股，或占缴足资本2.26%的股权，在场外以每股1.36令吉的价位交易。

该场外交易的交易值为1768万令吉，与周五1.20令吉的闭市价相比，溢价16仙。

今日闭市时，优乐家集团以1.20令吉平盘收市，成交量达15万5900股，全日最高价为每股1.21令吉。

优乐家集团在建议以5250万令吉脱售其在Radiant Pillar私人有限公司的10%股权给IJM置地（IJMLAND，5215，主板产业股）后，便一直得到关注。

Radiant Pillar是一家负责西海岸大道（WCE）项目联营公司。

该脱售收益预计为5150万令吉，是该公司注入资金进80%持有权的西海岸大道私人有限公司的部分计划之一，主要是为了符合WCE项目60年期特许权协议的财务要求

KEURO引起我的注意

为何研究这家公司
缘起：mwe大笔出手买入keuro 22%的股份，成了最大股东（持股27%）
可是keuro目前依然保持亏损的业绩
难道mwe的大股东洞察了一些不为人知的玄机

keuro第二大股东为ijm corp（持股22%）
不知大家是否还记得faber因为ijmcorp注入两家子公司（维修大道）导致其股价大起

keuro目前市值：7亿
银行贷款：1.3亿
retained loss：4.3亿
目前业绩属于亏损
单看这3点，更不可能会买入keuro
柳暗花明又一春
故事还未结束

公司三大资产
1）西海岸大道
2）持有30%trinity
3）shah alam rimbayu城镇计划

未来看点：
1）子公司（持有80%）获得建设高达233公里的西海岸大道
这项计划高达60亿（五年内建好）
keuro有望获得财政部批准提供22.4亿贷款（利率：4%）
keuro持有西海岸大道公司的80%股权，而ijmcorp持有另外的20%。
建好后，将获得50年（70%）的大道收费

2）和ijm land 联营 （50%）开发shah alam rimbayu 城镇高达1878英亩 土地
GDV：110亿
为期：15年

这两项计划即将为keuro未来营业贡献如下：
1）高速公路的project：48亿（80%of 60亿）
2）rimbayu城镇发展：55亿（50%of 110亿）

*潜在风险
公司目前急需筹资大约2亿，以符合建设西海岸大道
早期公司已经private placement
目前计划附加股以及推出债卷筹资（eps被dilute）

买入keuro，需要耐心，只要这两项计划开始动土
keuro业绩将由亏变盈
到时候股价必然有一番作为

KEURO-下一个迷你PLUS?现金牛？

MULTIPLE PROPOSALS KUMPULAN EUROPLUS BERHAD (“KEB” OR “COMPANY”) (I)        PROPOSED DISPOSAL; (II)        PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE WITH WARRANTS; (III)        PROPOSED IASC; AND (IV)        PROPOSED AMENDMENTS. (TO BE COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS “PROPOSALS”)

KUMPULAN EUROPLUS BERHAD

Type	Announcement
Subject	MULTIPLE PROPOSALS
Description	KUMPULAN EUROPLUS BERHAD (“KEB” OR “COMPANY”) (I)        PROPOSED DISPOSAL; (II)        PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE WITH WARRANTS; (III)        PROPOSED IASC; AND (IV)        PROPOSED AMENDMENTS. (TO BE COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS “PROPOSALS”)
We refer to the announcements dated 12 August 2013 and 6 September 2013 in relation to the Proposals. Unless otherwise stated, the terms used herein shall have the same meaning as defined in the said announcements in relation to the Proposals. On behalf of the Board, RHB Investment Bank wishes to announce that KEB had on 11 October 2013, submitted an application to Bursa Securities in respect of the following:- (i)    admission of the Warrants to the Official List of Bursa Securities; and (ii)    listing of and quotation for:-        (a)    429,743,823 Rights Shares together with 214,871,911 Warrants to be issued pursuant to the Proposed Rights Issue with Warrants;        (b)    214,871,911 KEB Shares to be issued pursuant to the exercise of the Warrants, on the Main Market of Bursa Securities.            This announcement is dated 11 October 2013.

---

Announcement Info

Company Name	KUMPULAN EUROPLUS BERHAD
Stock Name	KEURO
Date Announced	11 Oct 2013
Category	General Announcement
Reference No	MI-131011-61824

云顶凭单配售比率诱人

在美国，股市一波又一波的上升，似是考验投资者的胆量，这和本地股市很是相似。

马股市上周一些股票恢复动力，让我们逮著脱售的机会。比如合成统一从2.62令吉探低至2.36令吉，终于回稳。其凭单也站上85仙，折价3仙（母股收2.53令吉），迹象看来凭单似乎要回到溢价的形势。

我们觉得把2万5000单位母股全部卖掉，不过买回同样数量的凭单（85仙），保留将来转换的机会。

另一方面，CLIQ能源终于反弹，不晓得是否好事近了？

由于我们需要用到一笔不小的资金，所以趁机套利，卖掉3万CLIQ能源-WA（每股42仙）。

套现的钱，我们一部份拿来认购谢氏兄弟机构（SBCCORP）14000单位附加股，每股1令吉，加上之后的红股，我们将拥有2万1000股。此外，我们也不拖延，就地买了2000股云顶（GENTING），每股10.32令吉。

为什么是云顶？答案呼之欲出。说真的，云顶的价钱是高档的那种。我们习惯投资低价股，一买就是1万8000股的，如今1000股就要价1万令吉以上，是蛮不习惯的。

不过，我们是看中了它的50仙特别股息，以及凭单计划而购买。由于股息需扣税25%，因此每股实得37.5仙而已。

所幸跟着来的凭单，是以1.50令吉定价，每4股云顶配售1股凭单，正是我们实际上收到的净股息（37.5仙X4=1.50令吉）。

股息除权20日生效

云顶集团得到股东的同意之后，快速上书当局，终于解除一切障碍。其股息除权日落在11月20日，而子公司云顶种植（GENP）的44仙特别股息除权日是11月19日。

这里稍微解释一下两者的不同（见表）。

我们比较喜欢云顶的建议，看来其凭单配售比率也较吸引人。

不过，如果棕油价格开始反弹的话，那么云顶种植的魅力也不会逊色。而且，一些人基于宗教或道德的观念，对云顶的业务涉及赌博相当有所保留，所以他们应该会选择后者。

至于组合方面，投资回酬已有43%；由于我们大手笔脱售合成统一和CLIQ能源，即使认购SBCCORP和云顶，手头上的现金还是有约2万4000令吉，和我们两个月来一直欠缺现金流的情形完全不同。也许我们会在周内再加持一些云顶。

免责声明

除了股票基本面，本文内容纯属虚构，所有提及股项纯属学术上或经验上的建议，读者若有兴趣投资，应该自行深入研究或询问股票经纪才决定，盈亏自负。

我们鼓励通过正确的投资方式创造财富，文中的建议，都有一个完整的买卖纪录。

草根牛马

云顶大马NewYork

隨著美国纽约通过修宪，允许设立多达7个拉斯维加式的大型赌场，分析员认为，云顶大马（GENM，4715，主板贸服股）未必会竞標纽约第一阶段的赌场兴建计划。不过，整体而言，当地政府进一步开放博彩业，长远而言，对打算在当地长远发展的云顶大马仍是一项喜讯。

根据了解，修宪之后，第一阶段將允许四个新赌场设在纽约州北部，接下来的三个赌场却必须等待7年之后才能在纽约市开业。

目前，纽约已有9家赛马娱乐场所（其中一个是云顶大马的纽约名胜世界（RWNYC））和五家部落赌场。

虽然，分析员普遍相信，云顶大马不大可能会竞投纽约州北部的赌场牌照，因为地理位置偏远。不过，云顶大马相信仍將从这项最新发展中受惠。

转型商业赌场受阻

马银行金英投行分析员指出，纽约市在7年之后才能够开设商业赌场的新规定，使到云顶大马把纽约名胜世界转为商业赌场的计划受阻，因此，云顶大马將会继续依靠大马赌场来推动其业务发展。

分析员也指出，第一阶段的4家赌场，与纽约名胜世界有一段距离，因此，不至於带来太大的竞爭。

同时，安联研究分析员指出，这条例也將使到云顶大马的纽约名胜世界在未来7年，继续成为皇后区唯一的赛马娱乐场所。

联昌国际分析员也认同这一点，並补充说，纽约名胜世界可以借这段时间，从赛马和角子机娱乐场所升级成为更全面的赌场。

马银行金英投行分析员指出，纽约名胜世界佔云顶大马未计算利息、税项、折旧及摊销之盈利仅10％的贡献，因此，整体的影响並不显著。

联昌国际分析员仍看好云顶大马，主要是因为该集团將会进一步公佈，其30亿令吉的资本开支计划。因此，联昌国际分析员维持该股「超越大市」投资评级和5.70令吉的目標价。

另外，虽然纽约方面的发展受挫，但是云顶大马还有其他大马发展计划。因此，马银行金英投行分析员依然维持该股「买进」投资评级和4.85令吉的目標价和，安联研究分析员也维持「中和」投资评级和4.53令吉的目標价。

地点缺吸引力 云顶大马料不竞标纽新赌场

尽管纽约宪法修正案通过，允许扩展周内的博彩领域，但首阶段仅允许博彩业者在纽约上州（Upstate）设立赌场，安联研究认为，由于地点欠缺吸引力，云顶马来西亚（GENM，4715，主板贸服股）或不会参与赌场执照竞标。

在近期获批的宪法修正案会议中，参议员投票通过博彩业发展案，允许获得执照的博彩业者开设7间赌场，以提振州内经济成长及增加工作机会。

不过，在首阶段博彩业者只能在纽约上州开设4间新商业赌场，在7年后，才能在纽约市设立3间商业赌场。

纽约上州范围包括阿尔巴尼亚地区、卡茨基尔—哈得逊谷地区，以及宾夕法尼亚北部的Sounthern Tier地区，在这些地区开设的首四间赌场将可享有长达7年的独家权。

纽约州上州目前拥有5家由印度博彩业者经营的赌场，另外，在赛马场内也拥有9台自动赌博机。

安联研究分析员指出，尽管这项消息对拓展博彩业有利，但地点仍是博彩业者的最大考量，预计云顶马来西亚不会参与赌场执照竞标。

“在新决策公布后，可以肯定的是，在未来7年，纽约云顶名胜世界将会是纽约皇后区的唯一的赛马赌场（Racino）经营者。”

马银行投行认为，宪法修正案的新发展虽不会冲击纽约云顶名胜世界业务，但在新决策下，纽约云顶名胜世界亦无法转换成为全方位的商业赌场