Friday, July 24, 2015

木股无敌。我个人觉得高了!Harry 不错的分享


现在的美金兑换马币大约是3.81左右,听说是因为Bank Negara在干预才会支撑在3.80左右。不然破掉3.85应该是不难,加上我们的储备金有限,叶伦姐随时会升息。乌鸦嘴说年底来个4.00都有可能,是不是为我们国家的货币感到心疼,感到悲哀呢??而且股市今年可说是跌得不成股形,你的组合是否有起色呢??

其实今年只要你买到跟“木”有关的股票,今年应该是很HOSEI。为什么我会这么说,因为上述10家跟“木”有关的公司今年平均上涨了109.66%。而且排除Evergreen的话,9家公司的平均PE才10.21左右。是否可以先在进场呢??这就见人见智了,因为上述的公司10家都在这2个月里突破历史新高。你敢追高加码吗??要看你自己的胆气了。

只要美金走强,上述公司在8月的业绩报告应该会很不错。所有个人预测以上的10家公司至少会跑到8月底。


http://harryteo.blogspot.com/2015/07/1104-20151010966.html

黃金賭場中出老千的銀行集團


From http://ckfstock.blogspot.com/

西方國際銀行集團為了打壓黃金價格,什麼爛理由都說的出。

Morgan Stanley认为在悲观情形下可能跌至800美元。

它的理由是什麼?

1)中国股市再出现一轮下跌。
(中國股市下跌和金價下跌屁事?)

2)美国启动加息周期。
(這課題唱了一年多了,美國是不會加息的。就算加也是很少且過程緩慢。何況,美國加息,金價下跌,從來沒有歷史根據。)

3)上央行抛售黄金储备。
(我看到的是央行購買黃金,那裡有拋售?講大話的分析報告)


真正會讓金價下跌的原因,這些西方國際銀行家都知道,只是不敢說。

就是它們通過金融衍生產品,短短幾分鐘內拋售不存在的黃金,製造虛假的供應,讓金價下跌。

這才是真正的原因。

金價下跌無關供需,無關市場,純粹是這些西方國際銀行集團在黃金金融賭場中出千。

因為金价重挫引发美国金币购买热潮。政府数据也显示,本月以来的美国鹰金币销量已经创下两年多以来单月最高超过11万盎司,是5月所售21,500盎司的五倍还多为2013年4月以来最高单月水平

一般在投資中,價格下跌會使得市場需求消失,但是黃金卻完全相反,反而使被压抑已久的需求由此迸发。

這反常現象,在於黃金投資者早就看穿經濟外強中乾的真相。

日後,當華爾街交割不出黃金實物時,黃金期貨就再也不能壓制黃金真實的價值了!

Thursday, July 23, 2015

And the all mighty Duitkwspkita Quit with my counter offer!

Latest status on my challenge
klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600080144.jsp
paperplane2..... 

At 2:07pm on 23/7/2015. I hereby declare I decided not to take up any challenge offered by you. It is up to you to quote whether chicken/coward etc as you prefer. Unconditionally, I will not comment anything about you in i3 or any other forums. 

regards, 
duit 


-------------------------------------------------------------------- 
paperplane2....... you may copy it for your evidence in future. I don't mind what you want to laugh at me. I am mindful if my good relationship with others being destroyed. Man talk. I will delete all your personal & private details from my computer. 

please copy it or entire blog as you wish and then inform me. I shall delete everything to return the peaceful environment to i3.

I counter offer duit with 100 points drop in KLCI index by end of Sep2015! He decided not to go ahead! 

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

2015 Stock Pick Challenge

STOCK PICK CHALLENGE _ Results at 30th June 2105 

I am ranking no.24, consider doing ok. My due respect to OTB, now over 80% return YTD. Let's see my portfolio and OTB's. We can learn much from their stock picking.

Stock Name Last PriceChangeSharesMarket ValueAverage CostPer ShareUnrealized Gain%Day Gain%
BJCORP MYR0.400.0015,000 6,000.00 6,241.87 0.416 -241.87 3.87% 0.000.00%
BJCORP-WB MYR0.15-0.00510,000 1,500.00 1,660.50 0.166 -160.50 9.67% -50.003.23%
EDGENTA MYR3.53-0.052,000 7,060.00 5,455.64 2.727 +1,604.36 29.41% -100.001.40%
GSB MYR0.0950.00150,000 14,250.00 14,283.53 0.095 -33.53 0.23% 0.000.00%
JCY MYR0.75-0.0220,000 15,000.00 11,025.30 0.551 +3,974.70 36.05% -400.002.60%
MINTYE MYR1.290.0010,000 12,900.00 11,526.95 1.152 +1,373.05 11.91% 0.000.00%
MSC MYR2.38-0.015,000 11,900.00 12,929.77 2.585 -1,029.77 7.96% -50.000.42%
NYLEX MYR0.54+0.0055,000 2,700.00 2,761.83 0.552 -61.83 2.24% +25.000.93%
PJDEV-WC MYR0.580.005,000 2,900.00 2,686.81 0.537 +213.19 7.93% 0.000.00%
POHUAT MYR2.55+0.1110,000 25,500.00 14,633.98 1.463 +10,866.02 74.25% +1,100.004.51%
SUPERMX MYR2.11+0.025,000 10,550.00 8,570.12 1.714 +1,979.88 23.10% +100.000.96%
TEOSENG MYR1.64+0.044,500 7,380.00 5,505.65 1.223 +1,874.35 34.04% +180.002.50%
TEOSENG-WA MYR0.68+0.015750 510.00 0.00 0.00 +510.00 0.00% +11.252.26%
$CASH3,278.053,278.05 
All time performance121,428.05100,000.00 +21,428.0521.43%  


OTB Portfolio

Stock Name Last PriceChangeSharesMarket ValueAverage CostPer ShareUnrealized Gain%Day Gain%
FAVCO MYR2.75-0.043,600 9,900.00 9,922.87 2.756 -22.87 0.23% -144.001.43%
HEVEA-WB MYR0.825+0.0744,400 36,630.00 9,457.27 0.213 +27,172.73 287.32% +3,108.009.27%
HOMERIZ MYR1.15+0.0117,400 20,010.00 9,998.98 0.574 +10,011.02 100.12% +174.000.88%
HOMERIZ-WA MYR0.61+0.0252,900 1,769.00 0.00 0.00 +1,769.00 0.00% +72.504.27%
IQGROUP MYR2.450.006,300 15,435.00 10,041.03 1.593 +5,393.97 53.72% 0.000.00%
LATITUD MYR6.30-0.062,800 17,640.00 10,244.29 3.658 +7,395.71 72.19% -168.000.94%
NAIM MYR2.35-0.033,300 7,755.00 9,856.79 2.986 -2,101.79 21.32% -99.001.26%
PJDEV-WC MYR0.580.0018,600 10,788.00 9,973.94 0.536 +814.06 8.16% 0.000.00%
POHUAT MYR2.55+0.116,800 17,340.00 9,882.82 1.453 +7,457.18 75.46% +748.004.51%
PRLEXUS MYR2.30-0.019,000 20,700.00 10,734.93 1.192 +9,965.07 92.83% -90.000.43%
VS MYR5.46-0.023,900 21,294.00 9,850.78 2.525 +11,443.22 116.17% -78.000.36%
$CASH1,706.401,706.40 
All time performance180,967.40100,000.00 +80,967.4080.97% 




Below 30 ranking was deleted.....not worth seeing for me

1 Ooi Teik Bee 54.98% (3) (5) (1) (1) (3)
2 CFTrader 43.24% (6) (7) (6) (5) (7)
3 JeevS 42.24% (24) (30) (27) (30) (33)
4 bb55 37.62% (2) (1) (2) (4) (2)
5 Bs1688 37.33% (5) (2) (4) (2) (1)
6 mrk2ca 33.06% (7) (20) (18) (10) (17)
7 JayC 31.15% (45) (9) (11) (12) (13)
8 alexchua 29.73% (11) (18) (15) (18) (24)
9 Icon8888 29.08% (9) (15) (8) (9) (15)
10 tjhldg 26.89% (10) (6) (10) (6) (12)
11 soojinhou 26.07% (8) (8) (5) (14) (8)
12 gohkimhock 25.03% (14) (17) (23) (20) (11)
13 Collin Soo 22.67% (16) (24) (16) (21) (14)
14 jester 22.08% (19) (19) (7) (17) (25)
15 Intell. Investor 21.68% (13) (22) (20) (11) (10)
16 lbkeat 21.11% (4) (4) (3) (3) (6)
17 Firebird2 20.57% (15) (10) (14) (8) (9)
18 Yu Jin 19.36% (20) (16) (22) (41) (35)
19 goldenluck 16.14% (25) (14) (13) (23) (50)
20 YiStock 15.83% (18) (23) (24) (22) (26)
21 SS661M 15.64% (22) (21) (17) (19) (18)
22 valuelurker 15.08% (26) (29) (21) (24) (16)
23 Peter Lee 14.89% (34) (47) (44) (51) (51)
24 paperpalne 14.85% (1) (3) (12) (7) (42)
25 Tee Tom 13.98% (12) (13) (9) (13) (20)
26 爱丽丝 梦幻世界 13.74% (35) (38) (37) (42) (46)
27 WiseEye 12.73% (21) (26) (30) (47) (44)
28 johnkiew 12.71% (33) (35) (29) (28) (22)
29 JENNY6088 12.67% (28) (32) (32) (33) (29)
30 johnny cash 11.68% (52) (53) (53) (50) (39) 

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

A challenge for 3 years time frame turn down by Duit. who started the Challange. Why??

duit's stock pick challenge to paperplane/paperplane2/山下圣人
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/cockypaperplane/80144.jsp

Dear Respected paperplane/paperplane2/山下圣人/2013 Investlah Stock King,
I am writing this to challenge you for stock pick and if I lose in the challenge I will STOP comment you but if you lose please stop condemn any stock in i3. I just cant understand your motive in BTM, SIGN and several counters as you non stop comment "trap" and intentionally try to condemn them. "By the time of writing I am not any investor/fund manager of those mentioned counters".
See my comment prior to the challenge format:
1) 2013 Investlah Stock King

Congrats! You are so wonderful!
 I have many millionaire and billionaire friends but sadly to tell none of them win this "Investlah Stock King" title before. You are amazingly great! If without your BPS promotion I'm still dont know you are the stock king before. Thanks for your BPS publicity.
Actually in 2013 many bought MYEG around RM0.835 and earned all the way to the highest. Do they need to jump out and self proclaimed they are better than the INVESTLAH STOCK KING? If you say YES, then I shall inform Mr Wong Thean Soon because that time he told me the price projection it was just RM0.720. Anyway BIG CONGRATS to you, Mr Stock King!
2) 2014 Investlah Stock Challenge

Paperplane was eliminated in September with the ranking of 24th (See you next year by Laughing Gor). Not your fault indeed because you could not get any insight about ILB's future plan. Must point finger to the management.
3) 2015 Stock Challenge

Paperplane siting in Division B ranked 19th with negative growth of 2.439%. Dont Give Up boy, give fullest support to MSC!

4) Say manage BILLION fund in work place but comment like kindergarden kid just follow paper"instincts". Show professionalism please.



There are so many badmouthing comments from paperplane & paperplane2 but got no time to find his mistakes at this moment.
5) Long term plan : Actively "Kaki Kong Kaki Song" about the Investlah Stock King - 2013

Hello boy, no one will ctiric or comment your humble dividend income and YTD share investment performance but please do not come over to condemn people's counter without constructive analyzed view.
Bear in mind that there are many know your work place, company and your info. If you are still cocky here then I dare not to think what happen to you next.
For Investlah Stock King 2013 devotee,
you may follow him at :
1) http://networkingcapital.blogspot.com/
2) http://car.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=3243251
3) http://mymalaysiainvesment.blogspot.com/
4) private photo, address and company info will be provided on request only
Stock Pick Challenge
Since you act like an expert in the forum and walking tall with  your N-year stock king crown, hence,  I believe you will not decline the challenge from a stock market newbie like me. If you are so great in stock pick how about we challenge stocks with two have potential to increase and another two's share price will decrease within the period.
A real expert must know how to BUY - potential growth stocks and to SELL- potentially overvalued/financial problem/shorttcomings stocks. In the end we will just count on the total percentage.

You may suggest a new challenge period if the above suggested does not favorable to you. We are ALLOWED to influence/manipulate/affect stock price with whatsoever's action from the stock market.
As you know I am just a beginner in the stock market I hope you dont find excuse like "waste my time to entertain newbie" or "you are dont qualified to challenge me Investlah Stock King -2013" to push away this challenge!
Your challenger,
duitKWSPkita

Sunday, July 5, 2015

除了巴菲特还有Peter Cundill,价值投资的佼佼者

巴菲特的书少说也有40本,问题是他除了每年发表Bershire Hathaway致股东的信、还有几篇演讲稿,他本身没有著书立作教人投资股票。
但是,投资不是竞赛。如果你要打羽球你一定要学林丹,不能学李宗伟,因为比赛的最终目的是要分出胜负,看谁是最强的。
大多数人投资的目的只是要致富,使生活过得轻松愉快罢了,不是要争做第一名,所以你也不是非学巴菲特,只要是能够在股市里致富成功的人,都可以是你的模仿对象。
当我们要学习、模仿,自然是越接近本尊越好。那么多人想跟巴菲特学一套,可是他到现在都不肯写一本教人投资的书,整天就只会抛他的口头禅:
“别人贪婪我恐惧;别人恐惧我贪婪。”
大佬,你可以告诉我Timing嘛,在我看来市场时时都恐惧,时时都贪婪。
“守则一、不要亏钱;守则二、永远不要忘记守则一。”
巴菲特放屁果然是香的。
“你要滑向冰球会溜到之处,然后准备挥杆。”
好像是偷鸡窝。
所以今天我就要介绍大家一个大家都可以模仿、大家都可以学习的成功投资者。

彼得·昆迪 (Peter Cundill)
彼得·昆迪,加拿大人,毕业于加拿大麦吉尔大学会计系,一生奉行格雷汉姆投资法。
当欧美市场已经没有太多净资产值股的机会的时候,他便出访俄罗斯、日本甚至是非洲来寻找投资机会。他算是最早期走向国际投资的基金经理,
同时他也热爱长跑和登山,每到一个国家总是要跑上一两回。
在1974年,昆迪收购单位价格由六块跌至两块“All-Canadian”著名创投基金,,并改名为昆迪价值基金。该基金从1974年的一千万美元一直滚到2006年的两亿美元。
你若在1974年投资昆迪价值基金一万块,收藏到2007年可增值超过一百万元,开翻超过100倍,三十三年内一共平均增长15%。
绰号“光头佬”的约翰·邓普顿爵士(Sir John Templeton)重量级基金经理,投资五百万美元于昆迪的基金,成为该基金的第一个投资者
昆迪一向强调用四毛来买价值一块钱的股票,并成为了他的基金的口号。
昆迪为人津津乐道的成功投资有全球知名的奢华珠宝和银饰商蒂芙尼公司 (Tiffany & Co)。七十年代,美国经济不景,市场认为蒂芙尼公司的业绩会变差,理据是该公司曾在三十年代美国经济大萧条连续数年亏钱,且奢侈品不是时尚或可负担商品,认为这时候也会重演当年的亏损。
昆迪分析蒂芙尼公司就是从净资产开始,该公司最值钱的金丝雀颜色,128.5克拉的蒂芙尼钻石,在账面上这块钻石记账仅一美元,然而外头有买家肯出价二百万美元购买该钻石。
既然有人出那么高的价钱,证明钻石在当时仍有不错的行情,绝不能拿三十年代的经济大萧条相比。尽管经济不景,蒂芙尼公司的营业额和营利稳定成长,净收入于1974年突破一百万美元大关。
当时蒂芙尼公司的股价价位远低于账面值十块半美元,昆迪认为当时的股价远远低于该公司的清盘价值。昆迪以平均每股八元的价格累计票数。一年内,他以十九美元完全脱售该公司的股份。
他无数的成功投资让他在2001年获颁“分析师最佳成就奖之有史以来最佳基金经理”的投资界最高荣誉。
昆迪于2011年病逝,享年72岁。
投资传记有《There’s always something to do: the Peter Cundill investment approach》
这本是昆迪的投资日记,里面详细的记载了他的股票实战经验,也揭露了他的心路历程,让我们了解到股神也是人,股神面对亏损也会感到恐惧,有时也会感到迷惑。

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

My stock selection criteria and strategy - Ooi Teik Bee

Dear valued readers,
This posting is not to challenge KC Chongnz, it is also not to compete for business with KC Chongnz. If you think KC Chongnz's strategy on FA is very good, go ahead and learn from him. I want to stress that I had spent a lot of money to learn FA, at last I learn most of my FA knowledge from him. I will continue to say that he is the best FA sifu here, the best of the best FA teacher. There is no question about it honestly. Thank you.
I do not want readers here to mistaken that I am very arrogant, my intention to post this article here is to share my knowledge how to pick the stock according to my methods to win big in stock market. I had tried it for last 3 years, the results were very good as shown below :-
How is my performance in I3investor.com ?
 
Please check my track records in I3investor.com. Below is the summary :
a. I made 57.5% gain in 1H 2013 (1H competition)
b. I made 46% gain in 4 months (2H competition)
c. My 2014 selections, made 61% gain within 12 months
d. My 2015 selections, made 59% gain within 5 months
Please check the aforesaid records in I3investor.com.
 
I also want to clarify that I did not say "FA is not good", I try to say that you want to win big in KLSE, you need more than just FA. Below is my clarification.
You can check with my subscribers, I will not recommend any stock to buy without fundamental. 
I also will not buy very good FA stock if the stock is a down trending stock. Hence I focus more on TA. 
FA is not my sole stock selection criteria. 

I do not want people here to twist my facts. 
To win big in stock market, FA alone is not good enough. You need a combination of market psychology, TA, FA and sectors to focus. 
I also use FA to invest, but it contribute only 25% of my total consideration. I focus more on TA. 
If FA is very good, technical chart is a down trending stock, I will not buy this stock even the margin of safety is very high. 
I am not a long term investor, I want high growth stock so that my ROI is very high in every year. 
My stock selection criteria
I select the stock based on the following criteria :-
  1. Breakout chart - TA
  2. Up trending stock - TA
  3. Undervalued stock - FA
  4. Growth stock -FA
  5. FA selection criteria
  6. a. EBIT growth > 10%
  7. b. EPS growth > 10%
  8. c. PER < 10
  9. d. EV/EBIT < 8
  10. e. Margin of safety > 30%
  11. f. Potential gain > 30%
The stock passed my stock selection criteria must passed items 1 and 2 first, otherwise, no deal. I want a breakout chart stock so that I do not need to keep this stock for very long time frame. Once the major resistance is broken, the stock price will skyrocket up very fast. Please note that I am not a long term investor, hence I want the price to move up very fast in short term.
 
My investment strategy
  1. TA comes first
  2. FA comes second
  3. Sector to focus 
  4. Market psychology
I do not use FA alone for my investment strategy, I use the combination of the above 4 strategies.
 
Sector to focus
It is no point that the FA is very good, the stock is in wrong sector. You must select the sectors that outperform the market.
According to KLSE indexes, the most bullish indexes are Technology Index and Ind/Prod Index. These 2 indexes are super bullish (please read my Weekly Market Outlook Report attached). We should focus on these 2 sectors. This is the reason why all my recommended stocks moved up despite a down market in KLSE.
The present scenario in KLSE and Malaysian economy as a whole, RM is very Weak and USD is very Strong. It favours Export sector or sale in USD stocks. You want to win big, you need to buy these Export stocks. FA is also very important here, it must be undervalued and high growth stocks that passed my FA stock selection criteria.
 
Market psychology
I need to study the chart to look for characteristic of the stock movement pattern. Some stocks move up very fast after consolidate near the support level. Some stocks move up very fast after breaking resistance. We should follow the trend in order to win big.
I always prefer to buy when everyone is fearful so that I can get good bargain. I like to sell when market is super bullish with high volume so that I can sell at very good price. You need to follow this type of strategy to maximise your profit.
 
My Golden rule
  • The company must make more profit (EBIT or Net Profit) in current year than last year (Growth).
  • Avoid if the current year result is worse than the previous year.
  • Avoid this stock if next 2 Quarter results do not show growth.
You can do it yourself
 
I had spelled out my stock selection criteria and strategy, you can try it yourself and please check out your result. I will be very happy if you can win big and make a lot of money.
 
If you do not have confidence to do it, you can attend my training course to learn these special skills.
 
Do you want to learn this investment skill ?
I provide the following services online for a small fee of RM 960.00 per year. 
  • I teach you TA lessons online.
  • I teach you FA lessons online.
  • I teach you market psychology.
  • I provide you a weekly market outlook report (KLSE + Worldwide market outlook)
  • I provide you a list of "KLSE stocks to watch".
  • I whatsapp you when there is a stock to buy or to sell.
If you are interested, please contact me @ tbooifx@gmail.com.
Enclosed is a copy of my "KLSE stocks to watch from 8/6/2015 to 12/6/2015". You can notice that most of the stock prices of my recommended stocks are moving up despite a weak market sentiment in KLSE.
Thank you.
Ooi
Dear valued clients,
 
I had started FA lessons in May 2015. I teach you to read my standard FA template. I cover Profit and Loss, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statements.
We will revise 1 TA lesson every week.
 
Special note:
Please note that this article is restricted for private reading only, you are not allowed to post it or reproduce it on any public forum or media. 
 
Oversea markets
  • All Asian markets are bearish - Nikkei (Japan) and SSE (China) are bullish. 
  • USA markets are bearish, however Nasdaq is bullish.
  • All European markets are bearish.
Bullish is defined as the index must crossed 20 Days EMA.
 
Super bullish means index must cross 200 days SMA. 
 
KLSE Index
The below KLSE indexes are bullish and Super bullish. 
  • Technology
  • Ind/Prod
Bullish is defined as the index must crossed 20 Days EMA.
 
Super bullish means index must cross 200 days SMA. 
 
The below KLSE indexes are still above 200 days MA. 
  • Consumer
Bull market is defined as the index must cross 200 Days SMA.
 
Strategy
  • KLSE is still bearish except the Technology and Ind/Prod Indexes are bullish.
  • My strategy is not suitable for short term trading or contra, it is suitable to Buy and Hold for 3 to 6 months.
  • My strategy is TA comes first, FA comes second. I must adhere to this rule all the times.
  • All stocks in my watch list must be very good in Fundamental.
  • Focus on Technology and Ind/Prod stocks.
Stocks to watch
 
The stock marked red colour are my favourite stocks.
 
StockBreakoutTarget priceGain %Stop loss
KESM 3.69 7.18 95% 3.41
ECS 1.68 2.46 46% 1.57
Geshen 0.73 1.05 44% 0.63
Hevea-WB 2.19 3.00 37% 1.99
VS Ind 4.33 5.25 21% 3.99
 
 
The price must cross 20 Days EMA.
Buy on Breakout - In a bullish market, the price breaks out from major resistance and breaks new high.
Buy on Weakness - It means the price had broken up in a bullish market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Support - In a down trend or correction market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Weakness - It means the price had broken up in a bullish market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
Buy on Support - In a down trend or correction market, it retraces to support level. Buy 1 bid above support.
 
Buy on weakness
 
StockSupportTarget priceGain %Stop loss
LCTH 0.495 0.76 54% 0.41
Frontkn 0.23 0.32 39% 0.18
Penta 0.69 0.94 36% 0.60
       
 
Recommendation
  • According to KLSE Indexes, KLSE is still bearish. I prefer to let market drops and we buy on weakness. I believe KLSE is almost bottom before the end of June 2015.
  • I believe Technology and Semicon stocks had started their up trending cycle again, please focus on them. 
  • Penta, LCTH, Frontkn and KESM are my favourite technology stocks. I want to buy on weakness. They are value for money. I intend to buy them and hold for 6 months to a year. 
  • All export stocks are coming back because of weakening of RM against USD. 
  • There is a cut loss in the recommended stocks, please adhere to it strictly. I will not inform you again.
Note : 
  • Please note that this article is restricted for private reading only, you are not allowed to post it or reproduce it on any public forum or media.
  • Many valued clients here are subscribers of my article, it is my job to ensure that my article is value for money. Hence I have to ensure that you win consistently in KLSE.
  • Please help not to share this information with others. Please note that I need to hire people to do FA. I need to get other valued members to subscribe for my articles at 960.00 per year. 
  • 寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
Thank you.
Ooi

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

[转贴] 《冷眼魔力》- 冷眼前辈持有的其中10家“牛股”,2015年平均涨幅60.64%!- Harryt30

记得当初我刚刚步入股市的时候,我根本不认识谁是冷眼。一直到阅读了好多位前辈的的投资Blog,我才知道了冷眼大师的存在。2013年我买了冷眼前辈的两本书,《三十年股票投资心得》以及《冷眼股票投资正道》。读完之后才发现自己在投资的第一年真的是走了许多弯路,还好醒觉的时候还不算太晚。现在我的选股法则就是买赚钱,派股息,盈利进步,前景亮眼的公司。当然偶尔也会“投机”一些基本面非常吸引人的优质股过过Trading的瘾。

话说我在2014年10月在Ali兄的Blog看到了他分享冷眼前辈的投资组合,我才知道冷眼这位大马股市的“泰山北斗”买进了什么股。虽然这不是冷眼前辈的所有持股,但是有这样的指标供我们这些散户参观考已经是非常可贵了。而且大家应该都听过《冷眼效应》,一些冷眼前辈提到或者买进的股票都回上涨。你们当中有谁会跟冷眼前辈的风呢??


冷眼前辈的部分持股其实可以在Cimb itrade的stock screener里找到,而我今天所用的的资料来源全部来在Ali Investment,Ali Blog我用自己的Excel Template筛选出冷眼前辈持有股中表现比较出色的10家“牛”股,看看大马“巴菲特”的选股方式跟我们这些散户之间的差别。话说在前头,冷眼前辈的某些持股也有表现欠佳的,而我今天分享的当然是人人爱看的赚钱股啦。
浅谈冷眼前辈其中10家持股:

  • 看看以上的10家公司,2015年平均的涨幅高达60.64%。而且这是在大盘不乐观下的表现,可见这个组合的潜能是多么的惊人。假设KLCI指数在年底可以稳在1,800点以上,上面组合的平均return突破100%也是有可能的。
  • 去年大盘指数下跌接近5%,可是上图的10家公司只有PANSAR是下跌的,其余9家都有不同幅度的涨幅。2014年平均涨幅44.80%。
  • 2013年暂时是这3年来股市表现最好的一年,当时KLCI指数上涨了10%。所以以上10家公司的平均涨幅有93.66%也不出奇。
  • 2012年是大型股的一年,所以小型股的表现差强人意,平均涨幅只有18.85%。因此才有了2013年中小型股爆发的热潮。
  • HEVEA今年可说是独领风骚,今天突破历史新高,全年的涨幅为113.86%.难能可贵的是PE暂时才9.49,低于10。只要美金继续走强,HEVEA的业绩盈利在下个季度有望继续走高,股价也会跟着水涨船高。
  • PRLEXUS也是一家出口公司,去年派发好红股,盈利也不错,今年的涨幅就有90.76%。以现在这种趋势来看,出口股还是会继续主导市场的。
  • SKPRES是我不熟悉的一家公司,但是今年涨幅也有76.56%。主要可能是因为收购TECNIC的以及获得DYSON无线吸尘器合约的利害因素所致。
  • HOMERITZ, LATITUD和POHUAT3支家具股的涨幅都超过50%,冷眼前辈几乎扫完家具股,至于LIIHEN我就不清楚了。
  • SCGM去年的涨幅就非常的惊人,今年5个月多涨了64.58%。很好奇冷眼前辈什么时候会选择套利。
  • ECS是今年奇军突起的科技股,过去4年股价的表现都平平无奇,今年却上涨了47.46%. 主要是因为获得中国小米委任为大马分销商,加上盈利突飞猛进,股价不涨也难。
  • PANSAR 是因为看到冷眼前辈组合才认识的股票,最新一季的盈利跟去年同期相比上涨了149.21%。难道冷眼前辈能预知未来??我猜测是他在Annual report里读到了一些利好消息,所以才买进PANSAR。高人就是不一样。:P
  • GADANG是冷眼前辈组合里少有的建筑股,现在PE为7.32。我认为是严重被低估的,所以我上个月也买进了不少。今年的涨幅是8.89%,算是不好不坏。但是我相信长期还是会有看头的,所以静观其变。
 
总结:
如果仔细一看,上述10家公司的平均PE是12.74。4家超过10以及6家低于10。假设排出PE最高的SKPRES(28.9)以及SCGM(19.53),剩余8家公司的平均PE还是低于10的。所以我也跟着这套选股方式,尽量寻找PE低于10的潜质好股。不过最近风雨欲来,大家还是要小心为妙,步步为营吧。
 
 
*我在RM1.80的时候把TAMBUN给砍光了,最近又看到冷眼前辈也套利离场。不知道散户们看了会不会惶恐并跟着撤离呢??TAMBUN股价现在是RM1.72,会不会继续探底呢?看着吧。
 
 
 
Harryt30
16.40p.m.
2015.06.08
 
http://harryteo.blogspot.com/2015/06/1072-1020156064.html

Saturday, May 30, 2015

2015年10家平均上涨159.24%的牛股,100中1的机率!

From:http://harryteo.blogspot.com/2015/05/1058-201510159241001.html

股市起起落落是很平常的事情,之前连续3天下跌已经出现了超卖的现象。所以今天大盘KLCI指数虽然下跌了3.31点,但是马股还是有484支上升股以及318下跌股。话说早上我在自己的Facebook也仙家了一番,今天神奇地应验了大盘跌, 小股却上。嘿嘿。。明天我就不知道了, 希望1MDB的课题可以快快SETTLE. 马股跑了5个月, 跟大家分享10家超级牛股。
开番股吹水分析:

  • 上述的10家股平局上涨了159.24%,其中7家的涨幅超过100%。马股大约900多家公司, 其实买100家也许可以中1家。而且上涨100%以上的股可能已经有20家也说不定。买到这样的股药 看运气, 技术以及眼光咯。嘿嘿。。
  • 其中4家是科技仙股, 可见马来西亚股市几喜欢炒仙股。因为小型股比较容易炒, 昨天的JHM就是一个例子。我亲眼看到JHM从29仙飞到43仙。夸张到。。。。
  • 还好我家MITRA还算是争气, 今年也上涨了95.9%.上述的图表我忘记把股价从1.88 改成1.92.不好意思。
  • 现在我希望还有一轮涨幅,那么我就可以出货。因为我跟我师父都觉得5 - 6月要保留多些现金。最好可以6 share 4 cash.共勉之。

Monday, April 6, 2015

一带一路与亚投行的冷思考●洪文杰

在博鳌亚洲论坛期间,备受关注的“一带一路”顶层设计如期发布。
3月28日,中国国家发改委、外交部、商务部联合印发《推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动》,除了明确定义与定位“一带一路”外,也介绍了中国各地方的开放态势,以及中国政府为此进行的一系列准备。
同时,截至3月31日,有意愿参与中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB,亚投行)的国家已扩大至46个国家和地区,遍布亚洲、非洲、欧洲、南美洲及大洋洲。
其中,意向创始成员国有30个,还有16个国家和地区提出了申请。
“一带一路”与亚投行的推出,无论未来的发展走向如何,都将会留在历史重要的一页。
从中国的角度而言,推出“一带一路”的发展战略,其目的在于实现“中国梦”,即中国和平崛起,友好对待周边国家的举措。
而亚投行的推动,则反映出中国政府对国际社会主动释出的善意与邀约。
单看亚投行在截止日期前的表现,接获46个来自5大洲的国家表态参与,其善意邀约的收效看似良好,甚至可说超越政府与市场的预期。
亚投行是一带一路关键
可以这么理解,“一带一路”是中国未来数年战略发展的大框架,而亚投行的设立,则是这战略模式下的一步重要的棋子。
“丝绸之路经济带”的发展,乃试图透过新疆进入中亚国家,逐步拓展至欧洲市场,以重新启动古丝路的活力。
而“21世界海上丝绸之路”,则借由沿海城市,通过东南亚,转入南亚、非洲,乃至欧洲国家,两条线路最终让亚洲、非洲与欧洲形成一个有机的连接。
这样的一种战略思路,则自然需要充足的金融“弹药”,初始资本达1000亿美元(3660亿令吉)的亚投行设立无异于此,400亿美元(1464亿连接口)丝路基金的诞生亦复如是,甚至筹备中的金砖国家银行都是当中的关键利器。
同时,中国国有银行机构也为“一带一路”的项目建设,准备了多达8000亿美元(2.92兆令吉)的金融资源。
中国能运作亚投行?
看似完美的开局,是否意味着中国未来战略的发展就一帆风顺呢?
地缘政治与国际形势的变化是其一,但更为关键的是,中国是否有足够的能力与经验去运作一个多边的金融机构,以及同时间应对陆路与海路这两条线上的众多国家。
至少目前而言,亚投行有46个创始成员国,而“一带一路”上的沿线国家则多达64个。
“一带一路”的大框架,无疑就是政府对政府的战略思路,即与沿线国家的政府进行共同商讨与建设的发展战略。
然而,在沿线范围内众多是奉行民主制度的国家中,类似政府对政府的战略模式,很可能就会从机遇转变成挑战。尤其当相关政策的落实,只让政府层面上获益,但实际不利惠人民与当地市场时。
随手拈来,缅甸、泰国、越南,乃至斯里兰卡与墨西哥等,都曾有过中国的重大投资项目因受到抵制而被叫停,或政局变化而突然喊停的纪录。
基建投资成效不定
其次,资金投放的成效问题。中国推动的“一带一路”,乃以释出大量的基础设施投资建设项目为主。但是,大量的基础设施投资会消耗掉大量的资本。
根据安邦咨询(ANBOUND)的跟踪研究显示,自2002年起至2014年,美国已对阿富汗提供了1040亿美元的援助,以支持数百个阿富汗发展项目,但效果却很糟糕。
其中的实例包括,阿富汗收到76亿美元(278亿令吉)禁毒专项资金,但近三年来阿富汗鸦片产量却逐步上升,并达到历史最高水准。
美国和欧盟斥资30亿美元(109.8亿净利)建设阿富汗员警队伍,但如今仍有5万4000名“幽灵员警”每月领工资,却不见人影;市场和超市中售卖大量过期货物等等。
类似事件的发生,其原因在于阿富汗政府的管理低效与腐败。
上述两个层面实际上是相连的,也是一个问题的两面。
政府与政府的协商,忽略了市场与人民的利益,自然会引发民间的反弹。
而政府投放的项目,若没有民间的参与,以及执行力的低效,都会对投资效益产生负面的影响。
大马可自荐当支点
再回到地缘政治与国际形势的层面。之前的撰文也曾经提及,伊斯兰国(IS)恐怖主义是中东与中亚地区的地缘政治风险,而南海问题则是东南亚方面的风险。
两者若未能取得改善,则再多的资金与战略都无法取得“通行证”,反之还会引发负面效果,如IS延伸至中国境内等。
更重要的因素是,沿线发展的64个国家,中国可不能连横对待,当务之急,还是需要在不同区域上,寻找一个合适的支点国家,作为该区域范围的主要协调国。
这一支点国家,必须是政治相对稳定、有经济发展潜力,且愿意与中国合作与交流的国家。
可以看到的是,在东南亚这一区块中,马来西亚是相对有能力与意愿去“毛遂自荐”担任这支点国家的。
毕竟,今年担任东盟轮值主席国的大马,除了与中国的经贸关系良好以外,也属于政治相对稳定的国家,尽管近期面对着伊斯兰刑事法、某机构债务风波等问题。
同时,避免中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的局势误判,通晓东盟市场以及文化的大马,也可成为相关的协调国家,为中国未来的投资趋势进行研究分析与解围。
中国色彩浓厚
总的来说,“一带一路”顶层设计展示了中国领导人重建丝绸之路的战略构想,但这个战略规划有着比较强烈的输出中国经验的色彩。
看着似乎是大手笔,但实际与世界产业新潮流有些格格不入,对“一带一路”各国的国情也是一种挑战,实现起来难度很大。
这一点,是周边国家积极响应中国后,必须深思的事情;即不是等待中国未来的资金投入,而是如何协助带动区域的交流,拓展一个和平的世界观。
(安邦是一家马中经济与政策智库,在北京和吉隆坡设有研究中心。欢迎读者提出对本文意见:malaysia@anbound.com